After his election as Kyrgyzstan’s president in October 2017, Sooronbai Jeenbekov inherited an economically uncertain state, which has failed to address more than twenty years of misrule despite emerging from two episodes of upheaval. Central Asia’s only nominal parliamentary democracy, Kyrgyzstan is divided along ethnic and regional lines, deeply corrupt and facing religious radicalisation in absence of a strong state. Crisis Group monitors ethnic and political tensions as well as wider regional relations.
This week on War & Peace, post-Soviet security expert Dr Erica Marat joins Olga Oliker and Hugh Pope to discuss the drivers of anti-establishment protests and the policing thereof across Central Asia and globally.
Chorus of voices protested draft law on “foreign representatives”, Bishkek and Dushanbe advanced toward border deal, and UN, EU and Central Asian officials held talks on Afghanistan.
Criticism of “foreign representatives” bill continued. Parliament 22 Feb approved second reading of controversial ‘foreign representatives’ bill amid chorus of voices underscoring risks to civil society and free speech. Notably, Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe 7 Feb warned it “would have an overwhelmingly negative impact on civil society, human rights defenders, and the media”, while rights group Amnesty International 8 Feb said proposed legislation and amendments bill “mimic the infamous Russian ‘foreign agents’ law”. President Japarov 9 Feb responded to Jan letter from U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken expressing concern about bill, accused U.S. of “interference” in country’s internal affairs.
Bishkek and Dushanbe advanced toward final border agreement. Tajik state news agency Khovar 5 Feb reported that Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan had agreed on another 3.71km of state border, as sides inched closer toward final agreement. Tajik President Emomali Rahmon same day met with FM Kulubayev in Tajik capital Dushanbe; pair reportedly discussed recent progress on border delimitation, as well as water resource management.
Kyrgyzstan hosted talks on Afghanistan with UN, EU and regional officials. Bishkek 14 Feb hosted UN Special Representative for Afghanistan Roza Otunbaeva, along with officials from all five Central Asian nations and EU, for talks ahead of UN-sponsored conference on Afghanistan 18-19 Feb in Qatar. Meeting came amid efforts among regional powers for closer engagement with Kabul, and reportedly focused on current challenges obstructing assistance to Afghanistan and how to ensure country’s long-term peace and stability.
Four Central Asian states – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan – have argued over their water resources since the collapse of the Soviet Union. At times these disputes have seemed to threaten war. The forthcoming presidential summit in Astana can help banish that spectre.
The inauguration of Kyrgyzstan’s new president on 24 November is a tribute to the country’s parliamentary democracy. But to overcome continued vulnerability, Sooronbai Jeenbekov must manage powerful southern elites, define the role of religion in society and spearhead reconciliation with Central Asian neighbours Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
While Kyrgyzstan’s 15 October elections are a rare milestone for Central Asian democracy, the campaign is exposing dangerous fault lines. In the largest city of Osh, the new president will have to face down robust local power brokers, defuse Uzbek-Kyrgyz tensions and re-introduce the rule of law.
Recent political protests in Kyrgyzstan signal the possibility of deeper trouble ahead of presidential elections in November. For the first time in the country’s pro-independence history, there is real competition for leadership in Central Asia’s only semi-functioning democracy.
Crisis Group’s Publications Officer Julie David de Lossy, formerly a freelance photographer of Central Asia, travels to Kyrgyzstan to take a look through her camera lens at the context of our conflict-prevention work.
The rapid rise of alternative interpretations of Islam, often at odds with the state’s concept of traditional identity, are being fueled in part by endemic corruption and perceptions of incompetency. The government must end economic marginalisation and improve inadequate institutions, or risk not just threats to internal security but also the resurfacing of ethnic tensions.
Kyrgyzstan’s relative stability belies the country’s brittle Central Asian neighbourhood, simmering ethnic tensions, religious extremism and political frustration. Russia, the West and China share interests here, creating a unique opportunity to work together for Kyrgyzstan’s democratic development during and after the upcoming 4 October parliamentary elections.
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