Commentary

The following is adapted from a March 2023 report by Crisis Group’s President and CEO Comfort Ero to the organisation’s Trustees (before Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s 20-21 March visit to Moscow). She looks at the Ukraine war and its knock-on effects – from big-power polarisation to middle-power activism and disquiet outside the West about the conflict.

The core lesson of the 2003 Iraq war is that ruptures in autocratic settings are inherently fraught with risk. Policymakers should approach proposed interventions in such settings with caution.

The architects of the 2003 invasion of Iraq had grand visions of transforming the Middle East in favour of U.S. interests. Two decades later, it is clear that the venture was a failure not just in that respect, but in most others as well.

In UN debates over Russia’s war in Ukraine, Western countries are still pledging to back Kyiv militarily, while non-Western states are more inclined to call for a negotiated peace. Thus far, however, the latter’s proposals for reaching that goal have been short on detail.

An agreement between the military and civilians could provide a path out of decades of authoritarian rule, but progress is not assured. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023, Crisis Group explains how the EU and its member states can support Sudan’s transition.

Myanmar’s military regime is planning elections despite facing widespread resistance. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023, Crisis Group explains how the EU and its member states can help ease the country’s political and humanitarian crisis.

Iraq has a new government after months of delay, but various challenges to stability persist. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023, Crisis Group explains how the EU and its member states can help support necessary reforms.

Dialogue efforts in the Gulf have stalled amid rising tensions. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023, Crisis Group explains how the EU and its member states can help revive Saudi-Iranian and other talks.

The Taliban seem determined to isolate the country from the world, which can only lead to greater misery for Afghans. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023, Crisis Group explains how the EU and its member states can help address the challenges Afghanistan faces.

Overlapping crises have added to the economic burdens of many countries, particularly those already in debt. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023, Crisis Group lays out steps the EU and its member states can take to reduce vulnerability and risks of unrest.