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Horn of Africa

CrisisWatch Horn of Africa

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.

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Trends for Last Month November 2018

Deteriorated Situations

SomaliaSomaliland

Improved Situations

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Outlook for This Month December 2018

Conflict Risk Alerts

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Resolution Opportunities

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President's Take

High Stakes in the Months Ahead

Contributor

President & CEO
Rob_Malley

In his foreword to the November/December 2018 instalment of CrisisWatch, our monthly conflict tracker, our President Rob Malley sees inflection points drawing near in two of the world's hottest wars – Yemen and Afghanistan – as well as crucial elections approaching in DR Congo and Nigeria.  

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

29 Nov 2018
Washington was never willing to take a hard line with Uganda on South Sudan. This was the biggest missed opportunity to halt the war early. Washington Post

Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan
27 Jun 2018
If talks do not progress in the coming days, the parties may feel less compelled to adhere to a ceasefire [in South Sudan]. There are command and control issues as well as many forces that are not aligned to the government or Machar’s group. Even an effective ceasefire would only reduce some of the violence. Journal du Cameroun

Casie Copeland

Former Senior Analyst
1 May 2018
Somalia has been caught in the middle of an effort [by some Gulf countries] to try to expand influence, commercial and military, along the coast. Reuters

Robert Malley

President & CEO
8 Apr 2018
Somalia has become a chessboard in the power game between Qatar and Turkey on the one side and Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and their allies on the other. BBC News

Rashid Abdi

Project Director, Horn of Africa
15 Mar 2018
When [Kenya's opposition leader Raila Odinga] has a seat at the table, you expect that there will be less inclination to behave irresponsibly and to close down the democratic space. World Politics Review

Murithi Mutiga

Deputy Project Director, Horn of Africa
9 Mar 2018
The U.S. is no longer the dominant external actor in Africa, and must compete for influence not only with China, but a host of other, increasingly assertive, states pursuing their own agendas. Reuters

EJ Hogendoorn

Deputy Program Director, Africa

Latest Updates

Watch List 2018 – Second Update

Crisis Group’s second update to our Watch List 2018 includes entries on seizing a chance for peace in Mali, avoiding escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh, mitigating conflict in Syria’s peripheral regions, and helping Somalia overcome obstacles to reform. This annual early-warning report identifies conflict situations in which prompt action by the European Union and its member states would generate stronger prospects for peace.

Commentary / Africa

Encouraging Reform and Reconciliation in Somalia

Clan divisions, a persistent jihadist presence and regional instability pose serious challenges as Somalia prepares for its first direct elections in decades. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2018 early-warning update, Crisis Group urges European policy makers to support reforms aimed at bridging Somalia’s political and social divides ahead of elections in 2020.

Briefing / Africa

Averting War in Northern Somalia

A dispute between Puntland and Somaliland over the contested areas of Sool and Sanaag risks escalating into open war. The UN, supported by states with influence on the two sides, should renew diplomatic efforts to broker a ceasefire and press both to enter negotiations.

Video / Africa

Video: The Humanitarian Crisis in South Sudan

Five years into South Sudan’s civil war more than half of the population is either displace or starving. In this interview, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for the Horn of Africa Casie Copeland talks about the enormous humanitarian toll of the crisis.

Our People

Rashid Abdi

Project Director, Horn of Africa
RAbdiCG

Abdullahi Abdille

Researcher, Horn of Africa
a_abdille

Grace Njuguna

Office Manager, Horn of Africa

Zakaria Yusuf

Analyst, Somalia

Murithi Mutiga

Deputy Project Director, Horn of Africa
mutigam

Idil Farah

Analyst, Somalia
IdilayBilan

Alan Boswell

Senior Analyst, South Sudan
alanboswell