The Days After: Humanitarian Crisis and Prospects for Peace in Karabakh and the Region
The Days After: Humanitarian Crisis and Prospects for Peace in Karabakh and the Region
Report / Europe & Central Asia 2 minutes

Nagorno-Karabakh: A Plan for Peace

Settlement of the long running Nagorno-Karabakh conflict -- the most significant obstacle to stability in the South Caucasus -- remains elusive, despite more optimistic noises recently from Azerbaijan and Armenia. Eleven years after the 1994 ceasefire, burgeoning defence budgets, increasing ceasefire violations, and continuing demonisation by each side of the other side are ominous signs that time for a peace agreement is running out.

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Executive Summary

Settlement of the long running Nagorno-Karabakh conflict -- the most significant obstacle to stability in the South Caucasus -- remains elusive, despite more optimistic noises recently from Azerbaijan and Armenia. Eleven years after the 1994 ceasefire, burgeoning defence budgets, increasing ceasefire violations, and continuing demonisation by each side of the other side are ominous signs that time for a peace agreement is running out. But a compromise can now be constructed around an approach that, while addressing all the matters in dispute, leaves the core issue of Nagorno-Karabakh's ultimate status open for later resolution, after other measures have been put in place.

Key elements of that proposed settlement package include the withdrawal of the Armenia-backed Nagorno-Karabakh forces from the occupied districts of Azerbaijan surrounding the entity; the renunciation by Azerbaijan of the use of force to reintegrate the entity; the deployment of international peacekeepers; the return of displaced persons; and the re-opening of trade and communication links. Nagorno-Karabakh's status should ultimately be determined by an internationally sanctioned referendum with the exclusive participation of Karabakh Armenians and Azeris, but only after the above measures have been implemented. Until then Nagorno-Karabakh would remain part of Azerbaijan, though in practical terms it would be self-governing and enjoy an internationally acknowledged interim status.

Today Armenia and Azerbaijan remain divided on vital points. Azerbaijan does not accept any compromise of its territorial integrity, nor does it agree that Nagorno-Karabakh's population alone can vote on determining its final status. Armenia is not willing to support withdrawal from the seven occupied districts around Nagorno-Karabakh, or allow the return of Azerbaijan internally displaced persons (IDPs) to Nagorno-Karabakh, until the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh is a reality. There has been tentative discussion of a possible plebiscite to determine the entity's final status, but with none of the necessary detail agreed as to who would vote on what, when and how, nor any agreement as to what other settlement conditions would create the context for such a vote.

The Minsk Group of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), currently co-chaired by France, Russia and the U.S., has been facilitating negotiations since 1994. After a decade of fruitless talks, a new format of meetings, the Prague Process, involving direct bilateral contact between the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan was initiated in 2004. During the past twelve months the participants and OSCE co-chairs alike have publicly expressed optimism that a deal can be reached soon. But there is an urgent need to translate that generalised optimism into very specific agreement and action.

An earlier Crisis Group report explored how the Armenian and Azeri communities of Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding districts live today and view resolution of the conflict.[fn]Crisis Group Europe Report N°166, Nagorno-Karabakh: Viewing the Conflict from the Ground, 14 September 2005.Hide Footnote Against that background, this report examines the causes of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, analyses the OSCE-led negotiations process as it has evolved since 1992, and identifies the necessary elements of a workable and achievable peace plan.

Tbilisi/Brussels, 11 October 2005

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