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Europe & Central Asia

CrisisWatch Europe & Central Asia

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 80 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.

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Trends for Last Month October 2019

Deteriorated Situations

North Macedonia

Improved Situations

none

Outlook for This Month November 2019

Conflict Risk Alerts

none

Resolution Opportunities

none

Contributor

President & CEO
Rob_Malley

In his introduction to this month's edition of CrisisWatch, Crisis Group's conflict tracker, our President Robert Malley reflects on the diverse protests taking place in the Middle East, Africa, Latin America and Asia.

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

25 Oct 2019
There is no doubt that Russia is much more actively engaged on African issues in the Security Council than was the case five years or 10 years ago. Foreign Policy

Richard Gowan

UN Director
8 Oct 2019
L'EI constitue toujours une menace qui pourrait métastaser si les FDS voient leur attention et leurs ressources détournées [...] au profit d'une bataille défensive contre la Turquie. Le Nouvel Obs

Sam Heller

Senior Analyst, Non-state Armed Groups
7 Oct 2019
[By deciding to withdraw its troops from North East Syria] the United States just threw away the last leverage it had. The New York Times

Dareen Khalifa

Senior Analyst, Syria
28 Sep 2019
Even if efforts to create a 'buffer zone' [in Northern Syria] succeed, the underlying source of tension will remain and with it, the potential for a Turkish military response to Ankara's perceived YPG threat. AFP

Dareen Khalifa

Senior Analyst, Syria
24 Sep 2019
Ukraine is really dependent on [U.S.] aid and support, and that makes it an easy country to influence, because of that, at least on paper. Vice

Olga Oliker

Program Director, Europe and Central Asia
23 Jul 2019
Today's news that Turkey's suspended the readmission agreement with the EU will not make much practical difference for either Brussels or Ankara nor for refugees/migrants. Twitter

Nigar Göksel

Project Director, Turkey

Latest Updates

Op-Ed / Europe & Central Asia

Better Early than Sorry: How the EU Can Use its Early Warning Capacities to their Full Potential

The European Union has put instruments and tools in place to improve its early warning mechanisms. Member states must now work with EU institutions to make them more effective. One concrete step that Germany could take is to push the new EU leadership to regularly put countries ‘at risk’ on the agenda of the Foreign Affairs Council.

Originally published in Peace Lab

After a Summer of Protests, Can Georgia’s Government Regain Its Lost Trust?

This summer’s protests in Georgia led to changes to the country’s electoral system. But the country’s new Prime Minister, Giorgi Gakharia, is a man protesters wanted ousted from the last government, in which he led the Interior Ministry. In this interview with World Politics Review, Europe & Central Asia Program Director Olga Oliker and Analyst for EU Eastern Neighbourhood Olesya Vartanyan consider what Gakharia’s tenure will bring, and how the parliamentary elections next year might play out in this atmosphere.

Originally published in World Politics Review

Intra-Gulf Competition in Africa’s Horn: Lessening the Impact

Gulf states are competing for influence in the Horn of Africa to control the Red Sea, transposing internal rivalries onto a fragile region. Horn governments should increase their bargaining power with their powerful neighbours, who should recognise the risks their policies pose to regional security.

Also available in العربية

Are There Alternatives to a Military Victory in Idlib?

Last weekend, the presidents of Turkey, Iran and Russia met in Ankara to discuss, among other things, the latest developments in Syria amid Turkish concerns over the consequences of a Syrian government offensive in the last rebel enclave, Idlib. 

Originally published in Valdai

A Listening Tour of the Azerbaijani Front Lines

A new communication channel has sparked hope for negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh. But as Crisis Group Analyst Zaur Shiriyev found talking to Azerbaijani soldiers and villagers living near the front, decades of conflict mean that the path to peace will be rocky.

Our People

Olga Oliker

Program Director, Europe and Central Asia
OlyaOliker

Nigar Göksel

Project Director, Turkey
nigargoksel

Berkay Mandıracı

Analyst, Turkey
BerkayMANDIRACI

Katharine Quinn-Judge

Senior Analyst, Ukraine

Olesya Vartanyan

Analyst, Eastern Neighbourhood
olesya_vart

Alçay Akay

Office Manager, Turkey

Anna Arutunyan

Senior Analyst, Russia
scrawnya

Zaur Shiriyev

Analyst, South Caucasus
ZaurShiriyev