The U.S. Can Do More to Prevent an Israel-Iran War

The Middle East faces a moment of peril. Since Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and Israel responded with a brutal campaign in Gaza, the region has been on edge. The longer the Gaza war rages, the more likely it is to set off a regional war. Following the assassination in Tehran of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s political leader, a potentially calamitous cycle of escalation looms as Iran and its allies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and militias operating under the banner of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq and Syria, prepare to retaliate.

While the outlook is dire, recent history suggests a dangerous escalation cycle between the longtime adversaries can be contained. Nineteen dramatic days in April showed how it can be done. After an Israeli strike on an Iranian consular facility in Damascus killed several senior commanders from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Tehran launched an unprecedented and massive direct strike against Israel.

A degree of forewarning; the fact that Iran’s network of nonstate allies largely held their fire; and aerial defenses from Israel, together with the United States and other Western and some Arab countries, limited the damage, and Israel responded with a limited strike inside Iran.

But history may not repeat itself.

Read the full article in Foreign Policy.