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Horn of Africa

CrisisWatch Horn of Africa

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.

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Trends for Last Month February 2019

Deteriorated Situations

SomaliaSudan

Improved Situations

none

Outlook for This Month March 2019

Conflict Risk Alerts

South SudanSudan

Resolution Opportunities

none

President's Take

A Ray of Hope from Doha as Tensions Rise Elsewhere

Contributor

President & CEO
Rob_Malley

In his introduction to this month's edition of CrisisWatch, Crisis Group's conflict tracker, our President Robert Malley highlights the concerning crisis unfolding between Pakistan and India and sees indicators of escalation in Sudan.

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

13 Mar 2019
The [South Sudan] peace agreement is stalling and is at risk of collapse if more political deals aren’t struck. Reuters

Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan
11 Mar 2019
[The U.S. war in Somalia appears to be] on autopilot [and] people need to pay attention. New York Times

Brittany Brown

Chief of Staff
6 Mar 2019
[Sudanese President] Bashir has a cunning record of allying himself with everyone and being beholden to no one. He has a reputation for transactional diplomacy. The Wall Street Journal

Elizabeth Dickinson

Senior Analyst, Arabian Peninsula
21 Feb 2019
In South Sudan, manpower is political power. Politicians use peace deals to grow their own armed ranks. AP

Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan
4 Feb 2019
Somalia has become a chessboard in the power game between Qatar and Turkey on the one side and Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and their allies on the other. BBC

Rashid Abdi

Project Director, Horn of Africa
4 Jan 2019
[Sudan's President] Bashir has faced down protests before, but what’s clear is that the economy has reached a tipping point and the masses have been pushed to the edge. The Financial Times

Murithi Mutiga

Deputy Project Director, Horn of Africa

Latest Updates

Commentary / Africa

Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2019

In 2019, the African Union faces many challenges, with conflicts old and new simmering across the continent. To help resolve these crises – our annual survey lists seven particularly pressing ones – the regional organisation should also push ahead with institutional reforms.

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Commentary / Africa

Bolstering South Sudan’s Peace Deal

Amid growing regional unrest, a fragile peace deal brokered between the warring parties in South Sudan has not won a broader political settlement. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2019 for European policymakers, Crisis Group advises the EU to take a lead in negotiations and put conditions on its monitoring of the agreement.

Impact Note / Africa

Editorial in the Washington Post: Sudan's President Must Resign

Drawing from analysis in our Sudan briefing, Improving Prospects for a Peaceful Transition in Sudan, the Washington Post Editorial Board argues that, faced with nationwide unrest and unpalatable alternatives, President Bashir should relinquish power.

Originally published in The Washington Post

Briefing / Africa

Improving Prospects for a Peaceful Transition in Sudan

Popular protests are rumbling across Sudan, shaking President Omar al-Bashir’s 30-year grip on power. The authorities have cracked down hard and, as the demonstrations intensify, they may ratchet up the repression. External powers should urge restraint and offer Bashir a way to the exit.

Commentary / Africa

Somalia’s South West State: A New President Installed, a Crisis Inflamed

Against all sensible advice, the Federal Government of Somalia muscled in on a local election to shove aside an Islamist conservative candidate. It scored a tactical victory but created significant additional risk for the country already wracked by conflict and divided along regional and clan lines.

Our People

Rashid Abdi

Project Director, Horn of Africa
RAbdiCG

Abdullahi Abdille

Researcher, Horn of Africa
a_abdille

Grace Njuguna

Office Manager, Horn of Africa

Zakaria Yusuf

Analyst, Somalia

Murithi Mutiga

Deputy Project Director, Horn of Africa
mutigam

Idil Farah

Analyst, Somalia
IdilayBilan

Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan
alanboswell