Briefing / Europe & Central Asia 15 Јул 2002 1 minutes

Borba Za Kontrolu Nad Vojskom Jugoslavije

PREGLED

Smena šefa Generalštaba Vojske Jugoslavije (VJ) Nebojše Pavkovića od strane jugoslovenskog predsednika Vojislava Koštunice bila je neophodna, dobrodošla i trebalo je već odavno da se desi. EU, SAD i NATO su pohvalili ovaj potez kao nastojanje da se uspostavi civilna kontrola nad vojskom, a Koštunici se zaista mora priznati da je uklonio značajnu prepreku reintegraciji zemlje u Evropu. Pa ipak, ovaj potez je verovatno više rezultat tekuće borbe za moć između Koštunice i premijera Srbije Zorana Đinđića nego istinsko nastojanje da se vojska dovede pod civilnu kontrolu ili da se raspuste vanustavne paralelne komandne strukture koje je post-Miloševićevsko vođstvo stvorilo unutar VJ.^[fn]ICG je upozorio na ove paralelene strukture u poslednja tri izveštaja o Srbiji. Videti ICG Balkans Report br. 117 Srpska tranzicija:Reforme pod opsadom, 21. septembar 2001; ICG Balkans Report br.126 Beogradske reforme zaostaju: Razlog za međunarodnu zabrinutost, 7. mart 2002; i ICG Balkan Briefing Intervencija vojske pretnja demokratskim reformama, 28. mart 2002.Hide Footnote

Ovaj dramatični potez će zaslužiti da bude protumačen kao istinski korak u pravom smeru samo ako ga Koštunica proprati nastojanjem da se uklone ostali kompromitovani pojedinci i da se uvede demokratska civilna kontrola nad vojskom. Do tada će Pavkovićeve optužbe – koje su u međuvremenu podržala još dva generala – da je predsednik naredio Vojsci Jugoslavije da napadne Vladu Republike Srbije u okiru borbe za moć koju vodi sa Đinđićem – i dalje provocirati pitanja o prirodi politike i vlasti u državi koja je još uvek opterećena nasleđem iz 90-ih. “Afera Pavković” potcrtava nedostatak demokratske parlamentarne kontrole nad Vojskom Jugoslavije i javnosti otkriva problematični lanac komande koji je Koštuničin kabinet upotrebio unutar VJ. Takođe skreće pažnju na slične strukture koje je Đinđić stvorio u Ministarstvu unutrašnjh poslova. Način na koji je Koštunica sklonio Pavkovića je kontroverzan s pravne tačke gledišta i sada prolazi kroz sudsku i parlamentarnu istragu. Tvrdnja da je Koštunica naredio vojsci da napadne njegovog političkog rivala Đinđića otvorila je put ustavnom i pravnom izazovu koji bi predsednika mogao oslabiti u zemlji tokom ključnog perioda pre republičkih predsedničkih izbora, a mogao bi dovesti čak i do njegove smene zbog kršenja ustava.

Beograd/Brisel, 15. juli 2002.

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I. Overview

Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica’s 24 June 2002 sacking of Yugoslav Army (VJ) Chief of the General Staff Nebojsa Pavkovic was necessary, welcome, and long overdue. The EU, U.S., and NATO acclaimed the move as an effort to assert civilian control over the military, and Kostunica indeed deserves credit for removing a significant obstacle to the country’s reintegration with Europe. Nonetheless, the action was probably more the result of the ongoing power struggle between Kostunica and Serbian Premier Zoran Djindjic than a genuine effort to bring the military under civilian control or dismantle the extra-constitutional parallel command structures that the post-Milosevic leadership of the country has created within the VJ.^[fn]ICG has warned of these parallel structures in its last three Serbia reports. See ICG Balkans Report No.117 Serbia’s Transition: Reforms Under Siege, 21 September 2001; ICG Balkans Report No.126 Belgrade’s Lagging Reform: Cause for International Concern, 7 March 2002; and ICG Balkans Briefing Serbia: Military Intervention Threatens Democratic Reforms, 28 March 2002.Hide Footnote

The dramatic action will deserve to be interpreted as a genuine step in the right direction only if Kostunica follows up with concerted efforts to remove other compromised individuals and introduce democratic civilian control over the military. Until then, Pavkovic’s charges – since supported by two other generals – that the president ordered VJ troops to attack the Serbian Republic government as part of his power struggle with Djindjic will continue to raise questions about the nature of politics and governance inside a state that has not yet shaken off the dark legacy of the 1990s.

The “Pavkovic Affair” highlights the lack of democratic parliamentary control over Yugoslavia’s military and brings into public view the questionable chain of command Kostunica’s cabinet has used with respect to the VJ. It also highlights similar structures Djindjic has created within the Interior Ministry. The manner in which Kostunica removed Pavkovic was legally controversial, and is undergoing judicial and parliamentary scrutiny. The assertion that Kostunica ordered the army to attack his political rival, Djindjic, has set the stage for a constitutional and legal challenge that could weaken the president domestically during the crucial run-up to Serbian presidential elections and may even lead to his impeachment for violations of the constitution.

Belgrade/Brussels, 15 July 2002