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CrisisWatch Ukraine

Unchanged Situation

Russia continued operations to fully occupy Donbas, Ukrainian forces announced counter-offensive to liberate southern coast, and Russia, Ukraine, Türkiye and UN struck grain deal. Ukrainian forces 2 July retreated from Lysychansk, Severodonetsk’s twin city in east. Russian army 3 July declared it had taken full control of Luhansk region and throughout month continued operations to bring remainder of Donetsk region under its control. Notably, Russian forces 5 July struck market in Sloviansk, killing at least two; missile 9 July hit apartment building in Chasiv Yar city, killing over 40. Missile 29 July struck prison in separatist-held Olenivka town, killing around 50 Ukrainian prisoners of war; Moscow and Kyiv traded blame for attack. In south, attack 2 July on building near Black Sea port of Odesa killed at least 21. Month saw some attacks in centre and west; missile 14 July struck Vinnytsia city centre, killing 23; Russian forces 28 July struck Kyiv, Chernihiv regions for first time in weeks. Ukrainian forces used their new Western-manufactured artillery with longer range to destroy dozens of Russian ammunition depots. Notably, 3 July they targeted military base outside occupied Melitopol city, which mayor claimed killed 200 Russian troops; 11 July struck warehouse in Nova Kakhovka city. Ukraine’s defence minister 11 July announced counter-offensive to liberate southern coast; Ukrainian forces 19, 20, 27 July shelled Antonivskyi bridge across Dnipro river in bid to blockade Russian-occupied Kherson city. Meanwhile, govt continued lobbying for long-range ammunition to target Russian-occupied Crimea; U.S. under-secretary of defense cautioned of their escalatory potential; Russian official 17 July said attack on Crimea would trigger “judgment day scenario”. Drone 31 July exploded in Crimea's Sevastopol city, which Russian officials said they would investigate as terrorist attack. Elsewhere in occupied territories, low-intensity insurgency continued. On humanitarian front, UN 19 July estimated 5.9mn refugees and around 6.3mn displaced by war. On international front, Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe mission to Ukraine 1 July ceased activities after Russia vetoed its renewal. Russia, Ukraine, Türkiye and UN 22 July signed deal in Istanbul opening Black Sea ports to grain exports; Russia next day struck Odesa port, sparking outcry from Ukraine’s allies.

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

7 Jul 2022
I think Russia's plan right now is to capture Donbas [in Ukraine] and to see what they can do next. Newsweek

Oleg Ignatov

Senior Analyst, Russia
24 Jun 2022
There is a real premium [for the G7 leaders] on conveying unity and a credible response because this war [in Ukraine] is not going to be short-lived. Time

Michael Wahid Hanna

Program Director, U.S.
8 May 2022
Given the personnel shortages, given the equipment shortages on both sides [to the war in Ukraine], but especially on the Russian side, I do wonder how long they can actually keep it up. CBC

Olga Oliker

Program Director, Europe and Central Asia
2 Apr 2022
Few if any wars have been launched with as much nuclear posturing as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. I think the bottom line is that Russia's doctrine allows nuclear use in case of existential threat to the state. RFE

Olga Oliker

Program Director, Europe and Central Asia
15 Mar 2022
Having watched how the Russians fight wars over the years, this is nowhere close to all they can do. Washington Post

Olga Oliker

Program Director, Europe and Central Asia
2 Mar 2022
[The UN resolution] isn’t going to stop Russian forces in their stride, but it’s a pretty enormous diplomatic win for the Ukrainians and the US, and everyone who has got behind them. The Guardian

Richard Gowan

UN Director

Latest Updates

Finland’s NATO Application, Western Policy in Ukraine and the War’s Global Fallout

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood talks with former Finnish Prime Minister and Crisis Group trustee Alexander Stubb about Finland’s decision to apply for NATO membership, Russia’s war in Ukraine and the war’s global repercussions.

100 Days of War in Ukraine: Russia’s Offensive in the East

This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson talk about the fighting in eastern Ukraine, which continues more than 100 days after Russia launched its large-scale invasion of its neighbour.

The Ukraine War: Europe’s Critical Challenge

More than two months ago, the Russian assault on Ukraine transformed a regional conflict into a war that poses the gravest risk to international peace and security in decades. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2022 – Spring Update, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to keep supporting Kyiv, while averting escalation and laying the groundwork for post-war European security arrangements.

The situation in Ukraine is more dangerous than before

Crisis Group’s Program Director for Europe and Central Asia, Olga Oliker, speaks about the current situation in Ukraine, why it's more dangerous now than when Russia invaded in February and what can be done to de-escalate it.

Our People

Simon Schlegel

Senior Analyst, Ukraine