Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica’s 24 June 2002 sacking of Yugoslav Army (VJ) Chief of the General Staff Nebojsa Pavkovic was necessary, welcome, and long overdue. The EU, U.S., and NATO acclaimed the move as an effort to assert civilian control over the military, and Kostunica indeed deserves credit for removing a significant obstacle to the country’s reintegration with Europe. Nonetheless, the action was probably more the result of the ongoing power struggle between Kostunica and Serbian Premier Zoran Djindjic than a genuine effort to bring the military under civilian control or dismantle the extra-constitutional parallel command structures that the post-Milosevic leadership of the country has created within the VJ.^[fn]ICG has warned of these parallel structures in its last three Serbia reports. See ICG Balkans Report No.117 Serbia’s Transition: Reforms Under Siege, 21 September 2001; ICG Balkans Report No.126 Belgrade’s Lagging Reform: Cause for International Concern, 7 March 2002; and ICG Balkans Briefing Serbia: Military Intervention Threatens Democratic Reforms, 28 March 2002.Hide Footnote

The dramatic action will deserve to be interpreted as a genuine step in the right direction only if Kostunica follows up with concerted efforts to remove other compromised individuals and introduce democratic civilian control over the military. Until then, Pavkovic’s charges – since supported by two other generals – that the president ordered VJ troops to attack the Serbian Republic government as part of his power struggle with Djindjic will continue to raise questions about the nature of politics and governance inside a state that has not yet shaken off the dark legacy of the 1990s.

The “Pavkovic Affair” highlights the lack of democratic parliamentary control over Yugoslavia’s military and brings into public view the questionable chain of command Kostunica’s cabinet has used with respect to the VJ. It also highlights similar structures Djindjic has created within the Interior Ministry. The manner in which Kostunica removed Pavkovic was legally controversial, and is undergoing judicial and parliamentary scrutiny. The assertion that Kostunica ordered the army to attack his political rival, Djindjic, has set the stage for a constitutional and legal challenge that could weaken the president domestically during the crucial run-up to Serbian presidential elections and may even lead to his impeachment for violations of the constitution.

Belgrade/Brussels, 15 July 2002