The U.S. has claimed a drone strike killing al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in a Kabul house. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Jerome Drevon explores what this event may mean for the movement and its affiliates.
Al-Qaeda does not currently have the ability to perpetrate large-scale attacks in western countries, nor the intention.
Jailbreaks and prison riots were a central component of IS resurgence in Iraq and are a serious threat in Syria today.
As long as the election cycle and current tensions [in Somalia] drag on, the attention of the political elite will be more inwardly focused, while other priorities lag behind.
When the political elite [in Somalia] are focused on each other, attention turns away from the battle against al-Shabab.
Unfortunately, while in much of the world 9/11 is viewed as in the past, in Africa, the legacy of those attacks lives on.
If France is to withdraw [from the Sahel] in a drastic manner as the U.S. did [from Afghanistan], the balance of power is likely to shift in favor of the jihadists.