Armenia’s flawed presidential election, the subsequent lethal crackdown against a peaceful protest rally, the introduction of a state of emergency and extensive arrests of opposition supporters have brought the country to its deepest crisis since the war against Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh ended in 1994. The situation deprives Serzh Sarkisian, scheduled to be inaugurated as president on 9 April 2008, of badly needed legitimacy and handicaps prospects for much needed democratic reform and resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict alike. Unless the U.S., EU and others with significant diplomatic leverage over the regime in Yerevan exert pressure, Armenia is unlikely to make progress on either. The Sarkisian administration must urgently seek credible dialogue with the opposition, release prisoners detained on political grounds, stop arrests and harassment of the opposition and lift all measures limiting freedom of assembly and expression. Unless steps are taken to address the political crisis, the U.S. and EU should suspend foreign aid and put on hold negotiations on further and closer cooperation.

On 1 March 2008, police and security troops broke up a peaceful demonstration that had been going on continuously in Yerevan’s Liberty Square to protest the announced official result of the 19 February presidential election. Clashes with demonstrators intensified later in the day, and the violence, involving firearms, arson and looting, left seven civilians and one police officer dead. More than 450 people were reportedly injured, including several dozen police and troops.

Outgoing President Robert Kocharian reacted by declaring a sweeping twenty-day state of emergency, which suspended many basic civil rights and temporarily banned independent media reporting. The authorities used the claim that an attempt, involving a vague “international conspiracy”, had been made to topple the government as justification for arresting over 100 opposition figures. Though the state of emergency was officially lifted on 21 March, President Kocharian signed a new law into effect four days earlier placing new controls on political manifestations.

Sarkisian, prime minister since 2007, is Kocharian’s hand-picked successor, but questions about his election and its violent aftermath will undermine his authority. The 19 February election was marred by serious irregularities, and the subsequent use of excessive force and wide arrests by the authorities has caused a deep rift in society. Unless opposition figures are freed, dialogue resumed and justice pursued, this division will deepen.

Armenia’s democracy has in most respects been in retreat for over a decade. Some constitutional and legal reforms have been undertaken, but they are mostly formalistic and the exception. The rule has been flawed elections, concentration of power in the hands of the executive, an army and security services which enjoy virtual impunity, a court system subservient to and manipulated by the government, and increased government censorship and control of key media outlets. Though the economy has performed relatively well and poverty has decreased, corruption and cronyism still seriously restrict sustainable, equitable growth.

Armenia needs to address the electoral violence as well as more fundamental questions regarding the country’s governance. If the incoming presidency takes the right course, the EU and U.S. need to help foster reconciliation and deeper institutional reform. Their reaction to the flawed election and lethal crackdown, however, has been inadequate. The international community needs to send a stronger message to ensure that Armenia remains a democratic state, with a functional opposition that does not live in fear, and where basic human rights, including the right to freedom of assembly and expression, are guaranteed.

To avoid a crisis of legitimacy and the concomitant political instability, the Armenian authorities should:

• release persons detained due to their political activity and cease arrests and threats against the opposition, including against the runner-up in the 19 February election, former President Levon Ter-Petrosian;
   
• authorise an independent investigation, with international participation, into the 1 March violence and follow through on the pledge to punish police officers who illegally used weapons against civilians;
   
• revoke the amendments to the law on freedom of assembly adopted during the emergency rule and allow peaceful protests in locations where they will not cause a threat to public order;
   
• lift remaining media restrictions and refrain from new restrictions on the media or access to the internet;
   
• investigate claims of violence and attacks against political party vote monitors at polling stations and initiate criminal proceedings against perpetrators; and
   
• pursue a credible dialogue process with the opposition in an effort to lower political tensions.

To defuse tensions, the Armenian opposition should:

• agree immediately and without preconditions to enter into dialogue with the government;
   
• impress upon supporters that protests which aim to stir unrest, such as blockading government buildings and impeding the work of government ministries, will not be condoned; and
   
• appeal the Constitutional Court’s decision on the elections to the European Court of Human Rights and consider the same course with respect to other court decisions when all domestic remedies are exhausted.

To facilitate a way out of the impasse, the EU and U.S. should:

• encourage all major Armenian political forces to engage in direct negotiations to find ways to defuse tensions and speed reconciliation; and
   
• deliver clear messages to the Sarkisian administration that business as usual will not be possible until serious steps are taken to reconcile the Armenian polity as well as to address the root causes of the current instability.

If the government does not take credible steps to implement the measures recommended above and if arrests of opposition members continue:

• the EU and U.S. should suspend foreign aid;
   
• the Council of Europe should consider suspending Armenia’s membership; and
   
• the U.S., EU and EU member states should consider, especially if there is more violence, initiating a diplomatic embargo on visits by President Sarkisian and senior officials of the security services.

Yerevan/Tbilisi/Brussels, 8 April 2008