Flashpoint / Global 29 May 2023 Tehran Share Facebook Twitter Email Print Back to Map I. Why it Matters Iran is at a critical moment in its post-revolutionary history. As Ayatollah Khamenei’s succession looms, internal tensions are rising over the Islamic Republic’s fate with its unique combination of republican and theocratic features. Iran’s regional position has been ascendant since 2003, and even more so since 2011, with a string of successes for its allies and proxies. But what Tehran views as safeguarding its strategic depth, the U.S. and its allies see as evidence of a malign Iranian ambition for regional dominance. Under the Trump administration, a cycle pitting U.S. economic pressure against Iranian “maximum resistance” put the two sides on the brink of military confrontation, raised regional tensions and put the nuclear deal on a path to unravelling. More recently, however, Tehran has engaged in negotiations with the P4+1 and Washington toward rolling back U.S. sanctions in exchange for resuming its JCPOA commitments. II. Recent Developments 29 May 2023 The secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), Ali-Akbar Ahmadian, told his Iraqi counterpart that “we, within the framework of the [March] agreement, expect the Iraqi government to guarantee the security of the country’s borders with Iran as soon as possible, while ending the presence of counterrevolutionary elements in the country”. View More 29 May 2023 An Iranian official reported the arrest of fourteen individuals described as a “terrorist team affiliated with Israel”, who were allegedly “seeking to identify and assassinate [various] individuals”. View More 25 May 2023 State media reported the successful testing of a 2000km-range precision guided missile. On the sideline of the unveiling ceremony, Iran’s defence minister highlighted: “Our message to Iran's enemies is that we will defend the country and its achievements. Our message to our friends is that we want to help regional stability”. A U.S. diplomatic spokesperson reacted: “Iran’s development and proliferation of ballistic missiles poses a serious threat to regional and international security and remains a significant nonproliferation challenge. We continue to use a variety of nonproliferation tools, including sanctions, to counter the further advancement of Iran’s ballistic missile program and its ability to proliferate missiles and related technology to others”. “Iran continues to seek a range of missile technologies from foreign suppliers and to conduct ballistic missile tests in defiance of the [UNSC 2231] resolution”, he added. View More 24 May 2023 Asked about reports of Iran building an underground nuclear site in Natanz, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran remarked that “Iran operates according to the standards of the agency [ie, the IAEA] and safeguards, and whenever it wants to carry out an activity, it establishes its settings with the agency and acts accordingly”. View More 23 May 2023 Iran’s intelligence ministry announced it had uncovered a spy network alleged to have “been gathering data on Iranians leaving and entering the country, including those who worked in important government positions or had access to sensitive information in sensitive institutions”. View More 21 May 2023 Iran’s intelligence minister remarked that “with the cooperation of the new Iraqi government and the guarantees given, we hope to see security on the western borders… and emphasise the responsibility of the Iraqi [Kurdistan] region”. “If insecurity is created for the Islamic Republic”, he warned, “any action on the borders will be met with a decisive and overwhelming response”. View More 13 May 2023 Iran’s foreign ministry summoned Iraq’s ambassador over what it described as “the continuation of terrorist groups' movements in Iraq's Kurdistan region… contrary to the recent security agreement between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Iraq”. View More 12 May 2023 U.S. Naval Central Command announced that “U.S. 5th Fleet is working with regional allies and partners to increase the rotation of ships and aircraft patrolling in and around the Strait of Hormuz following Iran’s recent unlawful merchant vessel seizures”, in addition to “bolstering international maritime security collaboration among the International Maritime Security Construct and European Maritime Awareness in the Strait of Hormuz”. Iran’s diplomatic spokesperson on 17 May insisted that “the new accusations against Iran… are aimed at justifying the continuation or intensification of interventionist presence in the region”. He went on to assert that “the presence and destabilising actions of American forces double Iran’s responsibility in ensuring the security of the region and the Strait of Hormuz and in dealing with lawbreakers”, adding: “Iran considers the continued presence of foreign military forces in the waters of the Persian Gulf as a threat to the security of navigation in this strategic waterway”. View More 8 May 2023 Iran’s defence minister met with his Syrian counterpart, and expressed readiness “to cooperate with the Syrian Arab Republic in establishing factories and launching production lines of strategic defence equipment”. View More 4 May 2023 U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan remarked that “we are… engaging Iran diplomatically regarding its nuclear program, and we continue to believe that it was a tragic mistake to leave the deal with nothing at all to replace it. But we have made clear to Iran that it can never be permitted to obtain a nuclear weapon. As President Biden has repeatedly reaffirmed, he will take the actions that are necessary to stand by this statement, including by recognising Israel’s freedom of action”. He further explained that “on the deterrence side, working with our partners – including working very closely with Israel... we will continue to send a clear message about the costs and consequences of going too far, while at the same time continuing to seek the possibility of a diplomatically brokered outcome that puts Iran’s nuclear program back in the box”. “This is an issue that occupies the president’s attention, my attention, on a daily basis”, Sullivan added, while warning: “Iran’s program has advanced considerably. It is a genuine danger to regional security and to global security, and, indeed, to the U.S.”. The secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said that Sullivan’s remarks meant the “U.S. has been and will be responsible for all terrorist acts of Zionists [ie, Israel] against Iran's facilities and people, accepting its consequences”. View More 3 May 2023 President Raisi visited Syria and met with President Bashar al-Assad, asserting: “Just as the Islamic Republic stood by the Syrian government and nation in the fight against terrorism, it will also stand by its Syrian brothers in the field of development and progress". The two sides inked a “Comprehensive Program of Strategic and Long-Term Cooperation”, and fourteen other agreements in various fields, including oil and energy. Raisi, who described his trip within Iran’s ”framework of supporting the resistance”, also reiterated that “the presence of Americans in Syria not only does not create security, but also disrupts the security of Syria and the region. The faster the Americans leave Syria, the more secure Syria will be”. A U.S. diplomatic spokesperson maintained that “the Iranian regime and the Assad regime continuing to deepen their ties should be of great concern to not just our allies and partners and countries in the region, but also the world broadly”, adding: “We will not normalise relations with the Assad regime. And we do not support others normalising with Damascus either… The U.S. believes that a political solution that is outlined in UN Security Council Resolution 2254 is the only viable solution to this conflict in Syria”. The following day, Raisi met with Palestinians in Damascus, including Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad officials, insisting that “the unity and cohesion of the resistance forces, the region and the Islamic world is necessary to accelerate the defeat of the Zionist regime [ie, Israel] and the liberation of the Holy Quds and the sovereignty of the Palestinians over their destiny”. View More 26 April 2023 Iran’s diplomatic spokesperson rejected media reports of Iran sending to Russia “large quantities of… artillery shells and other ammunition across the Caspian Sea to resupply troops fighting in Ukraine”. View More 22 April 2023 Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei contended that “the Resistance Front and all Islamic countries should focus on strengthening the fighting elements inside Palestine”, arguing that the “decline [of Israel], which began a few years ago, has accelerated now and the Islamic world must take advantage of this great opportunity”. The same day, Foreign Minister Amirabdollahian spoke with senior Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad officials, expressing “Iran’s continued spiritual and political support for the Palestinian people and resistance in their struggle to liberate the occupied”. View More 20 April 2023 Iran’s navy commander claimed that an Iranian submarine had “detected an American nuclear-powered submarine that was cruising under escort in the Strait of Hormuz stealthily and forced it to surface and change its track” after approaching Iran’s territorial waters. The U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet rejected the claim as “absolutely false”, saying: “A U.S. submarine has not transited the Strait of Hormuz recently. The claim represents more Iranian disinformation that destabilises the region”. View More 20 April 2023 The IRGC announced that it had uncovered two “foreign-based terrorist groups” in south-western Iran, with two members of Jaish al-Adl arrested as “they were trying to sneak through the border” from Pakistan. The same day, a judiciary official confirmed that intelligence forces had detained a member of Mojahedin-e Khalq opposition group. View More 18 April 2023 G7 foreign ministers expressed “our clear determination that Iran must never develop a nuclear weapon, and urge[d] Iran to cease nuclear escalation”, which they indicated was coming “dangerously close to actual weapons-related activities”. They further underscored that “a diplomatic solution remains our preferred way”, and referred to the JCPOA as “a useful reference”. The ministers went on to note “grave concern regarding Iran's continued destabilising activities”, as well as “profound concern over Iran’s systematic human rights violations and abuses”. The following day, Iran’s foreign ministry characterised the accusations as “baseless and meddlesome”, urging the G7 countries to “adopt a realistic approach based on mutual respect, in which case, Iran will give a positive response”. View More 18 April 2023 President Raisi asserted that “the enemies of the Islamic revolution, especially the Zionist regime [ie, Israel], have received the message of the power of the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran that the slightest mistake against our country will be responded with a harsh response and will be accompanied by the destruction of Haifa and Tel Aviv”. View More 6 April 2023 Foreign Minister Amirabdollahian and his Saudi counterpart, Faisal bin Farhan, met in Beijing. Per a joint statement, “the two sides discussed the importance of activating and pursuing the implementation of the [March 2023] Beijing Agreement, thus enhancing mutual trust and expanding cooperation, and contributing to realising security, stability and prosperity in the region”. They also “agreed to reopen their diplomatic missions within the agreed period, proceed with the necessary measures to open the embassies of the two countries in Riyadh and Tehran, and their consulates general in Jeddah and Mashhad, and continue coordination between the two sides' technical teams to explore ways of boosting cooperation” in different areas. View More 5 April 2023 Iranian media reported that a defence ministry facility in Isfahan had been “the target of a failed attack by a small drone which was foiled by defence systems”; Iran’s interior minister did not confirm the report, saying: “It needs verification”. View More 3 April 2023 Iran’s UN ambassador wrote to the Security Council condemning U.S. 23 March strikes in Syria, and maintaining that Iran had “never been involved, directly or indirectly, in any attacks against the U.S. military forces in Syria and Iraq”. He called on the U.S. to “end its illegal occupation” of Syrian territory, while maintaining: “Iran’s presence in Syria is fully legal and is based on a formal request and consent from the Syrian government to provide assistance and support in the fight against terrorism. The Islamic Republic of Iran reserves its inherent right to self-defence under international law and will take decisive measures to protect its forces, interests and facilities from any threat or unlawful act perpetrated by the U.S. or others”. View More 2 April 2023 Iran’s Navy reported that it had “identified and warned off a U.S. spy aircraft after it entered the country’s borders near the Sea of Oman”. View More 31 March 2023 Syrian state media reported Israeli airstrikes “targeting a site in Damascus countryside”. Iran’s IRGC confirmed the death of two IRGC personnel during the attack, pledging revenge against Israel. View More 29 March 2023 Foreign Minister Eli Cohen said that he and his Azeri counterpart had “agreed on forming a united front in the face of Iran… We must work together to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear capability and will be best achieve that goal through political and economic means, while a credible military threat is understood”. Iran’s diplomatic spokesperson characterised the statement as “another piece of evidence proving the Zionist regime’s [Israel’s] evil intentions to turn the Republic of Azerbaijan’s territory into a threat against the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran… Iran cannot remain indifferent to the conspiracy that the Zionist regime advances against it from the territory of the Republic of Azerbaijan”. View More 25 March 2023 The spokesperson for Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) warned that “any pretext for attacking the bases created at the request of the Syrian government to fight with terrorism and ISIL[/ISIS] operatives in that country will be immediately met with a reciprocal response… Iran has suffered a lot in the battle against foreign-backed terrorism to reestablish durable security in Syria, and it opposes any action that endangers the stability of that country”. He also claimed that “the U.S. role in creating and supporting ISIL as a proxy in line with its political objectives in Syria and Iraq is evident… In the past two days, American helicopters with several sorties have transferred ISIL terrorists in Syria with the aim of increasing instability in the country, something that they have to be held to account for”. View More 23 March 2023 The Pentagon announced it had carried out airstrikes in eastern Syria targeting what it described as "facilities used by groups affiliated with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)" in response to a UAV attack that killed a U.S. contractor; six others (one contractor and five service members) were injured. It further noted that "the intelligence community assess the UAV to be of Iranian origin". The following day, U.S. Central Command reported that a compound housing troops from the U.S.-led counter-ISIS coalition had been targeted with ten rockets. There were no injuries or damages at the facility, but four civilians were wounded in the attack. A U.S. service member was injured in a separate incident at Mission Support Site Conoco. President Biden asserted that “the U.S. does not… seek conflict with Iran, but be prepared for us to act forcefully to protect our people”. On 25 March, Iran’s diplomatic spokesperson condemned the U.S. strikes against what he described as “civilian targets”, rejected U.S. allegations against Iran and emphasised that “Iran’s military advisors are in Syria at the request of the Syrian government for the purpose of helping the country in its struggle against terrorism”. View More 22 March 2023 A senior Iranian diplomat confirmed that he had met with British, French and German diplomats in Oslo and discussed “a range of issues of mutual interest and concern”. “We spare no opportunity to clarify our views and warn against certain miscalculations”, he emphasised. View More 22 March 2023 Foreign Minister Amirabdollahian and his Saudi counterpart spoke and decided “to hold a bilateral meeting soon to pave the way for the reopening of embassies and consulates”. View More 21 March 2023 Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei warned about what he described as “hybrid warfare” against Iran and maintained: “There is no military attack… But foreign propagandists and their followers in the country attack the political and religious beliefs of the people… the enemy uses the media and cultural, security, and economic elements as well as its influence”. He further insisted: “During recent unrest, U.S. president and heads of states of certain European countries openly offered weapons and financial and security support to rioters”. Khamenei went on to “categorically deny any presence in the Ukraine war”. View More 19 March 2023 Foreign Minister Amirabdollahian stated that “an agreement was reached two months ago for Iranian and Bahraini technical delegations to visit the embassies of the two countries. We hope that some obstacles between Iran and Bahrain will be removed and we will take basic steps to reopen the embassies”. View More 19 March 2023 Iranian Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) secretary Ali Shamkhani signed a security agreement in Iraq which, according to Iranian state media, would “have a decisive impact on reducing and managing the unwanted security challenges between the two states, which are caused due to the mischief of anti-Islamic establishment elements residing in Iraq’s Kurdistan region”. Shamkhani told his counterpart that “the careful implementation of such an agreement will lead to a significant decrease in terrorist threats and border insecurity, and prepare the ground for fostering bilateral ties in security, economic and political fields more than ever before”. Separately, he told Prime Minister al-Sudani that “a united, integrated and powerful Iraq is the pillar of stability in the region”, adding: “We should not allow the two countries’ interests to fall victim to the U.S.’s mischief and its terrorist mercenaries”. The following day, Shamkhani announced “a new arrangement to use Iranian funds that remain blocked in Iraq because of U.S. sanctions… The funds will be used to purchase basic goods and to settle payments owed by Iranian merchants to trade partners in Iraq”. View More 14 March 2023 Iran’s diplomatic spokesperson remarked that “the promotion of relations with regional countries, including Bahrain, is among the [Iranian] administration’s policies”, adding: “In view of a promising prospect, we can witness the realisation of new conditions in relations with the regional countries, including Bahrain… We are witnessing good diplomatic moves in this regard as well. Parliamentary diplomacy has also been almost activated in this regard”. View More 13 March 2023 The UN’s special envoy for Yemen met Foreign Minister Amirabdollahian and other senior Iranian officials in Tehran, conferring on “the need for regional support for the start of an inclusive, Yemeni-led political process under UN auspices to sustainably end the conflict”. Amirabdollahian emphasised that “Iran supports the continuation of the ceasefire in Yemen… [and] any negotiations which would help establish peace and stability in Yemen”. View More 12 March 2023 Foreign Minister Amirabdollahian claimed that Iran and the U.S. had “reached an agreement in the recent days and everything goes well on the U.S. side, I think we will witness a prisoner exchange in a short period”. However, the following day White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan emphasised that “there’s no deal. And the last thing that we want to do is give false hope to families that have been waiting for a long time for their loved ones to come home”. View More 10 March 2023 Following talks in Beijing, Iran, Saudi Arabia and China jointly announced an agreement between Tehran and Riyadh to “resume diplomatic relations… and re-open their embassies and missions within a period not exceeding two months, and the agreement includes their affirmation of the respect for the sovereignty of states and non-interference in internal affairs of states”. A White House spokesperson indicated that “if this deal can be sustained… and the war in Yemen can end, and Saudi Arabia doesn’t have to continually try to defend itself against attacks from the Huthis who are funded and supported by Iran, in the end we welcome that”. View More 6 March 2023