Tunisia, home to the first and arguably most successful of the 2011 Arab uprisings, appears to be backsliding in its transition to democracy. In mid-2021, President Kaïs Saïed consolidated powers in the executive through a series of steps widely regarded as unconstitutional. Opposition is growing though the president retains a strong social base. The polarisation could threaten stability, particularly as it intersects with persistent budgetary woes and popular discontent over economic and other inequality. Crisis Group works to help resolve these tensions in a country that remains critical for security in North Africa as a whole.
Along with democratic backsliding, Tunisia is facing an economic crunch, magnified by foreign debt it is struggling to repay. Outside actors should keep pressing the government on human rights, while looking for ways – chiefly, a revised IMF loan – to stave off the worst-case scenarios.
Judicial authorities sentenced several govt critics to prison, including Islamist leader Rached Ghannouchi; President Saïed sent mixed signals on economic policy.
Judicial repression of opposition intensified. Tunis Court 1 Feb sentenced Rached Ghannouchi, imprisoned president of Islamist-inspired An-Nahda movement, and Rafik Abdessalam, his son-in-law and former FM, to three years’ imprisonment on charges of illegal foreign financing of their party. Five imprisoned senior politicians, including members of opposition coalition National Salvation Front, 11 Feb went on hunger strike to protest arbitrary detention; Ghannouchi 19 Feb announced joining strike in solidarity. Tunis courts 23 Jan sentenced former President Marzouki to eight years in prison in absentia for allegedly attempting to overthrow govt; next day sentenced prominent opposition figure Jawher Ben Mbarek to six months in prison on charges of conspiring against state security. Authorities 29 Feb arrested Tunisian General Labour Union’s deputy secretary-general, Tahar Mezzi, on undisclosed charges, before releasing him next day.
Election cycle proceeded despite widespread voter disaffection. Second round of local council elections, which will determine composition of second chamber of parliament, 4 Feb took place in 800 of 2,155 electoral districts. Amid boycott from opposition parties, voter turnout reached just 12.44%, almost as low as in first round. Independent High Authority for Elections 12 Feb said presidential election would be held in 2024 in accordance with Constitution.
Saïed sent mixed signals on economic policy. Parliament 6 Feb adopted amendment allowing “exceptional” direct financing of budget by Central Bank, sparking concerns over latter’s independence, as well as fiscal stability and debt burden. Authorities in following days used foreign currency reserves to pay for $850mn Eurobond, leading to 20% fall in foreign currency reserves by mid-Feb. Meanwhile, Saïed 15 Feb appointed Fethi Nouri as new Central Bank governor to replace Marouane Abassi, whose mandate expired; Nouri has demonstrated commitment to orthodox economic policies as member of Central Bank’s board of directors since 2016.
The Europeans feel that they are on the front line of instability in North Africa and in the Mediterranean.
Tunisia’s socio-economic woes could get worse if it defaults on its debt. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023 – Autumn Update, Crisis Group advises the EU to encourage a revised loan deal with the IMF but to pressure Tunis on governance and human rights.
Political tensions fuelled by President Saïed’s power grab and subsequent policies risk sending a crisis-ridden Tunisia over the edge. Saïed should organise a national dialogue and return to a negotiated constitutional order. In response, international partners should offer new economic perspectives for the country.
Tunisia faces multiple economic and social challenges following the suspension of parliament and the dismissal of the prime minister. This current state of emergency could fuel political turmoil and violence in the country. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2022, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to maintain bilateral cooperation with Tunisia and offer further economic incentives.
On 25 July, Tunisia’s President Kaïs Saïed invoked the constitution to seize emergency powers after months of crisis. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Riccardo Fabiani says compromise between Saïed and his parliamentary opponents remains possible, but so does grave violence.
Despite a marked decline in jihadist attacks in Tunisia since 2016, the government persists with repressive and unfocused counter-terrorism measures. The Tunisian authorities should make criminal justice and security reforms to prevent an upsurge in violence.
Tunisia’s new government and president represent political forces that emerged in late 2019’s elections, stirring up populism, polarisation and tensions. With judicious support from the EU, the new political class should focus on the economy and choose a path of dialogue and administrative reform.
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