Repeated attacks on oil tankers have worsened Iran’s relations with the U.S. and Gulf states since 2019. Washington should rejoin the 2015 nuclear deal so Tehran can normalise its oil trade, while Western states should push for greater multilateral action to protect international shipping.
Sinjar has yet to recover from the ravages of 2014, when ISIS subjected the population to unrelenting terror. Thousands remain displaced. To persuade them to return, the Iraqi federal and Kurdish regional governments will need help from the current residents in improving governance and security.
Aleppo was devastated by bombing and shelling during the Syrian war. It remains unsafe, with residents subject to shakedowns by the regime’s security forces and various militias. Damascus and its outside backers should curb this predation as a crucial first step toward the city’s recovery.
Adversaries of Yemen’s Huthi rebels say they will never negotiate in good faith. Others think they might, given the right mix of incentives. With a nationwide truce in place, diplomats should give the latter hypothesis a shot.
Le régime d’exception instauré en juillet 2021 par le président Kaïs Saïed pourrait faire chavirer une Tunisie déjà en crise. Saïed devrait revenir à un ordre constitutionnel négocié à l’issue d’un dialogue national. Les partenaires internationaux devraient l’y inciter en offrant de nouvelles perspectives économiques au pays.
Little has changed in the calculations of the main actors in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, despite the dramatic upsurge in violence almost a year ago. To prevent a reprise, outside powers should push for interim steps as they revisit the core assumptions of their diplomacy.
Discord about how to resolve a political impasse has once more put Libya in danger of fracturing in two. The priorities are for the camps to agree on a way forward and for outside powers to stay united in backing whatever peaceful option Libyans choose.
We are in a situation where for the first time . . . Iran has the ability to break out, have capacity to produce enough fissile material for a [nuclear] weapon, undetected.
[The war in Ukraine] has exposed once again the fragility of Egypt’s political and economic model.
Egypt is something of a special case vis-a-vis the West because of both its robust relations with Russia and being a key US partner in the Middle East.
There’s a real frustration among Gulf Arab states with the way the West is dealing with this conflict [in Ukraine] versus how it has with other conflicts in the region.
None of the foreign actors backing the two Libyan sides want to compromise the rekindled dialogue for the sake of launching a war in Libya against the other side.
Israel recycles the same heavy-handed response to what it sees as Palestinian provocation.
The CrisisWatch Digest Lebanon offers a monthly one-page snapshot of conflict-related country trends in a clear, accessible format, using a map of the region to pinpoint developments.
This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood asks Crisis Group experts how the Ukraine war has affected peacemaking elsewhere, notably Nagorno-Karabakh, where Moscow plays a major diplomatic role, and Libya, where the Kremlin backs one of the conflict’s main protagonists.
This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood talks to experts Dareen Khalifa and Jerome Drevon about ISIS in Syria after the death of its leader Abdullah Qardash, the precarious calm that prevails across the country and the evolution of al-Qaeda’s former affiliate in the north west, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
Taiz, a city in central Yemen, is besieged by Huthi rebels and practically cut off from the rest of the country. Restored road access would save lives and build trust that could help bring peace to Yemen, but time is short.
Originally published in New Lines Institute