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Europe & Central Asia

CrisisWatch
Conflict Tracker Europe & Central Asia
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Trends for Last Month April 2022

Deteriorated Situations

Moldova

Improved Situations

none

Outlook for This Month May 2022

Conflict Risk Alerts

Ukraine

Resolution Opportunities

none

Reports & Briefings

In The News

8 May 2022
Given the personnel shortages, given the equipment shortages on both sides [to the war in Ukraine], but especially on the Russian side, I do wonder how long they can actually keep it up. CBC

Olga Oliker

Program Director, Europe and Central Asia
2 Apr 2022
Few if any wars have been launched with as much nuclear posturing as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. I think the bottom line is that Russia's doctrine allows nuclear use in case of existential threat to the state. RFE

Olga Oliker

Program Director, Europe and Central Asia
15 Mar 2022
Having watched how the Russians fight wars over the years, this is nowhere close to all they can do. Washington Post

Olga Oliker

Program Director, Europe and Central Asia
2 Mar 2022
[The UN resolution] isn’t going to stop Russian forces in their stride, but it’s a pretty enormous diplomatic win for the Ukrainians and the US, and everyone who has got behind them. The Guardian

Richard Gowan

UN Director
25 Feb 2022
A lot of diplomatic efforts will have to be put in the Ukraine crisis now and has already been put in – to the detriment of other crises here in Africa. Africanews

Pauline Bax

Deputy Program Director, Africa
23 Feb 2022
By abandoning the Minsk agreements, Russia has deprived itself of one avenue of potential long-term political leverage over Ukraine and will now be seeking another one. Reuters

Oleg Ignatov

Senior Analyst, Russia

Latest Updates

The situation in Ukraine is more dangerous than before

Crisis Group’s Program Director for Europe and Central Asia, Olga Oliker, speaks about the current situation in Ukraine, why it's more dangerous now than when Russia invaded in February and what can be done to de-escalate it.

Changing Dynamics in the Western Balkans

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker talks to Crisis Group expert Marko Prelec about the precarious situation in the Western Balkans, as Serb separatism in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the frozen Kosovo-Serbia dispute continue to stoke regional instability.

Internal Displacement and Humanitarian Response in Ukraine

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson talk to Crisis Group expert Simon Schlegel about the mass displacement resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as the conflict enters its third month and fighting continues in the east and south.

European Security and France’s Election in the Shadow of Russia’s War in Ukraine

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood talks to Crisis Group Trustee and distinguished French diplomat Gérard Araud about European security, transatlantic politics, the West’s relations with Moscow and France’s election, as Russia’s war in Ukraine enters a new phase. 

Can the OSCE Survive the Ukraine War?

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson talk to Dr. Cornelius Friesendorf about the OSCE’s future in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Our People

Olga Oliker

Program Director, Europe and Central Asia
OlyaOliker

Nigar Göksel

Project Director, Turkey
nigargoksel

Berkay Mandıracı

Analyst, Turkey
BerkayMANDIRACI

Olesya Vartanyan

Senior Analyst, South Caucasus
olesya_vart

Alçay Akay

Office Manager, Turkey

Zaur Shiriyev

Analyst, South Caucasus
ZaurShiriyev

Marko Prelec

Consulting Senior Analyst, Balkans
mprelec

Alissa de Carbonnel

Deputy Program Director, Europe and Central Asia
AdeCar