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When the Line Between War and Peace Becomes Blurred, How Do We Keep Ourselves Safe?
When the Line Between War and Peace Becomes Blurred, How Do We Keep Ourselves Safe?
Global Media Rally to Support Detained Michael Kovrig
Global Media Rally to Support Detained Michael Kovrig
Op-Ed / Global

When the Line Between War and Peace Becomes Blurred, How Do We Keep Ourselves Safe?

Originally published in World Economic Forum

Is a more connected world a safer and more resilient one, or is it more brittle and fragile? It all depends on how we organize our defense. But the failure to stem the rise of terrorism over the past 15 years suggests we’ve not got it right. How can we restructure our defense systems to take into account the immense changes taking place, and the blurring distinction between war and peace?

An Out-of-Date Model

Today’s defense model is one of state-centric centralized defense. Each state is expected to protect its citizens against external threats by deterring state-to-state aggression and by intervening in those states whose failure provides a safe haven to non-state enemies.

States are also expected to protect people against internal threats; they do so through increased police and military presence in our cities, and through ever-expanding digital mass surveillance to detect anomalous behaviours and identify potential threats.

A Thin Line Between War and Peace

This model is not working. Whether it is little green men in Crimea or cyber-attacks, the line between war and peace has been blurred, and in a world no more structured by an ideological divide, exploiting the vulnerabilities of the enemy is a more effective way to wage war than confronting it head on.

As for failing states, 15 years of costly interventions should have taught us the limits of military intervention: foreigners may help but they can’t substitute for locally driven state building.

We need an alternative model of decentralized defense that will reflect the profound transformation brought upon us by the digital age...

Lastly, finding the needle of terrorism in the haystack of law-abiding citizens is proving to be a frustrating pursuit, which at worst could turn democratic countries into police states, and at best, generates many false flags and will never guarantee complete success, even if the record of security agencies is better than often alleged.

We need an alternative model of decentralized defense that will reflect the profound transformation brought upon us by the digital age and the increased connectivity.

A New Approach to Defense

What we have at present is the worst of both worlds: traditional centralized systems are inefficient at identifying and correcting local vulnerabilities, but connectivity increases vulnerabilities because it accelerates and multiplies the psychological, political and in some cases physical impact of an attack on any part of a system. This is very different from the terrorist attacks of the seventies, which were not a threat to our societies.

What, then, should our new approach towards defense look like? That’s not an easy question to answer, but whatever model we end up with needs to take into account five important points:

The enemy within

Internal fragilities are a greater risk than external threats. By any objective measure, terrorism and external aggression are low risks to our personal safety, but they exacerbate our pre-existing sense of vulnerability. The biggest risks are the political upheavals that such a sense of vulnerability can trigger and that malevolent actors can exploit.

We can’t let fear win

Communities brought together only by fear are vulnerable because fear destroys trust, which is the foundation of any long-term human community. A much greater effort is needed to foster a positive sense of common purpose. Civic organizations and public debate have a critical role to play in strengthening the fabric of society from the bottom up.

Cities will supplant states

Physical proximity is becoming more relevant as a counterweight to the anonymity of globalization: in an urbanized world, cities are likely to become increasingly important as political units and standard bearers of identity. Over time, they may become more relevant to our security than states, provided that mechanisms are put in place to ensure effective sharing of data.

The only way to restore some symmetry and stability is to organize defense at the lowest possible level...

The changing nature of warfare

Top-down provision of security, based on the Weberian model of the state enjoying a monopoly on the legal use of force, is ill-suited to the growing diffusion of power, including lethal power, which multiplies the capacities of individuals to wreak havoc in a society. Attack is becoming much cheaper than defense, especially, but not only, in the cyber world. We should not be surprised if this makes asymmetric warfare the most rational way of conducting war, which would generate increased instability.

The power of devolution

The only way to restore some symmetry and stability is to organize defense at the lowest possible level, empowering individuals to protect themselves against cyber-attacks through point-to-point encryption, and empowering cities to strengthen local connections among its citizens, making it more difficult for outsiders to launch attacks. Devolving power to individuals and to lower levels of government will also deprive enemies of targets whose value resides in their symbolic value as centres of great power, reducing the advantage of asymmetric attack. Nuclear warfare, but also cyber warfare, will be less likely if there is no target of strategic importance.

A Brave New World

The implications of this transformation will inevitably be gradual but they will be far-reaching.

Nuclear weapons for instance, are the ultimate expression of the traditional centralized state system: they need its resources to be developed, they require extreme concentration of decision for the threat of use to be credible, and they require similarly structured enemies for the threat to have a target. Their elimination – essential for the long-term survival of humanity – is unlikely to come from a decision to abolish them, but it may eventually happen through an evolution of political structures that will make them irrelevant, for lack of resources, centralized decision makers, and targets.

At the strategic level, the evolution of the world towards ever-bigger building blocks – the US, China, Europe, Russia – ­will be reversed. The ongoing backlash against a European super-state is partly an expression of nostalgic nationalism, partly an acknowledgement that big structures can be dangerous because the stakes are just too high when a change occurs at the top. But now the era of the big state is coming to an end.

At the same time, the world has benefited enormously from the economies of scale of globalization and from the dynamism brought about by diversity. Individuals, cities must be connected, but the connections are unlikely to replicate the pyramidal model of traditional federalism. The European Union will need to adapt to that new situation if it wants to stay ahead of its time.

More likely, in a flatter world, interoperability and communications between smaller entities will be achieved through a multiplicity of issue-specific arrangements that will balance democratic and technical legitimacy: think of the evolving governance of the internet.

The ongoing backlash against a European super-state is partly an expression of nostalgic nationalism, partly an acknowledgement that big structures can be dangerous...

At the operational level, just as “know your customers” has become an obligation for any law-abiding bank, know-thy-neighbour is likely to become a feature of tomorrow’s societies. If applied to big entities such as mega-states, or even mega-cities, it could destroy anonymity, which has been an essential dimension of freedom, and could make our societies oppressively Orwellian.

However, if there is a multiplicity of political entities, allowing us to choose our neighbours, and if we can protect privacy through robust encryption, that risk will be largely eliminated. Freedom will be ensured less through separation of powers and more through a juxtaposition of multiple powers.

Why Decentralization Makes Sense

The present experience with increased flows of refugees pouring into Europe provides the best example of the value of decentralization. When human beings are just part of a statistic, they can easily be perceived as a threat. When they acquire a human face, natural human empathy reasserts itself, as has been the case in many German small towns welcoming refugees.

Decentralized defense will operationalize that intuition: the abstraction of the nation feeds dangerous nationalism; the empowerment of individuals connected by proximity strengthens the fabric of a resilient and open society.

Media Release / Global

Global Media Rally to Support Detained Michael Kovrig

From the moment Chinese security officers seized our colleague Michael Kovrig from a Beijing street on 10 December 2018, holding him prisoner for more than one year since then, there has been a swelling tide of support for calls to free him from fellow China specialists, citizen action groups, academics, scholars and many nations from the Baltics, to the EU, to Canada and to the U.S.

There have also been dozens of newspaper editorials and hundreds of news reports, from media outlets all over Canada through Asia and on the opinion pages of major European and North American newspapers.

Canadian citizens being detained by China appear to have become pawns in a political impasse.

“China, already an aggressive rising power known to flout the rule of law and disregard human rights, now seems to be using hostage-taking to resolve economic and diplomatic dispute”, said an editorial in the New York Times, referring to the detention of Kovrig and another Canadian, Michael Spavor. “Canadian citizens being detained by China appear to have become pawns in a political impasse”.

Canada’s Globe and Mail said the detention was a kind of watershed. “The crisis has dispelled a lot of illusions on both sides of the Pacific. It’s never pleasant to discover the gap between one’s wishes and objective reality, but it is the beginning of the path to wisdom”, it said in an editorial. “By essentially kidnapping two Canadians, the hard men of Beijing have shown their true faces”.

An opinion piece in The Washington Post said the fallout was quickly spreading beyond the official domain. “People in the international NGO, business, academic and diplomatic communities who deal with China should pay attention”, wrote law professor Donald Clark. “What Kovrig did there was exactly what huge numbers of other people in those communities do in China: He went around and talked to people. … Now we know that these activities can be instantly made the basis for serious criminal charges against anyone whose government offends China”.

“You cannot just go around arresting innocent people and holding them hostage. That is the mark of a thuggish state, not a permanent member of the Security Council”, Clark added. “If you want respect, act respectably”.

You cannot just go around arresting innocent people and holding them hostage.

In Canada, the Ontario newspaper London Free Press said Ottawa was the victim of a U.S. spat with Chinese technology giant Huawei – Kovrig was detained days after Canada implemented a U.S. arrest order against Huawei’s Chief Financial Officer, Meng Wanzhou – and demanded that Canada find ways to retaliate as China began taking action against Canadian canola and other exports. 

“We can announce a Huawei ban from our 5G grid sooner than later, we can expel their Ambassador for his labelling Canadians ‘white supremacists’ and we can ban state-owned enterprises from purchasing Canadian companies. [Withdrawing] our funds from China’s development bank [is another of the] ideas worth considering”, the London Free Press said in an editorial.

Many commentaries noted the intangible costs of jailing Kovrig, who is “a well-respected and well-connected analyst; a thoughtful and nuanced observer who engaged with senior Chinese officials and attempted to explain Chinese views to the international community”, noted an editorial in the UK’s Guardian.

“The case … reminds us that the rise of a brash authoritarian power comes with profoundly human consequences”, said Hal Brands in Bloomberg Opinion. “China risks alienating those foreign observers who have worked hardest to build connections and understanding between Beijing and the outside world … making foreign CEOs wonder whether they or their employees should take the risk of traveling there”.

Beijing is jeopardising its own standing in the world.

Canadian business leader and philanthropist Frank Giustra added in the Globe and Mail that “the unjustified detention of my countrymen hurts China’s global stature and sends a destructive signal to everyone who wants to build bridges … China needs to embrace friends such as Michael – not put them in jail”.

In an editorial, the Washington Post pointed out the stark contrast between the treatment of Meng Wanzhou and Michael Kovrig’s incarceration. “Released on bail, she has been living in one of the two large mansions she owns in Vancouver while awaiting her extradition hearing. In contrast, Mr. Kovrig is isolated in a Beijing prison where he is denied access to lawyers and his family. The New York Times reported that he had been interrogated continuously and was not allowed to turn the light off in his cell at night”.

Michael’s long ordeal has had a wide, persistent echo in Canadian media. “Get angry. Tell Ottawa you’re angry. And tell China’s embassy in Ottawa you’re angry”, The Province told its readers in Vancouver.

Reuters reported that Kovrig’s detention had spread a new chill through the NGO community in China, and the South China Morning Post said that even diplomats felt nervous. The Sydney Morning Herald said that “Australia and its partners should all agree to raise travel warnings for China as the risk of arbitrary detention is now unacceptably high. China’s leadership is making the country unsafe for many. It’s time that Australia publicly recognised this unfortunate reality and issued a former travel warning”. 

“While China may not have picked this fight with the US, how it responds will help shape the way the world views it at a critical time”, wrote Mark Malloch-Brown in the Financial Times. “Beijing is jeopardising its own standing in the world”.