In the wake of mass protests that forced President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to resign in July 2022, Sri Lanka’s interlocking economic and governance crises remain acute. Austerity measures, introduced in part to win financial support from the International Monetary Fund and foreign creditors, have brought additional economic hardship for many Sri Lankans already struggling with collapsing living standards. Forthcoming economic reforms could provoke renewed protests. President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s reliance on Rajapaksa allies for his parliamentary majority will likely constrain fulfilment of promises to increase financial accountability, strengthen rule of law institutions, reduce impunity and corruption, ensure the rights of Tamils and Muslims, and address the legacy of the 1983-2009 civil war. Building on Crisis Group’s work during and after the war, we advocate for international humanitarian assistance, as well as inclusive governance reforms to strengthen democratic institutions and support a lasting, equitable peace.
The Sri Lankan government has long evaded the UN Human Rights Council’s requests that it hold accountable perpetrators of atrocities committed during the country’s 26-year civil war and since. Absent changes responsive to its concerns, the Council should keep up the pressure.
Sri Lanka prepared for Sept presidential elections, greenlighting 39 candidates; IMF warned country “at critical juncture”, should sustain economic reform.
Record 39 candidates to take part in upcoming presidential elections. Electoral commission 15 Aug accepted largest-ever number of candidates, with 39 nominations, for 21 Sept presidential election, though the race is widely seen as a three-way battle between president Ranil Wickremesinghe, opposition leader Sajith Premadasa of Samagi Jana Balawegaya party and Anura Kumara Dissanayake, leader of the leftist National People’s Power (NPP) coalition. Both Premadasa and Dissanayake pledging to fight corruption and renegotiate bailout deal with International Monetary Fund (IMF) to better protect lower-income voters from economic austerity measures. In a blow to Wickremesinghe, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), expected to back the president, 7 Aug announced its candidate would be Namal Rajapaksa, 38-year-old son of former president Mahinda Rajapaksa and nephew of ousted president Gotabaya Rajapaksa; move is seen as a bid by prominent Rajapaksa family, ousted from power in July 2022, to maintain political control of the SLPP, most of whose party legislators are backing Wickremesinghe. Wickremesinghe’s reputation took a blow after 22 Aug Supreme Court ruling found him guilty of “arbitrary and unlawful” conduct in postponing local elections, initially due in March 2023, ordering govt to hold polls as soon as possible after the presidential vote.
IMF urged tax raise, commended progress of economic reform efforts. During 25 July-2 Aug staff visit, IMF commended economic reform efforts, but 2 Aug warned that country was “at critical juncture” and that to maintain economic stability and ensure efforts to reform economy are successful, authorities need to finalise debt restructuring agreements and redouble efforts to raise fiscal revenue. Next progress review is due after Sept presidential elections, outcome of which may influence policy changes. In line with 2023 Anti-Corruption Act, championed by IMF, president Wickremesinghe and 135 members of parliament provided declarations of assets and liabilities for 1 Aug online publication on Commission to Investigate Allegations of Bribery and Corruption website; 90 legislators out of 225, however, failed to meet 31 July deadline.
Commissions of inquiry and ad hoc committees have been used for decades as a way of obscuring the truth and avoiding accountability [in Sri Lanka].
For more than ten years, the [UN Human Rights] Council has pushed Colombo to hold accountable perpetrators of atrocities during the [Sri Lankan] civil war.
[Sanctions for Sri Lankan officials] are a timely reminder that continued impunity will bring increasing costs to the government’s international reputation.
Sri Lanka's interlocking economic and political crises remain acute. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2022 – Autumn Update, Crisis Group lays out what the EU and its member states can do to mitigate the risks of needed reforms.
Originally published in The Hindustan Times.
Crowds of ordinary Sri Lankans stormed the presidential residence on 9 July, compelling President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Alan Keenan lays out the background of these events and looks at what the immediate future may hold.
Sri Lanka is embroiled in nationwide protests amid deepening economic woes and increasing political volatility. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Alan Keenan analyses the implications of the crisis, which could have lasting political and economic effects.
Sri Lanka’s president has named a veteran anti-Muslim agitator to head a legal reform task force. Critics have called the move “incomprehensible”, but it is readily understood as a way to divert discontent among the government’s Sinhala Buddhist base toward an embattled minority.
The UN Human Rights Council will soon discuss Sri Lanka, where the new government has scotched truth and justice efforts related to the 1983-2009 civil war. The Council should demand accountability for past crimes but stress that Colombo’s present policies may spark further deadly conflict.
The politically-motivated Presidential Commission of Enquiry has been distorting politically-connected criminal suspects into victims, and investigators and legal reformers into criminals.
Twice postponed because of COVID-19, Sri Lanka's parliamentary election finally took place on 5 August. The SLPP's electoral victory should be understood not simply as a result of dissatisfaction with rival party UNP, but of the failure of its internationally-backed liberal reform agenda to gain lasting traction with Sri Lankan voters.
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