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On the Horizon: March - August 2024

This edition includes entries on Cameroon, South Sudan, Venezuela and Western Sahara, offering a snapshot into emergent conflicts and crises in the next three to six months in a clear, accessible format, identifying triggers, key dates to watch and potential behaviour of conflict actors, to support global conflict prevention efforts. 

Video / Latin America & Caribbean

Fear and Silence: Life Under the Gaitanistas

In this video, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for Colombia Elizabeth Dickinson talks with communities living in areas with a strong presence of the Gaitanista Self-Defence Force.

Podcast / Europe & Central Asia

Can Nuclear Arms Control Survive a Changing World Order?

This week on War & Peace, Olga and Elissa are joined by Joe Cirincione, national security analyst and a leading expert on non-proliferation, to discuss the nuclear escalation risks of the war in Ukraine, U.S. nuclear policy and the looming collapse of global arms control.

Report / Latin America & Caribbean

The Unsolved Crime in “Total Peace”: Dealing with Colombia’s Gaitanistas

The Gaitanistas, Colombia’s largest and richest armed and criminal group, remain outside the government’s initiative for dialogue with all the country’s armed organisations. To avoid jeopardising other peace processes and to protect civilians, Bogotá should seek gradual talks with the Gaitanistas, while maintaining security pressure.

Also available in Español
Podcast / Latin America & Caribbean

Haiti in Freefall

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Diego Da Rin and Renata Segura about a new offensive by gangs in Haiti, efforts to form a transitional government and prospects for a Kenya-led police mission to restore order.

Commentary / Middle East & North Africa

Closing Circles: Iran’s Exclusionary 2024 Elections

Turnout in Iran’s national polls was historically low, marking the third vote in a row in which most people stayed away. In parallel, conservatives tightened their hold on the Islamic Republic’s institutions. The two trends together highlight the growing gap between state and society. 

Also available in العربية
Commentary / Africa

Lessons from the Missed Opportunity in Puntland’s Polls

Elections in the Somali state of Puntland were a mixed bag. The vote was peaceful, but it followed an indirect model in which most have no voice. The re-elected president should reconcile with opponents while Somalia draws wider lessons from a failed experiment with democratisation. 

Op-Ed / Middle East & North Africa

How Israel Mastered Information Warfare in Gaza

Pro-Israel misinformation aimed at dismissing and discrediting Palestinian narratives is the fruit of a decade-long effort.

Podcast / Middle East & North Africa

Starving Gaza

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Azmi Keshawi, Robert Blecher and Mairav Zonszein about the UN’s warning that famine is looming in Gaza.

Commentary / Asia

Flare-Ups and Frustration as Kashmir Waits for a Vote

Indian authorities speak confidently of a new era in the region of Jammu and Kashmir, for decades a hotbed of separatism, insurgency and tensions with neighbouring Pakistan. But with New Delhi stalling on promised elections, local frustration continues to fuel unrest.

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