Commentary

Diplomacy Must Prevail in Israel-Hizbollah Conflict

Thus far, Hizbollah and Israel have avoided a disastrous escalation on the Israeli-Lebanese border as the Gaza war rages. But trouble lies ahead. Western-led mediation remains the best way to restore security to the frontier.

Also available in العربية

Türkiye’s Growing Drone Exports

Low-cost and high-performing, Turkish-made armed drones are capturing an increasing share of the global market. This success comes with risks, including escalation of conflict and reputational damage, but there are several ways for Ankara to manage them.

Also available in Türkçe

Türkiye'nin Büyüyen İnsansız Hava Aracı İhracatı

Düşük maliyetli ve yüksek performansa sahip Türkiye yapımı silahlı insansız hava araçları küresel pazardaki payını giderek arttırıyor. Ancak, bu önemli başarı bazı jeopolitik ve insani riskleri de beraberinde getirebilir. Ankara, bu alandaki yaklaşımlarını geliştirerek bu riskleri yönetebilir.

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Crimes against the Climate: Violence and Deforestation in the Amazon

Organised crime has infiltrated the Amazon basin, seeking land for growing coca, rivers for drug trafficking and veins of gold underground. These groups are endangering the rainforest and the safety of those attempting to defend it. It is imperative that regional governments take protective measures.

Also available in Português, Español

Crimes contra o clima: violência e desmatamento na Amazônia

O crime organizado infiltrou-se na bacia amazônica, procurando terras para o cultivo de coca, rios para o tráfico de droga e veios de ouro subterrâneos. Esses grupos estão colocando em risco a floresta tropical e a segurança daqueles que tentam defendê-la. É imperativo que os governos regionais tomem medidas de proteção.

Also available in English, Español
Commentary / Africa

ECOWAS, Nigeria and the Niger Coup Sanctions: Time to Recalibrate

The sanctions imposed on Niger by the Economic Community of West African States after its July coup are hurting civilians more than anyone else. Led by Nigeria, the bloc should revise these measures to narrowly target the generals responsible for disrupting democracy.

Also available in Français
Commentary / Africa

Sanctions de la Cedeao après le coup d’État au Niger : un réajustement s’impose

Les sanctions imposées au Niger par la Communauté économique des États de l’Afrique de l’Ouest après le coup d’État de juillet affectent avant tout les civils. Sous l’impulsion du Nigéria, le bloc régional devrait réviser ces mesures pour cibler plus étroitement les généraux responsables d’avoir mis à mal la démocratie.

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Commentary / Global

How the UN Can Make the Most of the New Agenda for Peace

The UN Secretary-General has encountered resistance to many of the ideas for strengthening international peace and security he laid out in a July policy brief. Achieving consensus on large-scale multilateral reform will be hard, but a summit in 2024 is a focus for limited innovation.

Commentary / Asia

Why the Taliban Should Be Brought in from the Cold for Climate Talks

Surviving the impact of climate change and adapting to harsher new environments are collective tasks that need the cooperation of all countries, even Afghanistan under the outcast Taliban regime.

The Gaza War Reverberates Across the Middle East

As war rages in Gaza, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues to escalate, causing grievous harm to civilians and threatening stability across the Middle East. Crisis Group experts offer a 360-degree view of how various capitals in the region view this crisis and their own interests therein.

Also available in العربية

تداعيات حرب غزة تَعمُّ الشرق الأوسط

مع استِعار الحرب في قطاع غزة، يستمر الصراع الإسرائيلي–الفلسطيني بالتصاعد، ويتسبب بأضرار جسيمة على المدنيين، ويهدد الاستقرار في الشرق الأوسط بأسره. يقدم خبراء مجموعة الأزمات بانوراما شاملة حول مواقف العواصم المختلفة في المنطقة تجاه هذه الأزمة ومصالحها الخاصة فيها.

Also available in English

Deterrence between Israel and Hizbollah Must Hold

Thus far, October’s exchanges of fire between Hizbollah and Israel have stayed within the sides’ red lines. Still, with an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza looming, risks are tremendous. A Gaza ceasefire, while improbable, is the only way to rule out a broader war.

Also available in العربية

قوة الردع يجب أن تصمد بين إسرائيل وحزب الله

حتى الآن، لا تزال تبادلات إطلاق النار بين حزب الله وإسرائيل في تشرين الأول/أكتوبر ضمن الخطوط الحمر للطرفين. لكن مع قرب احتمال حدوث غزو بري لقطاع غزة، فإن المخاطر كبيرة جداً. وفي حين أن وقفاً لإطلاق النار أمر غير محتمل، فإنه يبقى السبيل الوحيد لتجنب حرب أوسع.

Also available in English

Building Momentum in EU-Türkiye Relations

Relations between Ankara and Brussels have been warming despite democratic backsliding in Türkiye. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023 – Autumn Update, Crisis Group explains how the EU and its member states can deepen this trend, cooperating with Türkiye in areas of mutual interest.

Also available in Français, Türkçe

Steering Tunisia away from Default

Tunisia’s socio-economic woes could get worse if it defaults on its debt. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023 – Autumn Update, Crisis Group advises the EU to encourage a revised loan deal with the IMF but to pressure Tunis on governance and human rights.

Also available in Français

Éviter le défaut de paiement en Tunisie

Les difficultés socio-économiques de la Tunisie pourraient s’aggraver en cas de défaut de paiement. Dans cet extrait de l'édition d’automne de la Watch List 2023, Crisis Group recommande à l’Union Européenne d’encourager un accord de prêt révisé avec le FMI, tout en faisant pression sur Tunis sur les questions de gouvernance et de droits humains.

Also available in English
Commentary / Asia

Rohingya Refugees in Bangladesh: Limiting the Damage of a Protracted Crisis

The Rohingya refugee crisis in Bangladesh looks set to drag on indefinitely. Insecurity in the overcrowded camps is growing. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023 – Autumn Update, Crisis Group urges Europe to keep providing humanitarian assistance and increase its intake of refugees.

Also available in Français
Commentary / Africa

Niger: Containing the Fallout from the Coup

West Africa has witnessed yet another coup, this time in Niger. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023 – Autumn Update, Crisis Group encourages the EU and its member states to support regional efforts to de-escalate tensions with the Nigerien junta.

Also available in Français
Commentary / Africa

Niger : maitriser les conséquences du coup d’État

L'Afrique de l'Ouest a été témoin d'un nouveau coup d'État, cette fois au Niger. Dans cet extrait de l’édition d’automne de la Watch List 2023, Crisis Group encourage l'UE et ses États membres à soutenir les efforts régionaux visant à désamorcer les tensions avec la junte nigérienne.

Also available in English

Colombia: Is "Total Peace" Back on Track?

Despite peace talks between the government and armed groups, levels of violence in Colombia remain high. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023 – Autumn Update, Crisis Group outlines how the EU can promote negotiations and encourage inclusiveness therein.

Also available in Français, Español

Colombie : la « paix totale » est-elle de nouveau sur la bonne voie ?

Malgré les pourparlers de paix entre le gouvernement et les groupes armés, les niveaux de violence en Colombie restent élevés. Dans cet extrait de l’édition d’automne de la Watch List 2023, Crisis Group souligne la manière dont l’Union européenne peut promouvoir les négociations et encourager l’inclusion.

Also available in English, Español

Colombia: ¿La “paz total” retoma su camino?

A pesar de las conversaciones entre el gobierno y los grupos armados, los niveles de violencia en Colombia siguen siendo altos. En este extracto de la actualización de otoño del Watch List 2023, Crisis Group explica cómo la UE y sus Estados miembros pueden promover las negociaciones y asegurar su inclusividad.

Also available in English, Français

Dynamiser les relations entre l’Union européenne et la Turquie

Les relations entre Ankara et Bruxelles se sont réchauffées malgré le recul démocratique en Turquie. Dans cet extrait de l’édition d’automne de la Watch List 2023, Crisis Group explique comment l'UE et ses États membres peuvent poursuivre ces efforts, en coopérant avec  la Turquie dans des domaines d'intérêt mutuel.

Also available in English, Türkçe
Commentary / Asia

Les réfugiés rohingyas au Bangladesh : limiter les conséquences d’une crise qui s’éternise

La crise des réfugiés rohingyas au Bangladesh semble s’inscrire dans la durée. L'insécurité dans les camps surpeuplés s'accroît. Dans cet extrait de l’édition d’automne de la Watch List 2023, Crisis Group exhorte l'Europe à continuer de fournir une assistance humanitaire et à accueillir un plus grand nombre de réfugiés.

Also available in English

AB-Türkiye İlişkilerine İvme Kazandırma

Türkiye'deki demokratik gerilemeye rağmen, Ankara ile Brüksel arasındaki ilişkiler ısınıyor. Kriz Grubu, İzleme Listesi 2023 – Sonbahar Güncellemesi’ne dahil edilen bu yazıda, AB ve üye devletlerin Türkiye ile ilişkileri nasıl derinleştirebileceği ve ortak çıkar alanlarında Türkiye ile nasıl iş birliğini geliştirebileceği ele alınıyor.

Also available in English, Français

A Welcome Humanitarian Deal between the U.S. and Iran

Washington and Tehran have reached an accord bringing U.S. hostages home from Iran and unfreezing Iranian assets. The agreement has much to recommend it, despite what critics say.

Also available in العربية

صفقة إنسانية مُرحَّب بها بين الولايات المتحدة وإيران

لقد توصلت واشنطن وطهران إلى اتفاق يعيد الرهائن الأميركيين إلى بلادهم من إيران ويرفع التجميد عن أصول إيرانية. للاتفاق الكثير من الحسنات، رغم ما يقوله منتقدوه.

Also available in English

Understanding Saudi Arabia’s Recalibrated Foreign Policy

Saudi Arabia and its ambitious crown prince are looking ahead to a new world in which it will enjoy a more prominent place. Yet unless the kingdom makes further changes on both the diplomatic and domestic fronts, its aspirations are likely to run into roadblocks.

Also available in العربية

فهم السياسة الخارجية السعودية بعد إعادة معايرتها

تتطلع السعودية وولي عهدها الطموح إلى عالم جديد تتمتع فيه المملكة بمكانة أكثر بروزاً. لكن ما لم تُجرِ المملكة مزيداً من التغييرات على الجبهتين الدبلوماسية والداخلية، من المرجح أن تواجه تطلعاتها العقبات.

 

Also available in English
Commentary / Asia

Sri Lanka Needs Truth, but Not (Yet) a Truth Commission

The Sri Lankan government has long evaded the UN Human Rights Council’s requests that it hold accountable perpetrators of atrocities committed during the country’s 26-year civil war and since. Absent changes responsive to its concerns, the Council should keep up the pressure. 

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