Since a July 2013 military coup, Egypt has sought to reassert state authority undermined by the 2011 uprising at the expense of political inclusion, especially of the Muslim Brotherhood. The resulting polarisation has encouraged mounting political violence from the Islamic State (ISIS) and other violent groups, particularly in the Sinai Peninsula where a low-level insurgency has raged. In the Nile Valley, in 2017, ISIS has targeted the Coptic Christian minority, while al-Qaeda affiliates and other groups tied to the Brotherhood have targeted security forces. Crisis Group is urging the government to be more inclusive and address widespread violations of human and political rights, especially ahead of presidential elections scheduled for May 2018, to better address security and economic challenges.
The Egyptian economy is under increasing strain, with the Gaza war’s effects adding to the pressure. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2024, Crisis Group identifies ways the EU can support Egypt in coping with its economic woes.
Cairo continued to grapple with repercussions of Israel’s war on Gaza, reportedly preparing for refugee influx in case of ground offensive on Rafah; Cairo and UAE signed major investment deal, alleviating Egypt’s foreign currency shortage.
Egypt reportedly built security zone in Sinai anticipating refugee influx from Gaza. Responding to speculation that Egypt was ready to suspend peace treaty with Israel if latter launches ground offensive on Gaza’s southern city of Rafah, FM Sameh Shoukry 12 Feb said Cairo remained committed to agreement as long as Israel was, too. NGO Sinai for Human Rights 14 Feb said Egypt was building fortified buffer zone along border with Gaza to accommodate refugees in case of mass exodus from Gaza, while isolating them from rest of Sinai Peninsula. North Sinai governorate 17 Feb refuted report, claiming ongoing construction works were meant to create logistics zone to manage humanitarian aid. Meanwhile, efforts to broker truce in Gaza picked up pace. After Egypt, Israel, Qatar, and U.S. representatives met in French capital Paris, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan 25 Feb said parties “came to an understanding” on basic contours of hostage deal and ceasefire; senior Hamas official 27 Feb however said “big gaps” remained on major issues, notably length of truce.
UAE signed agreement for largest foreign direct investment in Egypt’s history. Egypt 23 Feb announced mega-deal with United Arab Emirates sovereign wealth fund for development of real estate on Mediterranean coast; deal will bring in $35bn, virtually solving Egypt’s liquidity problems. International Monetary Fund Director Kristalina Georgieva 2 Feb said talks over new loan were in final stretch. Exchange rate devaluation likely to take place before IMF disburses first tranche of new loan.
Turkish president’s visit marked culmination of rapprochement between Cairo and Ankara. Turkish President Erdoğan 14 Feb met with President Sisi during first official visit to Egypt since 2012, marking further step in diplomatic reconciliation between two countries and offering opportunities for understandings on issues including East Mediterranean and Libya. Sisi expected to visit Türkiye in April.
[Egypt] cannot live with the permanent displacement of Palestinians into the Sinai Peninsula, the Gaza war’s crippling economic effects and risks of regional war.
Things have been very tense [on Gaza's border with Egypt], but there are limits to how far these tensions can go on a strategic level.
If the war goes the way it’s been going, the border between Egypt and Gaza will come under immense pressure. Reality might have a say then.
This week on The Horn, Alan talks with Michael Wahid Hanna, Crisis Group’s U.S. Program director, about the role of Egypt in Sudan’s war and how it might shape future relations between the two neighbouring countries and Cairo’s regional diplomacy.
Egypt faces an economic crisis that risks fuelling unrest. The International Monetary Fund demands reforms in return for loans, while the authorities seek to broaden their base through a much-criticised national dialogue. Foreign partners should cautiously support this balancing act to enhance the country’s stability.
The conflict in Egypt’s Sinai offers insights into U.S. foreign policy priorities. As part of our series The Legacy of 9/11 and the “War on Terror”, Michael Wahid Hanna argues Cairo has used the jihadist spectre to scare off critics and keep U.S. military aid flowing.
This week on The Horn, Alan and William Davison, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for Ethiopia, discuss Ethiopia's plans to start filling the massive dam it is building, including the complex dynamics at play, negotiations, and the parties' various concerns.
With rains swelling the Blue Nile, Ethiopia is just weeks away from beginning to fill the massive dam it is building. Egypt and Sudan demand that it not do so without an agreement. All three countries urgently need to make concessions for a deal.
In this episode of The Horn, Alan Boswell is joined by Harry Verhoeven, a leading academic expert on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam to discuss everything from the politicisation of the dam to environmental sustainability and agricultural productivity in the Nile Basin.
Receive the best source of conflict analysis right in your inbox.
This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our privacy policy for more details.