Iraq has been successively ravaged by the 1980-1988 war with Iran, crippling sanctions after its invasion of Kuwait in 1990, internal conflict after the U.S.-led invasion of 2003, and the transnational jihadists of Islamic State after 2014. Its multiple challenges further include sectarian violence and Kurdish separatism. Crisis Group aims to promote locally-centred stabilisation and better governance of post-ISIS Iraq in order to reduce the risk of violent flare-ups in liberated areas and mitigate the impact of foreign strategic competition, notably between Iran and the U.S. Through field research, advocacy and engagement with all sides, we urge countries involved in the anti-ISIS campaign to support security sector and institutional reform in Iraq as well. On the Kurdish front, we urge a return to a UN-led process to resolve the question of the disputed territories, especially Kirkuk, and of oil revenue-sharing.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Lahib Higel, Crisis Group’s Iraq expert, to discuss the recent escalation between U.S. forces and Iran-backed groups in Iraq and Syria and what it means for the presence of American troops in Iraq.
U.S. launched wave of retaliatory airstrikes against Iran-backed groups following killing of soldiers in Jan, as calls grew for foreign troops’ expulsion; hostilities between Türkiye and Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) continued.
U.S. retaliated against Iran-backed groups, which appeared to cease attacks in Iraq. In response to 28 Jan drone attack killing three U.S. soldiers in Jordan, attributed to Iran-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq, U.S. 2 Feb launched most substantial retaliatory operation in Iraq and Syria since escalatory cycle began in Oct with strikes on more than 85 military targets; in Iraq, targets included bases and weapons facilities of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hashd al-Shaabi, and resistance factions. Notably, strikes killed sixteen Hashd fighters and one civilian and injured at least two dozen in al-Qaim and Akasht, Anbar province. Govt accused U.S. of breaching Iraqi sovereignty. In further escalation, U.S. drone strike 7 Feb killed Kata’ib Hizbollah commander Abu Baqr al-Saeedi and two others in Baghdad. Following Iran’s Quds Forces commander’s visit to Baghdad late Jan where he reportedly instructed armed groups to lie low, no attacks from Iran-backed groups were recorded, despite Kata’ib Hizbollah rescinding its late Jan suspension of attacks; for now, it appears that escalation has reached ceiling, although attacks conducted by Iraqi groups in Syria may continue.
U.S. attacks fuelled calls for withdrawal of foreign troops. Following U.S. assassination of al-Saeedi, resistance and Hashd al-Shaabi leaders demanded govt deliver timeline for ending U.S.-led coalition’s mandate. Over 100 parliamentarians 8 Feb signed motion to pass law expelling foreign troops; however, parliament 10 Feb failed to convene for vote on expelling U.S. troops, as Kurdish, Sunni, and almost half of Shia legislators boycotted session, indicating widespread reluctance for rushed withdrawal. Iraq and U.S 11 Feb resumed talks on drawdown of forces.
Türkiye-PKK conflict continued in north. Turkish defence ministry 4 Feb announced killing or capturing five PKK fighters. Turkish defence ministry 17 Feb announced PKK attack on base in northern Iraq killed Turkish soldier. Security officials said alleged Turkish strike 20 Feb killed two in Akre region, Dohuk governorate.
Installing a monarchy that wasn’t very popular and that was overthrown in 1958 was the ignition for the many problems that the modern Iraqi state has faced.
The 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq infused the country’s Kurds with renewed hope of loosening the bonds that tie them to Baghdad. But subsequent events have dampened that spirit. Despite considerable progress toward autonomy, the historical Kurdish predicament endures.
The core lesson of the 2003 Iraq war is that ruptures in autocratic settings are inherently fraught with risk. Policymakers should approach proposed interventions in such settings with caution.
The architects of the 2003 invasion of Iraq had grand visions of transforming the Middle East in favour of U.S. interests. Two decades later, it is clear that the venture was a failure not just in that respect, but in most others as well.
Iraq has a new government after months of delay, but various challenges to stability persist. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023, Crisis Group explains how the EU and its member states can help support necessary reforms.
This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood talks to Crisis Group’s Iraq expert Lahib Higel about the crisis in Iraq, with parties unable to form a government almost a year after elections and the deadliest clashes the Iraqi capital has seen in years erupting in late August.
Demonstrators are occupying parliament in Baghdad, with Iraq’s main political camps deeply divided. The standoff need not turn violent, if the country’s leaders can shift to dialogue with support from foreign partners.
Sinjar has yet to recover from the ravages of 2014, when ISIS subjected the population to unrelenting terror. Thousands remain displaced. To persuade them to return, the Iraqi federal and Kurdish regional governments will need help from the current residents in improving governance and security.
Turkey is increasingly relying on airpower in its fight against the PKK. New parties have been drawn into the conflict as it spreads to new theatres in Iraq and Syria, which, for now at least, complicates potential efforts to settle things down.
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