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West Africa

CrisisWatch West Africa

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.

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Trends for Last Month November 2018

Deteriorated Situations

GuineaNigeria

Improved Situations

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Outlook for This Month December 2018

Conflict Risk Alerts

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Resolution Opportunities

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President's Take

High Stakes in the Months Ahead

Contributor

President & CEO
Rob_Malley

In his foreword to the November/December 2018 instalment of CrisisWatch, our monthly conflict tracker, our President Rob Malley sees inflection points drawing near in two of the world's hottest wars – Yemen and Afghanistan – as well as crucial elections approaching in DR Congo and Nigeria.  

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

3 Oct 2018
The fact that some of the recent attacks [in Nigeria] specifically targeted military bases shows they were deliberate, not opportunistic. Bloomberg

Nnamdi Obasi

Senior Adviser, Nigeria
24 Jul 2018
Jihadist groups present since the 2012 crisis in Mali exploited local unrest and the weak presence of the state in northern Mali to launch cross-border attacks against the Nigerien army... Despite direct support from Chadian troops since 2015 and closer collaboration with the Nigerian army, Nigerien forces have been unable to fully secure the border with Nigeria from attacks, including some linked to the Islamic State. Voice of America

Hannah Armstrong

Consulting Analyst, Sahel
25 Jun 2018
More people to feed means more agricultural settlement and less available land and water for herders. All of this tend to trigger more and more disputes [between farmers and semi-nomadic herders in Nigeria]. Reuters

Rinaldo Depagne

Senior Adviser Africa & Project Director West Africa
9 Apr 2018
Given the [Nigerian] government’s continuing inability to impose its own solution to the conflict [with Boko Haram] ... the government’s exploration of dialogue [with] the insurgents is understandable. Anadolu Agency

Nnamdi Obasi

Senior Adviser, Nigeria
23 Feb 2018
The Dapchi incident [in Nigeria] is a major setback for hopes and expectations for a conclusive release of the remaining Chibok girls and all others still held by Boko Haram. Reuters

Nnamdi Obasi

Senior Adviser, Nigeria
9 Feb 2018
Les forces armées tendent à employer la méthode forte et cela peut exacerber les conflits [au Nigeria] et créer de nouveaux problèmes de droits humains et de relation militaires/civils. RFI

Nnamdi Obasi

Senior Adviser, Nigeria

Latest Updates

EU Watch List / Global

Watch List 2018 – Third Update

Crisis Group’s third update to our Watch List 2018 includes entries on economic reforms in Libya, preserving the fragile quiet in Syria’s Idlib province, addressing the plight of civilians in eastern Ukraine, supporting Colombia's uneasy peace process and averting violence in Nigeria's upcoming elections. This annual early-warning report identifies conflict situations in which prompt action by the European Union and its member states would generate stronger prospects for peace.

Commentary / Africa

Averting Violence around Nigeria’s 2019 Elections

As election preparations get underway in Nigeria, conflict and insecurity in many parts of the country risk exacerbating intercommunal tensions and preventing a peaceful transfer of power. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2018 annual early-warning update for European policy makers, Crisis Group urges the EU and its members states to remain fully engaged during the election in order to curb violence and strengthen the country’s democratic institutions.

Report / Africa

Stopping Nigeria’s Spiralling Farmer-Herder Violence

Rising conflict between herders and farmers in Nigeria is already six times deadlier in 2018 than Boko Haram’s insurgency. To stop the bloodshed, the federal government should improve security; end impunity for assailants; and hasten livestock sector reform. State governments should freeze open grazing bans.

Op-Ed / Africa

How Europe’s Panic over Migration and Terrorism Is a Big Opportunity for Africa

This week’s summit of African and European leaders in Abidjan is a chance to find a win-win solution.

Originally published in IRIN

Op-Ed / Africa

Europe’s Chance in Africa

With the UK’s withdrawal from the EU now imminent, a dramatic power shift is changing the balances behind the scenes of the fifth African Union-European Union summit this week in Côte d’Ivoire. It is an opportunity for the EU to forge a new Africa strategy.

Originally published in Berlin Policy Journal

Our People

Rinaldo Depagne

Senior Adviser Africa & Project Director West Africa

Candida Borges

Office Manager, West Africa

Nnamdi Obasi

Senior Adviser, Nigeria
NnamdiObasi

José Luengo-Cabrera

Researcher, West Africa
J_LuengoCabrera