This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Hugh Pope talk to Belarusian expert Yauheni Preiherman about the outlook for Belarus's President Aleksandr Lukashenka after his crackdowns on dissidents, EU sanctions, and a recent standoff with European countries over refugees trapped on the Belarus-Poland border.
Minsk maintained pressure on opposition as tensions with its western neighbours persisted.
Crackdown on dissent continued despite opposition. Minsk court 14 March sentenced Roman Catholic religious instructor Uladzislau Beladzed, 22 March sentenced journalist Ihar Karney, both to three years in prison on extremism charges. 27 Nobel Peace Prize laureates 20 March called for “immediate release of political prisoners in Belarus”; letter also urged EU govts to take stronger action to end “brutal repression”.
Tensions between Belarus and its western neighbours remained high. Defence Ministry 11 March launched large-scale “combat readiness” check of its armed forces, involving live-fire exercises and movement of military hardware on public roads; Lithuania 14 March said check was “routine” and “no reason to worry”, despite one mechanised brigade partially relocating to border near Lithuania and Latvia. Belarus 14 March responded to Lithuania’s Feb closure of additional border crossings with temporary import bans, mainly on food products. President Lukashenko 26 March dismissed claims Minsk is planning attack on Suwalki Gap, corridor linking Poland to Lithuania, after video surfaced allegedly showing him discussing area with military commander.
Thousands of people looking to enter the European Union have massed at the Belarusian frontier with Poland. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Oleg Ignatov explains how the events relate to tensions between Belarus and its ally, Russia, on one side, and Western governments on the other.
In this week’s episode of Hold Your Fire!, Olesya Vartanyan, Crisis Group’s senior South Caucasus analyst, opens up about how the recent flare-up in Nagorno-Karabakh is affecting her personally. It could be the “big war” between Armenia and Azerbaijan that everyone was dreading would happen.
President Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s government is teetering after he declared victory in a rigged 9 August vote. Protests have exploded. Moscow, Brussels and other stakeholders should avoid transforming the Belarus crisis into a European one, cooperate to warn against repression and insist on new, fair elections.
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