Key Features of Iran’s Nuclear Program

Judging the nuclear agreement with Iran should be based on the answers to two simple questions: will the world be safer with a final accord implemented than without? And, does this deal offer a better framework for Iran’s nuclear program than the status quo?

During the period of mutual escalation (2006-2013) there was a race in which Iran built more centrifuges as the rest of the world slapped on more sanctions. Only the period of negotiations (2013-2015) halted the forward march of Iran’s nuclear program.

What happens next depends on ratification and implementation of the July 2015 deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between Iran and the international community, represented by the EU3+3/P5+1.

If the deal goes into force, the world will know the limited number of centrifuges and the reduced size of stockpiles in Iran’s nuclear program for the next ten to fifteen years. But without the JCPOA, we risk returning to the period before the negotiations. This will not bring us renewed talks on a better agreement, but more likely to a rapid new expansion of the dispute that could bring the world to the brink of catastrophic confrontation.