CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

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CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.

Global Overview

Outlook for This Month February 2023

Conflict Risk Alerts

Resolution Opportunities

Trends for Last Month January 2023

Improved Situations

CrisisWatch warns of one conflict risk alert in February.

  • Hundreds of Sudan-based rebels entered the Central African Republic, fuelling fears of large-scale fighting and regional destabilisation. 

Our monthly conflict tracker highlights eight deteriorations in January.

  • A Canadian peace initiative to end the brutal conflict between Cameroon’s government and several Anglophone separatist groups suffered setbacks as Yaoundé denied giving any country a mandate to facilitate negotiations.
     
  • Already high tensions between Rwanda and DR Congo ratcheted up after the Rwandan military shot at a Congolese fighter jet they say violated Rwandan airspace.
     
  • In Pakistan, a suicide bombing claimed by the Pakistani Taliban killed scores in Peshawar city, as the group continued high-frequency attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.
     
  • Days after Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva’s inauguration as Brazil’s president, supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro stormed government buildings in the country’s capital, demanding a military coup to reinstate him to power.
     
  • Deadly violence escalated in Israel-Palestine as Israeli forces killed dozens of Palestinians in the West Bank and a Palestinian shooter killed seven Israelis in Jerusalem.

We also assess an improved situation in Ethiopia, where the Tigray People’s Liberation Front began surrendering heavy weapons to federal forces, fulfilling a key clause of the November peace deal. Within days, Eritrea withdrew its troops from most major cities in Tigray. 

Aside from the dozens of conflict situations we usually assess, we tracked notable developments in January in Benin, Bolivia, Brazil, Eswatini, Peru, Rwanda and Togo

CrisisWatch Digests

Our CrisisWatch Digests offer a monthly one-page snapshot of conflict-related country trends in a clear, accessible format, using a map of the region to pinpoint developments.

For our most recent CrisisWatch Digests, please follow these links for EthiopiaLebanon and Somalia.

Latest Updates

Middle East & North Africa

Tunisia

Second round of parliamentary polls recorded low turnout as judicial crackdown on opposition leaders and former political officials intensified, and country faced risk of payment default.

Opposition and civil society mobilised before second round of legislative elections. On 12th anniversary of former President Ben Ali’s departure, thousands 14 Jan rallied in capital Tunis against President Saïed’s power grab and deteriorating economic conditions. Powerful labour union UGTT 19 Jan announced it had started consultations with civil society groups including Tunisian Human Rights League, Bar Association and Tunisian Forum for Economic and Social Rights to work on national initiative to “save the country from the crisis and put it back on democratic tracks”. Second round of parliamentary elections held 29 Jan with 11.3% turnout, as low as in first round of voting in Dec. Opposition coalition National Salvation Front leader Ahmed Nejib Chebbi same day urged united front against Saïed.

Legal repression of dissent intensified. Justice Minister Leila Jaffel early Jan filed complaint against opposition figure and lawyer Ayachi Hammami under Sept 2022 decree criminalising spreading “false information and rumours” online. Judiciary 9 Jan froze bank accounts of at least 100 people close to Islamist-inspired An-Nahda party on charges of money laundering. Tunis Court 17 Jan sentenced Saïed’s former chief of staff, Nadia Akacha, to 14 month-imprisonment in absentia for criticising Saïed in leaked audio recordings.

Country faced payment default. Ratings agency Moody’s 28 Jan cut Tunisia’s long-term foreign-currency and local-currency issuer ratings to Caa2 from Caa1 and changed outlook to negative. As shortages of many commodities, notably gasoline, medicines and daily products, continued, International Monetary Fund did not reschedule board meeting initially planned for Dec to approve new loan program for Tunisia, meaning country risks payment default in March or April 2023.

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