Venezuela faces a major political, economic and social crisis, with hyperinflation, acute scarcity of food, medicine and other basic goods and one of the world’s highest murder rates. The opposition has been staging widespread protests against the increasingly totalitarian policies enacted by Maduro’s government. Dozens of demonstrators have been killed. The July 2017 election of an all-powerful Constituent Assembly closed down almost all remaining democratic spaces, sparking widespread condemnation in the region and around the world. A negotiated restoration of democracy is vital if violence is to be avoided. Crisis Group aims to engage national players and the international community to build momentum for credible negotiations. We work to encourage successful third-party facilitation, including human rights and technical assistance mechanisms, and to help restore credible democratic and judicial systems.
As tens of thousands of Venezuelans stream into neighbouring countries, President Nicolás Maduro appears set to win elections on 20 May. In this Q&A, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for the Andes Phil Gunson looks ahead to the vote and its aftermath and explains why the crisis is likely to deepen.
Apparent attempt to assassinate President Maduro shook country, while govt’s new economic reform package widely expected to worsen economic and humanitarian crisis and intensify exodus of Venezuelans to neighbouring countries. Two drones carrying explosives blew up – one within 50 metres of Maduro – 4 Aug during military parade in Caracas; govt said seven soldiers injured; group calling themselves “Soldados de Franelas” claimed responsibility on social media without giving evidence. Maduro claimed outgoing Colombian President Santos was responsible; Santos dismissed as “ridiculous”. Security forces 7 Aug arrested opposition MP Juan Requesens, with govt claiming he helped leader of attack under orders from exiled opposition leader Julio Borges; Requesens’ family and colleagues alleged he was drugged to force televised confession. Govt charged Requesens with crimes including attempted assassination and treason, which he denied in court, and 8 Aug issued warrant for arrest of Borges, who denies involvement. Govt 20 Aug implemented delayed currency reform, cutting five zeroes off bolívar to create new “sovereign bolívar”; three days earlier, Maduro announced “magical” economic package, involving pegging new currency to Petro “crypto-currency” backed by oil reserves (representing an effective devaluation of 95%), and 35-fold increase in minimum wage, initially to be partly subsidised by govt; generated widespread concerns that measures will accelerate hyper-inflation crisis and cripple businesses. Several opposition parties 21 Aug held nationwide “general strike”, but response patchy. So-called “Supreme Court in exile” 15 Aug found Maduro guilty of corruption, sentenced him to jail term; National Assembly 21 Aug ratified sentence, calling on security forces to arrest him, in apparent manoeuvre by parts of opposition, principally in exile, to name alternative govt and seek military intervention. Venezuelans continued to flee country causing backlash in neighbouring countries; Peru and Ecuador announced entry restrictions while incident in Brazil 18 Aug saw residents in border town Pacaraima attack Venezuelans, prompting 1,200 to flee back across border. UN 24 Aug warned of exodus from Venezuela heading to “crisis moment” for region.
Venezuela’s socio-economic implosion is dragging in neighbours as hundreds of thousands of people flee the country, epidemics spread and violent crime spills over borders. International humanitarian support is needed and regional powers should push for a negotiated transition, including through threats of targeted sanctions.
Economic mismanagement, corruption and dwindling reserves have forced Venezuela into penury and now into missed payments and partial default on its debts. Full-scale, internationally supervised negotiations involving a restored parliament are essential to pave the way to a debt restructuring and a free, fair presidential election.
Violence is escalating in Venezuela, killing 70 people in over two months of ever-angrier popular protests against a government that is abandoning representative democracy. Regional states should avert a humanitarian catastrophe by pressuring the Maduro regime to withdraw plans to elect a phony constituent assembly on 30 July.
With a collapsing health care system, sky-rocketing inflation and crippling state controls, Venezuela is beset by unprecedented social and economic crises. To end the root problem of political paralysis, the Chavista government and opposition must use outside-mediated negotiation to restore democratic and responsible economic governance.
Venezuela is in full-fledged crisis: food and medicine are scarce, violent crime is surging, and the government is blocking democratic ways forward. The international community and the Organization of American States should press for political dialogue, the opening of legal paths to a presidential recall referendum in 2016, and permission for humanitarian aid to enter the country.
After a crushing defeat in parliamentary elections, Venezuela’s Chavista government needs to move away from confrontation. The executive must join the new legislative majority in a cooperation pact that can lead the country from deadlock to open democracy, and save it from a looming economic and humanitarian disaster.
People [in Venezuela] are moving to the countryside because you can more or less survive if you have a small plot of land and access to your own produce.
Increased prices can be charged to [Venezuelan] migrants because of their sheer desire to cross [the border to reach Colombia].
The prognosis [for Venezuela in] 2018 is further deterioration, humanitarian emergency, and an increased exodus of Venezuelans. Sustained domestic and international pressure will be required.
Venezuela is in a very, very deep economic hole. Hyperinflation is around 2,000%. Foreign reserves are well below $10 billion, and the productive economy is virtually in pieces.
The [Venezuelan] military needs [President] Maduro because they would rather not rule themselves. He makes life good for them. If you are a general and play by the rules you can make a lot of money.
The least you can ask of [Venezuelan] opposition is that it shows up and puts up a fight. There [aren't] many instances in history where governments have been brought down by electoral boycotts.
Crisis Group’s first update to our Watch List 2018 includes entries on Burundi’s dangerous referendum, militant Buddhists and anti-Muslim violence in Sri Lanka, the impact of the Venezuelan crisis on the region, and the situation in Yemen. This annual early-warning report identifies conflict situations in which prompt action by the European Union and its member states would generate stronger prospects for peace.
Originally published in Asia Times
Crisis Group's Andes Senior Analyst Phil Gunson explains how Venezuela’s socio-economic implosion is dragging in neighbours as hundreds of thousands of people flee the country, epidemics spread and violent crime spills over borders.
The Venezuelan government has dissolved the elected, opposition-led parliament and initiated de facto rule. Foreign governments and multilateral organisations should regard all government actions carried out in contravention of the 1999 constitution as invalid and press the government to take urgent steps toward the restoration of democracy.
Venezuela’s political crisis took another fateful turn on Sunday 30 July with the rigged election of an all-powerful assembly mandated to rewrite the constitution. In this Q&A, Senior Analyst for the Andes Phil Gunson says Sunday’s vote represents the end of what little democratic space still existed and takes the country on the path to dictatorship.