Arrow Down Arrow Left Arrow Right Arrow Up Camera icon set icon set Ellipsis icon set Facebook Favorite Globe Hamburger List Mail Map Marker Map Microphone Minus PDF Play Print RSS Search Share Trash Twitter Video Camera Youtube

Somalia

Somalia recently emerged from a long and difficult election process that resulted in the sizeable election victory of President Mohammed Abdullahi "Farmajo". The rare moment of unity, however, has been offset by attacks in Mogadishu and rural areas carried out by al-Qaeda’s franchise Al-Shabaab. The risk of famine also looms large over the country, in part driven by drought and clan-based conflict. Crisis Group’s research and analysis help the Somali government strengthen the fragile administrations of federal member states and to address the underlying causes of conflicts between and within them. We also aim to advise the government as it works to mitigate the risk of insecurity attendant to the upcoming withdrawal of the African Union Mission (AMISOM), scheduled for October 2018.

CrisisWatch Somalia

Unchanged Situation

Reports of mounting fighting between govt forces and Al-Shabaab in Middle and Lower Shabelle regions raised concerns of growing humanitarian impact; UN 23 Nov reported over 10,000 people newly displaced in those regions in Nov. U.S. significantly increased airstrikes against Al-Shabaab citing improved intelligence, conducting at least eight strikes in month including 21 Nov strike which killed over 100 militants in Bay region, 200km north west of capital Mogadishu. U.S. airstrikes also hit Islamic State (ISIS) targets in Somalia for first time 3, 12 and 27 Nov. African Union mission (AMISOM) head 7 Nov said 1,000 troops out of some 22,000 total would withdraw by end of 2017 in planned drawdown. Amid ongoing Gulf dispute with Qatar, President Farmajo late Nov visited United Arab Emirates in apparent attempt to align federal govt with Somali regional states, which support Saudi-led bloc.

Continue reading

Reports & Briefings

In The News

18 Oct 2017
I’ve heard a lot of complaints from Somalis saying ‘There’s a huge Western navy on our shores - why can’t those people come to help us?' Reuters

Rashid Abdi

Project Director, Horn of Africa
17 Oct 2017
One of the problems is that there is growing discontent within the [Somalian] security services. That should have sent of a clear warning signal, and al-Shabaab took advantage of that situation. The New York Times

Rashid Abdi

Project Director, Horn of Africa
17 Oct 2017
This has always been the billion-dollar question. If you think about how much money goes to Somalia every year, will this generate the political will to do what needs to be done to stabilize [the country]? The Atlantic

EJ Hogendoorn

Deputy Program Director, Africa
16 Oct 2017
[Al-Shabaab] won’t claim responsibility because of the massive civilian deaths, but this was definitely [their] operation. IRIN

Rashid Abdi

Project Director, Horn of Africa
16 Oct 2017
We cannot be complacent about what’s happening in Somalia. It’s a clear signal that al-Shabaab is not down and out; indeed it is escalating the war. Financial Times

Rashid Abdi

Project Director, Horn of Africa
16 Oct 2017
Rural areas are contested and al-Shabaab [operates] freely in Somalia’s hinterland. The Somali federal government has made little progress in bringing the government back to areas outside Mogadishu. Los Angeles Times

EJ Hogendoorn

Deputy Program Director, Africa

Latest Updates

Statement / Africa

The London Conference and Prospects for Peace and Stability in Somalia

The 11 May 2017 London Conference on Somalia will discuss boosting humanitarian aid and security reforms that will increase the army’s numbers to 18,000. But the government must tackle corruption and restart national reconciliation if it wants to build effectively on recent progress toward ending the 25-year conflict.

Briefing / Africa

Instruments of Pain (III): Conflict and Famine in Somalia

Chronic conflict is preventing effective response to Somalia’s prolonged drought and humanitarian crisis. This special briefing, the third in a series of four examining the famine threats there and in Yemen, South Sudan and Nigeria, urges Somalia to improve governance and promote countrywide clan reconciliation to end the war.

Commentary / Africa

Somalia: Transforming Hope into Stability

Somalia has a genuine opportunity to promote needed political and security reforms following the election of a new president and renewed international interest. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2017 – First Update early-warning report for European policy makers, Crisis Group urges the European Union to seize the momentum by achieving consensus with its international partners on realistic goals ahead of the upcoming London Conference on Somalia in May. 

Terrorism and Counter-terrorism: New Challenges for the European Union

Despite suffering significant blows in Syria and Iraq, jihadist movements across the Middle East, North Africa and Lake Chad regions continue to pose significant challenges. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2017 – First Update early-warning report for European policy makers, Crisis Group urges the European Union and its member states to prioritise conflict prevention at the heart of their counter-terrorism policy and continue investment in vulnerable states.

Statement / Global

Instruments of Pain: Conflict and Famine

For the first time in three decades, four countries, driven by war, verge on famine. Over coming weeks, Crisis Group will publish special briefings on Yemen, South Sudan, Somalia and Nigeria. Each conflict requires tailored response; all need increased aid and efforts to end the violence.

Our People

Zakaria Yusuf

Analyst, Somalia

Idil Farah

Analyst, Somalia
IdilayBilan