Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz asserted that “in the last five years, Iran has conducted at least sixteen separate attacks on civilian international vessels in the Gulf and the Red Sea”. He also contended that “Iran continues to build, expand and fortify its capabilities. Today should Iran decide to do so, it may reach SQ1 at 90 per cent enriched Uranium in only two weeks. The international community must take action – strengthening alliances, increasing intelligence cooperation, projecting power and responding forcefully to Iranian attacks and aggression”.

Latvia signed on to the International Maritime Security Construct (IMSC), joining ten other countries in the initiative.

Eastern Pacific Shipping Pte. Ltd. (EPS), affiliated with an Israeli businessman, reported that on 15 November its tanker Pacific Zircon “was hit by a projectile approximately 150 miles off the coast of Oman… there is some minor damage to the vessel’s hull”. U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan denounced the attack “in the strongest possible terms”, while maintaining: “We are confident that Iran likely conducted this attack using a UAV, a lethal capability it is increasingly employing directly and via its proxies throughout the Middle East and proliferating to Russia for use in Ukraine”. An unnamed Israeli official was cited as saying “it is an Iranian attack, there is consensus on this in the Israeli intelligence and defence community”.

Iran released Prudent Warrior and Delta Poseidon, two Greek oil tankers seized in May. 

The U.S. 5^th Fleet revealed that on 8 November it interdicted a vessel “in the Gulf of Oman smuggling lethal aid, including a large quantity of explosive material, from Iran to Yemen”; the four Yemeni crewmembers were repatriated and the ship sunk. A U.S. commander maintained that the 70 tonnes of ammonium perchlorate found abroad “was a massive amount of explosive material, enough to fuel more than a dozen medium-range ballistic missiles depending on the size”. The U.S. statement also highlighted that “the direct or indirect supply, sale or transfer of weapons to the Huthis violates UN Security Council Resolution 2216 and international law”.

The U.S. military denied claims by a senior Iranian commander regarding the seizure of two naval drones. 

Seychelles signed on to the International Maritime Security Construct (IMSC), joining nine other countries in the initiative.

An Iranian official reported that the IRGC had detained a vessel and its seven crew members for carrying smuggled fuel in the country’s southern waters. 

A senior CENTCOM commander maintained that “the most serious threats that we see do come from Iran. They come in two forms: the growth and capability and numbers of cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and UAVs, as well as their use of proxies in those particular weapons”.

The U.S. and UK held a joint maritime drill “which featured the use of unmanned systems and artificial intelligence to enhance maritime monitoring by crewed ships and operators ashore”.

Iranian border guards seized a vessel carrying smuggled fuel in the country’s southern waters.

Iran detained a vessel and its crew of seven for smuggling fuel in the country’s southern waters.

The U.S. Navy reported that on 1 September it had “intercepted an Iranian warship that seized and detained two U.S. unmanned surface vessels operated by U.S. 5th Fleet in the Red Sea… The Iranian warship released the Saildrones”. Iran’s navy stated that its destroyer had found the USVs “abandoned” and “inevitably took action to stop the vessels in order to prevent possible terrorist incidents and prevented the occurrence of unforeseen accidents”. On 4 September, Iranian Chief of Staff Bagheri asserted: “Our vessels will not tolerate such [foreign unmanned] units in their routes and will take action against them in the same way that it has already happened”.

The commander of CENTCOM criticised “Iran’s continued destabilising, illegal and unprofessional activity in the Middle East” after an IRGC ship attempted to seize a U.S. unmanned surface vessel in international waters. According to the U.S., “actions taken by U.S. naval forces in response resulted in the IRGCN vessel disconnecting the towing line to the USV and departing the area approximately four hours later”. The IRGC Navy rejected the U.S. version of events as “ridiclous”, suggesting that the USV’s “navigation communications were cut off”, therefore, Iranian forces towed it “with the aim of securing the shipping route and preventing a possible accident”.

An Iranian official reported the seizure of a vessel and detention of seven crew members allegedly carrying smuggled fuel in the country’s southern waters.

The IRGC reported seizing a vessel carrying smuggled fuel off Iran’s southern coast.

Iran’s Navy reported that one of its ships had, after receiving a distress signal from an Iranian commercial vessel, exchanged fire with “attacking boats” whose origin was not specified.

President Raisi told French President Macron that “Iran considers reaching an agreement dependent on the full resolution of [IAEA] safeguard issues and the provision of necessary guarantees, including the continued valid adherence of the parties to the agreement and the provision of the economic interests of the Iranian nation”.

The IRGC Navy’s commander told his Omani counterpart that Israel “gaining a foothold in the Persian Gulf region will have no result other than sowing sedition and creating insecurity”, and further assessed that the “countries of the Persian Gulf region have the required capacity and capability to preserve the security of this sensible region”.

Iran’s Navy unveiled in the Indian Ocean what was described as the country’s “first drone carrier division… capable of carrying various combat, surveillance and suicide drones”.

Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz contended that “Iran is expanding its aggressive operations in the region in general, and in the naval arena in particular”. Presenting satellite images, Gantz maintained that “the presence of Iran’s military forces in the Red Sea in recent months is the most significant in a decade. It is a direct threat to trade, energy and the global economy”.

U.S. Naval Forces Central Command reported that “three vessels from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) interacted in an unsafe and unprofessional manner as U.S. Navy ships transited the Strait of Hormuz… [while] conducting a routine transit in international waters”, adding: “The IRGCN’s actions did not meet international standards of professional or safe maritime behaviour, increasing the risk of miscalculation and collision”. Too, the navy disclosed a similar “unsafe and unprofessional” incident that had taken place on 4 March.

The IRGC announced the arrest of what was described as a major fuel smuggling network. The same day, an Iranian official reported the seizure of a vessel carrying smuggled fuel off Iran’s southern coast, and detention of its six crewmembers.

U.S. Central Command announced that “coalition and regional partner air forces joined two U.S. Air Force B-52 Stratofortresses… on a presence patrol mission across the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility” the previous day. A senior U.S. commander highlighted that “these highly coordinated efforts demonstrate our combined ability to provide global reach and joint security to the region”.

Yemen’s internationally-recognised government seized “a boat with six Iranian sailors on board” carrying a narcotics cargo. The Yemeni information minister contended that the “Iranian regime was not satisfied with smuggling ballistic missiles, drones, weapons, ammunition and IEDs experts for Huthi terrorist militia, rather it deliberately flood Yemen with drugs”. He further called on the “international community, UN and UNSC to condemn Iranian regime practices and take a clear and firm stance towards its terrorist activities”.

An Iranian official reported that coast guards had seized a vessel carrying smuggled fuel and arrested its crew members. The following day, a similar incident was reported, again off Iran’s southern coast.

Following reports of the U.S. seizing Iranian oil aboard a tanker off the coast of Greece, the IRGC declared that it had seized two Greek oil tankers, identified as Prudent Warrior and Delta Poseidon. According to industry sources, the former was carrying a U.S.-bound cargo from Iraq and the latter was heading from Iraq to Greece. The Greek foreign ministry delivered a “strong-worded demarche” to Iran’s ambassador, condemned what it described as “actions… essentially tantamount to acts of piracy” and “called for the immediate release of the ships and their crews”. On 30 May, speaking with his Greek counterpart, Secretary of State Antony Blinken denounced the seizure “in the strongest terms” and contended: “Iran’s continued harassment of vessels and interference with navigational rights and freedoms are a threat to maritime security and the global economy”. 

The EU Naval Force reported that the Hong Kong-flagged sailing vessel Lakota came under armed attack off the coast of Hodeida by “three boats, with five person on-board with civilian clothes”, adding: “The sailing vessel managed to escape and the crew is safe”.

An Iranian official reported the seizure of a vessel carrying smuggled fuel and detention of seven crew members.

U.S. Naval Forces Central Command reported that a destroyer patrolling in the Gulf of Oman had interdicted “illegal narcotics during a flag verification boarding”, taking custody of the drugs and fishing vessel. “The vessel’s nine crew members identified themselves as Iranian nationals and will be transferred to a regional nation for repatriation”, the statement added.

An Iranian official reported that the IRGC had detained a vessel carrying smuggled fuel, along with its four crew members.

CENTCOM Commander Erik Kurilla described “Iran as the most destabilising force in the Middle East”, adding: “The U.S.’s position is that we will not allow a nuclear Iran. However, our concerns about Iran go beyond its nuclear capability”. He further indicated that “we are concerned about the smuggling of advanced conventional munitions by sea to support Huthi operations. Therefore, anti-smuggling operations with the Royal Saudi Naval Forces will serve as an area of focus for me… maintaining safe and secure waterways is a critical responsibility for us and our partners”.

Iran’s IRGC reported seizing a foreign vessel carrying smuggled fuel off the southern coast; the crew of eight were arrested. According to the statement, “five other boats that intended to refuel the foreign-flagged vessel were also taken into custody for further investigation”.

Iran’s navy commander remarked that “the northern Indian Ocean is a main waterway to connect the continents. If we do not have an effective presence, governments without a right will come [to the region] and approach our territorial waters. However, owing to the authority and presence of our fleet in high seas and constant monitoring, we do not have any problems and no country dares approach our country's waters”. “We escort our ships in all the waters across the globe to ensure [their] security and we are faced with no restrictions”, he added.

The IRGC reported seizing a vessel carrying “smuggled fuel in the Persian Gulf”; the crew of seven were arrested.

Iran’s defence minister told his Japanese counterpart of “Iran’s stance on the necessity of providing the security of navigation and said that the presence of foreign forces was illegitimate and detrimental to security”. According to Japan’s defence ministry, their minister “explained the extension of the JSDF information gathering activities in the Middle East”.

The Saudi foreign ministry announced that the Kingdom and Kuwait had “agreed to expedite the development and exploitation of the Dorra field”, noting that they “had previously invited the Islamic Republic of Iran to negotiate the delimitation of the eastern boundary of the submerged divided zone but these call were not met”.  The two countries “as a single negotiating party, renew their invitation to the Islamic Republic of Iran to hold these negotiations”, Riyadh indicated.

The U.S. Fifth Fleet’s commander announced the establishment of a new naval task force as part of the 34-nation Combined Maritime Forces to patrol the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Bab al-Mandab beginning 17 April. Admiral Brad Cooper said the initiative would “enhance security and stability in the Red Sea and the region”, adding that “the standup of this organisation really reflects a regional consensus on the importance of maritime security in these bodies of water”.

The IRGC detained a “foreign ship carrying smuggled fuel in the Persian Gulf”; eleven foreign crew members were arrested.

IRGC Commander Hossein Salami remarked that “some regimes to the south of the Persian Gulf have established political and security relations with the Zionist regime [ie, Israel], which poses a serious threat to the security of the region and especially those regimes… The continuation of such relations are not acceptable at all, and they should know that the existence of the evil Zionist regime everywhere is a cause of insecurity”.

Romania signed on to the International Maritime Security Construct (IMSC), joining eight other countries in the initiative.

The U.S. said it was “deeply disappointed and troubled by the presence of Iranian military officials and reportedly Iran’s IRGC officers at the Doha Defense Show”, adding: “We utterly reject their presence… as it is Iran that is [the] biggest threat to maritime stability in the Gulf region. Transactions related to Iranian weapons are generally sanctionable under multiple U.S. authorities”.

The U.S. and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) held Working Groups on Integrated Air and Missile Defence and Maritime Security in Riyadh. Participants denounced “Iran’s malign behaviour through proxies and direct use of advanced ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS). Iran has used these weapons and supported terrorist and other armed groups to conduct hundreds of attacks in the region”. They further emphasised “the importance of strengthening the ability of the GCC countries to collectively address these threats”, noting too “the importance of having advancing integrated defence initiatives” as well as prospective “joint training and exercises to prevent Iran from holding the region at risk”.

A U.S. official reported that the Huthis on 5 March fired a missile into the Red Sea, adding: “Although maritime traffic was not impacted in this instance, these actions are destabilising and present a danger to all vessels transiting a critical international waterway”.

The IRGC reported seizing “two vessels carrying smuggled fuel… [bound for] the Persian Gulf states”.

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett indicated that “recently we have seen a rise in threats on the maritime front, in sailing and shipping lanes. I certainly see this as a threat, and we must know that the target is the State of Israel, but not only [the State of Israel]. Therefore, I am particularly pleased with the growing and solidifying strategic cooperation with the U.S. on joint naval exercises and with other allies in the region”.

The U.S. Navy announced that on 18 January it “interdicted a stateless fishing vessel… transiting from Iran in waters outside of any state’s territorial sea along a route historically used to traffic weapons to the Huthis in Yemen”, adding: “U.S. forces discovered 40 tons of urea fertilizer, a chemical compound with agricultural applications that is also known to be used as an explosive precursor”. According to the statement, “the vessel, cargo and five Yemeni crewmembers” were handed over Yemeni authorities.

UK Maritime Trade Operations said it had “received reports of an attack on an MV [motor vessel]… approximately 23 nautical miles west of Ras Isa Marine Terminal”. The Saudi-led coalition identified the vessel as the UAE-flagged Rwabee, accused the Huthis of “piracy and hijacking” and indicated that the ship had been “carrying medical field equipment”. The Huthis maintained that it had “entered Yemeni waters without authorisation” and bore “clearly military equipment”. The U.S. denounced the seizure, calling on “the Huthis to immediately release the ship and crew unharmed and to cease all violence that sets back the political process to end the war in Yemen”.

The IRGC concluded a five-day drill by testing sixteen ballistic missiles as well as drones. Iran’s military chief of staff indicated that the drill had been “planned in advance, but the numerous, empty threats of the Zionist regime’s [ie, Israel] officials in recent days caused this exercise to take place at this time”.

The IRGC tested “combat drones as well as sophisticated ballistic and cruise missiles” during military exercises off Iran’s southern coast; an IRGC naval commander asserted that the drill had a “message of peace” and maintained: “we the countries of the region can fully ensure the security of the Persian Gulf and shared waters via collective cooperation, and we do not need the presence of extra-regional countries at all”.

CENTCOM reported that “a U.S. Navy vessel rescued two Iranian mariners… from a fishing vessel after it was adrift for eight days in the Gulf of Oman”.

Defense Minister Benny Gantz highlighted two Iranian facilities that he asserted served as bases for UAV operations, noting that “most of the drone attacks that we’ve seen so far have been from southern and south-eastern Iran against targets at sea”. On the nuclear issue, Gantz maintained: “a diplomatic solution is preferable, but alongside that we need to have on the table the use of force… Sometimes the use of force, and a demonstration of it, is able to prevent the need for a stronger use of force”.

The IRGC announced the seizure in Iranian waters of “a foreign ship carrying smuggled fuel”; the crew of eleven were detained.

The IRGC Navy’s commander claimed Iran had “slap[ed] the Americans six times in one and a half years of confrontation, many of which have not been covered by the media yet”. “We in the IRGC Navy have sacrificed nine martyrs in direct battles with the Americans to defend the territory of our beloved country in the Persian Gulf… [and in return] we were able to give them nine memorable slaps”, he added.

The Pentagon reported an “unsafe and unprofessional” interaction involving an Iranian helicopter and the USS Essex on 11 November. A spokesperson asserted that “there was no impact ultimately to the Essex’s transit or its operations”, and went on to assert: “when you have another armed force - in this case, the Iranian navy - that flies like this, you definitely run the risk of some sort of escalation and a miscalculation on either side here, and that’s not helpful. This one ended peacefully, but it doesn’t mean it was safe and professional. It absolutely wasn’t”. 

Iranian media claimed that the army had “intercepted two U.S. unmanned aerial vehicles that had penetrated into the country’s airspace during a military exercise, giving them stern warnings to stay away from the zone… the aircraft veered away and left the region shortly afterward”.

Media reports cited unnamed U.S. officials as indicating that “several drones, believed to be Iranian, had come close to the U.S. Navy amphibious assault ship Essex in the Strait of Hormuz”.

The IRGC claimed to have “thwarted an attack by U.S. terrorist forces on an Iranian tanker to confiscate its oil in the Sea of Oman” on 25 October. The Pentagon called the account “totally false and untrue”, with a spokesperson asserting that “the only seizing that was done was by Iran”. The vessel in question was identified as MV Southys, sailing under a Vietnamese flag. The Vietnamese foreign ministry indicated that they would “continue to closely follow the developments and work closely with Iranian authorities to resolve this issue”. On 10 November, the IRGC announced the tanker’s release after unloading its oil cargo in Iran.

The Iranian navy reported foiling “a pirate attack on one of the country’s oil tankers en route to the Gulf of Aden before entering Bab al-Mandab Strait”.

The U.S. military announced that “one U.S. Air Force B1-B ‘Lancer’ aircrew flew a presence patrol mission in the Central Region that included several partner nation air forces”, including Bahrain, Israel and Saudi Arabia. According to CENTCOM, “the bomber task force mission – the fifth in U.S. Central Command’s area of operation this year – was intended to deliver a clear message of reassurance”, with a route that “originated in the Indian Ocean, flew over the Gulf of Aden, Bab al-Mandab Strait, Red Sea, Suez Canal, Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman before departing the region”. 

U.S. Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT), alongside with Bahrain, conducted a two-day drill which it said “marked the first time NAVCENT integrated USVs [unmanned surface vessels] with manned assets at sea… [and] the first time for NAVCENT’s integration of USVs with manned assets at sea alongside partner forces”. NAVCENT’s commander stated that “working with our regional partners on unmanned systems integration is crucial to enhancing collective maritime domain awareness… Bahrain, as our first regional partner to collaborate with Task Force 59 during an at-sea exercise, demonstrates the strengthening of our strategic relationship”.

The commander of Iran’s navy reported that “the 78th naval fleet of the Islamic Republic of Iran, consisting of the Alborz destroyer, was attacked by five pirate boats… [in the Gulf of Aden] while escorting two Iranian tankers”. The attack was thwarted after “a heavy exchange of fire”, he added.

The IRGC released footage purporting to show “an encounter between its speedboats and two U.S. vessels in the Persian Gulf”, wherein “the speedboats chase after the American vessels until they leave the area”. A U.S. military spokesperson was cited as saying “he wasn’t aware of any sort of unsafe interaction with Iran in the last two days”.

Speaking alongside with his Bahraini counterpart in Manama, Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid remarked that “together with all our friends in the Gulf, we are leading a brave coalition of moderates who are looking ahead to create a prosperous future of stability and tolerance… Those who are reclusive will disappear. Those who cooperate will lead both the world and the Middle East”. He went on to say that “our opportunities [with Bahrain] are shared, our threats are shared, and they are not far from here”. The two officials also met with the U.S. commander of NAVCENT, and held “a discussion on regional maritime security cooperation”. Iranian Foreign Minister Amirabdollahian subsequently warned that “Tel Aviv will bring nothing but insecurity for Bahrain and the region”, and a diplomatic spokesperson, who claimed that “this stain will not be erased from the reputation of Bahrain’s rulers”, argued that “the people of the region will continue to oppose the process of normalisation of ties”.

Iran’s diplomatic spokesperson asserted that “there has been remarkable progress in the talks over security in the Persian Gulf… talks [between Tehran and Riyadh] have never stopped  and messages have been exchanged in proper level after the new administration in Iran took office”. He further said that “if Saudi Arabia pays serious attention to Iran’s message that the solution to the region’s problems lies in the region itself and there should be an inclusive regional solution, the two countries may have a good, sustainable relationship”.

The U.S. military announced the formation of Task Force 59, based at Naval Forces Central Command. The commander of NAVCENT explained that “we need to get unmanned systems out into the fleet”, and indicated that the objective was to “enhance our maritime domain awareness and to increase our deterrence”.

Israel’s defence minister indicated that “our assessment is that the UAV employed in the [July 2021] Mercer Street attack was launched from Iranian territory and approved by Iranian leadership”.

Addressing a UN Security Council session on maritime security, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed the 29 July attack on the M/T Mercer Street off the coast of Oman, asserting that “we are confident that Iran conducted this unjustified attack, which is part of a pattern of attacks and other provocative behaviour”. “It is on all of our nations to hold accountable those responsible”, Blinken added. “Failing to do so will only fuel their sense of impunity and embolden others inclined to disregard the maritime order”. Iran’s UN representative rejected the claims, insisting that “there is no irrefutable, verifiable and conclusive evidence” of Iranian involvement and contending that “it is an open secret that Israel is the master in conducting false flag operations”.

The U.S. military announced that an investigation into a 29 July drone attack against a tanker off the coast of Oman had concluded that the “UAV was produced in Iran”. The same day, the U.S. joined other G-7 in a statement condemning the attack as “deliberate and targeted”, adding: “Iran’s behaviour, alongside its support to proxy forces and non-state armed actors, threatens international peace and security. We call on Iran to stop all activities inconsistent with relevant UN Security Council resolutions, and call on all parties to play a constructive role in fostering regional stability and peace”. Responding to the statement, Israel’s foreign minister asserted that “Iran isn’t just an Israeli problem, it’s a global problem. It’s time for the world to hold the Iranian regime to account”. Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett subsequently contended that following the G-7 statement “it has become a test of actions and not just statements”, adding: “Iran constitutes a clear danger to the stability of the region and the peace of the world and the world must not accept this. The Iranians need to understand that it is impossible to continue running amok without paying a price”.

Israel’s defence and foreign ministers told UN Security Council ambassadors that the Israeli government had “acted in all possible diplomatic and security channels in order to call on the international community to set clear boundaries for Iran and to cease its aggressive conduct”, underscoring that “Israel will maintain the right to act independently in the face of any attack or threat” and also noting that “action may be taken through the UN Security Council or any other international framework that will hold Iran accountable for its actions”. Defence Minister Benny Gantz named two Iranian IRGC officials whom he said were involved in Iranian drone operations, including the 29 July attack against the M/T Mercer Street, and, further asserting that Iran “is only ten weeks away from acquiring weapons-grade materials necessary for a nuclear weapon”, contended: “It is time for diplomatic, economic and even military deeds – otherwise the attacks will continue”. The same day, Iran sent a letter to the UN Security Council characterising the Israeli claim as “factually wrong and politically and ethically irresponsible”.

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett asserted: “regarding the ship and the Iranian issue in general: We are working on enlisting the world but at the same time, we also know how to act alone. Iran already knows the price that we exact when someone threatens our security. The Iranians need to understand that it is impossible to sit peacefully in Tehran and from there ignite the entire Middle East”. “Against Iran, speeches are not enough”, Bennett added.

Two people were killed in an incident aboard the M/T Mercer Street, a Japanese-owned ship managed by Zodiac Maritime, UK-based company owned by an Israeli businessman. Zodiac Maritime reported that “at the time of the incident, the vessel was in the northern Indian Ocean”, and that it had subsequently travelled “to a safe location with a U.S. naval escort”. The U.S. military indicated that “initial indications clearly point to a UAV-style [ie, drone] attack”. Israeli foreign minister Yair Lapid asserted that “Iran is not just an Israeli problem, but an exporter of terrorism and instability that harms us all. The world must not be silent in the face of Iranian terrorism that also harms freedom of shipping”. Iran’s foreign ministry denied involvement in the attack, accusing Israel of “bogus allegations”.

Iran’s navy commander indicated that “while the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman are a safe and stable region, in recent years we have witnessed increased insecurity in the Gulf of Aden and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and that’s why we do not understand the [reason for] the presence of coalition forces in the Persian Gulf. We believe that the main purpose of their presence is to undermine dialogue between the effective [regional] navies”. Referring to U.S. and European deployments, he further noted that “we monitor and keep a watchful eye on all their movements and vessels, even from a far distance… [and] believe that such uncalled-for security combinations do not enhance collective security and should be suspended”. Relatedly, GCC officials met with a senior U.S. naval official and, according to a GCC readout, “stressed the importance of enhancing cooperation in maritime security”.

The Kharq, an Iranian navy vessel used for logistics and training, sank off the coast of Jask; a military spokesperson said a fire “had started from the engine house” and proved uncontainable.

An Indonesian official announced the release of an Iranian tanker seized in January over “the suspected illegal transfer of oil”; Tehran had described the ship’s detention as stemming from “a technical issue”.

Commenting on “tensions between Israel and Iran… in the Gulf and the Red Sea”, CENTCOM Commander Kenneth McKenzie maintained that the “low level engagement that’s continued over a period could certainly lead to an expansion of hostilities and some miscalculation or provocation could occur there. And we watch that very closely”. He further was asked about the idea of a hotline with Iran and maintained: “It takes two sides that want to have that happen for that to occur… In general, it is a good thing to be able to communicate. It decreases the probability of miscalculation. It allows military to military communications, which can often reduce tensions”.

The Pentagon announced that “thirteen ‘fast boats’ with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy precariously approached U.S. Navy and Coast Guard vessels that were operating in the Strait of Hormuz. After those ships failed to heed warnings to move away to a safe distance, the U.S. fired warning shots”. A spokesperson asserted that “harassment by the IRGC Navy is not a new phenomenon… this kind of activity is the kind of activity that could lead to somebody getting hurt, and could lead to a real miscalculation in the region, and that doesn’t serve anybody’s interests”. The IRGC Navy asserted that the U.S. was “making false and unrealistic allegations”, and contended that the “Americans must strictly abide by international regulations and the laws of navigation”. The IRGC statement further characterised “the illegal, unprofessional and high-risk behavior of foreign forces, especially the U.S. Navy Fleet, which poses a threat to the maritime security of this sensitive area, as their red line”.

A Pentagon spokesperson indicated that “we have… made clear through diplomatic channels our concerned [sic] about IRGC navy activities”, adding: “The IRGC’s not the Iranian state navy and doesn’t have the same reporting structure as the Iranian state navy. Our interactions with the Iranian state navy have remained professional, but that’s a whole different reporting chain up to the elected government, and the IRGC doesn’t report along those same lines”. He further maintained that “you don’t need a hotline with the IRGC to communicate”, adding: “I don’t believe that there’s a need, nor… I would suspect no appetite for any sort of operational or strategic communication between us and the IRGC. We have diplomatic channels that we work through appropriately to communicate our displeasure to Tehran”. The spokesperson asserted that “our commanders at sea have the right and responsibility to defend themselves against threats”, and noted: “This incident [on 26 April]… did finally result in what ended up finally breaking the fever… Nobody wants to even see it come to that”.

IRGC navy commander Alireza Tangsiri asserted that “every ship that enters the Persian Gulf is monitored in the Strait of Hormuz, citing the law on channel control, and is forced to introduce itself”. He also contended that the “strategic position of the Persian Gulf has to some extent led to regional challenges, including the fierce competition in the field of military arms sales… The wrong policies of some countries in the Persian Gulf have created a kind of market for the sale and trade of arms between the transregional and western countries in the Persian Gulf”. A U.S. defence official subsequently noted “no such requirement” regarding identification, adding: “It’s an international strait, and we continue to sail and operate in accordance with international law and international custom”.

Discussing Iran-Israel tensions, CENTCOM Commander Kenneth McKenzie stressed that “it is not our desire to have a war with Iran. And we would hope it is not their desire to have a war with us… There is a low-level conflict that’s being fought out across the theater. But we do not intend to enter that conflict”.

The U.S. Navy stated that the previous day, “three Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy fast inshore attack craft failed to exercise due regard for the safety of other vessels… as they came into close proximity to U.S. naval vessels in international waters of the north Arabian Gulf”. The navy reported that “U.S. crews issued multiple warnings… but the IRGCN vessels continued their close range maneuvers. The crew of [USS] Firebolt then fired warning shots, and the IRGC vessels moved away to a safe distance”. It went on assert that “the IRGCN’s actions increased the risk of miscalculation and/or collision”, and underscored that “our commanding officers retain the inherent right to act in self-defence”.

CENTCOM Commander Kenneth McKenzie assessed that “the activities we usually see from the IRGC navy [in the Gulf] are not necessarily activities directed by the Supreme Leader from the Iranian state, rather irresponsible actions by local commanders on scene”. He added that “we are very careful so as not to get into a provocative cycle as a result of that. Luckily our guys are very good… and they’re able to de-escalate”. Referring to Iranian naval mines, McKenzie noted that it was “an area of significant concern to me, given Iran’s number of mines, their proximity to the Strait of Hormuz and the difficulty of minesweeping in a congested waterway”.

Media reports citing U.S. navy officials indicated that on 2 April, “a group of boats from Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps harassed two U.S. Coast Guard ships… in the Persian Gulf”. “The American crews issued multiple warnings over a three-hour period as the Iranian ships continued to buzz them… after approximately three hours of the U.S. issuing warnings and conducting defensive maneuvers, the IRGCN vessels maneuvered away from the U.S. ships and opened distance between them”, a U.S. navy spokesperson reported; according to the Fifth Fleet it was the first instance of an “unsafe and unprofessional” interaction involving Iranian and U.S. vessels since April 2020. 

U.S. CENTCOM Commander Kenneth McKenzie described the threat of sea mines as an “example of an Iranian asymmetric capability that they can employ against [the U.S.]”, and further assessed: “the Strait of Hormuz is a logical place for them to do that… There’s another area though that is also of concern to us and that’s the Bab al-Mandab in the Southern Red Sea where they might be able to do it through their Huthi proxies down there”. Relatedly, the commander of U.S. AFRICOM assessed that “Iranian military capabilities threaten sea-lanes through the Red Sea and our posture locations in the Horn of Africa. Iranian support to Yemen’s Huthis further jeopardises freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and increases tensions and instability in East Africa”.

Meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, President Rouhani was quoted as contending that “allowing the Israeli regime a foothold in the Persian Gulf region is ‘dangerous’, given the fact that the regime is a ‘destabilising and provocative’ element”. In a separate conversation with the Qatari Emir, President Rouhani underlined “the need to resolve regional issues and crises, including the Yemeni crisis, through dialogue and negotiation”, adding: “the only successful way to ensure security, peace and stability in the region is resolving issues peacefully, responsibility and taking into account the collective interests, and we believe that militarism cannot resolve regional issues”.

Media reports indicated that “a commercial vessel owned by an Israeli firm was attacked off the coast of the United Arab Emirates”. Initial accounts in the Israeli press indicated that “officials in Jerusalem believe Iran is responsible”, while the ship, identified as Hyperion Ray, was said to have sustained “a small amount of damage”.

Iran’s foreign ministry confirmed the release of a South Korean oil tanker seized by the IRGC in January, purportedly “due to the violation of environmental rules”. “Following the completion of the investigation into the violation of the Korean ship and at the request of the owner and the Korean government for the release, the prosecutor ordered the release of the ship”, the spokesperson noted.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry confirmed that an Iranian ship, the Saviz, was hit the day before by an explosion in the Red Sea, causing “minor damage with no casualties”. “The Saviz civilian ship was stationed… to provide maritime security along the shipping lanes and to fight pirates”, the ministry added, placing the incident near the Djibouti coast. Washington denied involvement in the incident, while media reports citing a U.S. official indicated that “the Israelis had notified the U.S. that its forces had struck the vessel… [in] retaliation for earlier Iranian strikes on Israeli vessels”.

Asked about Israel’s involvement in a 12 March “terrorist attack” on an Iranian cargo vessel, Defence Minister Benny Gantz maintained that “I’m not saying anything about what we did or didn’t do. We have an obligation to be preemptive on all fronts… By land, they [ie, Iranians] are supporting militias in Iraq and Syria – and by air and sea, they are sending weapons to Lebanon”. Iran’s diplomatic spokesperson subsequently contended that “given the geographical location of the attack it is possible that this terrorist act was carried out by the Zionist regime [ie, Israel]”. He further asserted that “Iran would consider all options when it finds out who has been involved in this operation, and will resort to them to protect its legitimate rights”.

An Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines spokesperson asserted that an Iranian cargo vessel bound for Europe, Shahr-e Kord, had on 10 March been “damaged in [a] terrorist attack in the international waters of the Mediterranean sea”. He further stated that “such terrorist acts amount to naval piracy, and are contrary to international law on commercial shipping security, and legal action will be taken to identify the perpetrators”. The announcement came one day after media reports citing U.S. officials suggested that since 2019 Israel had “targeted at least a dozen vessels bound for Syria and mostly carrying Iranian oil”. 

Commenting on a 26 February explosion on an Israeli-owned vessel in the Gulf of Oman, Prime Minister Netanyahu contended that “this was indeed an operation by Iran”, while asserting: “Iran is Israel’s biggest enemy. I am determined to fend it off. We are striking at it all over the region”. Iran’s diplomatic spokesperson denied any involvement in the incident, adding: “the security of the Persian Gulf is extremely important for Iran and we will not allow them to spread fear in the region by such accusations”. He further noted that Iran was “monitoring all the actions made by the [Israeli] regime in security zone of Iran in the past few months, and we will give a response where it happens”.

Iran’s navy commander remarked that “the navy of the army has a strong presence in the Red Sea and escorts the tankers of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which are threatened by proxy terrorist groups to make sure the vessels safely cross the Bab al-Mandeb Strait to the Red Sea”. He further asserted that “the enemies wanted to close the ports on us in the first phase, and in the second phase to close the seas and sea routes to our trade ships and oil tankers… the deployment of the navy had disrupted all of the enemy’s equations at sea”.

Against the backdrop of a joint Russian-Iranian naval drill, a senior Iranian military official remarked that “the North Indian Ocean is located between three of the world’s five strategic straits and, in fact, surrounds the world’s energy, doubling the need for maritime security due to the move of merchant vessels and tankers in this sensitive area”.

Meeting with the Qatari foreign minister in Tehran, President Rouhani asserted that “we remain committed to the Hormuz Peace Endeavour (HOPE) initiative and believe that peace and stability in the region will not be achieved except through cooperation and dialogue between the countries of the region, and it is the countries of the region that must decide for their own”.

Iran’s defence minister asserted that “Iran does not welcome militarisation of the [Indian Ocean] region and is concerned about unconstructive arms races, accumulation of weapons and transformation of the region into a weapons arsenal”. He further cautioned against what he described as “U.S. and Israeli attempts to use terrorism as a tool to extend their influence in the region”, while voicing “Iran’s willingness to play a more significant and active role in maintaining the security of the Indian Ocean region”.

Iran released the crew of the Hankuk Chemi, a South Korean-flagged tanker seized on 4 January for having caused “environmental pollution”.

Indonesian officials announced the seizure of “an Iranian tanker and Panamanian tanker suspected of carrying out the illegal transfer of oil”. Acknowledging the incident, Iran’s diplomatic spokesperson described it as a “technical issue”.

Foreign Minister Javad Zarif maintained that Iran would “respond positively to any initiative for regional dialogue advanced in good faith”. He also contended that “neither the U.S. nor its European allies have the prerogative to lead or sponsor future talks. Rather, the Persian Gulf region needs an inclusive regional mechanism to encourage diplomacy and cooperation and to lower the risk of miscalculation and conflict”. He further referred to Iran’s Hormuz Peace Endeavor (HOPE) proposal and said: “The invitation is still on the table”.

South Korean media reports citing a diplomatic source indicated that South Korea had “moved its anti-piracy naval unit operating near the Strait of Hormuz away from the waterway to foster a positive mood ahead of negotiations with Iran over a seized oil tanker and its sailors”.

The IRGC test fired ballistic missiles and drones during a military exercise in central Iran. A senior IRGC official claimed that “through the combination of new missile capabilities and drone operation with artificial intelligence, today a new power was born in the IRGC”. On the second day of the drill, a senior IRGC official reported that “various classes of long-range ballistic missiles were launched in the final stage of the war game… to detonate the hypothetical enemy’s warships from a distance of 1,800km north of the Indian Ocean”. IRGC Commander Hossein Salami maintained that “these exercises are held so that the enemies do not make mistakes in their calculations or estimation about Iran's defence power”.

Against the backdrop of war games in the Gulf of Oman, Iran’s military chief of staff, Mohammad Baqeri, announced that Iran would “once again include the Red Sea in the list of zones for its naval patrol operations after a series of limited actions against Iranian trade vessels”. On the second day of the military exercise, Iran’s navy commander asserted that “our approach today is not just defensive. We are prepared for whatever offensive operation [as well]”. The same day, the Iranian army reported spotting a foreign submarine approaching the drill zone, which “left the region immediately after being traced”.

IRGC Navy Commander Alireza Tangsiri maintained that “the naval forces of the IRGC and the Iranian Army are present in the Persian Gulf and this presence continues through the southern waters to the Indian Ocean”, emphasising that “[they] are fully prepared against any aggression”.­­­

The IRGC inaugurated an underground missile base on Iran’s southern coast. IRGC Commander Hossein Salami remarked that “this is one of the several facilities for keeping the strategic missiles of IRGC naval force in which a column of missiles and launching systems are deployed… With a range of hundreds of kilometers, these missiles have pinpointing and high destruction capability to penetrate into the enemy’s electronic war equipment”. He further asserted that “our enemies do not accept the power of logic, but rely on the logic of power. Therefore, we have no option but to strengthen the defensive and offensive deterrent power for preventing the imposition of their hegemonic will and plots”. 

U.S. Central Command announced that it had dispatched two B-52H bombers to “the Arabian Gulf and back to send a clear deterrent message”. “The temporary deployment, the fourth in the last two months… is one element of a robust U.S. defensive posture that includes the USS Nimitz (CVN-68) aircraft carrier and other assets”, the statement added. A U.S. military spokesperson emphasised that “America doesn’t seek conflict… This mission is a measured approach to demonstrate that we are committed to the defence of our forces in the region and are capable of responding to any aggression on short notice”.

IRGC Commander Hossein Salami warned that “the enemy should be careful about its miscalculations in the region”, adding: “We have rolled up our sleeves for the security of Persian Gulf”.

Iran’s diplomatic spokesperson maintained that “the actions and moves and some mischief of the U.S. are not hidden from our eyes, and our intelligence, security and military services are fully aware of the seemingly secret moves of the U.S. in the region and Iraq”. “The messages have been clearly conveyed to Washington and the countries of the region”, he added, while reiterating “the role of the agents and allies of the Zionist regime [ie, Israel] can be seen in some tensions, especially in Iraq”.

The IRGC Navy announced that it had seized Hankuk Chemi, a South Korean-flagged tanker, and detained its crew of twenty because of “environmental and chemical pollution concerns”, for which Iran asked for compensation. The incident occurred in the Strait of Hormuz. The South Korean government called for “the early release of the ship”. A U.S. diplomatic spokesperson maintained that Iran “continues to threaten navigational rights and freedoms in the Persian Gulf as part of a clear attempt to extort the international community into relieving the pressure of sanctions. We join the Republic of Korea’s call for Iran to immediately release the tanker”. An Iranian government spokesperson subsequently argued that “if there is any hostage-taking, it is Korea’s government that is holding $7 billion, which belongs to us, hostage”.

U.S. Acting Secretary of Defense Chris Miller announced that “due to the recent threats issued by Iranian leaders against President Trump and other U.S. government officials... the USS Nimitz will now remain on station in the U.S. Central Command area of operations”. “No one should doubt the resolve of the U.S.”, he added.

The Iraqi military reported that it had dismantled a naval mine found attached to an Iraqi oil tanker.

Iran wrote to the UN Security Council objecting to increased U.S. “military adventurism… in the Persian Gulf and the Oman Sea”. “Coupled with a series of systematic disinformation campaign, unfounded accusations and inflammatory statements and threats… such confrontational measures have further deteriorated the already tense security environment of this highly volatile region”, the letter added. “If unchecked, such warmongering tendencies could escalate the situation to an alarming level, and it is self-evident that the U.S. shall bear the full responsibility for all consequences”. Relatedly, Foreign Minister Javad Zarif claimed that “intelligence from Iraq indicate plot to fabricate pretext for war”, asserting: “Iran doesn’t seek war but will openly and directly defend its people, security and vital interests”. Relatedly, media reports indicated that “the U.S. has seen increasing indications that Iran could be planning an attack against American forces or interests in the Middle East”, with an unnamed U.S. official describing Iran’s intentions as “difficult and at times unpredictable” to assess.

Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani decried “the increase of U.S. army provocation in the region” and said: “These measures have increased entropy of insecurity and leads to harmful misunderstandings”. Relatedly, Iran’s diplomatic spokesperson indicated that Tehran “sent a message to the