In March, units reportedly affiliated with the Ukrainian armed forces but composed of Russian citizens and others began making armed incursions into regions of Russia along Ukraine’s border. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts explain who these Russian combatants are and what they are doing.
CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations ("standbys") to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
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Israel/Palestine
Azerbaijan does not trust Western incentives for peace talks … [Azerbaijanis] would like to see more emphasis on issues such as investments and reconstruction.
Russia wants negotiations … because it thinks that it can get … what it wants from this war … It doesn't mean that Russia is ready to accept any compromise.
In my meetings with displaced people scattered throughout Armenia … I have not met a single person who is considering returning to Nagorno-Karabakh any time soon.
The success of Ankara's mediation [over Gaza] will depend on how much influence the political wing of Hamas has on the armed wing.
If [war in Gaza] morphs into a long, regional conflict, resource constraints on Ukraine may grow in time.
If, as a result of the long conflict between Israel and Palestine, the US has to cut military support to Ukraine … the consequences won’t be until next summer.
This week on War & Peace, Olga talks with Samuel Charap, Senior Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation, about the prospect (or lack thereof) of negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, what diplomacy would look like and what role Kyiv’s Western supporters would play in facilitating it.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks with Crisis Group experts Olga Oliker and Michael Hanna about the geopolitics of the Gaza war, what it might mean for Ukraine, risks of a wider conflagration and U.S. policy in the Middle East and Europe.
This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker talks with Crisis Group’s South Caucasus experts Olesya Vartanyan and Zaur Shiriyev about Azerbaijan’s military action in Karabakh, its humanitarian fallout and prospects for peace between Baku and Yerevan.
War & Peace is a podcast series from the International Crisis Group, in which Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson interview experts about all things Europe and its neighbourhood, from Russia to Türkiye and beyond. Their guests shed new light on everything that helps or hinders prospects for peace. Episodes from past series of War & Peace can be found here: Season 1, Season 2 Season 3, and Season 4.
Relations between Ankara and Brussels have been warming despite democratic backsliding in Türkiye. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023 – Autumn Update, Crisis Group explains how the EU and its member states can deepen this trend, cooperating with Türkiye in areas of mutual interest.
Tens of thousands of people from Nagorno-Karabakh have streamed into Armenia following Azerbaijan’s one-day offensive ending the enclave’s de facto self-governance. Outside powers should focus on meeting the refugees’ needs, protecting those few residents who wish to remain and preventing renewed conflict in the region.
In this online event Crisis Group experts discuss the latest developments in Nagorno-Karabakh and prospects for de-escalating tensions and a peace agreement.
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