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Middle East & North Africa

CrisisWatch
Conflict Tracker Middle East & North Africa
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Trends for Last Month November 2021

Deteriorated Situations

Western Sahara

Improved Situations

none

Outlook for This Month December 2021

Conflict Risk Alerts

YemenLibya

Resolution Opportunities

none

Reports & Briefings

In The News

23 Nov 2021
This is the first time that Libya has held presidential elections, and the powers attributed to the president in the current elections law are huge. Middle East Eye

Claudia Gazzini

Consulting Senior Analyst, Libya
11 Nov 2021
By insisting on its maximalist demands [in the nuclear talks with the U.S.], Iran is likely to get neither sanctions relief nor the guarantees it is seeking. Reuters

Ali Vaez

Senior Adviser to the President & Project Director, Iran
6 Nov 2021
Morocco has shown a more hardnosed approach to Western Sahara and in its relations with its neighbours, including Spain. AFP

Riccardo Fabiani

Project Director, North Africa
3 Nov 2021
From an Iranian perspective, their ally in Yemen the Houthis appear very close in effect to winning the war in the north, if not the entire country. Reuters

Peter Salisbury

Senior Analyst, Yemen
7 Oct 2021
[Shiite Muslim cleric] Sadr has been selling himself as a viable option, and a central one in Iraqi politics. Washington Post

Lahib Higel

Senior Analyst, Iraq
24 Sep 2021
If anything, it is amazing how little the pandemic has affected the fighting [in Yemen]. The New York Times

Peter Salisbury

Senior Analyst, Yemen

Latest Updates

Iraq’s Surprise Election Results

Though it did not produce fundamental change, the October voting in Iraq did upset the balance of power in parliament. The most likely outcome is a coalition that can sustain the political status quo but perhaps not the social peace.

Also available in العربية

Washington Must Act at the UN on Western Sahara’s Dangerous Crisis

On 29 October, the UN Security Council will vote on the UN mission in Western Sahara’s renewal. Following last year’s resumption of hostilities and the appointment of a new envoy, Council members should signal their commitment to relaunching negotiations and an even-handed approach to the conflict.

Managing Lebanon’s Compounding Crises

Lebanon is suffering economic meltdown while its politicians dither. Reform – and fiscal relief – is unlikely before 2022 elections. While pushing for timely polls, international partners should send humanitarian assistance to ease the public’s pain, keep key infrastructure running and avert security breakdowns.

Also available in العربية

Europe’s Balancing Act in Western Sahara

Hugh Pope is joined by North Africa experts Intissar Fakir and Riccardo Fabiani to ask whether Morocco holds a winning hand in its conflict with the pro-independence Polisario Front in Western Sahara as Europe looks on timidly, wary of direct challenges to the regional power. 

Our People

Dina Esfandiary

Senior Advisor, Middle East and North Africa
desfandiary

Joost Hiltermann

Program Director, Middle East and North Africa
JoostHiltermann

Michaël Béchir Ayari

Senior Analyst, Tunisia

Claudia Gazzini

Consulting Senior Analyst, Libya

Ali Vaez

Senior Adviser to the President & Project Director, Iran
AliVaez

Heiko Wimmen

Project Director, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon
heiko_wimmen

Naysan Rafati

Senior Analyst, Iran

Sam Heller

Former Adviser, Non-state Armed Groups
AbuJamajem