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Libya

Implementation of the UN-mediated 2015 political deal that established the Presidency Council and Tripoli-based interim government has been hindered by claims of illegitimacy by rival political forces. Although the framework of the deal is the only viable path to resolving the Libyan conflict, Crisis Group encourages all parties to negotiate a new government with nationwide legitimacy. Important steps were taken in July 2017, when rivals President al-Serraj and General Haftar agreed to a ceasefire agreement and to hold elections in 2018. Yet Libya remains deeply divided and failure to implement the agreement could adversely affect regional security as well as increase migrant flows into the European Union. Crisis Group aims to inform the international community, as well as national and regional actors, about the importance prioritising economic development and basic political consensus as  the main stepping stones for sustainable peace.

CrisisWatch Libya

Unchanged Situation

Conflict Risk Alert

Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) made some advances in offensive to take capital Tripoli from UN-backed Govt of National Accord (GNA) as UN-led efforts to promote ceasefire remained stalled, and Turkey’s potential deployment of troops to support GNA could escalate fighting in coming weeks. LNA raided Al-Swani neighbourhood south of Tripoli 1 Dec, reportedly killing five children. Haftar 12 Dec urged his forces to advance toward centre of Tripoli in what he said would be “final battle” for capital. In following days, LNA forces intensified shelling and published footage of reinforcements coming from eastern Libya to Tripoli, and Russian-provided attack helicopters flying over capital. GNA 19 Dec approved implementation of military deal signed with Turkey in Nov, paving way for reinforced Turkish military and logistical support. Turkish parliament 30 Dec debated bill that, if passed in 2 Jan session, could empower govt to send troops to Libya to reinforce GNA. LNA 20 Dec gave GNA-affiliated militias from Misrata 72 hours to leave Tripoli and coastal city of Sirte, threatening to further target Misrata with airstrikes. Berlin 10 Dec hosted fifth UN-backed meeting to prepare ground for peace process, but parties remained at odds over ceasefire conditions.

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

10 Jul 2019
The French need to clarify in greater detail. The open question is whether or not they are actively supporting Haftar’s forces in their offensive on Tripoli. The Guardian

Claudia Gazzini

Consulting Analyst, Libya
4 Jun 2019
With the GNA and the LNA refusing to halt hostilities and amid diplomatic paralysis, the war in and around Tripoli is likely to drag on. AFP

Claudia Gazzini

Consulting Analyst, Libya
9 Apr 2019
Haftar is deeply unpopular in many places and given the fragmented state of Libya and the proliferation of armed groups it’s going to be very hard to impose his rule throughout the country. TIME

Joost Hiltermann

Program Director, Middle East and North Africa
17 Feb 2019
Any effort to unite Libya requires an integrated strategy with a political, security and economic component complementing each other and working together towards a common objective. Al Jazeera

Claudia Gazzini

Consulting Analyst, Libya
10 Jan 2019
In Libya, there is a view that outsiders are meddling and hence Libyans can’t reach solutions. The Financial Times

Claudia Gazzini

Consulting Analyst, Libya
5 Sep 2018
In terms of dynamics and movement of armed groups on the ground [in Libya], I would say it’s even worse than 2011 after the fall of Gaddafi. At least in 2011 they had a sense of optimism and respect for one another. Now they are all trying to carve out territory but with deep distrust and animosity with each other. The Independent

Claudia Gazzini

Consulting Analyst, Libya

Latest Updates

EU Watch List / Global

Watch List 2019 – Second Update

Watch List Updates complement International Crisis Group’s annual Watch List, most recently published in January 2019. These early-warning publications identify major conflict situations in which prompt action, driven or supported by the European Union and its member states, would generate stronger prospects for peace. The second update to the Watch List 2019 includes entries on Colombia, Ethiopia, Iran and Libya.

Addressing the Rise of Libya’s Madkhali-Salafis

Adherents of a Salafi school, the Madkhalis, are gaining prominence on both sides of Libya’s divide, causing concerns about puritanical agendas imposed through military and religious institutions. Negotiators should ensure that rebuilt security forces are politically neutral and secure the Madkhalis’ pledge to respect pluralism.

Also available in العربية

Averting a Full-blown War in Libya

Fighting between forces loyal to Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar and allies of the UN-backed government in Tripoli threatens a bloodbath and a regional proxy war. Libya’s international partners should urgently take steps to avoid a major battle and get both sides back to the negotiating table under a new format.

Also available in العربية
EU Watch List / Global

Watch List 2018 – Third Update

Crisis Group’s third update to our Watch List 2018 includes entries on economic reforms in Libya, preserving the fragile quiet in Syria’s Idlib province, addressing the plight of civilians in eastern Ukraine, supporting Colombia's uneasy peace process and averting violence in Nigeria's upcoming elections. This annual early-warning report identifies conflict situations in which prompt action by the European Union and its member states would generate stronger prospects for peace.

Libya’s Economic Reforms Fall Short

While Libya’s first reform package since the fall of Gaddafi in 2011 has had positive initial effects, more must be done to improve the deteriorating economic situation in the country. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2018 annual early-warning update for European policy makers, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to address some of the packages’ core issues and press the government to create more thorough economic reforms.

Also available in Italiano

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Claudia Gazzini

Consulting Analyst, Libya