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Libya

Implementation of the UN-mediated 2015 political deal that established the Presidency Council and Tripoli-based interim government has been hindered by claims of illegitimacy by rival political forces. Although the framework of the deal is the only viable path to resolving the Libyan conflict, Crisis Group encourages all parties to negotiate a new government with nationwide legitimacy. Important steps were taken in July 2017, when rivals President al-Serraj and General Haftar agreed to a ceasefire agreement and to hold elections in 2018. Yet Libya remains deeply divided and failure to implement the agreement could adversely affect regional security as well as increase migrant flows into the European Union. Crisis Group aims to inform the international community, as well as national and regional actors, about the importance prioritising economic development and basic political consensus as  the main stepping stones for sustainable peace.

CrisisWatch Libya

Unchanged Situation

UN unveiled revised political roadmap and participants in international conference in Palermo, Italy, endorsed it, but deep divisions between rival Libyan leaders and competing agendas emerged. At UN Security Council 8 Nov, UN envoy Ghassan Salamé said elections would take place in 2019, acknowledging for first time that they will not be held in Dec as planned. Salamé presented revised action plan consisting of National Conference in Jan 2019 and establishment of “electoral framework” by spring 2019. At international conference in Palermo, Italy 12-13 Nov, stakeholders expressed support for revised action plan but heads of delegations representing Tripoli-based UN-backed Presidency Council, Tripoli-based High State Council, Tobruk-based parliament House of Representatives (HoR) and Field Marshal Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) did not sit side-by-side. While nominally supporting UN efforts, delegations disagreed on which elections should be held and what powers, if any, National Conference should wield. Haftar refused to attend any conference event, instead took part in unscheduled and inconclusive meeting with Tripoli-based PM Serraj 13 Nov, alongside leaders from Russia, Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, France, Italy, UN and EU. Disregarding new UN action plan, Tobruk-based HoR 27 Nov claimed that previous day it passed constitutional referendum law and constitutional amendment that recognises modified version of 2015 Libyan Political Agreement (which HoR never recognised) and requires appointment of new three-member Presidency Council and separate PM. Some HoR members and their political opponents in Tripoli contest legality of HoR vote and substance of approved legislation. Islamic State (ISIS) claimed 23 Nov attack in southern town of Tazerbo that killed nine police. Score-settling between militias in Tripoli continued: former head of Tripoli Revolutionary Brigades Haythem Tajouri allegedly killed three of group’s leaders. U.S. 30 Nov said its airstrike previous day near al-Uwaynat in south killed eleven al-Qaeda militants.

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

5 Sep 2018
In terms of dynamics and movement of armed groups on the ground [in Libya], I would say it’s even worse than 2011 after the fall of Gaddafi. At least in 2011 they had a sense of optimism and respect for one another. Now they are all trying to carve out territory but with deep distrust and animosity with each other. The Independent

Claudia Gazzini

Consulting Analyst, Libya
1 Jun 2018
Without more progress on the security and economic track [in Libya] and with a Parliament that is barely functioning, it is extremely unlikely that appropriate security and legal conditions will be in place to hold elections. The World Weekly

Claudia Gazzini

Consulting Analyst, Libya
4 Jan 2018
It’s a sign the Qaddafists are mobilizing, trying to have their say [for the first time since 2011]. Libya’s getting more complicated. A breakthrough doesn’t seem imminent. Bloomberg

Issandr El Amrani

Project Director, North Africa
20 Dec 2017
[Libyan military strongman Khalifa Haftar does not have] sufficient strength or support [to take power in Libya]. He faces particularly strong opposition from (rivals in) the west, especially in Misrata. AFP

Issandr El Amrani

Project Director, North Africa
24 Sep 2017
[A U.S. military] strike [against ISIS positions in Libya] seems to indicate Libya is mainly an anti-terrorism file and only subsequently a political file [for the U.S. government]. The Washington Post

Claudia Gazzini

Consulting Analyst, Libya
19 Sep 2017
Now the problem is that those [political] factions [across Libya] have fragmented internally. It's even more difficult to solicit representative views. Reuters

Claudia Gazzini

Consulting Analyst, Libya

Latest Updates

Libya’s Economic Reforms Fall Short

While Libya’s first reform package since the fall of Gaddafi in 2011 has had positive initial effects, more must be done to improve the deteriorating economic situation in the country. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2018 annual early-warning update for European policy makers, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to address some of the packages’ core issues and press the government to create more thorough economic reforms.

Also available in Italiano

Libya’s Unhealthy Focus on Personalities

The surprise electoral defeat of one Libyan leader and the hospitalisation of a rival show the error of relying solely on individuals to achieve national reconciliation in Libya. All sides in Libya’s conflict should focus instead on making institutions more representative and improving governance.

Tackling the MENA Region’s Intersecting Conflicts

How can the dizzying changes, intersecting crises and multiplying conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa since the 2011 Arab uprisings be best understood, let alone responded to? This long-form commentary by MENA Program Director Joost Hiltermann and our team steps back for a better look and proposes new approaches.

Also available in العربية

New Risks in Libya as Khalifa Haftar Dismisses UN-backed Accord

Khalifa Haftar, who rules eastern Libya, has dismissed the two-year-old, UN-backed accord about how the country should be run. Haftar’s regional and international partners should act now to mitigate this new risk of escalation over his apparent ambition to rule Libya on his own.

It’s Not a Sprint

The fraught history of the military intervention shows that EU engagement in Libya should first and foremost be guided by strategic vision.

Originally published in Körber-Stiftung

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Claudia Gazzini

Consulting Analyst, Libya