Israel and its allies fended off almost all the armed drones and missiles fired by Iran on 13 April. This outcome affords both sides a face-saving way out of what could otherwise be a ruinous broader confrontation.
CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
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Iran’s government appears to have concluded that the Damascus strike [by Israel] was a strategic inflection point, where failure to retaliate would carry more downsides t...
I don't think Iran wants to sacrifice Hezbollah or bring it into the fray [with Israel]. It is the top of its spear, and Iran wants to preserve it.
In the same way that we hold Iran accountable for actions of its proxies ..., [the Iranian regime holds] the U.S. responsible for Israeli actions.
Especially but certainly not exclusively over Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, tensions between the [Iran and the U.S.] remain significant.
This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Mairav Zonszein, Michael Hanna, Lahib Higel and Robert Blecher to talk about the exchange of strikes between Iran and Israel and the implications for Gaza.
Iran and Israel May Not Be Finished.
An isolated leader who faced widespread criticism a week ago now has the backing of the West and has deflected global attention from Gaza.
Iran and Israel are trading threats and counter-threats following the 1 April strike, attributed to Israel, on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. It is imperative that both sides avoid further escalation – or an all-out Middle East conflagration could result.
Turnout in Iran’s national polls was historically low, marking the third vote in a row in which most people stayed away. In parallel, conservatives tightened their hold on the Islamic Republic’s institutions. The two trends together highlight the growing gap between state and society.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Lahib Higel, Crisis Group’s Iraq expert, to discuss the recent escalation between U.S. forces and Iran-backed groups in Iraq and Syria and what it means for the presence of American troops in Iraq.
This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson talk with Camille Lons, visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, about the EU's response to the crisis in the Red Sea and plans for an EU-led naval mission.
The Conflict Has Empowered Tehran—but Also Fueled Its Sense of Vulnerability
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