Sri Lanka

In the wake of mass protests that forced President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to resign in July 2022, Sri Lanka’s interlocking economic and governance crises remain acute. Austerity measures, introduced in part to win financial support from the International Monetary Fund and foreign creditors, have brought additional economic hardship for many Sri Lankans already struggling with collapsing living standards. Forthcoming economic reforms could provoke renewed protests. President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s reliance on Rajapaksa allies for his parliamentary majority will likely constrain fulfilment of promises to increase financial accountability, strengthen rule of law institutions, reduce impunity and corruption, ensure the rights of Tamils and Muslims, and address the legacy of the 1983-2009 civil war. Building on Crisis Group’s work during and after the war, we advocate for international humanitarian assistance, as well as inclusive governance reforms to strengthen democratic institutions and support a lasting, equitable peace.

CrisisWatch Sri Lanka

Unchanged Situation

Sri Lanka prepared for Sept presidential elections, greenlighting 39 candidates; IMF warned country “at critical juncture”, should sustain economic reform.

Record 39 candidates to take part in upcoming presidential elections. Electoral commission 15 Aug accepted largest-ever number of candidates, with 39 nominations, for 21 Sept presidential election, though the race is widely seen as a three-way battle between president Ranil Wickremesinghe, opposition leader Sajith Premadasa of Samagi Jana Balawegaya party and Anura Kumara Dissanayake, leader of the leftist National People’s Power (NPP) coalition. Both Premadasa and Dissanayake pledging to fight corruption and renegotiate bailout deal with International Monetary Fund (IMF) to better protect lower-income voters from economic austerity measures. In a blow to Wickremesinghe, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), expected to back the president, 7 Aug announced its candidate would be Namal Rajapaksa, 38-year-old son of former president Mahinda Rajapaksa and nephew of ousted president Gotabaya Rajapaksa; move is seen as a bid by prominent Rajapaksa family, ousted from power in July 2022, to maintain political control of the SLPP, most of whose party legislators are backing Wickremesinghe. Wickremesinghe’s reputation took a blow after 22 Aug Supreme Court ruling found him guilty of “arbitrary and unlawful” conduct in postponing local elections, initially due in March 2023, ordering govt to hold polls as soon as possible after the presidential vote.

IMF urged tax raise, commended progress of economic reform efforts. During 25 July-2 Aug staff visit, IMF commended economic reform efforts, but 2 Aug warned that country was “at critical juncture” and that to maintain economic stability and ensure efforts to reform economy are successful, authorities need to finalise debt restructuring agreements and redouble efforts to raise fiscal revenue. Next progress review is due after Sept presidential elections, outcome of which may influence policy changes. In line with 2023 Anti-Corruption Act, championed by IMF, president Wickremesinghe and 135 members of parliament provided declarations of assets and liabilities for 1 Aug online publication on Commission to Investigate Allegations of Bribery and Corruption website; 90 legislators out of 225, however, failed to meet 31 July deadline.

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In The News

13 Sep 2023
Commissions of inquiry and ad hoc committees have been used for decades as a way of obscuring the truth and avoiding accountability [in Sri Lanka]. Nikkei Asia

Alan Keenan

Senior Consultant, Sri Lanka
10 Sep 2023
For more than ten years, the [UN Human Rights] Council has pushed Colombo to hold accountable perpetrators of atrocities during the [Sri Lankan] civil war. Colombo Gazette

Alan Keenan

Senior Consultant, Sri Lanka
10 Jan 2023
[Sanctions for Sri Lankan officials] are a timely reminder that continued impunity will bring increasing costs to the government’s international reputation. Al Jazeera

Alan Keenan

Senior Consultant, Sri Lanka

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Alan Keenan

Senior Consultant, Sri Lanka
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