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Has Timor-Leste left behind its violent past?
Has Timor-Leste left behind its violent past?
Briefing 134 / Asia

Eleisaun Timor-Leste: Atu husik ona violensia ka?

Sumáriu

Eleisaun geral 2012 iha Timor-Leste sei sai hanesan prova importante ba nasaun nia resiliênsia bainhira selebra tinan sanulu ba independensia. Koalizaun governu komesa ona ho mudansa balun de’it ne’ebé nesesáriu depois de Krize 2006, maibe prosperidade foun ba ema barak mak aumenta sira nia interese ba estabilidade. Sei difisil hodi halo predisaun ba resultadu eleisaun oinmai tanba kandidatu no partidu barak atu partisipa no mós hahalok ida ne’ebe sidadaun sira vota ba kandidatu ka partidu bazeia ba asuntu polítiku seidauk metin. Eleisaun ne’ebé lao ho didi’ak maka importante laos de’it nu’udar pasu esensiál iha prosesu liu husi ONU nia misaun bele taka; eleisaun sira bele mós fo korajen ba lider sira hodi hare’e ba nasaun nia desafiu todan liu.

Agora dadaun, nasaun mak hakmatek liu duké tinan 2007 bainhira halo eleisaun geral ikus liu, maibe abut frakeza sira sei eziste. Relasaun entre lider polítiku sira maka di’ak liu, maibe sei iha hirus kle’an kona-ba pasadu, liuliu kona-ba Krize 2006. Númeru ba juventude ne’ebé serbisu laek hasa’e hela, liuliu iha Dili, no grupu no grupu arte marsiais sei kria problema. Ema la hatene se asuntus sira ne’e sei hamanas relasaun polítiku, maibe manipulasaun ba frustrasaun sira ne’e iha potensiál hodi kria konflitu.

Iha kandidatu babarak ba konkursu polítiku rua ne’e, maibe dala ida tan konkursu loloos mak entre lider ho naran-boot balu de’it. Depois de rounde primeiru ba eleisaun presidensial, loron 17 Marzu, kandidatu sira ne’e iha potensiál hodi kontinua ba rounde segundu iha Abril mak hanesan: inkumbente, José Ramos-Horta; Presidente ba Parlamentu Nasional atuál, Fernando ‘Lasama’ Araújo; ninia antesessor, Francisco ‘Lu Olo’ Guterres; no Komandante ba Forsa Defensa uluk nian, Taur Matan Ruak. Partidu ruanulu resin haat sei partisipa iha eleisaun parlamentar iha Juni rohan, maibe partidu rua de’it iha kbiit nato’on atu manan maioridade: Primeiru Ministru Xanana Gusmão nia Congressu Nasional de Reconstrução de Timor-Leste (CNRT) no partidu ne’ebé uluk forma governu primeiru, Frente Revolucionária de Timor-Leste Independente (Fretilin). Resultadu provavel liu mak partidu boot ida bele forma governu koalizaun hamutuk ho partidu ki’ik balu; partidu ki’ik 22 tama eleisaun. Tanba partidu babarak no mós partidu foun atu partisipa, susar tebes halo predisaun kona-ba resultadu eleisaun.

Tensaun polítiku hamenus ona antes de votasaun no situasaun seguransa mak estavel, maski kazu krime violentu aumenta uituan. Bainhira tempu kampaña mai besik liu no situasaun polítiku hamanas, kapasidade polísia sei menus no resultadu maka iha risku ba seguransa barak. Polísia ONU nian no Forsa Estabilizasaun Internasional (ISF), ne’ebé ki’ik, bele fo apoiu ho kontrolu ba ema lubun boot ka distúrbiu, maibe tenke hare’e ba opsaun seluk. Grupu sosiedade sivil iha papél iha edukasaun sivika ba votante sira no mós bele halo monitorizasaun kona-ba se partidu tuir kodigu ba konduktu ka lae. Sira mós bele hare’e se grupu arte marsiais hamosu violensia ka halo ameasa durante tempu eleisaun. Informasaun publiku tenke forma parte xave ba servisu sentru operasaun konjuntu ba seguransa eleisaun ne’ebé planu ona. Boatu bele provoka violensia no atensaun lalais hosi polísia hodi kombate informasaun la’os bele prevene konflitu. Impunidade maisomenus kompletu ba ema ne’ebe hamosu violensia politika maka risku konflitu boot liu: kandidatu sira tenke haklaru katak ba oin krime hanesan ne’e labele hasai de’it.

ONU mós iha papél. Autoridade nasional sei simu responsibilidade administra eleisaun sira ne’e, maibe misaun ONU nian tenke prepara an hodi halo pasu publiku no mós privadu hodi hatan ba violasaun grave ba regulamentu eleitoral. Resultadu ida hosi ONU nia presensa iha Timor-Leste ba tinan sanulu resin tolu maka ninia dedikasaun makaas ba eleisaun livre no justu, mezmu nu’udar apoiu-nain de’it.

Violensia eleitoral ne’ebe mosu iha istória badak Timor-Leste nian mak hanesan sintoma ba rivalidades polítiku maka’as. Abut rivalidades sira ne’e mak iha luta ba independensia no poder polítiku. Relasaun entre lider polítiku sira bele hadia iha longuprazu, maibe eziste pasu balun ne’ebé atór sira bele konsidera iha mediuprazu hodi hamenus tensaun. Pasu sira ne’e inklui halo eleisaun presidensial no parlamentar iha tinan la hanesan no suporta dezenvolvimentu ba sistema forte no independente hodi halo sondajen no halibur dadus kona-ba votasaun. Mudansa ba programa eleitoral bele hamenus tensaun besik tempu eleisaun. Sondajen ka informasaun di’ak liu bele ajuda partidu aliña sira nia espetativa ho realidade no hamenus presaun no risku ba violensia bainhira autoridade fahe resultadu eleisaun.

Maske eleisaun ne’ebe la iha violensia grave mak rekezitu ba ONU nia planu hodi taka ninia misaun iha Timor-Leste, kompetasaun forte no hakmatek mak importante duni ba nasaun nia estabilidade iha longuprazu. Ema Timor barak senti nervozu katak eleisaun sira ne’e bele hamosu violensia fali. To’o agora, mudansa barak hori 2006 seidauk realiza tanba ema balun sei tauk katak mudansa sira ne’e bele hamonu estabilidade. Eleisaun ne’ebe lao ho didi’ak bele fo konfianza ba governu foun hodi haka’as an atu kria konsensus no halo mudansa ne’ebe hamentin governasaun tuir lei nasaun nian.

Díli/Jakarta/Bruselas, 21 de fevereiru 2012

Commentary / Asia

Has Timor-Leste left behind its violent past?

Timor-Leste seems to have passed the test. With last Saturday’s parliamentary poll, it has now held three elections this year without significant violence. This will allow for the withdrawal of a UN peacekeeping mission whose 1,100-strong police component has long seemed out of synch with local realities. Its violent recent past may increasingly look like history, although the poor country that celebrated only the 10th anniversary of the restoration of its independence in May still faces numerous challenges.

Concerns that the formation of a new coalition government might give rise to violence, as occurred following the 2007 elections, now look misplaced as provisional results show only four parties due to take seats in parliament (official results are due next week). A look at the seat results shows that the CNRT (National Congress for Timorese Reconstruction) has increased its share from 18 to 30 seats, and looks likely to form another government with former coalition partner Partido Democrático (eight seats) and maybe Frenti-Mudança (two seats).This is good for stability in the short term, but it also carries risks. A stronger government composed of fewer parties may be able to pursue clearer legislative objectives, but it will put great pressure on FRETILIN as perhaps the only party in opposition. As a young country only ten years on from independence, Timor-Leste’s parliament continues to consider questions of fundamental importance to the country’s future on which there is much debate, such as how to spend the billions in its Petroleum Fund, or how to structure land administration. Chosen from party lists and not constituencies, giving them little incentive to engage with communities, Timor-Leste’s parliamentarians to date have struggled to provide either an effective check on the executive or a constructive partner by initiating their own legislation. CNRT’s dominance will mean less active scrutiny and will further erode its role as an instrument of accountability.

The elections were not violence-free. There were some minor incidents of stone throwing and a report of three houses being burnt in Viqueque district in the last few days. But even in this volatile part of Timor-Leste, it was much less than the hundreds burnt around the 2007 polls. When we visited the district in May and asked why, the answer from the police, local government, chefes de suco, and civil society workers alike was unanimous – the threats from heads of the police and army had worked. Their blunt warnings that troublemakers would be shot were backed up with high-profile joint patrols and those contemplating violence got the message. It was a victory for “conflict prevention” that raised new questions about how the country will be governed in the future.