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CrisisWatch Armenia

Unchanged Situation

Acting PM Pashinyan won snap parliamentary elections, while diplomatic efforts aimed at resolving weeks-long military standoff on border with Azerbaijan continued. Acting PM Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party 20 June took on main rivals Armenia Alliance bloc, led by former President Robert Kocharyan, in snap parliamentary elections dominated by bellicose rhetoric and political polarisation; Civil Contract party emerged victorious with 53.91% of votes (amounting to 71 seats) while Armenia Alliance won 21.09% (29 seats). Armenia Alliance bloc 22 June suggested they would soon submit to Constitutional Court report that proves existence of electoral violations; Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) election observers 21 June noted that elections were “competitive and generally well-managed”. Following escalation of border tensions since mid-May with Azerbaijan, diplomatic efforts continued in attempt to resolve border standoff. Russian, Armenian and Azerbaijani representatives 2 June met in Moscow to discuss de-escalation. Pashinyan 15 June proposed that all troops withdraw from frontier to end military standoff and start talks on demarcation of border under supervision of international observers; OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs offered to facilitate negotiations. Series of border incidents further fuelled tensions with Baku. Azerbaijan 2 June reported that about 40 Armenian soldiers 1 June crossed into Azerbaijan’s Kelbajar district; Armenia denied report as “disinformation”. Mine blast in Kelbajar district on Armenian border 4 June killed three Azerbaijani civilians; Azerbaijan 8 June detained and later released Armenian soldier in Lachin district, as alleged member of “reconnaissance-sabotage group”, which Armenian defence ministry denied; Azerbaijan reported shelling in Kelbajar district; Armenia 10 June reported that Azerbaijani Armed Forces tried to carry out engineering work in border area of Armenian Gegharkunik region. Azerbaijan and Armenia 26-27 accused each other of ceasefire violations in several sections of frontier but no casualties were reported.
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Reports & Briefings

In The News

13 Jul 2020
Many people would be very surprised if clashes at the Armenia-Azerbaijan border spiral out into war, but that doesn’t mean something cannot happen, say, in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone. OC Media

Olesya Vartanyan

Senior Analyst, South Caucasus
2 Aug 2018
The general public sees Mr. Kocharian as a person responsible for accelerating the political stagnation that led to economic decline and social problems in [Armenia]. Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Olesya Vartanyan

Senior Analyst, South Caucasus
15 Nov 2017
The [Armenian] government generally supports a deeper militarization of society. The reforms discussed plan to merge everyday life with military service – the so-called 'army-society' model. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Olesya Vartanyan

Senior Analyst, South Caucasus

Latest Updates

Reducing the Human Cost of the New Nagorno-Karabakh War

Fighting in and around Nagorno-Karabakh is decimating towns and cities, displacing tens of thousands and killing scores. Combatants must cease attacks on populated areas and let humanitarian aid through. International actors, notably the UN and OSCE, should send monitors and push harder for a ceasefire.

De-escalating the New Nagorno-Karabakh War

Azerbaijan and Armenia are again at war over the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region. Russia and France may be best-positioned to broker a ceasefire, but would need to offer parties prospects of attaining goals through talks. It will be a hard sell.

Video: Preventing a Bloody Harvest on the Armenia-Azerbaijan State Border

The fresh violence in the Armenia-Azerbaijan state border now threatens the livelihoods of many facing the impossible choice of leaving their crops to rot or risking their lives gathering their produce for market.

Preventing a Bloody Harvest on the Armenia-Azerbaijan State Border

Fighting in July interrupted what had been a stretch of relative quiet on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border. The incidents underscored how quickly and unexpectedly this front can erupt. The two countries should take better advantage of a hotline created in 2018 to avoid dangerous misunderstandings.  

Also available in Русский

Qaralar: the Fears of an Azerbaijani Village on the Border with Armenia

Settlements in proximity to the trenches on the Armenia-Azerbaijan state border render civilians on both sides equally vulnerable.