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As this briefing paper went to press, all eyes were on the United States and United Nations, the weapons inspectors, war preparations and the Iraqi regime's posture toward them. Yet, as has been true throughout this crisis, the unknown variable in the equation is the view of the Iraqi population.

Since U.S. President George W. Bush’s 24 June 2002 statement on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Palestinian reform has emerged as a key ingredient in Middle East diplomacy. In his statement, the president publicly identified “a new and different Palestinian leadership” and “entirely new political and economic institutions” as preconditions for the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Nearly two weeks after the Bali bombings, Indonesia is still in a state of shock, and it is difficult to assess the longer-term impact with any accuracy.

Maumere, a town of some 40,000 people on the island of Flores in eastern Indonesia, is to all appearances the model of tranquillity, noted primarily for its poverty and Catholicism. But since July 2002, three incidents that are symptomatic of many problems facing Indonesia more generally have shaken the town.

The release of Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest on 6 May 2002 has generated some optimism about political progress in Myanmar. It remains to be seen, however, whether all political actors will be able to translate the new cooperative atmosphere into actual compromises in key policy areas.

The international community is often left to bemoan the fact that it lacks effective early warning tools for major humanitarian crises and conflicts. Yet, today in Liberia it is presented with almost a textbook case of all the major warning signs of a deteriorating situation across a range of political, military, economic and social fronts.

One network of militant Muslims has produced all the Indonesian nationals so far suspected of links to al-Qaeda. This briefing paper explains how that network emerged, its historical antecedents, and the political dynamics over the last two decades that led some of its members from Indonesia to Malaysia to Afghanistan.

Prospects are still weak for a ceasefire agreement in Burundi that includes all rebel factions. Despite the Arusha agreement in August 2000 and installation of a transition government on 1 November 2001, the warring parties, the Burundi army and the various factions of the Party for the Liberation of the Hutu People/National Liberation Forces (PALIPEHUTU-FNL) and of the National Council for the Defense of Democracy/Defense Forces of Democracy (CNDD-FDD), are still fighting.

The Emergency Loya Jirga, or grand national assembly, held from 10 to 21 June 2002 in Kabul was a small but critical step in Afghanistan’s political development.

Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica’s 24 June 2002 sacking of Yugoslav Army (VJ) Chief of the General Staff Nebojsa Pavkovic was necessary, welcome, and long overdue. The EU, U.S., and NATO acclaimed the move as an effort to assert civilian control over the military, and Kostunica indeed deserves credit for removing a significant obstacle to the country’s reintegration with Europe.