Flashpoint / Global 9 May 2019 Lebanon Share Facebook Twitter Email Print Back To Map I. Why it Matters Lebanon has remained stable despite the bloody civil war in Syria that sent millions of refugees into the small multi-ethnic, multi-sectarian fragile country. More broadly, it has been spared, so far, from the regional impact of the cold war between Iran and Saudi Arabia and between Iran and Israel. But tensions are rising, and Lebanon could become a new battleground for regional rivalries. II. Recent Developments 9 May 2019 Hizbollah parliamentarians characterised U.S. sanctions against Iran as "unjustified" and reflective of a "tyrannical and dictatorial trend" in Washington. View More 2 May 2019 Hizbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah maintained that "despite our points of weakness, the resistance's readiness has not been affected despite the harsh sanctions imposed against us". He also pledged that "all Israeli brigades which will enter Lebanon will be destroyed before the eyes of the mainstream media and the entire world". View More 1 May 2019 Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil asserted with respect to the U.S. sanctions that "we reject these punitive measures whether they're against Iran or Syria... however, Lebanon complies with all international procedure regarding financial transactions". He also indicated, with respect to sanctions against Hizbollah, that "there are effects [for Lebanon] but we have the ability to adapt and we have adapted with reality, and I think we managed to overcome this". View More 29 April 2019 Responding to a journalist's query as to whether "Lebanon has gone to Iran's bosom and lost its ties with Gulf and Arab countries", Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil responded "I don't think it's in Lebanon's interests to be in an axis or with a state against a state. Lebanon goes after its interest with each stance it takes". View More 25 April 2019 UN forces investigating what the IDF described as "Hizbollah attack tunnels" updated their findings to note that they had "independently confirmed the existence of five tunnels close to the Blue Line in northern Israel. Of these, three tunnels have been found to be crossing the Blue Line". View More 25 April 2019 UN forces investigating what the IDF described as "Hizbollah attack tunnels" updated their findings to note that they had "independently confirmed the existence of five tunnels close to the Blue Line in northern Israel. Of these, three tunnels have been found to be crossing the Blue Line". View More 24 April 2019 During a visit to the south of the country, Lebanon's defence minister remarked that "if Israel bombards our airport, we will bombard its airport; if it strikes our oil facilities, we will strike its oil facilities". View More 24 April 2019 The Treasury Department announced that it had "further targeted the global business operations of Hizbollah by designating two individuals and three entities acting as conduits for sanctions evasion schemes". View More 22 April 2019 Hizbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah maintained that "U.S. efforts to increase economic pressure on Iran, especially its pledge to drive the country's oil exports to zero, will have negative repercussions and will affect the entire world, including the U.S. itself". Nasrallah also predicted that "there is very little likelihood that Israel would launch another war on Lebanon", on the basis that "the Israeli army is not prepared for any aggression against the country". View More 22 April 2019 The U.S. announced that it was "offering a reward of up to $10 million for information leading to the disruption of the financial mechanisms of the global terrorist organisation Lebanese Hizbollah". National Security Advisor John Bolton characterised the move as "another example of how the U.S. is continuing to expand the scope and scale of our maximum pressure campaign against Iran and its proxies". View More 18 April 2019 A senior Israeli military official assessed that "Hizbollah still has plans to invade the Galilee", and predicted that "we will thwart those plans". He also indicated that "in the area referred to as 'southern Syria', our operations have been very effective, and they have actually pushed the Iranians out... in those places, Iran's presence is so weak it's almost nonexistent". View More 15 April 2019 A senior IRGC official indicated that "today, in the area of [Iran's] regional achievements, there are tens of thousands of Lebanese Hizbollah forces around the borders of the Zionist regime [i.e Israel], and this is something the Americans cannot stomach". View More 11 April 2019 The Treasury Department "identified Lebanese national Kassem Chams and designated the Chams Money Laundering Organisation as Specially Designated Narcotics Traffickers (SDNT)... [and] an affiliated network of Hizbollah". National Security Advisor John Bolton, describing the designation targets as a "narco-terrorism money laundering network working for Hizbollah", added that "we will continue to impose maximum economic pressure on Iran, its terrorist arm, the IRGC and its proxies and criminal affiliates around the world". View More 10 April 2019 Hizbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah posited that the U.S. move to blacklist the IRGC "shows that U.S. audacity and folly went beyond limits". He added that "until now we have only settled with condemnation, denouncement, patience and managing the situation calmly in the face of sanctions and terror lists, but our patience does not mean that we, the axis of resistance, do not have cards of strength". Nasrallah also opined that discussion of U.S. sanctions against Lebanese allies of Hizbollah "so far... remains an intimidation campaign". View More 6 April 2019 A U.S. official opined that Nabih Berri, Lebanon's parliamentary speaker, "continues to be Iran's man in Lebanon. He is Hizbollah's main line of political support. U.S. economic targeting and sanctions will increase until Berri goes - or changes, which is unlikely". "As long as Berri remains in power", the official predicted, "the country will suffer". View More 2 April 2019 The U.S. Special Representative for Iran, Brian Hook, maintained that "in Lebanon, the Iranian regime’s obsession with using Hizbollah to provoke conflict with Lebanon’s neighbours threatens the safety of the Lebanese people. IRGC backing enables Hizbollah to use murder, terrorism, and corruption to intimidate other Lebanese parties and communities". View More 1 April 2019 Unnamed U.S. sources revealed that during Secretary Pompeo's visit to Israel in March, Prime Minister Netanyahu shared intelligence indicating "that Hizbollah and Iran have set up a new covert factory for precision missiles on Lebanese soil". Pomepo had, during his subsequent stay in Beirut, conveyed these findings to the Lebanese government. View More 28 March 2019 Reflecting on his recent trip to Beirut, Secretary Pompeo stated that he had "called out Hizbollah, an organisation that now has infiltrated Lebanon in a way that is horrible for the Lebanese people... it wasn't popular". View More 26 March 2019 Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah responded to Secretary of State Pompeo's criticisms of Hizbollah during his visit to Beirut. "We feel happy when an official from the world's most powerful state is concerned over our role," Nasrallah asserted. "We feel happy when the administration of the Great Satan [i.e the U.S.] is annoyed by Hizbollah... [Pompeo's statements] made us more faithful that we are in the right position". View More 25 March 2019 In remarks to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), Secretary Pompeo stated that "the Trump administration and my team at the State Department is confronting the world's number one proponent of anti-Semitism, the Islamic Republic of Iran... we're enacted the strongest pressure campaign in history against Iran and its proxies, and they are feeling the pain". "Hassan Nasrallah, Hizbollah's terrorist-in-chief, recently begged for contributions from the very people in Lebanon that he and his Iranian masters have subjugated and terrorised", Pompeo added. "Hassan Nasrallah passing the tin cup around is good news". View More 25 March 2019 Following Secretary Pompeo's visit to Beirut, in the course of which he had warned Lebanon against "allow[ing] the dark ambitions of Iran and Hizbollah to dictate your future", Iran's diplomatic spokesperson riposted that "the provocative, meddlesome and undiplomatic remarks made by the U.S. Secretary of State... once again revealed Washington's patronising attitude and behaviour towards other free and independent countries". He went on to argue that "now that is has failed to realise its ominous goals in the sensitive region of the Middle East, the U.S. is resorting to the worn-out, hackneyed and outdated trick of intimidating and threatening others in a bit to impose its hegemonic policies and behaviour". "Iran stresses at it will tap into all its capacities in order to promote internal solidarity and unity in Lebanon", the spokesperson added, "and to reinforce bilateral ties with the country in issues that are in the interest of the Iranian and Lebanese people". View More 23 March 2019 In Beirut, Secretary Pompeo posited that Lebanon's democracy was "at risk because the Ayatollah Khamenei and [Qods force commander] Qasem Soleimani and the Islamic Republic of Iran want to take over this country; they want to control this state; they want access to the Mediterranean; they want power influence here". In his conversations with Lebanese officials, Pompeo argued, "all understand the importance of keeping the political power out of the hands of the Islamic Republic of Iran". He added that "our efforts [to counter Iran] will be everywhere. Our efforts will be intense. Our objective is noble: to help the Iranian people successfully retake the leadership and the governance of their own nation in the way I know they so richly deserve". View More 22 March 2019 On a visit to Beirut, Secretary Pompeo met with several senior Lebanese officials, including President Michel Aoun, Prime Minister Hariri and Foreign Minister Bassil. "We have to confront the facts. Hizbollah stands in the way of the Lebanese people's dreams", Pompeo declared in a joint appearance with Bassil, adding that "Hizbollah and its illegitimate militia put the entire country of Lebanon on the front lines of Iran's misguided proxy campaigns". "The U.S. will continue to bring unprecedented pressure to bear on Iran until it ceases all malign behaviour, including that which is carried out by Hizbollah", Pompeo added. Citing an estimate of $700 million in annual Iranian support for Hizbollah, he asserted that "our pressure on Iran is simple. It's aimed at cutting off all the funding for terrorists, and it's working... we believe that our work is already constraining Hizbollah's activities". "Lebanon and the Lebanese people face a choice", Pompeo suggested. "Bravely move forward as an independent and proud nation, or allow the dark ambitions of Iran and Hizbollah to dictate your future". View More 22 March 2019 During a joint appearance with Secretary of State Pompeo, Lebanese Foreign Minister Bassil remarked that "from our side, we reiterated that Hizbollah is a political party, that it is not terrorist... we want to work together in order to solve all these problems, including the issue of Hizbollah and the perception of Hizbollah and how to deal with Hizbollah". View More 22 March 2019 The U.S. special representative for Iran, Brian Hook, noted that "we know historically that Iran has given Hizbollah an average of $700 million a year... we have seen evidence of the impact [of U.S. sanctions] when the leader of Hizbollah makes a public appeal for charity. It speaks for itself. This is the kind of impact that we want". He added that "we know that we have denied the [Iranian] regime even in the short amount of time [since sanctions came into effect] many billions of dollars in revenue", and underscored that the U.S. held "talks with any government where we see sanctions violations or even potential sanctions violations". Hook went on to underscore that "we are... committed to ensuring that troops under Iranian command are out of Syria", and suggested Iran had a "vastly-under reported role in Yemen" despite having "no legitimate interest" in the country. "Giving [Iran] a foothold in Yemen", Hook argued, "allows them to threaten two straits of international commerce". View More 21 March 2019 Ahead of a visit to Beirut, Secretary Pompeo described Hizbollah as "a terrorist organisation - period, full stop". "This is an organisation underwritten by the Islamic Republic of Iran with the intention of the destruction of Israel and, if you listen to them closely, the destruction of Western democracy, including the U.S. as well", he continued. "We're going to be very clear about how America sees Hizbollah and our expectations about how Lebanon's success depends on - the Lebanese people will demand that a terrorist organisation not be in control of their government and not drive policies and create risk for their country as well". View More 13 March 2019 The Israeli military revealed that "a senior operative in the Lebanon-based terrorist organisation Hizbollah has been operating a new terror cell in Syria". Purportedly dubbed the "Golan File" by Hizbollah, the IDF assessed that "the network is new and currently focused on becoming familiarised with the Golan Heights area. It is intended to eventually control teams of Syrian operatives who will launch attacks against Israel". Commenting on the intelligence, Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that "I have a clear message for Iran and for Hizbollah: Israel knows what you're doing; Israel knows where you're doing it... we know a lot more". He added that Israel "will continue to use all means, overt and covert, to block Iran's efforts to use Syria, Lebanon and Gaza as forward bases for attacking Israel". Israel Foreign Ministry Twitter View More 8 March 2019 Hizbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah declared that "the sanctions and terror lists are a form of warfare against the resistance and we must deal with them as such. I announce that... we are in need of the support of our popular base". View More 7 March 2019 CENTCOM commander Joseph Votel opined that "Hizbollah's manipulation of the Lebanese political process thwarts needed reforms while exacerbating sectarian tensions inside Lebanon". He added that "Hizbollah has... engaged in provocative actions with Israel, risking unpredictable escalatory actions that threaten Israeli security and could undermine Lebanon's stability. Through its Hizbollah proxy, Iran continues to meddle in Lebanon's internal affairs". View More 25 February 2019 The U.S. welcomed the UK's move to "proscribe Hizbollah in its entirety". "This Iran-sponsored terrorist group has American blood on its hands and continues to plot and carry out attacks in the Middle East, Europe and around the world", said Secretary Pompeo. "International unity to confront Iran's regime continues to grow". View More 19 February 2019 U.S. Ambassador Elizabeth Richard revealed that she had shared with Prime Minister Hariri "U.S. concern over the growing role in the Cabinet of an organisation that continues to maintain a militia that is not under the control of the government, that continues to make its own national security decisions - decisions that endanger the rest of the country. And that continues to violate the government's disassociation policy by participating in armed conflict in at least three other countries". "This state of affairs does not contribute to stability", Richard suggested. "In fact, it is fundamentally destabilising". Lebanese President Michel Aoun argued the following day that "it is not true that Hizbollah's influence over Lebanon is increasing". View More 13 February 2019 Secretary Pompeo, in Warsaw for the Ministerial to Promote a Future of Peace and Security in the Middle East, described the proceedings as "absolutely historic... the first time in a quarter of a century that you had the prime minister of Israel in the same room talking about threats in the Middle East with senior Arab leaders from all across the Middle East". "This gathering is certainly about Middle East peace and stability," he explained. "You can't talk about that without talking about the threat from the Islamic Republic of Iran, whether it's Hizbollah, Hamas, the Houthis - I call them the three H's - whether it's their work against the Iraqi government... whether it's what they're doing in Syria today". Pompeo also remarked that "we don't expect the Iranian people to support the U.S. We expect them to take care of their own country... we want the Iranian people to have the opportunity to live in a prosperous, peaceful society and one that is controlled by their desires, their wishes. And if we can get that, I am very confident that these behaviours that we see in Iran will change dramatically". On Yemen, Pompeo stressed that "we have two problems - three problems really. The first problem is al-Qaeda... the second problem is Iran continuing to fund the Huthis... it provides missiles to the Huthis that they launch into airports in Saudi Arabia and the Emirates". View More 13 February 2019 The U.S. confirmed delivery of a $16 million shipment of laser-guided rockets for the Lebanese military, noting that the "delivery demonstrates the U.S. government's firm and steady commitment to support to the Lebanese army in their capacity as the sole, legitimate defender of Lebanon". View More 11 February 2019 Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif met with Hizbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, and underscored Tehran's determination to "stand firm by the Lebanese state, the Lebanese people and the Lebanese resistance". View More 10 February 2019 During a visit to Beirut, Foreign Minister Javad Zarif declared, with reference to military aid, that "we always have this type of readiness and we announced on other occasions that this tendency exists in Iran but we are waiting for this desire to exist on the Lebanese side". "If the Lebanese government requests, Iran is ready to cooperate with this country in all fields", he added. View More 6 February 2019 Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah declared that "I'm willing to bring the Lebanese army air defence systems from Iran to confront Israel", and also asserted that "if America launches a war on Iran, it will not be alone in the confrontation at all". "The resistance axis is stronger than ever", Nasrallah continued, "and the U.S. will further withdraw from the region and Israel is heading towards more fear and panic". View More 6 February 2019 Secretary Pompeo, responding to a question about the danger of Venezuela "turning into a no man's land", asserted that "people don't recognise that Hizbollah has active cells. The Iranian are impacting the people of Venezuela and throughout South America". "We have an obligation", he added, "to take down that risk for America". View More 5 February 2019 CENTCOM commander Joseph Votel posited that Hizbollah is "undermining the role of the legitimate Lebanese government and armed forces, adding that "Hizbollah has also engaged in provocative actions with Israel, risking unpredictable escalatory actions that threaten Israeli security and could undermine Lebanon's stability". Through its Hizbollah proxy", Votel continued, "Iran continues to meddle in Lebanon's internal affairs". View More 3 February 2019 Prime Minister told his cabinet that "in Iran today they are marking 40 years since the Islamic revolution and are trying to boast about the new missile. Iran openly declares its intention to destroy the State of Israel. I have a clear message to the tyrants of Tehran: we know what you are doing and where you are doing it. We will continue to take action against Iran with all the tools at our disposal in order to ensure the security and future of Israel". Netanyahu also met with a delegation of UN ambassadors, and asserted to them that "a great shift has taken place in the Middle East. That shift is the rise of the aggressive theocracy of Iran that seeks to conquer the Middle East, eliminate Israel and dominate many other parts of the world". "Iran has proxies", Netanyahu continued. "One of them is Hizbollah... they actually control the government of Lebanon. It means that Iran controls the government of Lebanon. It's important to send this very powerful message just as we stop the terror tunnels coming into Israel, we will stop all the aggression; from Lebanon or from Syria or from Iran itself". View More 31 January 2019 Lebanon's new national unity government was welcomed by Tehran and Washington, with the U.S. also noting concern "that Hizbollah, a U.S.-designated Foreign Terrorist Organization, will continue to occupy ministerial positions and was allowed to name the Minister of Public Health. We call on the new government to ensure the resources and services of these ministries do not provide support to Hizbollah". On a related note, a senior U.S. treasury official warned that "if we see that Hizbollah exploits, and they will exploit whatever ministry they are given, to funnel money and other terrorist agendas then we have significant problems with that". He added that "our pressure on the Persians is having clear and obvious effect. We applied sanctions on Iran because they refuse to stop their missile launchers and funneling of their activities abroad. As a result of the domestic corruption in Tehran there is less and less money to go around. And as a result of that, we are actually seeing that Hizbollah... is not getting the paychecks they once enjoyed from the Iranians". View More 29 January 2019 The U.S. intelligence community assessed that "Hizbollah most likely will continue to develop its terrorist capabilities, which the group views as a valuable tool and one it can maintain with plausible deniability". View More 27 January 2019 Prime Minister Netanyahu, responding to 26 January remarks by Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, posited that Nasrallah "is very embarrassed for three reasons: one, because of the great success of our operation 'Northern Shield'... second, Nasrallah is in a predicament due to financial distress. The policy that we pushed of re-imposing sanctions on Iran, which was clearly and sharply adopted by President Trump, is striking hard at the sources of financing for Iran and its proxies, especially Hizbollah". The third factor, Netanyahu opined, was "our determination". View More 26 January 2019 In an interview, Hizbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah remarked that "we will deal with any Israeli operation to hit targets in Lebanon as an attempt to change rules of engagement. And we will deal with any large-scale operation as a declaration of war against Lebanon". He also assessed that "no one knows when Syria would change its attitude towards the Israeli assaults, therefore they should be careful not to go too far with them, because the priority in the past was ending the internal Syria battle, but not the situation is different, Syria could respond, and Israel should never underestimate the response of the resistance axis, on top of which is Damascus". View More 23 January 2019 Israeli President Reuven Rivlin warned that "if we are threatened from Lebanon, we will not stand by. Hizbollah is creating facilities to produce and convert precision-guided missiles in the heart of Beirut under civilian cover and with Iranian support... this threatens Israeli security and could force us to respond, dragging the region into escalation that could badly harm Lebanon". View More 15 January 2019 Prime Minister Netanyahu remarked that "there is one central threat: Iran and its terror proxies. We have acted carefully and responsibly to thwart efforts by those who wish to annihilate us to become stronger. We did this by blocking the nuclear deal with Iran and reimposing sanctions. We had to penetrate through Iranian lies, as Iran lies all the time. They lied about the nuclear deal, and we exposed that by uncovering the secret nuclear archive from Tehran. They are lying now, saying that they are launching an ostensibly innocent satellite into space, but in fact, they are aiming to accomplish the first stage for an inter-continental missile in defiance of all international agreements. We fully support the U.S.' unwavering objection to this aggressive act". "Another step we have taken to protect Israel", he continued, "is disrupting Hizbollah's attempts to acquire precision-guided munitions, destroying Hizbollah's tunnels in the north and those of Hamas in the south, and above all, preventing the Iranian military entrenchment in Syria". Citing an Iranian official's recent remarks about Iran's advisory role in Syria, Netanyahu said: "I advise them to get out of there fast, because we will continue with our resolute policy, as we have promised and as we are doing, fearlessly and relentlessly". View More 13 January 2019 Prime Minister Netanyahu remarked that "we worked with impressive success to block Iran's military entrenchment in Syria. In this framework, the IDF attacked Iranian and Hizbollah targets hundreds of times. We worked together against the manufacture of precision weapons in Lebanon. We worked to dismantle Hizbollah's tunnels weapon in Lebanon, in Operation 'Northern Shield'". "Just in the last 36 hours", Netanyahu revealed, "the air force attacked Iranian warehouses with Iranian weapons at the international airport in Damascus. The accumulation of recent attacks proves that we are determined more than ever to take action against Iran in Syria, just as we promised". View More 13 January 2019 Confirming Israeli strikes against what he described as "an Iranian weapons warehouse at the international airport in Damascus", Prime Minister Netanyahu asserted that "if necessary, we will step up these attacks". He also indicated that operation "Northern Shield", along the Lebanon border, had come "to a successful close". View More 10 January 2019 Secretary Pompeo warned that "in Lebanon, Hizbollah remains a major presence, but we won't accept this status quo. Our aggressive sanctions campaign against Iran is also directed at the terror group and its leaders". Pompeo added that "the U.S. will work to reduce the threat of Hizbollah's missile arsenal, which is aimed at Israel... many of these rockets are equipped with advanced guidance systems, courtesy of Iran, and that's unacceptable. Iran may think it owns Lebanon. Iran is wrong". View More 3 January 2019 Prime Minister asserted that "we are acting decisively to thwart all those who seek to endanger us. This is now happening in Syria, against Iran's attempts to entrench itself militarily... it is also happening on the Lebanese border". Netanyahu went on to argue that "the greatest threat from Iran is that of nuclear weapons in the hands of a power which declares that we need to be wiped off the face of the earth... I insisted on the re-imposition of sanctions on Iran and President Trump indeed made the brave decision to re-impose them. President Trump is acting against Iran in the economic sphere and here in Israel we are acting against Iran in the military sphere". View More 28 December 2018 The State Department issued a statement underscoring that "the U.S. fully support Israel's right to defend itself against Iranian regional actions that endanger Israeli national security and the safety of the Israeli people. Iranian support of and supply to terrorist groups in Syria and across the region that have the clear intent and capability to strike Israel are unacceptable". View More 26 December 2018 Prime Minister Netanyahu remarked that "we are not prepared to accept the Iranian military entrenchment in Syria which is directed against us. We will act against it vigorously and continuously... we will not be deterred from doing what is necessary". He added that "President Trump's decision to withdraw the American soldiers from Syria will not change our policy. We are standing steadfast on our red lines in Syria and everywhere else". Netanyahu also indicated that "we are eliminating Hizbollah's terrorist tunnels one after the other", referring to operation "Northern Shield" along the Lebanon border. View More 25 December 2018 U.S. defence officials indicated that overnight Israeli strikes in Syria targeted Iranian arms depots as well as members of Hizbollah, while a Russian military spokesperson argued that "provocative acts by the Israeli Air Force endangered two passenger jets". View More 23 December 2018 Prime Minister told his cabinet that Washington's "decision to withdraw 2000 U.S. troops from Syria will not change our consistent policy: we will continue to act against Iran's attempts to entrench itself militarily in Syria, and to the extent necessary, we will even expand our actions there". He went on to say that "cooperation with the U.S. will continue in full", and assessed that Israel's ongoing Operation "Northern Shield" along the Lebanon border was "meeting its timetable and its objectives". View More 20 December 2018 Prime Minister Netanyahu indicated that Israel was "continuing our efforts to neutralise the terror tunnels [along the Lebanon border]", and added that "we will continue to take very strong action against Iran's attempts to entrench itself in Syria. In neither of these sectors do we intend to lessen our efforts; we will intensify them, and I know that we do so with the full support and backing of the U.S." View More 19 December 2018 Prime Minister Netanyahu opined that Hizbollah's digging of tunnels along the Israel-Lebanon border was "part of a war plan", adding that "Hizbollah is doing all this because Iran supports it in every way, including with money. Money that it got from the flawed Iranian [nuclear] deal. And this is part of the Iranian web of aggression". He went on to urge that the UN Security Council "condemn Hizbollah's wanton acts of aggression; to designate Hizbollah, in its entirety, as a terrorist organisation; to press for heightened sanctions against Hizbollah; to demand that Lebanon stop allowing its territory to be used as an act of aggression and its citizens to be used as pawns; to support Israel's right to defend itself against Iranian-inspired and Iranian-conducted aggression". View More 19 December 2018 Prime Minister Netanyahu asserted that "we are committed to fighting the [Iran] nuclear agreement also with operations and actions and diplomatic moves... we are striking Iran and Syria and of course the U.S. is striking Iran economically. We are working to shrink this body which is responsible for almost all of the security problems that the State of Israel has". He added that "we are fighting the arms of Iran and Hizbollah... they [i.e. Hizbollah] planned to have thousands of precision missiles and they have a few dozen at best". View More 18 December 2018 The Israeli military published video footage of a Hizbollah tunnel, noting that it was "funded by Iran and cost millions of dollars". "Think about how that money could've been invested in the Iranian or Lebanese people", the IDF asserted, "but Lebanon allowed Hizbollah to invest it in killing Israelis". View More 16 December 2018 Prime Minister Netanyahu told his cabinet that "the IDF uncovered a fourth Hizbollah tunnel", and went on to say that the "operation [Northern Shield] to deny Hizbollah the tunnel weapon is proceeding according to plan and will continue until all of its goals are achieved". View More 12 December 2018 Prime Minister Netanyahu indicated that "our red line is survival. We do what is necessary to protect the State of Israel against the Iranian regime that openly calls for the annihilation of the Jewish state". Netanyahu added that "I'm not ruling out doing anything that we need to do to defend ourselves. For the moment Israel's military is the only military... that is directly engaging the Iranian forces. We're doing that in Syria and pulling them back". He went on to say that "we're going to stop things... when they're small. So we meet Iran head-on in Syria and if we need to we'll do whatever else we need to do to protect ourselves". View More 12 December 2018 An Israeli military delegation met with Russian counterparts in Moscow to update them on operation "Northern Shield" and consult about "the improvement of the two militaries' deconfliction system in the norther region". The IDF indicated that it would "continue operating to prevent Iranian entrenchment and the arming of Hizbollah in Syria". View More 11 December 2018 Discussing operation "Northern Shield", Prime Minister Netanyahu asserted that "the most important thing is the readiness... for a much stronger response if Hizbollah makes a major mistake and decides to attack us or oppose our action. Hizbollah will be dealt unimaginable blows". He went to assess that "Hizbollah understands that we are well prepared for any attempt on its part to respond and it realises that we have a great force here opposite it. I tell you now that it does not fully grasp it". View More 11 December 2018 In an update on operation "Northern Shield", the Israeli military revealed that it had uncovered a third Hizbollah tunnel and "placed explosives" in it. The IDF went on to warn "Hizbollah terrorists: enter at your own risk". View More 10 December 2018 Prime Minister told Israel's diplomatic corps that "the exposure of Hizbollah's terrorist tunnels on the northern border is part of an effort, which is not just military, to block the tunnels threat. But it is also a public diplomacy, economic and diplomatic effort to impose increased sanctions Hizbollah, to designate all subdivisions of Hizbollah as one organisation". "It is also necessary", Netanyahu continued, "to increase sanctions on Iran, which is behind this organisation and is also behind Hamas' similar attempts". View More 10 December 2018 Asked about Israel's operation "Northern Shield", Secretary Pompeo indicated that "the U.S. fully supports Israel's right and we do our best to support their capability to defend themselves from Iranian aggression". "These tunnels", Pompeo continued, "are Iranian-connected Lebanese Hizbollah efforts to violate the most basic premise of sovereignty". View More 9 December 2018 A senior Hizbollah official claimed that "the Israeli domestic front, even Tel Aviv, and every point in the Zionist entity [i.e. Israel] can be targeted by Hizbollah's missiles". He went on to argue that "the rules of engagement that Hizbollah has created in Lebanon and the rules of deterrence have made the idea of a war initiated by Israel against Lebanon very difficult". View More 9 December 2018 Prime Minister Netanyahu told his cabinet that "we will continue the operation [Northern Shield] until... the tunnel threat in the north is neutralised. At the same time we are working in the intelligence sphere in order to denounce Hizbollah and Iran and to increase sanctions against both of them". Netanyahu also detailed his earlier conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, stating that "I told President Putin that we are continuing our policy: we will not allow Iran to establish a military presence in Syria. We will continue to take action against the precision weapons in Lebanon, and we will complete the operation to foil the tunnels threat". View More 6 December 2018 Briefing foreign diplomats on operation "Northern Shield", Prime Minister Netanyahu remarked that "what we're facing is one big enemy. That enemy is called Iran. Iran is trying to act on two levels. One, to develop a nuclear arsenal... the second thing that Iran is doing is developing conventional weapons against us and have declared war to annihilate Israel". Hizbollah, Netanyahu asserted, "planned to have by now thousands of precision-guided missiles, in fact... [they have] a few dozen". He went on to call for "heightened sanctions on Hizbollah", and added that "Lebanon should be put on the list because they're saying nothing about this". View More 5 December 2018 UNIFIL chaired a tripartite session with Israeli and Lebanese military officials, and called on the parties to "avoid misunderstandings and ensure that security and stability along the Blue Line is maintained and reinforced". View More 4 December 2018 The U.S. special representative for Iran, Brian Hook, stated that "every year, Iran's regime steals $700 million from its people and sends it to Hizbollah to fund its terrorist activities - like the newly-discovered tunnels - against Israel". "We're determined to exert maximum pressure to reverse all of the Iranian regime's threats", Hook added. View More 4 December 2018 The Israeli military launched operation "Northern Shield", described by Prime Minister Netanyahu as "a campaign to expose and neutralise a network of terror tunnels on our northern border with Lebanon". "These cross-border terror tunnels were built by Hizbollah", asserted Netanyahu, "with direct support and funding from Iran". Warning that "Israel holds the Lebanese government accountable for all terror activity emanating from Lebanon against Israel", he added that "we will continue to do all that is necessary to defend ourselves against Iran's efforts to use Lebanon, Syria and Gaza as forward terror bases to attack Israel". In a statement, the Lebanese military maintained that "the situation is calm... and is being followed up on", while a Hizbollah official insisted that "routine is maintained in southern Lebanon's villages". View More 3 December 2018 An unnamed "senior Hizbollah source" maintained that "Iranian and Hizbollah positions in Kiswah... were not exposed to any bombardment" the week before. View More 30 November 2018 Hizbollah published a video citing its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, warning that "in case of any assault on Lebanon, in case of any air raid on Lebanon, in case of any bombardment at Lebanon, we will inevitably retaliate". View More 29 November 2018 The U.S. special representative for Iran, Brian Hook, indicated that "in Lebanon, we have evidence that Iran is helping Hizbollah build missile production facilities". View More 13 November 2018 The U.S. announced "rewards of up to $5 million... for information leading to the identification or location" of a Hamas official purportedly "working with [IRGC Quds force commander] Qasem Soleimani" in Lebanon. Similar rewards were offered for two Hizbollah officials, one of whom was described as Hizbollah's "chief military liaison to Iran and to Palestinian terrorist organisations". View More 13 November 2018 The State Department designated the son of Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Jawad Nasrallah, as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT), and additionally designated Al-Mujahidin Brigades, which it described as a "military organisation that has operated in the Palestinian Territories since 2005... [and] has ties to Hizbollah". "Today's action maintain the momentum of the Administration's snapback sanctions on Iran", the department noted. View More 13 November 2018 The Treasury Department designated "four Hizbollah-affiliated individuals who lead and coordinate the group's operational, intelligence and financial activities in Iraq". "Treasury's concerted actions aim to deny Hizbollah's clandestine attempts to exploit Iraq to launder funds, procure weapons, train fighters and collect intelligence as a proxy for Iran", asserted a senior Treasury official. View More 10 November 2018 The leader of Hizbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, declared that the "source of our strength are our missiles because the Lebanese army is not allowed to acquire advanced missiles". He went on to warn that "we will respond to any Israeli strike on Lebanon and will not accept any aggression by the enemy on our land". View More 29 October 2018 Israel reportedly passed on a message to Lebanon warning that its "government must be careful when it comes to Hizbollah's rocket factories. If the issue isn't dealt with through diplomatic means by the Lebanese government, Israel will act on its own". View More 25 October 2018 President Trump signed into law sanctions legislation against Hizbollah intended to "further isolate Hizbollah from the international financial system and reduce its funding". In accompanying remarks, President Trump pledged that the U.S. would "target, disrupt and dismantle [Hizbollah's] operational and financing networks - of which they had plenty; they don't have plenty now". He also asserted that "we are doing a big number on Iran today", adding that the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions against Tehran on 5 November "will be followed up with even more sanctions to address the full range of Iran's malign conduct". View More 14 October 2018 The Justice Department designated Hizbollah as a "top transnational organized crime threat" View More 14 October 2018 The Justice Department designated Hizbollah as a "top transnational organized crime threat" View More 4 October 2018 The Treasury Department designated one individual and seven Lebanese companies for supporting a "Hizbollah insider and financier" already designated by the U.S. View More 29 September 2018 A minister in the Hadi government called on Lebanon "to intervene to stop the subversive and inciting activities of the Iranian Huthi militias in Lebanon under the cover of political, security and financial support from Hizbollah". View More 27 September 2018 Prime Minister Netanyahu warned Iran that "we will act against you in Lebanon", where he claimed "Iran is directing Hizbollah to build secret sites to convert inaccurate projectiles into precision guided missiles". Accusing Hizbollah of "deliberately using the innocent people of Beirut as human shields", he declared to Hizbollah that "Israel knows... and Israel will not let you get away with it". View More 27 September 2018 Responding to Prime Minister Netanyahu's UN General Assembly speech, Lebanon's foreign minister, Gebran Bassil, asserted that "here is Israel, again coming up with excuses to justify assault and preparing to violate the sovereignty of states..." View More 20 September 2018 Prime Minister Netanyahu advised Hizbollah's leader to "think not twice but twenty times because if he confronts us he will receive a crushing blow that he cannot even imagine". View More 20 September 2018 The leader of Hizbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, stated that Israel has "been working hard to cut off the road and prevent us from possessing accurate missiles. I say whatever you do to cut off the road on us, it's all over, we are now in possession of accurate missiles that if used in any future war you can't expect what your fate will be". View More 19 September 2018 The U.S. special representative for Iran, Brian Hook, revealed that "we have evidence is helping Hizbollah build missile production facilities". View More 12 September 2018 Commenting on the 2005 assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri, the Saudi ambassador to the U.S. noted that "the Special Tribunal for Lebanon renewed its accusations against four Hizbollah members, while they remain free; they continue to hold Lebanon hostage to Iranian terrorism". He added that "the international community must come together and hold those who committed this crime against Lebanon's sovereignty accountable by identifying the conspirators and punishing them. Rogue regimes must pay a price for using political assassinations to spread chaos in our region". View More 4 September 2018 Iran dismissed a Fox News article alleging possible Iranian weapons transfers into Lebanon, with the foreign ministry's spokesperson asserting that "the publication of such false news has become a common occurrence... indicating the escalation of the psychological warfare waged by anti-Iran and hostile circles". View More 3 September 2018 A senior Israeli military official declared that "Hizbollah speaks from the bunker. We're aware of their financial situation and abilities. If they knew what we knew about them, they wouldn't speak so confidently". "I hope there'll be no war", he added, "but if there is, it'll be the last northern war". View More 26 August 2018 The leader of Hizbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, declared that "the Israeli army has developed much of its capabilities and acquired state-of-the-art missile and military hardware, it cannot yet evade defeat". He went on to warn of a "campaign being launched via social media to distort Hizbollah's image", and cautioned that "claims... Hizbollah is now in control of Lebanon's decisions are aimed at pinning the blame on the party for all the current situations". View More 18 August 2018 The leader of Hizbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, met with senior Huthi officials in Lebanon. View More 16 August 2018 The Saudi ambassador to Washington, Khalid bin Salman, took to Twitter to assert that "among the much ignored realities in Yemen is not only the direct assistance the Huthi militia receives from the Iranian regime, but the existence of Hizbollah commanders on the ground". Subsequent tweets showed an alleged Hizbollah member "advising [the Huthis] on asymmetric warfare" and "deception tactics", which the ambassador went to cite as "evidence (among others) [that] confirms the ideological and military connection the Huthis and Hizbollah have to the Iranian regime". View More 14 August 2018 The leader of Hizbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, opined that the "U.S. and Israel are too weak to launch wars like those launched in the region before... those who want war we will give them war, but a war that we are ready for and will triumph in". He went on to say that "sanctions aim at creating public anger against the Islamic establishment in Iran in a bid to weaken the axis of resistance", adding that Iran "is more powerful than ever before". View More 11 July 2018 Saudi Arabia's UN envoy asserted that his government "will confront the militias of the Lebanese Hizbollah party everywhere, and expose its practices to the international community". View More 8 July 2018 In a letter to his Lebanese counterpart, Yemen's foreign minister condemned remarks from Hizbollah's leadership supporting the Huthis. View More 5 July 2018 The secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, declared that "just in Europe, Iran-sponsored assassinations, bombings and other terrorist attacks have scarred countless lives"; accompanying graphics illustrated purported terrorist plots and attacks carried out by Iran and Hizbollah. View More 25 June 2018 Yemeni forces claimed to have apprehended seven Hizbollah members in Yemen's northern governorate of Saada. View More 25 June 2018 The Saudi-led coalition claimed to have killed 8 Hizbollah fighters in clashes against Huthi forces in Saada. View More 24 June 2018 A senior Iranian defence official posited that "Lebanese Hizbollah, armed with 80,000 rockets, has turned into a permanent threat for the Zionists [Israel]". View More 11 June 2018 Quds Force Commander Qasem Suleimani claimed that "Saudi Arabia spent $200 million in a short period of time on the Lebanese elections", and argued that Hizbollah's performance in the polls, which he tallied at 74 seats, meant it "has transformed into a Lebanese Resistance state from a Lebanese Resistance political party". Saad Hariri called Suleimani's comments "regrettable". View More 6 June 2018 The speaker of parliament, Nabih Berri, asserted that Iranian and Hizbollah forces will remain in Syria "until Syria is liberated and regains its territorial integrity". View More 25 May 2018 The leader of Hizbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, argued that "the U.S. and Saudi sanctions against me and my brothers do not have material effect, seeing as we don't have money in banks, but the aim is to scare people of meeting with us". View More 24 May 2018 Saad Hariri was appointed prime minister. View More 21 May 2018 The UN Secretary-General "call[ed] upon countries in the region that maintain close ties with Hizbollah to encourage the transformation of the armed group into a solely civilian political party, and its disarmament". View More 18 May 2018 A Hizbollah official brushed off U.S. sanctions designations targeting the group as having "no value of political effect". View More 16 May 2018 The U.S., Saudi Arabia and five other members of the Terrorist Financing and Targeting Center (TFTC) announced sanctions designations against Hizbollah's leadership. View More 15 May 2018 President Rouhani pledged that "Iran will continue supporting the Lebanese government and nation to resist against terrorist groups and aggression by the Zionist Regime". View More 14 May 2018 The leader of Hizbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, claimed that 55 missile were fired at Israel on 10 May, adding that "the message was delivered... the era when you hit Syria without response is over". View More 7 May 2018 Hassan Nasrallah hailed the results of Lebanese parliamentary elections as "a political and moral victory for the choice of resistance which will protect the country's sovereignty". View More 1 May 2018 With parliamentary elections approaching, Hassan Nasrallah declared that "the resistance needs political protection because of the international and regional conspiracy. The Saudi crown prince is ready to pay billions of dollars to incite the U.S. and 'Israel' to wage war on the region". View More 15 April 2018 Responding to the recent U.S.-led strikes in Syria, the leader of Hizbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, argued that the U.S. "knows well that going towards a wide confrontation against the regime and the army and the allied forces in Syria could not end... any such confrontation would inflame the entire region". View More 13 April 2018 A senior Hizbollah official downplayed the possibility that potential U.S. retaliation following the suspected chemical attack in Douma on 7 April might escalate "into a direct American-Russian clash or a wide state of war". He added that "if the assault on Syria has a very limited scope, then it's expected that reactions from the concerned sides in Syria will be tied to the Syrian arena". View More 13 April 2018 The leader of Hizbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, blamed Israel for the 9 April airstrikes against the T4 airbase in Syria and called it "a historic mistake... which brings [Israel] into direct confrontation with Iran". View More 12 April 2018 The president of Lebanon, Michel Aoun, maintained that his country "will not accept any Israeli exploitation of our airspace". View More 27 March 2018 The leader of Hizbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, alleged that Saudi Arabia had offered substantial aid for Syria's reconstruction if the Syrian government broke ties with Iran and Hizbollah. View More 8 March 2018 A U.S. military official indicated that in the event of Iranian missile strikes against Israel, "we will have fighting forces moving within 72 hours". View More 19 February 2018 The commander of the Lebanese armed forces, Joseph Aoun, warned that "the army will not spare any method available to confront any Israeli aggression, whatever the costs". View More 2 February 2018 The Treasury Department announced sanctions designations against six persons and seven entities linked to Hizbollah. View More 28 January 2018 In an article published on Arabic-language media, an Israeli military official dubbed Lebanon "one large missile factory". IDF spokesman Ronen Manelis went on to write that "Iran has de-facto opened a new branch, the 'Lebanon branch'", adding that "our security red lines are clearly demarcated. We have proven that is the case every week. The choice is yours, people of Lebanon". View More 5 December 2017 Hariri withdrew his resignation. In remarks to the cabinet, he declared that “it cannot be that we accept that any Lebanese side interferes in the affairs of Arab states”. View More 28 November 2017 Hariri stated that “Lebanon cannot resolve a question like Hizbollah which is in Syria, Iraq, everywhere because of Iran. It is a regional political solution that needs to be done … I think in the interest of Lebanon, Hizbollah is carrying out a positive dialogue. They know we have to remain neutral in the region”. View More 25 November 2017 Hariri declared that “we will not accept Hizbollah’s positions that affect our Arab brothers or target the security and stability of their countries”. View More 22 November 2017 Hariri suspended his resignation after talks with Lebanon’s president. View More 21 November 2017 After briefs stays in France and Egypt, Hariri headed back to Beirut. View More 15 November 2017 Lebanese President Michel Aoun accused Saudi Arabia of holding Hariri against his will. View More 12 November 2017 In a televised live interview on his own Future TV, Hariri insisted that he was staying in Saudi Arabia at his own will and was free to go. View More 6 November 2017 Hariri held discussions with King Salman of Saudi Arabia and several top Saudi officials in Riyadh. View More 4 November 2017 Israel’s defence minister, Avigdor Lieberman, responded to the Hariri resignation by tweeting: “Lebanon = Hizbollah. Hizbollah = Iran. Lebanon = Iran. Iran is dangerous for the world. Saad Hariri proved that today. Period”. ISRAELI DEFENCE MINISTER'S Twitter View More 4 November 2017 Hariri announced in Saudi Arabia that he was resigning from his post. View More 2 November 2017 Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, held meetings in Beirut with Hariri, Aoun and the parliament speaker, Nabih Berri. View More 25 October 2017 The U.S. House of Representatives passed the Hizballah International Financing Prevention Amendments Act of 2017 (H.R. 3329) and the Sanctioning Hizballah’s Illicit Use of Civilians as Defenseless Shields Act (H.R. 3342). It also passed H.R. 359, “urging the European Union to designate Hizballah in its entirely as a terrorist organization and increase pressure on it and its members”. View More See more Background Lebanon is deeply fractured along clan, family, confessional, regional and social lines. It still bears the scars of a long and bloody civil war, and its politics still live by the rhythm of the Taef Accord brokered in Saudi Arabia in November 1989. Hizbollah, created with Iranian help in the turmoil of Israel’s 1982 Lebanon invasion and occupation, for many years owed its popularity and growth to its championing of Lebanese Shiites’ cause without presenting itself as a sectarian actor, and to its adopting a nationalist and anti-imperialist rhetoric focused on Israel and the U.S. Since the 1990 end of the civil war, it has played a dual role of political party within the Lebanese system and armed resistance movement confronting Israel outside state structures. The 2011 Syrian uprising and subsequent civil war led it to shed its predominantly Lebanese profile by projecting its power across the border and thrusting itself into a sectarian-coloured regional power struggle. Hizbollah’s Syria intervention thus changed the way other regional actors see the organisation. It has gone from a nuisance to Saudi interests and a threat to Israel, to a significant regional player in its own right, acting as one of Tehran’s levers. In October 2016, after two years of political stalemate, and with Riyadh’s implicit blessing, Michel Aoun – a Christian politician close to Hizbollah – was elected president, while Saad Hariri, Saudi Arabia’s principal ally, took up the post of prime minister in a government that included Hizbollah. In announcing his surprise resignation on 4 November 2017, Hariri was unequivocal in condemning Hizbollah and Iran’s influence in Lebanon. From Riyadh, Hariri declared that “wherever Iran settles, it sows discord, devastation, and destruction, proven by its interference in the internal affairs of Arab countries”. In a measured reaction, Hizbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, called for calm, while contending that Saudi Arabia was behind the move. Hariri suspended his resignation on 22 November, and withdrew it on 5 December. The view from Washington is that Hizbollah is a terrorist organisation and an agent of Iranian influence across the Levant. In October, Congress passed a series of new sanctions against the group as part of a wider effort to confront Iran’s regional influence. Yet, the Trump administration is also concerned not to rock the boat in one of the region’s few islands of relative stability. Washington and its regional allies are also concerned about what they suspect is an Iranian attempt to forge a land corridor from Iran to Iraq to Syria to Lebanon that would enhance Tehran’s ability to ship arms to Hizbollah and its proxies in Syria. The view from Tehran is that Hariri did not resign but was pushed out by Saudi Arabia, in order to draw Israel into conflict with Hizbollah. Iran has little interest in seeing Lebanon slip into turmoil or Hizbollah engaged in another front, particularly as it remains preoccupied with assuring the Assad regime’s survival. The view from Jerusalem is that it must highlight the threat it faces from Hizbollah to rally outside support toward adopting a tougher line against Iran. In an interview with a Saudi-owned website, Israel’s chief of staff, Gadi Eisenkot, stated that Israel was “ready to exchange experiences with moderate Arab countries and to exchange intelligence to confront Iran”. Israel has drawn at least three red lines regarding Hizbollah: over Iran’s transfer of sophisticated weapons to Hizbollah, Hizbollah massing fighters in southern Syria and Hizbollah’s attempt to build an indigenous manufacturing capability for precision-guided missiles Lebanon's prime minister Saad al-Hariri walks down the steps of an airplane at Beirut's international airport, 21 November 2017 REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir III. Analysis Poll Position? Lebanon's 6 May elections readjusted the political balance but brought no fundamental change. Hizbollah and its partner Amal once again monopolised the Shiite vote to win 28 seats, and they can count on the support of about a dozen MPs from smaller parties, but this does not amount to a sweeping victory or coherent parliamentary bloc. Prime Minister Saad Hariri's Future Movement saw its parliamentary bloc dwindle by a third, and he lacks the numbers to form a government without Hizbollah's support. For its part, Hizbollah has expressed its intention to cooperate with Hariri. Thus the new parliament, and the new government, will likely resemble the old. A New Cold War Front? Hariri's move shows that Lebanon is no longer insulated from the Tehran-Riyadh rivalry. Saudi Arabia sees an ascendant Iran in the region and is seeking, along with the U.S. and Israel, to reverse its adversary’s gains. They may see making Iran bleed in Lebanon, or at minimum curbing Hizbollah’s political strength, as one way of achieving that goal. Iranian media, implausibly, cited Tehran’s rejection of Saudi terms regarding Iran’s policies in Yemen, relayed by Hariri before resigning, as part of the circumstances surrounding his departure. A Chimera: The notion that the Saudi leadership could have used Hariri, as prime minister, to rein in Hizbollah in Lebanon is fanciful if one considers the group’s relationship to previous Lebanese governments since 2005, which it either dominated, defied or toppled at will. Nor is it plausible that Hariri’s resignation would reduce Hizbollah’s political dominance. With the party and its allies effectively monopolising the vote of the Shiite community – roughly a third of the population – no government can be formed without its consent. If the idea was to expose Hizbollah and trigger an Israel-Hizbollah confrontation, Israel neither needed the exposure nor appears to have the appetite for a war with Hizbollah at this stage. Storm in a Teacup? Hariri’s resignation was put on hold after he returned to Lebanon, then rescinded. If it is revived, the most likely near-term scenario is that Lebanon will once again be stuck without a functional government, a situation that arguably serves Hizbollah more than it harms it. Rather than as the source of the problem, Hizbollah’s secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, can cast his party as a proponent of “safety and stability for Lebanon” whose partner has walked out on. Neither Imminent, Nor Inevitable? The very reason Israel wishes to forcefully strike Hizbollah is the reason it is inhibited from doing so — namely the prospect of a barrage of missiles on its urban centres. Israel possesses far greater ability to inflict pain, but Hizbollah possesses far greater capacity to absorb it, which means that any large-scale Israeli operation runs the risk of being open-ended. Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader meets with Hassan Nasrallah, 3 November 2017 IRNA IV. Scenarios and Recommendations Red Lines on Fault Lines: Actions by Iran and/or Hizbollah that challenge the Israeli red lines regarding weapons transfers to, and weapons production by Hizbollah can lead to a military response in Lebanon, inside Syria or both. The third red line over Hizbollah’s presence in south-east Syria further heightens tensions, and Israeli kinetic action against Iran-backed forces there could draw Hizbollah into a conflict as well. While neither Israel nor Hizbollah is eager for a fight, they might both push to the brink, calculating – or miscalculating – that the other loathes a confrontation more than they do. David and Goliath? There is no Lebanese actor able to mount a credible military challenge to Hizbollah. In the region, Israel is the only force that could seriously decimate, or perhaps even destroy, the party’s military capability, but this would occur with devastating effect for the civilian population in Lebanon but also, to a lesser extent, in Israel. It appears unlikely that Prime Minister Netanyahu is ready to go to war at this time. Even with U.S. and Saudi support, Israel would carry the burden of military action and bear the brunt of Hizbollah’s retaliation via its considerable missile capacity, reckoned by Israel to number around 120,000. No Provocation = No War: Israel and Hizbollah should refrain from testing the other sides’ limits. Hizbollah should halt development of more potent pression guided missiles that it knows would provoke an Israeli response. Israel can enforce the red lines that it has established, as it has done so in Syria; but should refrain from pushing the envelope, targeting Hizbollah on Lebanon’s soil, and enticing the party to take retaliatory measures of its own.