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CrisisWatch Chad

Unchanged Situation

After parliament passed constitutional amendment end April, Constitutional Court 3 May rejected its annulment, proposed by some opposition MPs. President Déby signed into law new constitution 4 May and during ceremony said govt would grant amnesty for all Chadians in exile for political reasons; spokesperson (now in Germany) of former rebel alliance Union of Resistance Forces (UFR) active in east in 2000s expressed doubt in sincerity of Déby’s promise 6 May. New govt formed 7 May. Supreme Court 10 May swore in govt members on either Koran or Bible; Supreme Court president immediately fired one govt member who refused to swear on Bible; another refused to use word “Allah” in her statement. Déby met political parties 8 May but failed to agree on composition of National Framework for Political Dialogue, platform comprising ruling majority, opposition and civil society to discuss conduct of elections. Déby met opposition leader Saleh Kebzabo, at latter’s request, 16 May for first time since 2012. Civil servants went on strike 28 May to demand full payment of salaries as allowances withheld since Jan; 30 May rejected offer of compensation in kind. Boko Haram militants attacked army position on island in Lake Chad during night 5-6 May, killing one soldier, four officials and one citizen.

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

25 Sep 2017
[There are no] significant indications of other violent extremist activity [in Chad aside from Boko Haram], so in that respect, [the decision to include Chad in the U.S. travel ban] is completely baffling. The Washington Post

Richard Moncrieff

Project Director, Central Africa

Latest Updates

Commentary / Africa

The Sahel: Promoting Political alongside Military Action

Rural insurgencies across the Sahel are destabilising the region and undermining local security and governance. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2018, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to continue support for the Alliance for the Sahel and promote local dialogue to buttress law and order.

Commentary / Africa

Lake Chad Basin: Controlling the Cost of Counter-insurgency

The Boko Haram insurgency is weakening in the Lake Chad basin, but its underlying socio-economic drivers remain to be addressed. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2017, we urge the EU and its member states to support regional governments with winding down vigilante groups, funding youth employment projects, rebuilding agriculture and trade, and restoring public services.

Forced out of Towns in the Sahel, Africa’s Jihadists Go Rural

Jihadist groups have regrouped in the neglected hinterlands of Sahel countries and are launching attacks from them. To regain control of outlying districts, regional states must do far more to extend services and representation beyond recently recaptured provincial centres.

Report / Africa

Chad: Between Ambition and Fragility

Ahead of Chad’s presidential election on 10 April popular discontent is rising amid a major economic crisis, growing intra-religious tensions and deadly Boko Haram attacks. The regime that portrays itself as spearheading the fight against regional jihadism could see all sorts of violent actors gain influence at home if it pursues exclusionary politics and denies its people a viable social contract.

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Report / Africa

The Central Sahel: A Perfect Sandstorm

The Sahel’s trajectory is worrying; poverty and population growth, combined with growing jihadi extremism, contraband and human trafficking constitute the perfect storm of actual and potential instability. Without holistic, sustained efforts against entrenched criminal networks, misrule and underdevelopment, radicalisation and migration are likely to spread and exacerbate.

Also available in العربية, Français

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Thibaud Lesueur

Consulting Senior Analyst, Central Africa