Q&A

An early February incursion by the Union of Resistance Forces (UFR) into Chad from Libya was halted by French air strikes, conducted in coordination with the Chadian army. This most severe security threat for several years highlights the weakness of the country and President Idriss Déby’s rule.

Bucking the U.S. and several large and influential Latin American states, Mexico has not recognised Juan Guaidó’s claim on Venezuela’s presidency, and has instead argued for negotiations to end the country’s crisis. As Crisis Group’s Senior Mexico Analyst Falko Ernst explains, this position is rooted in a new Mexican foreign policy doctrine.

Divergiendo de los Estados Unidos y de los demás estados latinoamericanos influyentes, México no ha reconocido la proclamación de Juan Guaidó como presidente de Venezuela y, en cambio, ha abogado por negociaciones para poner fin a la crisis del país. Como lo explica el analista senior de Crisis Group, Falko Ernst, esta posición está arraigada en una nueva doctrina de política exterior mexicana.

Talks with the Taliban in the Qatari capital Doha have raised hopes that the U.S. could end its involvement in Afghanistan’s war. Our Asia Program Director Laurel Miller and Afghanistan analysts Borhan Osman and Graeme Smith break down what was achieved and what remains unresolved.

The Venezuelan National Assembly’s chairman, Juan Guaidó, has declared himself interim president, with the support of several foreign governments. Unless the Venezuelan military backs his move, it is unlikely to topple incumbent President Nicolás Maduro and could unleash greater repression and even outside military intervention.

El presidente de la Asamblea Nacional de Venezuela, Juan Guaidó, se ha declarado presidente interino con el apoyo de varios gobiernos extranjeros. A menos que el ejército venezolano respalde su movimiento, es poco probable que derroque al presidente en ejercicio Nicolás Maduro y podría desencadenar una mayor represión e incluso una intervención militar externa.

After Bogotá’s deadliest bombing since 2003, the government is likely to crack down hard on Colombia’s last guerrilla group, the ELN. In this Q&A, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Colombia Kyle Johnson says any new military campaign should distinguish between ELN factions and is unlikely to inflict a lasting defeat on the rebels.

The Zimbabwean government’s decision to hike fuel prices has sparked fierce opposition. In this Q&A, Crisis Group’s Senior Consultant Piers Pigou explains how economic hardship is driving ordinary citizens to unprecedented acts of resistance.

On 17 December, the UN announced a ceasefire in the contested governorate of Hodeida. Thus far, after some initial wobbling, it has held. In this Q&A, Crisis Group’s senior Yemen analyst Peter Salisbury unpacks the ceasefire and assesses its prospects.

Preliminary peace consultations on Yemen are scheduled to start in Stockholm on 6 December. This is the second attempt in three months to jump-start talks. Crisis Group consultant Peter Salisbury explains why the Sweden talks are so important and what could go wrong.

On 1 December, Andrés Manuel López Obrador will assume Mexico’s presidency. He won pledging to end a drug war that has killed tens of thousands. But, as Crisis Group’s Mexico Senior Analyst Falko Ernst argues, he faces formidable challenges that will make it hard for him to uphold his promises.

El 1 de diciembre, Andrés Manuel López Obrador asumirá la presidencia de México. Él ganó prometiendo poner fin a la guerra contra las drogas que ha cobrado la vida de decenas de miles de personas. Pero como argumenta Falko Ernst, analista senior de Crisis Group en México, enfrenta enormes desafíos.  

Dead bodies are appearing across the Orinoco river basin of southern Venezuela. In this Q&A, Crisis Group consultant Bram Ebus explains how the killings are linked by jostling among criminals, guerrillas and soldiers for mineral wealth amid the country’s wider socio-economic meltdown.

Cadáveres están apareciendo a lo largo de la cuenca del Río Orinoco en el sur de Venezuela. En estas preguntas y respuestas, el consultor de Crisis Group Bram Ebus, explica cómo los asesinatos están conectados debido a las pugnas entre grupos criminales, guerrilleros y soldados por la riqueza mineral en medio de la mayor crisis socioeconómica del país.

Cameroon went to the polls on 7 October amid several crises, notably the conflict between the government and Anglophone separatists. Crisis Group’s expert Hans De Marie Heungoup, in Cameroon during the vote, says it has compounded the country’s problems but also offered reason for hope.

Le Cameroun s’est rendu aux urnes le 7 octobre, dans un contexte marqué par plusieurs crises, notamment le conflit entre le gouvernement et les séparatistes anglophones. Selon l’analyste de Crisis Group Hans De Marie Heungoup, présent au Cameroun lors de l’élection, le scrutin a aggravé les problèmes du pays mais a aussi donné des raisons d’espérer.

A 29 October suicide bombing in the heart of Tunis dealt a blow to much-improved security since the last violent jihadist attacks in 2015-16. In this Q&A, our Senior Analyst for Tunisia Michael B. Ayari says it has also hammered a new wedge into Islamist-secularist political divides.

L’attentat-suicide perpétré le 29 octobre au cœur de Tunis marque un coup d’arrêt à l’amélioration du contexte sécuritaire depuis les dernières attaques jihadistes de 2015-2016. Dans cette série de questions-réponses, notre analyste principal pour la Tunisie, Michael B. Ayari, souligne que cette attaque renforce également les divisions entre islamistes et séculiers.

The Taliban have claimed the assassination of an influential Afghan police chief and another official in an attack that narrowly missed the head of U.S. forces. Senior Analyst Borhan Osman and Consultant Graeme Smith explain the repercussions for political stability in southern Afghanistan.

The fallout continues to settle after Iraqi Kurdistan’s fraught independence referendum one year ago. In this Q&A, our Iraq Senior Adviser Maria Fantappie surveys the political landscape ahead of the first regional legislative elections since the plebiscite.

The UN special envoy to Yemen has invited the principal parties in the country’s civil war to Geneva for “consultations”. With the war rapidly approaching its fifth year, Crisis Group Consultant Peter Salisbury explains why any such Geneva talks are important and what should happen next.

U.S. President Donald Trump touched off a diplomatic row with South Africa by repeating an erroneous broadcast about land reform there. In this Q&A, our Southern Africa Senior Consultant Piers Pigou sets the record straight about the land ownership and expropriation debates that are really underway in South Africa today.

On 30 July Zimbabwe will hold elections. For the first time since independence Robert Mugabe is not a candidate. His successor presents himself as a reformer – but many doubt the polls will be clean. The opposition warns that Zimbabweans will not tolerate another stolen election.