After four and a half years of concerted efforts by the international community, significant numbers of minority refugees are returning spontaneously to areas of Bosnia controlled by heretofore hostile ethnic majorities. This provides an opportunity to reverse wartime ethnic cleansing and make substantial progress toward achieving a core goal of the international community and the Dayton Peace Agreement. The requirement for modestly increased reconstruction and security assistance to facilitate this process, however, poses a challenge for governments and international aid and security organisations, many of which are seeking to wind down their Bosnia commitments. Absent such international community support and increased Bosnian government co-operation, the ceiling for returns may be low, and could jeopardise the success of current and future return efforts.

In the first four months of 2000, the number of minority refugees returning to their pre-war homes without targeted assistance from the international community has increased nearly four-fold over 1999 levels, to 12,579. The reasons for the increase in returns include refugee impatience, a change in the psychology of the majority and minority populations, Bosnian government policies, and increased international community willingness to use the powers vested in the Office of the High Representative to remove obstructionist officials and implement property laws.

With many potential spontaneous returnees waiting to see the success of current efforts, numbers are likely to increase significantly in June and July, traditionally the peak months for return. Many of these returns are occurring in the previously impenetrable hard-core Serb nationalist heartland of eastern Republika Srpska. In addition to Bosniaks, both Serbs and Croats are also returning to their pre-war homes, challenging assumptions about the political appeal of pro-partition policies and ethnic separatism.

With its efforts in Bosnia bearing fruit, the international community needs to improve its capability to support these long-awaited returns through reconstruction assistance and security, while the Bosnian government must focus on self-sustainability. Lack of donor support for reconstruction and other infrastructure projects would compel many returnees to de-mine and de-booby-trap their own homes, and reconstruct their homes and schools, roads, water, sewage and electrical systems from their own limited or non-existent funds. Although the security situation is improving gradually, continued attacks on minority returnees have underlined SFOR's uneven record in providing security for returnees. The Bosnian government must accept primary responsibility for overcoming its failure to implement economic reform measures that could make returns self-sustaining through job creation and agricultural programs.

Despite pledges of new money from the Stability Pact, available donor aid may be sufficient to support reconstruction in only 10 per cent of the spontaneous returns to date, with heavier requirements looming this summer. Just when refugee returns are beginning to increase, major donors, such as the European Union, lag far behind – in some cases years – in the expenditure of pledged aid. To date, only the U.S. and a few smaller bilateral donors, such as The Netherlands, have proven able to target aid rapidly and effectively at needed areas. As a result, some refugees who returned to their homes two years ago are still waiting for assistance to reconstruct their homes and provide electricity and running water.

The international community and Bosnian government must quickly take advantage of this window of opportunity. Successful support of this year's refugee returns will encourage other refugees to return during the course of the next 18 months. This can provide a platform for moving to the next phase of Dayton implementation and, by demonstrating progress in an area that affects neighbouring Croatia and Serbia, set the stage for greater regional stability. Success in expanding minority refugee returns will bring the international community significantly closer to succeeding in its mission in Bosnia and achieving its broader regional goals.

Sarajevo/Washington/Brussels, 30 May 2000