Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, escalating a war that began eight years before with Moscow’s annexation of Crimea. For Ukraine, its very existence as a state is at stake, while Russia hopes its attack will help assert its place in the world and restore its dominance over key neighbours. Ukraine’s Western backers see the prospect of Russia succeeding in violently shifting borders as a risk to their security. They, therefore, try to balance military support to Ukraine and the risk of escalating the conflict. Crisis Group’s reporting follows developments in the war, assesses its human costs and gauges the conflict’s regional and global security implications. In its advocacy, Crisis Group seeks to support policies that will help Ukraine survive and reduce escalation risks and the human cost of fighting while contributing to a sustainably secure Europe.
Two years after Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine, Washington is struggling to maintain support for Kyiv. A new assistance package is stuck in Congress. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Sarah Harrison explains what is causing the holdup and what it could mean for the war.
Ukrainian forces hastily built defensive lines in preparation for more Russian advances, Moscow pounded country with missile attacks, and Czech initiative sought to boost waning ammunition stocks.
Ukraine rushed to build defensive lines following Russian advances. After Russia captured Avdiivka town and nearby settlements in eastern Donetsk region in Feb, its offensive slowed significantly. President Zelenskyy 11 March announced Ukraine was building 2000km of defensive lines in preparation for stepped-up advances, though military analysts warned about slow progress, which may force Ukrainian troops to fortify defensive lines while under fire from Russians. Russian forces late March gradually advanced west of Avdiivka, with some reports suggesting they seized control of two more villages, albeit at high cost. Meanwhile, Ukraine 5 March sunk Russian patrol vessel using domestically produced naval drones, 23 March claimed to have inflicted damage on three landing ships and one intelligence ship from Russian Black Sea fleet in Crimean port of Sevastopol. Ukraine has disabled one third of fleet’s combat ships since full-scale invasion.
Russia hailed missiles on Ukraine, notably targeting energy infrastructure. Moscow escalated attacks in north using ballistic missiles and guided aviation bombs, forcing authorities mid-March to begin evacuating civilians. Beginning 21 March, Russian forces launched massive missile and drone attacks on energy infrastructure, leaving over one million Ukrainians without power; strikes hit several major power facilities, including country’s largest dam. Russian Ministry of Defence 22 March said attacks were in response to Ukrainian shelling and cross-border incursions (see Russia). Meanwhile, during secret visit to Odesa region by Zelenskyy and Greek PM Mitsotakis, ballistic missile 6 March struck near their convoy; attack raised concerns about Russian intelligence awareness of foreign dignitaries’ movements.
In other important developments. Parliament made headway clarifying thousands of queries to pending mobilisation law, which is likely to come up for vote in early April. Czech President Pavel 7 March pledged to deliver 800,000 shells in 2024 via internationally-funded, Czech-led initiative; announcement came amid halting U.S. military assistance and delays in expansion of European ammunition production. China’s Ambassador to Switzerland 18 March said Beijing was considering participation in Ukraine peace summit organised by Bern; Moscow 13 March ruled out Russian participation.
Ukraine's weapons supplies are depleted by the counteroffensive, and its allies are struggling to quickly ramp up production.
Moscow's strategy of waiting for an erosion of European unity over Ukraine could yet prove a miscalculation.
[Putin’s] goal is to force the West to negotiate on Moscow's terms … on the entire post-Soviet space. He wants to divide the world into spheres of influence again.
Russia wants negotiations … because it thinks that it can get … what it wants from this war … It doesn't mean that Russia is ready to accept any compromise.
If [war in Gaza] morphs into a long, regional conflict, resource constraints on Ukraine may grow in time.
If, as a result of the long conflict between Israel and Palestine, the US has to cut military support to Ukraine … the consequences won’t be until next summer.
This week on War & Peace, Olga and Elissa are joined by Joe Cirincione, national security analyst and a leading expert on non-proliferation, to discuss the nuclear escalation risks of the war in Ukraine, U.S. nuclear policy and the looming collapse of global arms control.
This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson talk with Crisis Group experts Alissa de Carbonnel and Simon Schlegel about where things stand for Ukraine and its Western supporters two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion and what might be next.
This article was originally published in the World Politics Review.
In this online event Crisis Group experts discuss the biggest challenges facing Kyiv and its Western backers and options to address them.
Now entering its third year, Russia’s war in Ukraine is at an impasse, with victory in view for neither side. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2024, Crisis Group explains how the EU can keep supporting Ukraine despite the risk of U.S. aid ending.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks with Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s Europe & Central Asia Director, about Russia’s war in Ukraine, battlefield dynamics and whether Western support for Ukraine will hold.
This week on War & Peace, Olga talks with Samuel Charap, Senior Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation, about the prospect (or lack thereof) of negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, what diplomacy would look like and what role Kyiv’s Western supporters would play in facilitating it.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks with Crisis Group experts Olga Oliker and Michael Hanna about the geopolitics of the Gaza war, what it might mean for Ukraine, risks of a wider conflagration and U.S. policy in the Middle East and Europe.
In March, units reportedly affiliated with the Ukrainian armed forces but composed of Russian citizens and others began making armed incursions into regions of Russia along Ukraine’s border. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts explain who these Russian combatants are and what they are doing.
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