Flashpoint / Global

Lebanon

I. Why it Matters

Iran seeks to projects its influence in Lebanon, primarily through longstanding support for Hizbollah. Their relationship, which has ideological, financial and military dimensions, is perhaps the most enduring element in the “axis of resistance” Tehran has cultivated among local partners across the region. From Israel’s perspective, this presents a multilayered concern: It has created a significant threat on its northern border, compounds the significance of Iranian influence in Syria as a conduit for arms shipment and could in a worst-case scenario see Iranian allies coordinated and mobilised against it on multiple fronts simultaneously. Though a degree of deterrence between Israel and Hizbollah has kept recent flareups in check, that balance is tenuous.

II. Recent Developments

  • 23 April 2024
    View More
  • 17 April 2024
    View More
  • 16 April 2024
    View More
  • 15 April 2024
    View More
  • 13 April 2024
    View More
  • 8 April 2024
    View More
  • 7 April 2024
    View More
  • 3 April 2024
    View More
  • 29 March 2024
    View More
  • 27 March 2024
    View More
  • 26 March 2024
    View More
  • 26 March 2024
    View More
  • 23 March 2024
    View More
  • 21 March 2024
    View More
  • 13 March 2024
    View More
  • 12 March 2024
    View More
  • 9 March 2024
    View More
  • 8 March 2024
    View More
  • 5 March 2024
    View More
  • 2 March 2024
    View More
  • 26 February 2024
    View More
  • 25 February 2024
    View More
  • 22 February 2024
    View More
  • 21 February 2024
    View More
  • 16 February 2024
    View More
  • 14 February 2024
    View More
  • 13 February 2024
    View More
  • 9 February 2024
    View More
  • 8 February 2024
    View More
  • 3 February 2024
    View More
  • 31 January 2024
    View More
  • 31 January 2024
    View More
  • 30 January 2024
    View More
  • 29 January 2024
    View More
  • 28 January 2024
    View More
  • 27 January 2024
    View More
  • 26 January 2024
    View More
  • 25 January 2024
    View More
  • 24 January 2024
    View More
  • 23 January 2024
    View More
  • 22 January 2024
    View More
  • 22 January 2024
    View More
  • 21 January 2024
    View More
  • 20 January 2024
    View More
  • 19 January 2024
    View More
  • 18 January 2024
    View More
  • 17 January 2024
    View More
  • 16 January 2024
    View More
  • 15 January 2024
    View More
  • 14 January 2024
    View More
  • 13 January 2024
    View More
  • 11 January 2024
    View More
  • 10 January 2024
    View More
  • 9 January 2024
    View More
  • 8 January 2024
    View More
  • 7 January 2024
    View More
  • 6 January 2024
    View More
  • 6 January 2024
    View More
  • 5 January 2024
    View More
  • 4 January 2024
    View More
  • 3 January 2024
    View More
  • 3 January 2024
    View More
  • 2 January 2024
    View More
  • 2 January 2024
    View More
  • 1 January 2024
    View More
  • 31 December 2023
    View More
  • 30 December 2023
    View More
  • 29 December 2023
    View More
  • 28 December 2023
    View More
  • 27 December 2023
    View More
  • 26 December 2023
    View More
  • 26 December 2023
    View More
  • 25 December 2023
    View More
  • 24 December 2023
    View More
  • 23 December 2023
    View More
  • 22 December 2023
    View More
  • 21 December 2023
    View More
  • 21 December 2023
    View More
  • 20 December 2023
    View More
  • 19 December 2023
    View More
  • 18 December 2023
    View More
  • 18 December 2023
    View More
  • 17 December 2023
    View More
  • 16 December 2023
    View More
  • 15 December 2023
    View More
  • 14 December 2023
    View More
  • 13 December 2023
    View More
  • 11 December 2023
    View More
  • 11 December 2023
    View More
  • 10 December 2023
    View More
  • 9 December 2023
    View More
  • 8 December 2023
    View More
  • 7 December 2023
    View More
  • 6 December 2023
    View More
  • 5 December 2023
    View More
  • 4 December 2023
    View More
  • 3 December 2023
    View More
  • 2 December 2023
    View More
  • 1 December 2023
    View More
  • 30 November 2023
    View More
  • 25 November 2023
    View More
  • 23 November 2023
    View More
  • 22 November 2023
    View More
  • 21 November 2023
    View More
  • 20 November 2023
    View More
  • 18 November 2023
    View More
  • 17 November 2023
    View More
  • 16 November 2023
    View More
  • 15 November 2023
    View More
  • 14 November 2023
    View More
  • 13 November 2023
    View More
  • 12 November 2023
    View More
  • 11 November 2023
    View More
  • 11 November 2023
    View More
  • 10 November 2023
    View More
  • 9 November 2023
    View More
  • 8 November 2023
    View More
  • 8 November 2023
    View More
  • 7 November 2023
    View More
  • 6 November 2023
    View More
  • 5 November 2023
    View More
  • 4 November 2023
    View More
  • 4 November 2023
    View More
  • 3 November 2023
    View More
  • 3 November 2023
    View More
  • 3 November 2023
    View More
  • 2 November 2023
    View More
  • 2 November 2023
    View More
  • 1 November 2023
    View More
  • 31 October 2023
    View More
  • 30 October 2023
    View More
  • 29 October 2023
    View More
  • 27 October 2023
    View More
  • 26 October 2023
    View More
  • 25 October 2023
    View More
  • 24 October 2023
    View More
  • 24 October 2023
    View More
  • 23 October 2023
    View More
  • 22 October 2023
    View More
  • 21 October 2023
    View More
  • 21 October 2023
    View More
  • 20 October 2023
    View More
  • 19 October 2023
    View More
  • 19 October 2023
    View More
  • 17 October 2023
    View More
  • 16 October 2023
    View More
  • 15 October 2023
    View More
  • 14 October 2023
    View More
  • 14 October 2023
    View More
  • 13 October 2023
    View More
  • 13 October 2023
    View More
  • 11 October 2023
    View More
  • 10 October 2023
    View More
  • 10 October 2023
    View More
  • 9 October 2023
    View More
  • 8 October 2023
    View More
  • 1 October 2023
    View More
  • 23 September 2023
    View More
  • 12 September 2023
    View More
  • 11 September 2023
    View More
  • 1 September 2023
    View More
  • 29 August 2023
    View More
  • 26 August 2023
    View More
  • 24 August 2023
    View More
  • 23 August 2023
    View More
  • 16 August 2023
    View More
  • 13 August 2023
    View More
  • 8 August 2023
    View More
  • 29 July 2023
    View More
  • 15 July 2023
    View More
  • 12 July 2023
    View More
  • 6 July 2023
    View More
  • 29 June 2023
    View More
  • 27 June 2023
    View More
  • 26 June 2023
    View More
  • 6 Jun 2023
    View More
  • 31 May 2023
    View More
  • 30 May 2023
    View More
  • 25 May 2023
    View More
  • 23 May 2023
    View More
  • 22 May 2023
    View More
  • 12 May 2023
    View More
  • 11 May 2023
    View More
  • 4 May 2023
    View More
  • 27 April 2023
    View More
  • 20 April 2023
    View More
  • 18 April 2023
    View More
  • 16 April 2023
    View More
  • 13 April 2023
    View More
  • 8 April 2023
    View More
  • 6 April 2023
    View More
  • 22 March 2023
    View More
  • 15 March 2023
    View More
  • 24 January 2023
    View More
  • 17 January 2023
    View More
  • 13 January 2023
    View More
  • 13 January 2023
    View More
  • 10 January 2023
    View More
  • 20 December 2022
    View More
  • 1 December 2022
    View More
  • 11 November 2022
    View More
  • 12 October 2022
    View More
  • 11 October 2022
    View More
  • 6 October 2022
    View More
  • 21 September 2022
    View More
  • 19 September 2022
    View More
  • 17 September 2022
    View More
  • 15 September 2022
    View More
  • 11 September 2022
    View More
  • 22 August 2022
    View More
  • 19 August 2022
    View More
  • 5 August 2022
    View More
  • 1 August 2022
    View More
  • 26 July 2022
    View More
  • 20 July 2022
    View More
  • 19 July 2022
    View More
  • 18 July 2022
    View More
  • 18 July 2022
    View More
  • 13 July 2022
    View More
  • 5 July 2022
    View More
  • 2 July 2022
    View More
  • 30 June 2022
    View More
  • 29 June 2022
    View More
  • 23 June 2022
    View More
  • 6 June 2022
    View More
  • 2 June 2022
    View More
  • 26 May 2022
    View More
  • 25 May 2022
    View More
  • 20 May 2022
    View More
  • 19 May 2022
    View More
  • 17 May 2022
    View More
  • 16 May 2022
    View More
  • 9 May 2022
    View More
  • 9 May 2022
    View More
  • 29 April 2022
    View More
  • 25 April 2022
    View More
  • 4 April 2022
    View More
  • 24 March 2022
    View More
  • 4 March 2022
    View More
  • 18 February 2022
    View More
  • 17 February 2022
    View More
  • 16 February 2022
    View More
  • 8 February 2022
    View More
  • 6 February 2022
    View More
  • 2 February 2022
    View More
  • 31 January 2022
    View More
  • 21 January 2022
    View More
  • 18 January 2022
    View More
  • 4 January 2022
    View More
  • 26 December 2021
    View More
  • 7 December 2021
    View More
  • 16 November 2021
    View More
  • 9 November 2021
    View More
  • 31 October 2021
    View More
  • 28 October 2021
    View More
  • 14 October 2021
    View More
  • 11 October 2021
    View More
  • 7 October 2021
    View More
  • 7 October 2021
    View More
  • 30 September 2021
    View More
  • 29 September 2021
    View More
  • 27 September 2021
    View More
  • 23 September 2021
    View More
  • 21 September 2021
    View More
  • 21 September 2021
    View More
  • 17 September 2021
    View More
  • 16 September 2021
    View More
  • 13 September 2021
    View More
  • 9 September 2021
    View More
  • 6 September 2021
    View More
  • 3 September 2021
    View More
  • 27 August 2021
    View More
  • 24 August 2021
    View More
  • 23 August 2021
    View More
  • 19 August 2021
    View More
  • 12 August 2021
    View More
  • 12 August 2021
    View More
  • 10 August 2021
    View More
  • 9 August 2021
    View More
  • 6 August 2021
    View More
  • 5 August 2021
    View More
  • 4 August 2021
    View More
  • 19 July 2021
    View More
  • 16 July 2021
    View More
  • 15 July 2021
    View More
  • 14 July 2021
    View More
  • 10 July 2021
    View More
  • 6 July 2021
    View More
  • 25 June 2021
    View More
  • 24 June 2021
    View More
  • 8 June 2021
    View More
  • 26 May 2021
    View More
  • 25 May 2021
    View More
  • 21 May 2021
    View More
  • 20 May 2021
    View More
  • 19 May 2021
    View More
  • 17 May 2021
    View More
  • 14 May 2021
    View More
  • 13 May 2021
    View More
  • 11 May 2021
    View More
  • 27 April 2021
    View More
  • 20 April 2021
    View More
  • 16 April 2021
    View More
  • 13 April 2021
    View More
  • 18 March 2021
    View More
  • 18 March 2021
    View More
  • 8 March 2021
    View More
  • 22 February 2021
    View More
  • 16 February 2021
    View More
  • 8 February 2021
    View More
  • 3 February 2021
    View More
  • 1 February 2021
    View More
  • 1 February 2021
    View More
  • 26 January 2021
    View More
  • 22 January 2021
    View More
  • 2 January 2021
    View More
  • 29 December 2020
    View More
  • 27 December 2020
    View More
  • 25 December 2020
    View More
  • 22 December 2020
    View More
  • 2 December 2020
    View More
  • 30 November 2020
    View More
  • 18 November 2020
    View More
  • 11 November 2020
    View More
  • 10 November 2020
    View More
  • 9 November 2020
    View More
  • 6 November 2020
    View More
  • 5 November 2020
    View More
  • 28 October 2020
    View More
  • 22 October 2020
    View More
  • 22 October 2020
    View More
  • 20 October 2020
    View More
  • 14 October 2020
    View More
  • 1 October 2020
    View More
  • 29 September 2020
    View More
  • 26 September 2020
    View More
  • 17 September 2020
    View More
  • 17 September 2020
    View More
  • 17 September 2020
    View More
  • 15 September 2020
    View More
  • 14 September 2020
    View More
  • 10 September 2020
    View More
  • 8 September 2020
    View More
  • 31 August 2020
    View More
  • 30 August 2020
    View More
  • 25 August 2020
    View More
  • 22 August 2020
    View More
  • 19 August 2020
    View More
  • 18 August 2020
    View More
  • 14 August 2020
    View More
  • 14 August 2020
    View More
  • 12 August 2020
    View More
  • 10 August 2020
    View More
  • 10 August 2020
    View More
  • 6 August 2020
    View More
  • 6 August 2020
    View More
  • 2 August 2020
    View More
  • 29 July 2020
    View More
  • 28 July 2020
    View More
  • 27 July 2020
    View More
  • 26 July 2020
    View More
  • 26 July 2020
    View More
  • 24 July 2020
    View More
  • 20 July 2020
    View More
  • 19 July 2020
    View More
  • 15 July 2020
    View More
  • 8 July 2020
    View More
  • 7 July 2020
    View More
  • 29 June 2020
    View More
  • 29 June 2020
    View More
  • 28 June 2020
    View More
  • 26 June 2020
    View More
  • 25 June 2020
    View More
  • 21 June 2020
    View More
  • 16 June 2020
    View More
  • 10 June 2020
    View More
  • 10 June 2020
    View More
  • 7 June 2020
    View More
  • 27 May 2020
    View More
  • 24 May 2020
    View More
  • 20 May 2020
    View More
  • 13 May 2020
    View More
  • 13 May 2020
    View More
  • 9 May 2020
    View More
  • 7 May 2020
    View More
  • 2 May 2020
    View More
  • 30 April 2020
    View More
  • 17 April 2020
    View More
  • 15 April 2020
    View More
  • 15 April 2020
    View More
  • 14 April 2020
    View More
  • 10 April 2020
    View More
  • 7 April 2020
    View More
  • 19 March 2020
    View More
  • 26 February 2020
    View More
  • 16 February 2020
    View More
  • 12 February 2020
    View More
  • 11 February 2020
    View More
  • 9 February 2020
    View More
  • 22 January 2020
    View More
  • 22 January 2020
    View More
  • 20 January 2020
    View More
  • 19 January 2020
    View More
  • 17 January 2020
    View More
  • 12 January 2020
    View More
  • 5 January 2020
    View More
  • 3 January 2020
    View More
  • 2 January 2020
    View More
  • 23 December 2019
    View More
  • 23 December 2019
    View More
  • 17 December 2019
    View More
  • 16 December 2019
    View More
  • 14 December 2019
    View More
  • 13 December 2019
    View More
  • 11 December 2019
    View More
  • 10 December 2019
    View More
  • 4 December 2019
    View More
  • 4 December 2019
    View More
  • 2 December 2019
    View More
  • 2 December 2019
    View More
  • 1 December 2019
    View More
  • 29 November 2019
    View More
  • 27 November 2019
    View More
  • 26 November 2019
    View More
  • 22 November 2019
    View More
  • 22 November 2019
    View More
  • 21 November 2019
    View More
  • 14 November 2019
    View More
  • 13 November 2019
    View More
  • 11 November 2019
    View More
  • 8 November 2019
    View More
  • 7 November 2019
    View More
  • 6 November 2019
    View More
  • 5 November 2019
    View More
  • 1 November 2019
    View More
  • 31 October 2019
    View More
  • 31 October 2019
    View More
  • 30 October 2019
    View More
  • 30 October 2019
    View More
  • 29 October 2019
    View More
  • 28 October 2019
    View More
  • 28 October 2019
    View More
  • 19 October 2019
    View More
  • 20 September 2019
    View More
  • 18 September 2019
    View More
  • 16 September 2019
    View More
  • 13 September 2019
    View More
  • 12 September 2019
    View More
  • 12 September 2019
    View More
  • 11 September 2019
    View More
  • 10 September 2019
    View More
  • 10 September 2019
    View More
  • 9 September 2019
    View More
  • 9 September 2019
    View More
  • 6 September 2019
    View More
  • 4 September 2019
    View More
  • 3 September 2019
    View More
  • 3 September 2019
    View More
  • 2 September 2019
    View More
  • 31 August 2019
    View More
  • 30 August 2019
    View More
  • 30 August 2019
    View More
  • 29 August 2019
    View More
  • 29 August 2019
    View More
  • 27 August 2019
    View More
  • 26 August 2019
    View More
  • 26 August 2019
    View More
  • 25 August 2019
    View More
  • 23 August 2019
    View More
  • 21 August 2019
    View More
  • 21 August 2019
    View More
  • 20 August 2019
    View More
  • 20 August 2019
    View More
  • 16 August 2019
    View More
  • 15 August 2019
    View More
  • 19 July 2019
    View More
  • 18 July 2019
    View More
  • 17 July 2019
    View More
  • 10 July 2019
    View More
  • 9 July 2019
    View More
  • 8 July 2019
    View More
  • 1 July 2019
    View More
  • 19 June 2019
    View More
  • 12 June 2019
    View More
  • 11 June 2019
    View More
  • 11 June 2019
    View More
  • 5 June 2019
    View More
  • 2 June 2019
    View More
  • 31 May 2019
    View More
  • 31 May 2019
    View More
  • 30 May 2019
    View More
  • 29 May 2019
    View More
  • 29 May 2019
    View More
  • 9 May 2019
    View More
  • 2 May 2019
    View More
  • 1 May 2019
    View More
  • 29 April 2019
    View More
  • 25 April 2019
    View More
  • 25 April 2019
    View More
  • 24 April 2019
    View More
  • 24 April 2019
    View More
  • 22 April 2019
    View More
  • 22 April 2019
    View More
  • 18 April 2019
    View More
  • 15 April 2019
    View More
  • 11 April 2019
    View More
  • 10 April 2019
    View More
  • 6 April 2019
    View More
  • 2 April 2019
    View More
  • 1 April 2019
    View More
  • 28 March 2019
    View More
  • 26 March 2019
    View More
  • 25 March 2019
    View More
  • 25 March 2019
    View More
  • 23 March 2019
    View More
  • 22 March 2019
    View More
  • 22 March 2019
    View More
  • 22 March 2019
    View More
  • 21 March 2019
    View More
  • 13 March 2019
    Israel Foreign Ministry Twitter 
    View More
  • 8 March 2019
    View More
  • 7 March 2019
    View More
  • 25 February 2019
    View More
  • 19 February 2019
    View More
  • 13 February 2019
    View More
  • 13 February 2019
    View More
  • 11 February 2019
    View More
  • 10 February 2019
    View More
  • 6 February 2019
    View More
  • 6 February 2019
    View More
  • 5 February 2019
    View More
  • 3 February 2019
    View More
  • 31 January 2019
    View More
  • 29 January 2019
    View More
  • 27 January 2019
    View More
  • 26 January 2019
    View More
  • 23 January 2019
    View More
  • 15 January 2019
    View More
  • 13 January 2019
    View More
  • 13 January 2019
    View More
  • 10 January 2019
    View More
  • 3 January 2019
    View More
  • 28 December 2018
    View More
  • 26 December 2018
    View More
  • 25 December 2018
    View More
  • 23 December 2018
    View More
  • 20 December 2018
    View More
  • 19 December 2018
    View More
  • 19 December 2018
    View More
  • 18 December 2018
    View More
  • 16 December 2018
    View More
  • 12 December 2018
    View More
  • 12 December 2018
    View More
  • 11 December 2018
    View More
  • 11 December 2018
    View More
  • 10 December 2018
    View More
  • 10 December 2018
    View More
  • 9 December 2018
    View More
  • 9 December 2018
    View More
  • 6 December 2018
    View More
  • 5 December 2018
    View More
  • 4 December 2018
    View More
  • 4 December 2018
    View More
  • 3 December 2018
    View More
  • 30 November 2018
    View More
  • 29 November 2018
    View More
  • 13 November 2018
    View More
  • 13 November 2018
    View More
  • 13 November 2018
    View More
  • 10 November 2018
    View More
  • 29 October 2018
    View More
  • 25 October 2018
    View More
  • 14 October 2018
    View More
  • 14 October 2018
    View More
  • 4 October 2018
    View More
  • 29 September 2018
    View More
  • 27 September 2018
    View More
  • 27 September 2018
    View More
  • 20 September 2018
    View More
  • 20 September 2018
    View More
  • 19 September 2018
    View More
  • 12 September 2018
    View More
  • 4 September 2018
    View More
  • 3 September 2018
    View More
  • 26 August 2018
    View More
  • 18 August 2018
    View More
  • 16 August 2018
    View More
  • 14 August 2018
    View More
  • 11 July 2018
    View More
  • 8 July 2018
    View More
  • 5 July 2018
    View More
  • 25 June 2018
    View More
  • 25 June 2018
    View More
  • 24 June 2018
    View More
  • 11 June 2018
    View More
  • 6 June 2018
    View More
  • 25 May 2018
    View More
  • 24 May 2018
    View More
  • 21 May 2018
    View More
  • 18 May 2018
    View More
  • 16 May 2018
    View More
  • 15 May 2018
    View More
  • 14 May 2018
    View More
  • 7 May 2018
    View More
  • 1 May 2018
    View More
  • 15 April 2018
    View More
  • 13 April 2018
    View More
  • 13 April 2018
    View More
  • 12 April 2018
    View More
  • 27 March 2018
    View More
  • 8 March 2018
    View More
  • 19 February 2018
    View More
  • 2 February 2018
    View More
  • 28 January 2018
    View More
  • 5 December 2017
    View More
  • 28 November 2017
    View More
  • 25 November 2017
    View More
  • 22 November 2017
    View More
  • 21 November 2017
    View More
  • 15 November 2017
    View More
  • 12 November 2017
    View More
  • 6 November 2017
    View More
  • 4 November 2017
    View More
  • 4 November 2017
    ISRAELI DEFENCE MINISTER'S Twitter
    View More
  • 2 November 2017
    View More
  • 25 October 2017
    View More
  • 12 Lebanon 2023
    View More

Background

Lebanon is deeply fractured along clan, family, confessional, regional and social lines. It still bears the scars of a long and bloody civil war, and its politics still live by the rhythm of the Taef Accord brokered in Saudi Arabia in November 1989.

Hizbollah, created with Iranian help in the turmoil of Israel’s 1982 Lebanon invasion and occupation, for many years owed its popularity and growth to its championing of Lebanese Shiites’ cause without presenting itself as a sectarian actor, and to its adopting a nationalist and anti-imperialist rhetoric focused on Israel and the U.S. Since the 1990 end of the civil war, it has played a dual role of political party within the Lebanese system and armed resistance movement confronting Israel outside state structures. As a major node in the “axis of resistance”, Hizbollah plays a significant role for Iran’s policy of increasing strategic depth and asymmetric military capabilities to ward off external threats, mainly from Israel. The 2011 Syrian uprising and subsequent civil war led it to shed its predominantly Lebanese profile by projecting its power across the border and thrusting itself into a sectarian-coloured regional power struggle. Hizbollah’s intervention in Syria, and later reportedly in Yemen, thus changed the way other regional actors see the organisation. It has gone from a nuisance to Saudi interests and a threat to Israel, to a significant regional player in its own right, acting as one of Tehran’s key partners.

Inside Lebanon, politicians remain sharply divided over the role of Hizbollah, which has heavily contributed to a political stalemate leaving the country without a president since November 2022. The party’s rivals (some of which enjoy close relations with Riyadh) are determined to stop any presidential candidate who may further strengthen Hizbollah’s grip on state institutions. For its part, the pro-Hizbollah camp will not accept a candidate who is opposed to the party’s alignment with Iran and its stance of “resistance” toward Israel and its allies. There is little appetite for compromise on either side as Lebanon sinks further into a shattering economic crisis. Instead of political infighting, the country needs strong leadership to introduce IMF-mandated reforms and unlock a financial rescue package. Despite these dire circumstances, Lebanon’s stalemate is apparently not a major preoccupation for the foreign countries that could have the most influence, including Iran and Saudi Arabia.

The view from Washington is that Hizbollah is a terrorist organisation and an agent of Iranian influence across the Levant. The U.S. and its regional allies are concerned about what they suspect is an Iranian attempt to maintain a land corridor from Iran to Iraq to Syria to Lebanon that would enhance Tehran’s ability to ship arms to Hizbollah and its proxies in Syria. The U.S. has introduced series of sanctions against the group as part of a wider effort to confront Iran’s regional influence. Under the Biden administration, the U.S. has mediated a maritime border deal between Lebanon and Israel, but generally avoided wading into internal Lebanese politics. 

The view from Tehran is that Hizbollah, compared to other regional allies, holds an elevated position based on the depth of its relationship with Iran, its political influence in Lebanon and its military capabilities. Iran sees the relationship’s principal component to be Hizbollah’s role as a “forward defence” for itself, knowing it lacks the long-range capability to directly deter Israel from striking Iranian territory. Over the years, the patron-client relationship has evolved into one of mutual, albeit uneven, dependence. For Hizbollah, in turn, its access to Iran-supplied rockets provides a measure of protection against an Israeli military action.

The view from Jerusalem is that Hizbollah is a terrorist organization and that it must highlight the threat it faces from the group to rally outside support toward adopting a tougher line against Iran, while underscoring the costs of a confrontation to Lebanon. Israel has drawn at least three red lines regarding Hizbollah: over Iran’s transfer of sophisticated weapons to Hizbollah, Hizbollah massing fighters in southern Syria and Hizbollah’s attempt to build a Lebanon-based manufacturing capability for precision-guided missiles. Israel and Hizbollah have maintained effective mutual deterrence on the Lebanese border since 2006, though how long it can be sustained is unclear.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei Greeting Hizbollah Leader Hassan Nasrallah Khamenei.ir

III. Analysis

Spillover from Gaza War: The conflict in Gaza between Israel and Hamas that began in October 2023 has been a major test of the mutual deterrence that Hizbollah and Israel established after their last major military confrontation in 2006. Shortly after the start of the war, Hizbollah carried out an unprovoked attack in the disputed Shebaa Farms area, which Israeli forces occupy and where Israel and Hizbollah have exchanged fire in the past. In the following days, cross-border incursions by Palestinian groups drew Israeli fire that killed Hizbollah fighters, initiating an escalatory dynamic involving repeated cross-border exchanges. A Hizbollah spokesman said the group used these tactics to pursue several interrelated objectives. At the top of the list was tying down Israel’s military in the north and using the threat of a new front in the war to make Israel think twice about how much it escalated in Gaza. Hizbollah also sought to keep Washington focused on the possible expansion of the conflict, and the implication that the U.S. itself could be drawn into a years-long conflict in the Middle East, thus allowing Russia and China to deepen their influence in the region at its expense. Although Hizbollah said it would prefer to avoid a broader conflict, engaging in clashes at the Lebanon-Israel border left the country at constant threat of being drawn into punishing conflict with its southern neighbour.

Comrades in Arms: It is widely and reasonably assumed that Tehran largely covers Hizbollah’s financial and military outlay; Israeli estimates put Iranian support at $700 million a year. Reacting to U.S. sanctions in 2016, Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah declared: “Hizbollah’s budget, its income, its expenses, everything it eats and drinks, its weapons and rockets, come from the Islamic Republic of Iran… As long as Iran has money, we have money”. Support for Hizbollah is not a subject of serious debate in Tehran, and both Iranian and Hizbollah officials maintain that the group operates autonomously when it comes to domestic Lebanese politics. Moreover, this enduring reliance on Tehran should not be equated with compliance with Iran’s preferences on all fronts at all times. Iran’s decision to intervene in Syria, whose regime is a key ally, was also partly aimed at preserving Hizbollah, and executed at the party’s request, though some Iranian diplomats expressed concern about the war’s potential toll on Hizbollah’s reputation on the Arab street. Of course, Hizbollah’s survival is a vital Iranian interest, one they say has less to do with ideology or religion than with Iran’s need for regional support against Israel and the U.S., even if Iran and Hizbullah share adherence to the notion of vilayet-e fakih, rule by a senior cleric.

Poll Position? After the May 2022 parliamentary elections, Lebanon had a hung legislature, with no single bloc or alliance able to claim the majority. Hizbollah and its allies – chiefly the Shiite Amal Movement and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) – commanded 60 seats, meaning that at least on paper they have the most powerful bloc in parliament, while falling short of an absolute majority. The remaining 68 seats fell to the so-called opposition parties, a varied group that includes the FPM’s Christian rivals, the Lebanese Forces (LF) and Kataeb, as well as thirteen representatives of the civil society “change” movement and a scattering of independents. Since November 2022, Lebanon has been dealing with a presidential vacuum as the fragmented parliament has failed to select Michel Aoun’s successor. The vacuum has paralysed governance, leaving a weak caretaker government holding the reins of power, and further stalling the economic reforms on which the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has conditioned desperately needed assistance. Prolonged wrangling over the presidency can only compound Lebanon’s political, economic and social crises, which could create security incidents especially on a local level.

IV. Scenarios and Recommendations

Deterrence Frays: Hizbollah considers itself, along with Hamas, a member of the “axis of resistance”, an alliance of state and non-state actors opposed to Israel and the U.S. that also includes Iran, Syria, the Houthis in Yemen and a number of militant groups operating in Iraq and Syria. Hizbollah has emphasised close cooperation between the components of this alliance as a strategic objective in recent years, and party officials have routinely warned Israel – since well before the current crisis – that it may come to face a multi-front war. Such admonitions are a key element of Hizbollah’s deterrence posture. Still, despite the increase in cross-border hostilities with Israel since October 2023, both sides appear keen to stick to the established “rules of the game” – unwritten understandings about red lines neither should cross – to avoid an escalation. Yet things could turn deadly at any moment, either as a result of developments in Gaza or dynamics between Israel and Lebanon-based groups. Palestinian militants operating from Lebanese soil have already fired rockets at Israel and tried to breach the border, drawing Israeli shelling that has caused casualties, prompting Hizbollah to respond. Should additional clashes take Israeli lives, provoking a massive retaliation, the Shiite Islamist group would be in a very difficult position. Separately, Israeli operations in Gaza may transgress boundaries that induce Hizbollah to enter the fray, turning the Gaza war into a broader Middle Eastern conflict. External actors with Hizbollah’s ear should impress on the party, and Western countries on Israel, that opening a second front is in no one’s interest. Ultimately, the only way to rule out a slide into regional conflagration is a ceasefire in Gaza.

Red Lines and Escalation cycles: Actions by Iran and/or Hizbollah that challenge the Israeli red lines regarding weapons transfers to, and weapons production by, Hizbollah may lead to an Israeli military response in Lebanon, Syria or both. The third red line over Hizbollah’s presence in south-east Syria further heightens tensions. Israeli military action against Iran-backed forces in Syria and the region, or against Iran itself, may prompt Hizbollah to engage Israel directly, or work through allied groups (like Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad) to exert a price from Tel Aviv. For its part, Hizbollah is particularly sensitive to anything it perceives as a U.S.-led economic conspiracy against Lebanon, and flareups between Israel and the Palestinians, especially at Jerusalem’s holy sites.

While neither Israel nor Hizbollah seems interested in all-out confrontation, an unintended outcome to any of their low-level engagements (e.g., Israel killing a high-level Hizbollah operative of whose presence in a target location it wasn’t aware, or a non-precision rocket shot by an Hizbollah ally causing a high number of Israeli casualties) may trigger a cycle of escalation that becomes difficult to control.

No Provocation = No War: Israel and Hizbollah should refrain from testing the other sides’ limits. Hizbollah should consider limiting the build-up of precision-guided missiles that may provoke a pre-emptive Israeli response. It should cease undermining UNSCR resolution 1701, which halted hostilities in 2006 and helped stabilise the Lebanon-Israel border through its provocative presence in southern Lebanon, and actively discourage other armed groups active in Lebanon from engaging in action that could initiate an escalation. From its side, Israel should refrain from operating against Hizbollah on Lebanese soil, including through covert action, and should factor in the risk of an escalation at its northern border when calculating the cost and benefits of attacking Iranian assets.

Peacekeeping at the Border: Foreign actors should maintain the strength, mandate and the composition of UNIFIL, which serves as a conduit between the parties and thereby helps control escalation. As long as the force includes contingents from major European countries (France, Spain, Italy), its presence also guarantees that countries with weight in international institutions will pay intense attention to any building escalation, improving the chances that such situations can be contained.

Subscribe to Crisis Group’s Email Updates

Receive the best source of conflict analysis right in your inbox.