icon caret Arrow Down Arrow Left Arrow Right Arrow Up Line Camera icon set icon set Ellipsis icon set Facebook Favorite Globe Hamburger List Mail Map Marker Map Microphone Minus PDF Play Print RSS Search Share Trash Crisiswatch Alerts and Trends Box - 1080/761 Copy Twitter Video Camera  copyview Whatsapp Youtube
Flashpoint / Global

Iraq

I. Why it Matters

Iraq has been an arena for U.S.-Iran competition – and even indirect cooperation at times – since the 2003 U.S. invasion. The country’s adjacency and Iran’s support of paramilitary groups provides Tehran with particular advantages relative to other theatres, and Iraq has emerged as a key flashpoint for U.S.-Iran tensions during the “maximum pressure” era. These manifest directly, as witnessed in the January 2020 killing of Qassem Soleimani and retaliatory Iranian strikes on Iraq bases hosting U.S. forces, and indirectly through attacks by Iran-backed militias on U.S. and allied interests. To maintain the tenuous stability Iraq has achieved in the immediate post-ISIS era, Iraqi leadership tries to strike balance between Baghdad’s two key allies.

II. Recent Developments

  • 4 June 2021
    View More
  • 27 May 2021
    View More
  • 24 May 2021
    View More
  • 20 May 2021
    View More
  • 17 May 2021
    View More
  • 10 May 2021
    View More
  • 8 May 2021
    View More
  • 5 May 2021
    View More
  • 4 May 2021
    View More
  • 3 May 2021
    View More
  • 2 May 2021
    View More
  • 29 April 2021
    View More
  • 27 April 2021
    View More
  • 26 April 2021
    View More
  • 23 April 2021
    View More
  • 22 April 2021
    View More
  • 22 April 2021
    View More
  • 20 April 2021
    View More
  • 19 April 2021
    View More
  • 18 April 2021
    View More
  • 16 April 2021
    View More
  • 14 April 2021
    View More
  • 14 April 2021
    View More
  • 13 April 2021
    View More
  • 12 April 2021
    View More
  • 7 April 2021
    View More
  • 4 April 2021
    View More
  • 31 March 2021
    View More
  • 31 March 2021
    View More
  • 30 March 2021
    View More
  • 29 March 2021
    View More
  • 29 March 2021
    View More
  • 23 March 2021
    View More
  • 18 March 2021
    View More
  • 17 March 2021
    View More
  • 15 March 2021
    View More
  • 14 March 2021
    View More
  • 10 March 2021
    View More
  • 6 March 2021
    View More
  • 3 March 2021
    View More
  • 1 March 2021
    View More
  • 27 February 2021
    View More
  • 25 February 2021
    View More
  • 23 February 2021
    View More
  • 22 February 2021
    View More
  • 21 February 2021
    View More
  • 18 February 2021
    View More
  • 15 February 2021
    View More
  • 15 February 2021
    View More
  • 10 February 2021
    View More
  • 9 February 2021
    View More
  • 3 February 2021
    View More
  • 23 January 2021
    View More
  • 22 January 2021
    View More
  • 22 January 2021
    View More
  • 15 January 2021
    View More
  • 13 January 2021
    View More
  • 8 January 2021
    View More
  • 6 January 2021
    View More
  • 4 January 2021
    View More
  • 4 January 2021
    View More
  • 2 January 2021
    View More
  • 2 January 2021
    View More
  • 31 December 2020
    View More
  • 31 December 2020
    View More
  • 29 December 2020
    View More
  • 27 December 2020
    View More
  • 27 December 2020
    View More
  • 25 December 2020
    View More
  • 23 December 2020
    View More
  • 23 December 2020
    View More
  • 23 December 2020
    View More
  • 22 December 2020
    View More
  • 21 December 2020
    View More
  • 20 December 2020
    View More
  • 16 December 2020
    View More
  • 10 December 2020
    View More
  • 10 December 2020
    View More
  • 10 December 2020
    View More
  • 5 December 2020
    View More
  • 4 December 2020
    View More
  • 2 December 2020
    View More
  • 30 November 2020
    View More
  • 22 November 2020
    View More
  • 20 November 2020
    View More
  • 19 November 2020
    View More
  • 17 November 2020
    View More
  • 17 November 2020
    View More
  • 14 November 2020
    View More
  • 13 November 2020
    View More
  • 5 November 2020
    View More
  • 22 October 2020
    View More
  • 21 October 2020
    View More
  • 20 October 2020
    View More
  • 19 October 2020
    View More
  • 12 October 2020
    View More
  • 11 October 2020
    View More
  • 10 October 2020
    View More
  • 5 October 2020
    View More
  • 2 October 2020
    View More
  • 1 October 2020
    View More
  • 1 October 2020
    View More
  • 30 September 2020
    View More
  • 30 September 2020
    View More
  • 29 September 2020
    View More
  • 28 September 2020
    View More
  • 28 September 2020
    View More
  • 28 September 2020
    View More
  • 27 September 2020
    View More
  • 26 September 2020
    View More
  • 24 September 2020
    View More
  • 23 September 2020
    View More
  • 22 September 2020
    View More
  • 18 September 2020
    View More
  • 16 September 2020
    View More
  • 15 September 2020
    View More
  • 14 September 2020
    View More
  • 12 September 2020
    View More
  • 10 September 2020
    View More
  • 9 September 2020
    View More
  • 9 September 2020
    View More
  • 8 September 2020
    View More
  • 6 September 2020
    View More
  • 2 September 2020
    View More
  • 2 September 2020
    View More
  • 2 September 2020
    View More
  • 29 August 2020
    View More
  • 27 August 2020
    View More
  • 26 August 2020
    View More
  • 23 August 2020
    View More
  • 23 August 2020
    View More
  • 21 August 2020
    View More
  • 20 August 2020
    View More
  • 20 August 2020
    View More
  • 19 August 2020
    View More
  • 18 August 2020
    View More
  • 16 August 2020
    View More
  • 16 August 2020
    View More
  • 15 August 2020
    View More
  • 14 August 2020
    View More
  • 13 August 2020
    View More
  • 12 August 2020
    View More
  • 11 August 2020
    View More
  • 5 August 2020
    View More
  • 4 August 2020
    View More
  • 4 August 2020
    View More
  • 30 July 2020
    View More
  • 29 July 2020
    View More
  • 27 July 2020
    View More
  • 25 July 2020
    View More
  • 24 July 2020
    View More
  • 20 July 2020
    View More
  • 19 July 2020
    View More
  • 19 July 2020
    View More
  • 16 July 2020
    View More
  • 15 July 2020
    View More
  • 14 July 2020
    View More
  • 8 July 2020
    View More
  • 7 July 2020
    View More
  • 7 July 2020
    View More
  • 7 July 2020
    View More
  • 4 July 2020
    View More
  • 1 July 2020
    View More
  • 28 June 2020
    View More
  • 28 June 2020
    View More
  • 26 June 2020
    View More
  • 22 June 2020
    View More
  • 18 June 2020
    View More
  • 18 June 2020
    View More
  • 17 June 2020
    View More
  • 17 June 2020
    View More
  • 15 June 2020
    View More
  • 15 June 2020
    View More
  • 13 June 2020
    View More
  • 11 June 2020
    View More
  • 10 June 2020
    View More
  • 8 June 2020
    View More
  • 5 June 2020
    View More
  • 4 June 2020
    View More
  • 3 June 2020
    View More
  • 29 May 2020
    View More
  • 22 May 2020
    View More
  • 22 May 2020
    View More
  • 21 May 2020
    View More
  • 20 May 2020
    View More
  • 18 May 2020
    View More
  • 18 May 2020
    View More
  • 17 May 2020
    View More
  • 16 May 2020
    View More
  • 16 May 2020
    View More
  • 13 May 2020
    View More
  • 13 May 2020
    View More
  • 10 May 2020
    View More
  • 9 May 2020
    View More
  • 6 May 2020
    View More
  • 6 May 2020
    View More
  • 1 May 2020
    View More
  • 29 April 2020
    View More
  • 26 April 2020
    View More
  • 16 April 2020
    View More
  • 13 April 2020
    View More
  • 10 April 2020
    View More
  • 10 April 2020
    View More
  • 9 April 2020
    View More
  • 9 April 2020
    View More
  • 9 April 2020
    View More
  • 7 April 2020
    View More
  • 7 April 2020
    View More
  • 6 April 2020
    View More
  • 4 April 2020
    View More
  • 2 April 2020
    View More
  • 2 April 2020
    View More
  • 1 April 2020
    View More
  • 1 April 2020
    View More
  • 1 April 2020
    View More
  • 31 March 2020
    View More
  • 29 March 2020
    View More
  • 29 March 2020
    View More
  • 26 March 2020
    View More
  • 26 March 2020
    View More
  • 26 March 2020
    View More
  • 23 March 2020
    View More
  • 20 March 2020
    View More
  • 17 March 2020
    View More
  • 17 March 2020
    View More
  • 17 March 2020
    View More
  • 16 March 2020
    View More
  • 15 March 2020
    View More
  • 14 March 2020
    View More
  • 13 March 2020
    View More
  • 12 March 2020
    View More
  • 11 March 2020
    View More
  • 11 March 2020
    View More
  • 10 March 2020
    View More
  • 10 March 2020
    View More
  • 9 March 2020
    View More
  • 8 March 2020
    View More
  • 5 March 2020
    View More
  • 1 March 2020
    View More
  • 1 March 2020
    View More
  • 26 February 2020
    View More
  • 25 February 2020
    View More
  • 24 February 2020
    View More
  • 19 February 2020
    View More
  • 16 February 2020
    View More
  • 16 February 2020
    View More
  • 16 February 2020
    View More
  • 13 February 2020
    View More
  • 13 February 2020
    View More
  • 12 February 2020
    View More
  • 11 February 2020
    View More
  • 10 February 2020
    View More
  • 6 February 2020
    View More
  • 5 February 2020
    View More
  • 5 February 2020
    View More
  • 4 February 2020
    View More
  • 4 February 2020
    View More
  • 1 February 2020
    View More
  • 30 January 2020
    View More
  • 29 January 2020
    View More
  • 27 January 2020
    View More
  • 26 January 2020
    View More
  • 23 January 2020
    View More
  • 22 January 2020
    View More
  • 20 January 2020
    View More
  • 19 January 2020
    View More
  • 17 January 2020
    View More
  • 14 January 2020
    View More
  • 12 January 2020
    View More
  • 10 January 2020
    View More
  • 9 January 2020
    View More
  • 8 January 2020
    View More
  • 8 January 2020
    View More
  • 5 January 2020
    View More
  • 5 January 2020
    View More
  • 5 January 2020
    View More
  • 5 January 2020
    View More
  • 4 January 2020
    View More
  • 4 January 2020
    View More
  • 3 January 2020
    View More
  • 3 January 2020
    View More
  • 3 January 2020
    View More
  • 3 January 2020
    View More
  • 2 January 2020
    View More
  • 2 January 2020
    View More
  • 1 January 2020
    View More
  • 1 January 2020
    View More
  • 31 December 2019
    View More
  • 31 December 2019
    View More
  • 30 December 2019
    View More
  • 30 December 2019
    View More
  • 30 December 2019
    View More
  • 30 December 2019
    View More
  • 30 December 2019
    View More
  • 30 December 2019
    View More
  • 29 December 2019
    View More
  • 29 December 2019
    View More
  • 28 December 2019
    View More
  • 25 December 2019
    View More
  • 19 December 2019
    View More
  • 18 December 2019
    View More
  • 16 December 2019
    View More
  • 15 December 2019
    View More
  • 13 December 2019
    View More
  • 11 December 2019
    View More
  • 11 December 2019
    View More
  • 9 December 2019
    View More
  • 8 December 2019
    View More
  • 8 December 2019
    View More
  • 7 December 2019
    View More
  • 6 December 2019
    View More
  • 6 December 2019
    View More
  • 6 December 2019
    View More
  • 4 December 2019
    View More
  • 4 December 2019
    View More
  • 4 December 2019
    View More
  • 4 December 2019
    View More
  • 4 December 2019
    View More
  • 3 December 2019
    View More
  • 2 December 2019
    View More
  • 2 December 2019
    View More
  • 2 December 2019
    View More
  • 1 December 2019
    View More
  • 29 November 2019
    View More
  • 29 November 2019
    View More
  • 29 November 2019
    View More
  • 27 November 2019
    View More
  • 27 November 2019
    View More
  • 27 November 2019
    View More
  • 26 November 2019
    View More
  • 26 November 2019
    View More
  • 24 November 2019
    View More
  • 23 November 2019
    View More
  • 21 November 2019
    View More
  • 18 November 2019
    View More
  • 17 November 2019
    View More
  • 14 November 2019
    View More
  • 11 November 2019
    View More
  • 11 November 2019
    View More
  • 10 November 2019
    View More
  • 8 November 2019
    View More
  • 8 November 2019
    View More
  • 7 November 2019
    View More
  • 7 November 2019
    View More
  • 6 November 2019
    View More
  • 5 November 2019
    View More
  • 4 November 2019
    View More
  • 3 November 2019
    View More
  • 2 November 2019
    View More
  • 1 November 2019
    View More
  • 1 November 2019
    View More
  • 1 November 2019
    View More
  • 31 October 2019
    View More
  • 30 October 2019
    View More
  • 29 October 2019
    View More
  • 28 October 2019
    View More
  • 28 October 2019
    View More
  • 23 October 2019
    View More
  • 20 October 2019
    View More
  • 17 October 2019
    View More
  • 15 October 2019
    View More
  • 14 October 2019
    View More
  • 9 October 2019
    View More
  • 9 October 2019
    View More
  • 7 October 2019
    View More
  • 6 October 2019
    View More
  • 4 October 2019
    View More
  • 3 October 2019
    View More
  • 3 October 2019
    View More
  • 30 September 2019
    View More
  • 30 September 2019
    View More
  • 30 September 2019
    View More
  • 23 September 2019
    View More
  • 23 September 2019
    View More
  • 22 September 2019
    View More
  • 18 September 2019
    View More
  • 16 September 2019
    View More
  • 15 September 2019
    View More
  • 15 September 2019
    View More
  • 10 September 2019
    View More
  • 9 September 2019
    View More
  • 31 August 2019
    View More
  • 30 August 2019
    View More
  • 29 August 2019
    View More
  • 27 August 2019
    View More
  • 26 August 2019
    View More
  • 26 August 2019
    View More
  • 26 August 2019
    View More
  • 25 August 2019
    View More
  • 23 August 2019
    View More
  • 23 August 2019
    View More
  • 21 August 2019
    View More
  • 20 August 2019
    View More
  • 19 August 2019
    View More
  • 18 August 2019
    View More
  • 15 August 2019
    View More
  • 30 July 2019
    View More
  • 19 July 2019
    View More
  • 18 July 2019
    View More
  • 12 July 2019
    View More
  • 1 July 2019
    View More
  • 1 July 2019
    View More
  • 1 July 2019
    View More
  • 26 June 2019
    View More
  • 25 June 2019
    View More
  • 21 June 2019
    View More
  • 19 June 2019
    View More
  • 18 June 2019
    View More
  • 17 June 2019
    View More
  • 15 June 2019
    View More
  • 15 June 2019
    View More
  • 12 June 2019
    View More
  • 6 June 2019
    View More
  • 2 June 2019
    View More
  • 31 May 2019
    View More
  • 30 May 2019
    View More
  • 29 May 2019
    View More
  • 26 May 2019
    View More
  • 25 May 2019
    View More
  • 22 May 2019
    View More
  • 21 May 2019
    View More
  • 20 May 2019
    View More
  • 19 May 2019
    View More
  • 18 May 2019
    View More
  • 18 May 2019
    View More
  • 18 May 2019
    View More
  • 16 May 2019
    View More
  • 16 May 2019
    View More
  • 15 May 2019
    View More
  • 14 May 2019
    View More
  • 14 May 2019
    View More
  • 11 May 2019
    View More
  • 11 May 2019
    View More
  • 9 May 2019
    View More
  • 7 May 2019
    View More
  • 7 May 2019
    View More
  • 6 May 2019
    View More
  • 3 May 2019
    View More
  • 3 May 2019
    View More
  • 2 May 2019
    View More
  • 27 April 2019
    View More
  • 27 April 2019
    View More
  • 27 April 2019
    View More
  • 23 April 2019
    View More
  • 22 April 2019
    View More
  • 22 April 2019
    View More
  • 17 April 2019
    View More
  • 13 April 2019
    View More
  • 11 April 2019
    View More
  • 9 April 2019
    View More
  • 6 April 2019
    View More
  • 4 April 2019
    View More
  • 4 April 2019
    View More
  • 2 April 2019
    View More
  • 2 April 2019
    View More
  • 2 April 2019
    View More
  • 26 March 2019
    View More
  • 26 March 2019
    View More
  • 26 March 2019
    View More
  • 23 March 2019
    View More
  • 21 March 2019
    View More
  • 19 March 2019
    View More
  • 18 March 2019
    View More
  • 18 March 2019
    View More
  • 14 March 2019
    View More
  • 14 March 2019
    View More
  • 13 March 2019
    View More
  • 12 March 2019
    View More
  • 12 March 2019
    View More
  • 11 March 2019
    View More
  • 11 March 2019
    View More
  • 11 March 2019
    View More
  • 10 March 2019
    View More
  • 7 March 2019
    View More
  • 6 March 2019
    View More
  • 6 March 2019
    View More
  • 6 March 2019
    View More
  • 5 March 2019
    View More
  • 5 March 2019
    View More
  • 28 February 2019
    View More
  • 27 February 2019
    View More
  • 27 February 2019
    View More
  • 21 February 2019
    View More
  • 19 February 2019
    View More
  • 15 February 2019
    View More
  • 13 February 2019
    View More
  • 6 February 2019
    View More
  • 5 February 2019
    View More
  • 5 February 2019
    View More
  • 4 February 2019
    View More
  • 4 February 2019
    View More
  • 4 February 2019
    View More
  • 3 February 2019
    View More
  • 3 February 2019
    View More
  • 29 January 2019
    View More
  • 18 January 2019
    View More
  • 17 January 2019
    View More
  • 14 January 2019
    View More
  • 13 January 2019
    View More
  • 10 January 2019
    View More
  • 10 January 2019
    View More
  • 9 January 2019
    View More
  • 3 January 2019
    View More
  • 31 December 2018
    View More
  • 31 December 2018
    View More
  • 30 December 2018
    View More
  • 27 December 2018
    View More
  • 26 December 2018
    View More
  • 25 December 2018
    View More
  • 22 December 2018
    View More
  • 19 December 2018
    View More
  • 12 December 2018
    View More
  • 11 December 2018
    View More
  • 11 December 2018
    View More
  • 11 December 2018
    View More
  • 8 December 2018
    View More
  • 29 November 2018
    View More
  • 24 November 2018
    View More
  • 20 November 2018
    View More
  • 19 November 2018
    View More
  • 17 November 2018
    View More
  • 15 November 2018
    View More
  • 13 November 2018
    View More
  • 8 November 2018
    View More
  • 7 November 2018
    View More
  • 7 November 2018
    View More
  • 5 November 2018
    View More
  • 3 November 2018
    View More
  • 24 October 2018
    View More
  • 23 October 2018
    View More
  • 17 October 2018
    View More
  • 16 October 2018
    View More
  • 16 October 2018
    View More
  • 10 October 2018
    View More
  • 7 October 2018
    View More
  • 4 October 2018
    View More
  • 3 October 2018
    View More
  • 3 October 2018
    View More
  • 29 September 2018
    View More
  • 28 September 2018
    View More
  • 28 September 2018
    View More
  • 27 September 2018
    View More
  • 25 September 2018
    View More
  • 21 September 2018
    View More
  • 21 September 2018
    View More
  • 20 September 2018
    View More
  • 20 September 2018
    View More
  • 19 September 2018
    View More
  • 18 September 2018
    View More
  • 15 September 2018
    View More
  • 14 September 2018
    View More
  • 12 September 2018
    View More
  • 12 September 2018
    View More
  • 11 September 2018
    View More
  • 11 September 2018
    View More
  • 8 September 2018
    View More
  • 7 September 2018
    View More
  • 4 September 2018
    View More
  • 3 September 2018
    View More
  • 3 September 2018
    View More
  • 2 September 2018
    View More
  • 1 September 2018
    View More
  • 1 September 2018
    View More
  • 31 August 2018
    View More
  • 30 August 2018
    View More
  • 28 August 2018
    View More
  • 22 August 2018
    View More
  • 20 August 2018
    View More
  • 16 August 2018
    View More
  • 14 August 2018
    View More
  • 9 August 2018
    View More
  • 7 August 2018
    View More
  • 13 July 2018
    View More
  • 10 July 2018
    View More
  • 1 July 2018
    View More
  • 24 June 2018
    View More
  • 23 June 2018
    View More
  • 21 June 2018
    View More
  • 18 June 2018
    View More
  • 18 June 2018
    View More
  • 17 June 2018
    View More
  • 12 June 2018
    View More
  • 12 June 2018
    View More
  • 7 June 2018
    View More
  • 6 June 2018
    View More
  • 24 May 2018
    View More
  • 21 May 2018
    View More
  • 20 May 2018
    View More
  • 12 May 2018
    View More
  • 6 May 2018
    View More
  • 19 April 2018
    View More
  • 29 March 2018
    View More
  • 28 March 2018
    View More
  • 8 March 2018
    View More
  • 1 March 2018
    View More
  • 25 February 2018
    View More
  • 19 February 2018
    View More
  • 14 February 2018
    View More
  • 21 January 2018
    View More
  • 9 December 2017
    View More
  • 25 November 2017
    View More
  • 22 November 2017
    View More
  • 14 November 2017
    View More
  • 3 November 2017
    View More
  • 26 October 2017
    View More
  • 24 October 2017
    View More
  • 21 October 2017
    View More
  • 25 September 2017
    View More
  • 10 July 2017
    View More
  • 16-17 October 2017
    View More
Members of Iraq's pro-Iranian al-Hashd al-Shaabi group and protesters set ablaze a sentry box outside the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad on 31 December 2019. AHmad al-Rubaye/Agence France Presse

III. Background

Since the U.S. mounted its invasion to topple Saddam Hussein in 2003, Iraq has endured years of insurgency and civil war. Although the U.S. government has sought to back successive Iraqi governments with financial and military aid, its relationship with Baghdad is complicated, in large part because it competes with Iran, Iraq’s neighbour and Washington’s chief regional adversary, for the role of Baghdad’s main outside patron. Tehran’s priority in Iraq has been to prevent a successor to the Saddam Hussein regime that could once again come to pose a military threat, especially after the trauma of Iraq’s 1980 invasion and subsequent eight-year war. Iran is intent on preserving Iraq’s territorial integrity, encouraging Shiite-Islamist-led rule and inserting itself into Iraq’s security forces to prevent the re-emergence of a hostile Iraq and counter any threat from a possible escalation with the U.S. It also wants a government it can control, and it arms, trains and finances allied Shiite militias as a hedge against the re-emergence of a strong government.

While there have been areas where U.S. and Iranian interests converged, the U.S., its Arab allies and friends in the Iraqi government have accused Iran of exercising “malign” influence in Iraq. Washington also blames Iranian proxies for hundreds of U.S. combat deaths during the U.S. occupation (2003-2011), including those killed by roadside bombs provided by Iran. In turn, Iran accuses Gulf states of supporting Iraqi insurgents, funding opposition groups ahead of elections in 2009 and 2010, and encouraging Sunni protest movements in 2013-2014.

In July 2014, ISIS routed the Iraqi army in Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city. In a few weeks, it swept across the country’s north and west, linking up to strongholds in eastern Syria. ISIS’s success underlined the extent of the Iraqi state’s deterioration after decades of war, sanctions and occupation. Because Tehran and Washington each had a stake in Iraq’s survival and therefore an interest in preventing the security situation from worsening, they ended up in de facto cooperation – indirectly through the Iraqi military – in the fight against ISIS. Yet now, as the counter-ISIS campaign is coming to an end, U.S.-Iranian cooperation in Iraq could again turn to confrontation, with the role of Iran-backed Shiite militias a key area of divergence.

For successive post-Saddam governments, this competition between Iran and the U.S. has been debilitating. A large array of Iraqis resent and contest Iran’s outsized role, and complain that Iran-backed militias are morphing into a multifunctional and corrupt para-state. Over the last four years, the U.S.-Iranian standoff has helped confound efforts by the government and its partners to stabilise the country after a brutal war with the Islamic State (ISIS) from 2013-2017, and to confront the daunting economic challenges created by low oil prices and rampant corruption. On several occasions, notably following the U.S. strike that killed top Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in January 2020, the confrontation has threatened to turn Iraq into a major battleground in a proxy war.

The view from Washington is that Iran’s influence in Iraq must be curtailed, but with minimal U.S. investment. Under the “maximum pressure” policy Iraq became a key theatre for U.S.-Iran confrontation, and the Trump administration was frustrated at the Iraqi government’s inability to prevent Iran-aligned groups embedded in the Hashd from attacking U.S. forces (conversely, the government of former Prime Minister Abdul-Mahdi and most Shiite parties accused the U.S. of breaching its sovereignty by killing Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the Iraqi head of the Iran-backed paramilitary groups). Yet while the withdrawal of U.S. forces from several bases in the fight against ISIS has cut the number of targets for Washington’s enemies, attacks against U.S. and allied facilities continue under the Biden administration.

The view from Tehran is that Iraq is Iran’s most important security concern outside of its borders, and its strategic depth. As such, it seeks to keep Iraq in a tight embrace through security cooperation, economic links, political influence as well as via Shiite militias, and prevent Baghdad from growing closer to Washington. Iran may prefer a weak and dependable government in Baghdad, but it has no interest in Iraq descending into chaos. Iraq’s stability is key for Tehran to continue trading with its neighbour, a lifeline in the face of U.S. economic sanctions. Tehran has invested in forging relations with all Iraqi political forces represented in parliament, and strategically resorts to these allies to exert pressure on the U.S. in order to remove or reduce the influence of U.S. troops in Iraq.

Iraqi Prime Minister al-Kadhimi meets with Iranian President Rouhani, 21 July 2020 president.ir

IV. Analysis

A U.S.-Iran Battleground: Iraq emerged as a central theatre for Iran’s response to the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign. Claimed and unclaimed rocket attacks against U.S. interests and Washington’s occasional military response picked up in 2019. Iranian-U.S. skirmishes culminated in the killing of Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s IRGC Quds Force, along with the chief of staff of the paramilitary al-Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilisation) Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis at Baghdad airport in January 2020; Tehran responded with missile strikes on bases housing U.S. forces. Iran’s leadership has said the attack was only an initial “slap in the face” and that it will take further action to force a U.S. exit from the region; too, the Iraqi Shiite militias warned that they remain determined to avenge Muhandis’ killing. After the deaths of Soleimani and Muhandis, Iraq’s parliament passed a non-binding resolution urging the government to expel coalition forces from the country, and bilateral discussions on the presence of U.S. forces remain ongoing between Baghdad and the Biden administration. Occasional targeting of U.S. and allies facilities, in some cases met with a U.S. military response, underscore the ongoing simmer even as tensions have declined since early 2020.

A Pragmatic Prime Minister: In the aftermath of weeks-long mass protests in Iraq, Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi resigned in late November 2019 and as a result, the country remained without a functioning government for five months. Forming a new government required two things: 1) an elaborate balancing exercise between and within the two major blocs (Islah and Binaa) to sift through the pile of suitable candidates for a new cabinet; 2) green light from Iraq’s two rival external partners, Iran and the U.S. In May 2020, after two earlier failed attempts, Mustafa al-Kadhimi, former intelligence chief, was able to clear these bars.

Grey Zone Vs Green Zone: The war against ISIS saw the re-emergence and proliferation of Iraqi paramilitary groups that simultaneously cooperated and competed with the Iraqi state in their political and ideological vision for the post-conflict era. The strongest of these autonomous armed groups are the Popular Mobilisation Units (or Forces, the Hashd al-Shaabi), an umbrella organisation of some 50 paramilitary outfits with 45,000-142,000 fighters between them; they can be divided broadly into three groups depending on their Shiite “source of emulation”: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Najaf-based Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani and the populist cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. The most powerful groups in the Hashd – indeed, the de facto leadership – are those more closely affiliated with Ayatollah Khamenei. These units have strong relations with Iran and its security apparatus, especially the Qods force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and resist integration into the Iraqi state apparatus to protect their separate identity and resources and in some cases also to prevent moves by the government that would harm Iran’s interests. Hashd leaders formed an electoral bloc, the Fatah Alliance, which placed second in the May 2018 parliamentary elections, but their participation in politics remains controversial in Iraq, where many see them as Iranian proxies. Yet the Hashd enjoy a certain popularity and credibility owing to the sacrifices they made in the fight against ISIS. Under the Trump administration, the U.S. urged Iran to “permit the disarming, mobilisation and reintegration of Shiite militias” as one of its key demands. At a time of intensifying U.S.-Iran tensions, Tehran is presenting Washington with a dilemma: by maintaining its role in the political and security institutions of the U.S.-backed Iraqi state, it is complicating U.S. efforts to counter Iran’s influence through those same institutions.  

Protests: Iraq witnessed massive popular protests In 2019 calling for profound institutional reform, chiefly an end to corruption, galvanising repeated spasms of protest in the past. Street protests introduce an element of uncertainty that worries Tehran. This may explain why its affiliated paramilitaries have taken repressive steps to contain this risk and reportedly participated in the crackdown. The fact that some protesters may be motivated by anti-Iranian animus – several have chanted anti-Iranian slogans – is of further concern to Tehran, whose influence in Iraq could be at stake. Many Iraqi Shiites look at the paramilitaries, the Shiite political parties and Iran as complicit in the country’s governance failure and corruption.

The Kurdish Question: The U.S. and Iran have had converging interests in preventing Iraqi Kurdistan’s breakaway. But they have different allies within the KRG, and the U.S. does not want Iranian influence to increase with the empowerment of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and decline of its own longstanding ally, the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Masoud Barzani. Iran’s main objective is thwarting a Kurdish move toward independence by keeping the Kurdish polity divided. Tehran seeks to push back U.S. influence, although in the long term it seems less concerned about a U.S. it considers a fickle passer-by in the region than about the strong aspiration of Kurds who are an integral part of it.

Iranian pilgrims participate in Arbaeen mourning ceremony in Karbala, Iraq, 10 November 2017 TASNIM

V. Scenarios and Recommendations

Mitigating the Risks: One priority for the Biden administration’s Iraq policy should be to defuse the persistent state of near conflict between U.S. forces and Iraqi paramilitary groups that assembled to fight ISIS in 2014. These groups, some of which are Iran-backed and some not, continue to control parts of the country. Particularly if the White House follows through with plans to revive the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, and U.S.-Iranian tensions subside, it could allow the Kadhimi government to focus on Iraq’s internal problems, to the benefit of all concerned. The U.S. government could also advance this objective by avoiding direct confrontation with these groups and their agendas as it helps the Iraqi government rehabilitate governing institutions, tackle corruption and diversify the oil-reliant economy. Washington should instead quietly encourage the government’s efforts to incorporate elements of them into the security forces, citing the views of respected religious leaders such as Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, who has been warning of the dangers of what he decries as “militias” since 2003.

Eyes on the Election: In general, elections have been a bright spot for Iraqi governance; they have been held more or less regularly and they enjoy a large degree of credibility. If the public deems the forthcoming October 2021 elections illegitimate, that perception, combined with a deteriorating economy, could create a combustible mix and spark strife, especially in the south, where socio-economic conditions are particularly dire and paramilitary groups strong. Iran and the U.S. should urge the government to tolerate peaceful mass protests, redouble efforts to ensure that elections can take place on time, and encourage confidence in their integrity by issuing biometric cards to eligible voters by June so that October elections are possible.

Whither the PMUs? Iran views the Hashd al-Shaabi as an insurance policy against the return of a strong, antagonistic Iraqi state on its border, supported by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, or controlled by an enemy such as ISIS. Yet for the Iraq to build a functioning state, one that has a monopoly over the use of force, it will need to fully integrate these groups into the state apparatus. It would be a mistake for the government and its external backers to denounce the Hashd as incorrigible Iranian proxies. A better way to curb the paramilitary phenomenon is to render the Hashd redundant by shifting power and capacity, in increments, to formal security institutions. This approach could harness powerful Iraqi political currents that have been pushing back against Iranian influence, including by resisting Iran’s infiltration of the state’s security and intelligence institutions.  

Too Close for Comfort? The U.S. is expected to keep some level of military presence in Iraq for the foreseeable future. Consequently, the strategic contestation between Iran and the U.S. may generate new flashpoints as their common ISIS foe is militarily defeated. For example, U.S. garrisons on the Iraqi-Syrian border operate in close proximity to Iran-backed Iraqi militias. If tensions between Tehran and Washington continue to rise and the nuclear deal’s survival comes into question, a return to the tactics of the 2007-2011 period is possible, when Tehran encouraged and armed its allied militias in Iraq to target U.S. forces with roadside bombs and rockets.