Commentary

Crisis Group Lebanon Senior Analyst Sahar Atrache discusses how Lebanon remains resilient in the face of Syria’s violent collapse – at least for now.

International Crisis Group worked regularly on Nepal from 2003-2012, publishing 33 reports in the period leading up to and following the 2006 Comprehensive Peace Agreement that ended the country’s decade-long civil war. Since 2012, Crisis Group has maintained a watching brief on the country.

Crisis Group Sri Lanka Senior Analyst Alan Keenan discusses how much President Sirisena, previously a minor figure in Rajapaksa’s government, has changed politics on the South Asian island.

Crisis Group Central Africa Project Director Thierry Vircoulon updates the unfolding developments in Burundi.

La tentative de coup d’Etat menée par le major général Godefroid Niyombaré le 13 mai 2015 a échoué au bout de 48 heures. Mais le fait que des unités militaires clés soient restées fidèles au président Pierre Nkurunziza n’a pas résolu la crise provoquée par son coup de force pour briguer un troisième mandat. Thierry Vircoulon, directeur du projet Afrique centrale, met à jour notre discussion du 13 mai sur les derniers développements au Burundi.

Le général burundais Godefroid Niyombaré a déclaré destituer le président Pierre Nkurunziza de ses fonctions présidentielles le 13 mai 2015 car ce dernier était candidat pour un troisième mandat en violation de la Constitution. Bien que l’entourage de Nkurunziza ait initialement nié qu’un putsch avait lieu, le major général Niyombaré a dit préparer un gouvernement de transition avec la société civile. Nous avons discuté avec Thierry Vircoulon, directeur du projet Afrique centrale, à propos des derniers développements survenus au Burundi.

The work of the International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) played a crucial role in Guatemala’s recent successes against corruption.

Three members of Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa staff consider the implications of Al-Shabaab’s longstanding ambition to broaden its campaigns from Somalia into the wider East Africa region.

Crisis Group followed Nigeria’s 28 March presidential elections from Lagos, Kano and Port Harcourt. Nnamdi Obasi, Nigeria Senior Analyst, discusses the impact of the historic polls, President-elect Muhammadu Buhari’s challenges and the reactions in the Niger Delta.

This commentary is drawn from a speech delivered by Crisis Group’s Middle East and North Africa Program Director Joost Hiltermann at the Sulaimani Forum in Suleimaniya, Iraq, on 11 March 2015. 

Nnamdi Obasi, Senior Analyst, Nigeria, discusses possible outcomes of the general elections rescheduled for 28 March and 11 April, and how the international community should prepare for post-election unrest that looks increasingly likely.

In this Q&A, Crisis Group’s Tunisia Senior Analyst Michaël Béchir Ayari discusses the political fallout of the 18 March attack on Tunis’s Bardo Museum which killed 23 people, mostly tourists.

In this Q&A, Crisis Group’s Libya Senior Analyst Claudia Gazzini discusses the upsurge in Islamic State activity in Libya.

So far mostly silent, regional states and organisations, as well as the international community at large, must act firmly, not with unilateral sanctions, but with pressure for dialogue between the two sides.

Crisis Group’s Africa Program assembled this Question & Answer paper following the recent postponement by six weeks of Nigeria’s general elections that were due on 14 and 28 February.

In this interview, Crisis Group’s Central Asia Project Director, Deirdre Tynan, speaks about the main findings of Crisis Group’s report, Syria Calling: Radicalisation in Central Asia, and explains that the Islamic State is fostering new links among radicals within the region.

The upcoming Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD) summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, to be held on 30 January, is a rare window of opportunity for the regional body, and its partners, to compel South Sudan’s warring parties to make the compromises necessary for peace. 

In the three posts below, the director of Crisis Group’s Latin America and Caribbean program, Javier Ciurlizza, and our vice president and special adviser on Latin America, Mark Schneider, look ahead to how the U.S. and Cuban moves could transform the wider region.

En las siguentes tres entradas, el director del programa de Crisis Group para América Latina y el Caribe, Javier Ciurlizza, y nuestro vicepresidente y asesor especial para América Latina, Mark Schneider, anticipan cómo las medidas que adopten EE.UU y Cuba podrían transformar toda la región.

In the following Q and A, Crisis Group Senior Iran Analyst Ali Vaez discusses what the new deadline means and how the talks might move forward.

Thibaud Lesueur, Crisis Group’s Central Africa analyst, recently visited refugee camps in Southern Chad to assess the fate of refugees and the regional impact of CAR’s crisis.

Thibaud Lesueur, analyste pour l’Afrique centrale à l’International Crisis Group, s’est rendu dans les camps de réfugiés au sud du Tchad pour évaluer la situation, le sort des réfugiés ainsi que l’impact de la crise centrafricaine sur la région.

In this Q&A, Ofer Zalzberg, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for the Middle East, discusses the growing controversies concerning the Holy Esplanade.

In this Q and A, Hugh Pope, deputy director of Crisis Group’s Europe and Central Asia Program, discusses Turkey’s latest change in policy towards Syria, Iraq and the coalition against Islamic State.

This interview with Crisis Group’s Project Director for Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria and Senior Middle East and North Africa Adviser, Peter Harling, is translated and republished here with permission from Le Point.

In this translated interview, Ofer Zalzberg, Crisis Group’s senior Middle East and North Africa analyst, speaks to Le Monde about the factors that have contributed to the escalation of the Israeli military offensive.

Crisis Group’s Africa Program staff assembled this Q&A following Boko Haram’s attack of 25 February. Crisis Group will release a full-length report on Boko Haram in mid-March.

In this Q&A, Mary Speck, Crisis Group’s Mexico and Central America Project Director, discusses the significance of Guzmán’s arrest for the narcotics trade, for the state’s fight against organised crime and for Mexicans caught in drug-related violence that has claimed an estimated 70,000 lives over eight years.

Mary Speck (@speckmary), analiza en este documento de preguntas y respuestas, la importancia de la detención de Guzmán para el comercio de narcóticos, para la lucha del Estado contra la delincuencia organizada y para los mexicanos atrapados en el ciclo de violencia relacionada con el narcotráfico, que ha costado la vida de un estimado de 70,000 personas en los últimos ocho años. (Ver informe de Crisis Group: El desafío de Peña Nieto: los cárteles criminales y el Estado de Derecho en México).

The Colombian government and negotiators for the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) agreed on Wednesday 6 November that FARC would be able to participate in democratic politics once a final peace agreement is ratified. Javier Ciurlizza, Latin America Program Director, discusses the implications of this advance in the negotiations.

How to make sure conflict does not recur in north-eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.

Dans le Nord-Est de la RDC, comment en finir avec une menace résiduelle

Has Dennis Rodman Opened the Door to Pyongyang?

A new leader’s hard-line tactics may backfire.

Some recent moves by Sri Lanka meant to show it was finally confronting the country’s entrenched culture of impunity have been dramatically undone by two incidents this month. 

Too many transitions of power in Africa result in bloodshed. Crisis Group's Richard Atwood examines the causes of violence and ways to prevent it. This is the executive summary of a policy briefing submitted to the European Parliament.

Vincent Foucher, analyste principal de Crisis Group pour la Guinée-Bissau, examine la situation politique actuelle du pays après le retour des militaires sur la scène politique en avril 2010, le rôle de l’Angola, et les mesures à envisager au niveau national et régional afin d’éviter un blocage.

The U.S. is set to send yet more money to Pakistan's schools, but if it only goes into the same failing system, it will once again be money wasted.