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Asia

CrisisWatch Asia

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 80 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.

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Trends for Last Month January 2020

Deteriorated Situations

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Improved Situations

Thailand

Outlook for This Month February 2020

Conflict Risk Alerts

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Resolution Opportunities

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Contributor

President & CEO
Rob_Malley

In his introduction to this month’s edition of CrisisWatch, our President Robert Malley reflects on the Trump administration's "ignominious vision" for Israeli-Palestinian peace and growing instability in the Sahel. He also marks the 48th birthday of our colleague and friend Michael Kovrig, who spent it behind the walls of a Chinese prison.

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

18 Feb 2020
It’s unclear if other parties will openly break with the [Afghan] government’s line. Wall Street Journal

Andrew Watkins

Senior Analyst, Afghanistan
12 Feb 2020
I think the reason [for the new talks in Thailand] is that [the Muslim separatists] recognize that the conflict is not going to end on the battlefield for them; it's going to have to end at the negotiating table. Voice of America

Matthew Wheeler

Senior Analyst, South East Asia
11 Feb 2020
Looks like U.S.-Taliban deal is imminent. That will be the biggest milestone by far in 10 years of off-and-on efforts to launch an Afghan peace process. VOA

Laurel Miller

Program Director, Asia
22 Jan 2020
As difficult as the [peace process in Thailand] has been up to this point, the most difficult work remains to be done. AFP

Matthew Wheeler

Senior Analyst, South East Asia
21 Jan 2020
[Ri Son Gwon's] appointment means Kim is putting in place the people he thinks will implement his marching orders. Washington Post

Duyeon Kim

Senior Adviser, North East Asia & Nuclear Policy
18 Jan 2020
The overall impression is that Myanmar is being cautious about Chinese investment, especially ahead of elections planned later in the year. ABC

Richard Horsey

Senior Adviser, Myanmar

Latest Updates

Commentary / Asia

A Dangerous Sea Change in Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka’s Rajapaksa government has initiated fundamental changes to policies on ethnic relations and the rule of law. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2020 for European policymakers, Crisis Group urges the EU to continue its pressure on Colombo to strengthen rights-respecting governance while making it clear that it will not support programs which encourage political repression or discrimination.

Q&A / Asia

Myanmar at the International Court of Justice

On 10 December, the International Court of Justice convened to hear an opening request in a genocide case filed against Myanmar for its atrocities against Rohingya Muslims. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Richard Horsey looks at the legal and diplomatic stakes of these proceedings.

Op-Ed / Asia

Why China must send Michael Kovrig home

Michael Kovrig’s detention is unjust and inhumane. It should not have lasted one hour, let alone one year.

Originally published in The Washington Post

Q&A / Asia

Sri Lanka’s Presidential Election Brings Back a Polarising Wartime Figure

Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s decisive victory in Sri Lanka’s presidential election reflects voters’ concerns over security, poor economic prospects and ineffective governance – but also indicates the country’s dangerous ethnic polarisation. Many worry that Rajapaksa, a Sinhalese nationalist, will energise anti-Muslim campaigning and further alienate the Tamil community.

Commentary / Asia

Sri Lanka Election Sparks Fear of Return to Violent Past

Sri Lanka’s powerful Rajapaksa family appears to be making a political comeback, and presidential front runner Gotabaya Rajapaksa has a troubled, violent history with Tamils and Muslims. These groups and others worry Gotobaya’s election will leave them more vulnerable, and threatens fragile democratic progress after decades of war.

Our People

Samina Ahmed

Project Director, South Asia and Senior Asia Adviser

Alan Keenan

Senior Consultant, Sri Lanka
akeenan23

Matthew Wheeler

Senior Analyst, South East Asia
mattzwheeler

Richard Horsey

Senior Adviser, Myanmar
rshorsey

Graeme Smith

Senior Consultant, Afghanistan
smithkabul

Michael Kovrig

Senior Adviser, North East Asia
MichaelKovrig

Borhan Osman

Senior Analyst, Afghanistan

Laurel Miller

Program Director, Asia
LaurelMillerICG