Flashpoint / Global

Iraq

I. Why it Matters

Iraq has been an arena for U.S.-Iran competition – and at times even indirect cooperation – since the 2003 U.S. invasion. The country’s adjacency and Iran’s support of Iraqi paramilitary groups provides Tehran with particular advantages relative to other theatres, and Iraq emerged as a key flashpoint for U.S.-Iran tensions during the “maximum pressure” era. These manifested directly, as witnessed in the January 2020 killing of Qassem Soleimani and retaliatory Iranian strikes on Iraq bases hosting U.S. forces, and indirectly through attacks by Iran-backed paramilitary groups on U.S. and allied interests. To maintain the tenuous stability Iraq has achieved in the post-ISIS era, its leaders try to strike a balance between their two most powerful allies.

II. Recent Developments

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Members of Iraq's pro-Iranian al-Hashd al-Shaabi group and protesters set ablaze a sentry box outside the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad on 31 December 2019. AHmad al-Rubaye/Agence France Presse

III. Background

Since the U.S. mounted its invasion to topple Saddam Hussein in 2003, Iraq has endured years of insurgency and civil war. Although the U.S. government has sought to back successive Iraqi governments with financial and military aid, its relationship with Baghdad is complicated, in large part because it competes with Iran, Iraq’s neighbour and Washington’s chief regional adversary, for the role of Baghdad’s main outside patron. Tehran’s priority in Iraq has been to prevent a successor to the Saddam Hussein regime that could once again come to pose a military threat, especially after the trauma of Iraq’s 1980 invasion and subsequent eight-year war. Iran is intent on preserving Iraq’s territorial integrity, encouraging Shiite-Islamist-led rule and inserting itself into Iraq’s security forces and intelligence agencies to prevent the re-emergence of a hostile Iraq and counter any threat from a possible escalation with the U.S. Because it also wants a government it can control, it arms, trains and finances allied Shiite paramilitary groups under the banner of the al-Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilisation) as a hedge against the re-emergence of a nationalist-minded order.

While there have been areas in which U.S. and Iranian interests converged, the U.S., its Arab allies and friends in the Iraqi government have accused Iran of exercising “malign” influence in Iraq. Washington also blames alleged Iranian proxies for hundreds of U.S. combat deaths during the U.S. occupation (2003-2011), including those killed by explosives provided by Iran. In turn, Iran accuses Gulf states of having supported Iraqi insurgents, funded opposition groups ahead of elections in 2009 and 2010 and encouraged Sunni protests in 2012-2013.

In July 2014, the Islamic State (ISIS) routed the Iraqi army in Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city. In a few weeks, it swept across the country’s north and west, linking up to strongholds in eastern Syria. ISIS’s success underlined the extent of the Iraqi state’s deterioration after decades of war, sanctions and occupation. Because Tehran and Washington each had a stake in Iraq’s survival and therefore an interest in preventing the security situation from worsening, they ended up in de facto cooperation – indirectly through the Iraqi military – in the fight against ISIS. However, since that fight largely ended, with the government declaring victory over ISIS in 2017, such limited U.S.-Iran cooperation has given way to instances of military confrontation.

The U.S.-Iran standoff has been debilitating for successive post-2003 governments. Many Iraqis resent and contest Iran’s outsized role, and complain that Iran-backed paramilitary groups in effect operate under a separate chain of command to the state apparatus, and have acted against perceived opponents with apparent impunity. The standoff has also helped confound efforts by the government and its partners to stabilise the country after the campaign against ISIS and confront the daunting economic challenges created by overreliance on oil income, mismanagement and rampant corruption. On several occasions, notably following the U.S. strike that killed top Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in January 2020, the confrontation has threatened to turn Iraq into a battleground in a proxy war.

The view from Washington is that Iran’s influence in Iraq must be curtailed, but with minimal U.S. investment. Under President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy Iraq was a key theatre for U.S.-Iran confrontation. His administration was frustrated at the Iraqi government’s inability to prevent Iran-aligned groups embedded in the Hashd from attacking U.S. forces (conversely, the government of former Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi and most Shiite parties accused the U.S. of breaching its sovereignty by killing Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the Iraqi head of the Iran-backed paramilitary groups). However, as the withdrawal of U.S. forces from several bases after the fight against ISIS cut the number of targets for Washington’s enemies, the threat of attacks against U.S. and allied facilities has decreased, but continues, under the Biden administration.

The view from Tehran is that Iraq is Iran’s most important security concern outside of its borders, and constitutes strategic depth. For this reason, it seeks to keep Iraq in a tight embrace through security cooperation, economic links, political influence as well as Shiite paramilitary groups it backs, and prevent Baghdad from growing closer to Washington. Yet while Iran may prefer a weak and dependable government in Baghdad, it has no interest in the country descending into chaos, given its dependence on Iraq for trade in the face of in the face of U.S. financial and economic sanctions. Tehran has invested in forging relations with all Iraqi political forces represented in parliament, and counts on these allies to exert pressure on the U.S. in order to remove or at least reduce the influence of U.S. troops remaining in Iraq. 

Iraqi Prime Minister Sudani meets with Iranian President Raisi, November 2022 president.ir

IV. Analysis

A U.S.-Iran Battleground: Iraq emerged as a central theatre for Iran’s response to the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign. Claimed and unclaimed rocket attacks against U.S. interests and Washington’s occasional military response picked up in 2019. Iranian-U.S. skirmishes culminated in the killing of Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) Quds Force, along with the chief of staff of the Hashd Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis at Baghdad airport in January 2020; Tehran responded with missile strikes on bases housing U.S. forces. Iran’s leadership said the attack was only an initial “slap in the face” and that it would take further action to force a U.S. exit from the region; likewise, the Hashd warned that they remain determined to avenge Muhandis’ killing. After the deaths of Soleimani and Muhandis, Iraq’s parliament passed a non-binding resolution urging the government to expel coalition forces from the country, and bilateral discussions on the presence of U.S. forces remain ongoing between Baghdad and the Biden administration. Occasional targeting of U.S. and allies facilities, in some cases met with a U.S. military response, underscore the ongoing simmer, with a senior U.S. commander in March 2023 tallying 78 attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria since 2021 by what he referred to as Iran-backed groups.

Grey Zone vs Green Zone: The war against ISIS saw the re-emergence and proliferation of Iraqi paramilitary groups that simultaneously cooperated and competed with the Iraqi state in their political and ideological vision for the post-conflict era. The strongest of these autonomous armed groups are the Hashd, an umbrella organisation of some 50 paramilitary outfits with 45,000-142,000 fighters; they can be divided broadly into three groups depending on their Shiite “source of emulation”: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Najaf-based Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani and the populist cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. The most powerful groups in the Hashd – indeed, the de facto leadership – are those more closely affiliated with Ayatollah Khamenei. These units have strong relations with Iran and its security apparatus, especially the Qods force, and resist integration into the Iraqi state apparatus to protect their separate identity and resources, and in some cases also to prevent moves by the government that would harm Iran’s interests. In the 2018 elections, Hashd leaders formed an electoral bloc, the Fatah Alliance, but their participation in politics remains controversial in Iraq, where many see them as Iranian proxies. Yet the Hashd enjoy a certain popularity and credibility owing to the sacrifices they made in the fight against ISIS. Its role in the political and security institutions of the U.S.-backed Iraqi state complicates U.S. efforts to counter Iran’s influence through those same institutions.  

Protests: Iraq witnessed massive popular protests in 2019, known as the Tishreen uprising, in which protesters called for profound institutional reform, chiefly an end to corruption and the ethno-sectarian power-sharing system in place since 2004, which allocates power and resources among Iraq’s Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds – issues that had galvanised people repeatedly in previous years. Perhaps because mass protests introduce an element of uncertainty that worries Tehran, its affiliated paramilitaries resorted to violence to suppress them. The fact that some protesters may have been motivated by an anti-Iranian animus – several chanted anti-Iranian slogans – was of further concern to Tehran, which felt that its influence in Iraq was at stake. Many Iraqi Shiites look at the paramilitaries, the Shiite political parties and Iran as complicit in the country’s governance failures and rampant corruption. In October 2021, the government held general elections six months early in response to anger on the street. Yet only less than half the electorate turned out to vote, showing a deep distrust in elections’ ability to change politics and raising doubt that the current order can generate the legitimacy it so desperately needs. 

A Tenuous Political Equilibrium: Following a twelve month-stalemate, mainly caused by tensions among the Shiite parties, the Council of Representatives on 27 October 2022 approved the cabinet of a new prime minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. But the country is hardly stable. Friction between Muqtada al-Sadr, the Shiite cleric and firebrand populist politician who won the elections, and his Shiite counterparts (including pro-Iran Hashd factions) could flare again, although Sadr has vacated the political scene for now. Challenges to the ethno-sectarian system also persist. The return of politics as usual with the advent of the Sudani government, primarily backed by pro-Iran Shiite groups, represents the system’s temporary triumph over the protests. Yet the gap between citizens and elites has only widened since 2019, as public-service provision remains deeply inadequate. In the short term, the Sudani government may try to keep grievances in check through higher spending for services and public-sector expansion, but it can do so only as long as oil prices remain high. Meanwhile, Iraq’s population is growing and its water supply dwindling. In the long run, if governance and public service delivery do not improve, the combination of demographic pressures and climate-related stresses will undermine any attempt at buying stability with oil revenue. 

The Kurdish Question: The U.S. and Iran have had converging interests in preventing Iraqi Kurdistan’s breakaway. But while the U.S. seeks to support a strong Kurdish region inside Iraq with the main two parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), united, Iran’s main objective is thwarting a Kurdish move toward independence by keeping the Kurdish polity divided. Tehran seeks to push back U.S. influence, although in the long term it seems less concerned about a U.S. it considers a fickle passer-by in the region than about the strong aspiration of Kurds who are an integral part of it. Iran is also worried about the presence of Iranian Kurdish anti-regime groups based in Iraqi Kurdistan, as well as purported Israeli influence in the area. It has attacked what it claims are Israeli bases in the region allegedly used as staging grounds for operations inside Iran, and Iranian Kurdish separatists it alleges are collaborating with Israel to provoke domestic unrest.

Iranian pilgrims participate in Arbaeen mourning ceremony in Karbala, Iraq, 10 November 2017 TASNIM

V. Scenarios and Recommendations

 Whither the Hashd? Iran views the al-Hashd al-Shaabi as an insurance policy against the return of a strong, antagonistic Iraqi state on its border, supported by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, or controlled by an enemy such as ISIS. Yet for Iraq to build a functioning state, one that has a monopoly over the use of force, it will need to fully integrate these groups into the state apparatus. The Hashd institution formally falls under the prime minister’s supervision in his capacity as commander-in-chief, but he exercises minimal oversight of its operational and financial management. The groups constituting the Hashd, which has a budget almost as large as those of the interior and defence ministries, have repeatedly rejected any notion of strengthening the premier’s prerogatives as a threat to their existence. Yet with U.S.-Iran tensions in Iraq having subsided somewhat, there may be a new opportunity to tackle the Hashd institution’s reform now that several of these groups are looking to improve their international standing and back a government that also is seeking broad international acceptance.

Too Close for Comfort? The U.S. is expected to keep some level of military presence in Iraq for the foreseeable future. Consequently, Iraq remains a theatre for U.S.-Iran contestation. For example, U.S. garrisons on the Iraqi-Syrian border operate in close proximity to Iran-backed Iraqi paramilitary groups. If tensions between Iran and the U.S./Israel continue to rise, Tehran could encourage its allied militias in Iraq to step up attacks against U.S. forces, their Iraqi allies and Western diplomatic assets.

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