Flashpoint / Global 28 Jan 2023 Tehran Share Facebook Twitter Email Print Back to Map I. Why it Matters Iran is at a critical moment in its post-revolutionary history. As Ayatollah Khamenei’s succession looms, internal tensions are rising over the Islamic Republic’s fate with its unique combination of republican and theocratic features. Iran’s regional position has been ascendant since 2003, and even more so since 2011, with a string of successes for its allies and proxies. But what Tehran views as safeguarding its strategic depth, the U.S. and its allies see as evidence of a malign Iranian ambition for regional dominance. Under the Trump administration, a cycle pitting U.S. economic pressure against Iranian “maximum resistance” put the two sides on the brink of military confrontation, raised regional tensions and put the nuclear deal on a path to unravelling. More recently, however, Tehran has engaged in negotiations with the P4+1 and Washington toward rolling back U.S. sanctions in exchange for resuming its JCPOA commitments. II. Recent Developments 28 January 2023 Iran’s Defence Ministry acknowledged an attack against what was described as a “military workshop” in Isfahan using micro aerial vehicles, asserting that it had “caused no disruption to the equipment and operations of the complex”. A Pentagon spokesperson denied U.S. military involvement in the strike, while media reports widely suggested an Israeli role. View More 24 January 2023 IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi stated that Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile was sufficient for “several nuclear weapons”, adding: “That doesn’t mean they have a nuclear weapon. So they haven’t proliferated yet”. Grossi also described the JCPOA as “an empty shell”, and went on to assert that “nobody has declared it dead, but no obligation is being pursued, and… every limit that existed in the JCPOA has been violated several time”. View More 18 January 2023 IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi remarked that “I’m expecting to get a better engagement from the Iranian authorities. It’s been difficult these past few months. We have not been getting responses … I hope to be able to visit Iran and to reset what needs to be a relationship based on trust which is faulting at this point in time”. He further maintained that “Iran has been getting more last generation centrifuges, is accumulating more material at five, 20 and 60 per cent enrichment which is quite close to weapon-grade… These are all factors that as I have been telling my Iranian counterparts are… configurating a situation that is getting more and more complex as time passes”. Grossi added: “It’s getting also more difficult for us to ascertain the situation there because our visibility in the Islamic Republic has been reduced because of the disconnection of some of our cameras and other systems that we had… We need to sit down at the highest possible political level to talk honestly and agree that this cannot continue”. View More 13 January 2023 Foreign Minister Amirabdollahian opined that “Saudi Arabia is still not ready to return to normal relations. We have the needed intention and will to normalise with Saudi Arabia. If such an intention is seen in the real sense on the Saudi side, the normalisation of relations will be quick and achievable”. View More 10 January 2023 The intelligence ministry announced that it had uncovered what it described as “two espionage and terrorist teams linked with the Mossad”, detaining more than a dozen individuals who allegedly “planned to murder a military official and carry out several acts of sabotage in major cities”. View More 3 January 2023 Iran’s UN envoy wrote to the secretary-general and president of the Security Council regarding what he described as Israel’s “inflammatory and belligerent statements threatening to use force against Iran’s peaceful nuclear program”, stating that: “Iran reserves its legitimate right… to respond to any threat posed by the Israeli regime and protect its people as well as national security interests at any time it deems appropriate”. View More 2 January 2023 The intelligence ministry announced the arrest of what it claimed were “members of a network that were financing and providing assistance to the MKO [Mojahedin-e Khalq opposition group] operational teams inside the country”. View More 20 December 2022 Foreign Minister Amirabdollahian met with EU High Representative Josep Borrell, who described the meeting as “necessary… amidst deteriorating Iran-EU relations”. Borrell said he had “stressed [the] need [for Iran] to immediately stop military support to Russia and internal repression”, adding: “Agreed we must keep communication open and restore JCPOA on basis of Vienna negotiations”. View More 20 December 2022 Foreign Minister Amirabdollahian asserted that while attending the Baghdad II summit in Jordan, he had met with his Saudi counterpart, who reiterated Riyadh’s readiness “to continue negotiation with Iran”. View More 19 December 2022 The UN under-secretary-general presented the fourteen biannual report, dated 12 December, on Security Council Resolution 2231’s implementation. The U.S. representative told the Security Council that “the door for diplomacy remains open. Unfortunately, Iran’s actions suggest this goal is not their priority. Iran’s conduct since September… reinforce our skepticism about Iran’s willingness and capability of reaching a deal and explains why there have been no active negotiations since then”. He also called Iran’s transfer of drones to Russia a violation of Resolution 2231 and maintained: “Given Iran’s increasing integration into Russia’s defense sector, we fear additional violations in the future. Russia may even be tempted to further violate Resolution 2231 by importing complete ballistic missiles from Iran”. Iran’s envoy reiterated readiness “to resume the Vienna talks… if the U.S. demonstrates genuine political will and stands ready to work towards a satisfying solution and agrees to fully comply with its obligations. The U.S. now has the ball in its court”. On the issue of drone transfers, he emphasised that “Iran has not transferred to Russia, any item that is covered by… resolution 2231”. View More 19 December 2022 Foreign Minister Amirabdollahian remarked that “irresponsible and arbitrary positions and interventions of the U.S. and some [other] Western countries... which were aimed at inciting riots [ie, anti-government protests] in Iran through political means as well as cognitive, media and hybrid forms of warfare represented their maximum effort to destabilise the country… Iran has warned meddlesome parties against any intervention in its domestic affairs and is carefully observing such illegitimate interventions and will give a strong response to them”. View More 19 December 2022 The IRGC announced that a senior officer, along with three Basij members, were killed in south east Iran during “a fierce exchange of fire with counterrevolutionary elements”, who, according to the statement, “had to flee toward Pakistan”. View More 19 December 2022 An IAEA delegation visited Tehran and met with the head of the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran (AEOI) and other senior officials, discussing, per an Iranian readout, “the safeguard issues, cooperation fields and the coming mutual programs”. View More 16 December 2022 Asked about Iran’s role in Russia’s war against Ukraine, CIA Director Bill Burns assessed that “what’s beginning to emerge is at least the beginnings of a full-fledged defence partnership between Russia and Iran, with the Iranians supplying drones to the Russians, which are killing Ukrainian civilians as we speak today, and the Russians beginning to look at ways in which, technologically or technically, they can support the Iranians, which poses real threats to Iran’s own neighbourhood, to many of our friends and partners in Iran’s neighbourhood as well”. Iran’s diplomatic spokesperson subsequently described the claims as a “propaganda war…based on lies and deception”. View More 14 December 2022 A majority in the UN’s Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) voted in favor of a U.S.-led move to remove Iran from the Commission on the Status of Women. Iran’s diplomatic spokesperson condemned the move as part of a “psychological war” against the government. View More 10 December 2022 Foreign Minister Amirabdollahian affirmed that “the three islands of Abu Musa, Greater Tunb and Lesser Tunb in the Persian Gulf are inseparable parts of Iranian soil and eternally belong to this motherland. We have no qualms about the necessity of other parties respecting Iran’s territorial integrity”. His remarks came in response to a joint GCC-China statement that had expressed “support for all peaceful efforts, including the initiative and endeavours of the United Arab Emirates to reach a peaceful solution to the [sovereignty] issue of the three islands”. View More 8 December 2022 Discussing sites subject to an IAEA safeguards investigation, the head of Iran’s atomic energy agency maintained that evidence of past nuclear activity did “not mean the place of discovery was a nuclear site or that it was an undeclared nuclear activity... They were not nuclear substances from our own manufacturing but perhaps traces from previous use in the country of origin”. View More 6 December 2022 The intelligence ministry announced the arrest of ten individuals it linked to the Mojahedin-e Khalq opposition group who allegedly “carried out terrorist attacks and numerous mortar attacks” in the course of anti-government protests. View More 4 December 2022 The judiciary announced the execution of four individuals arrested in June and convicted on accusations of links to Israeli intelligence. View More 3 December 2022 The Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran (AEOI) began construction of a new nuclear power plant in south-west Iran. The head of the agency remarked that “the government is moving towards the production of low-cost energy and fuel; therefore, the development of nuclear power plants is on the agenda of this organisation”. View More 2 December 2022 IAEA General Director Rafael Grossi remarked that “we don’t seem to be seeing eye-to-eye with Iran over their obligations to the IAEA… We need to put our relationship back on track”. He further noted that “Iran informed us they were tripling, not doubling, tripling their capacity to enrich uranium at 60 per cent, which is very close to military level, which is 90 per cent”, warning: “This is not banal. This is something that has consequences. It gives them an inventory of nuclear material for which it cannot be excluded ... that there might be another use. We need to go [to Iran]. We need to verify”. View More 29 November 2022 Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei told Iraqi Prime Minister al-Sudani that efforts to undermine Iran’s security were “currently taking place in some areas of Iraq. The only solution is for the Iraqi central government to extend its authority to those areas as well”. He added: “If any party intends to disrupt the country’s security, we will stand up firmly in front of any party seeking to undermine Iraq’s security… Iraq’s security is Iran’s security, in the same way that Iran’s security also has an effect on the security of Iraq”. According to an Iraqi readout, the premier emphasised that “the government is committed to the Iraqi constitution, which prohibits making Iraq a launchpad for aggression against its neighbours”. The same day, President Raisi, during a joint press conference with al-Sudani, asserted: “The presence of outsiders does not bring security at all, but causes many problems for the region… Definitely, the withdrawal of the Americans from the region will lead to an increase in peace, stability and security”. View More 26 November 2022 An Iranian news agency said it had been the subject of a “complex hacking and cyberattack operation”, adding: “cyberattacks against Fars news agency are carried out almost daily from different countries, including the occupied territories [Israel]”. View More 26 November 2022 Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei contended that “negotiations will not solve our problems with America. Only one thing would solve our problem with America and that is paying ransom to America, but not just one ransom, they are demanding permanent ransom”. View More 24 November 2022 The UN Human Rights Council voted to launch a fact-finding mission investigating “alleged human rights violations in the Islamic Republic of Iran related to the protests that began on 16 September”. The U.S., which was among the 25 countries voting in favour (six were against, and fifteen abstained) emphasised: “It is also important that the international community work in partnership to ensure that Iran plays no role on UN or other international bodies charged with protecting and promoting human rights of women”. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson on 28 November declared the government would “not engage in any cooperation, whatsoever, with the political committee called the ‘fact-finding committee’”. View More 23 November 2022 The IRGC announced that a colonel “serving as a military adviser in Syria, was martyred by the Zionist regime’s [ie, Israel’s] agents through a roadside bomb near Damascus”. It added that there would “undoubtedly” be a response. View More 22 November 2022 In reaction to a 17 November IAEA censure resolution on Iran’s lack of safeguards cooperation with the agency, the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran announced that enrichment to 60 per cent had commenced at the bunkered Fordow enrichment facility, along with additional deployment of advanced centrifuges at both the Fordow and Natanz nuclear facilities. View More 22 November 2022 The IRGC carried out missile and drone strikes against Kurdish opposition groups near Kikuk. The U.S. denounced the “repeated and brazen violations of Iraq’s territorial integrity” and urged “Iran to refrain from further threats and violence”. The same day, Iran’s ambassador to Iraq claimed that “some of our vital military centers have been attacked from the Iraqi Kurdistan region’s soil and we have informed the Iraqi side, both the authorities of the Iraqi Kurdistan region and the central government in Iraq, of this issue. We [provided them] with maps and documents”. Too, a senior IRGC commander emphasised that “the attack on the headquarters and bases of armed criminals and terrorist groups will continue until the threat is eliminated”. View More 21 November 2022 IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi remarked that “at the current level of production of this enriched uranium, Iran has accumulated already enough material to have more than one [nuclear] device, if they chose to do that. But we don’t have any information that would indicate that Iran has a nuclear weapon program at the moment… We haven’t reached that point. But we need to work very hard so we don’t get there”. View More 20 November 2022 The IRGC renewed missile and drone operations against Kurdish separatist groups in northern Iraq. The following day it stated that it had been bolstering its presence in north-western Iran “following the movements of villains and anti-Iran separatist terrorist groups… and the creation of villainy and insecurity in some areas”, while highlighting “the security of the region and the honorable and valiant people of the border provinces of the north west as our red line”. The Kurdistan Regional government condemned the attack in “the strongest terms… Iran’s repeated violations of the sovereignty of Iraq and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq are inexcusable and a gross infringement of international law and neighbourly relations”. The U.S.-led counter-ISIS coalition denounced the strikes and emphasised: “These attacks place innocent civilians at risk. Such acts jeopardise the security and stability of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region”. View More 18 November 2022 The IRGC reported the arrest of a purported “terrorist team… trying to smuggle weapons and ammunition into the country”. View More 17 November 2022 With 26 votes in favour and two against, the IAEA Board of Governors adopted a U.S/E3 drafted resolution noting “profound concern” over the lack of progress in the IAEA’s safeguards probes, and deeming it “essential and urgent in order to ensure verification of the non-diversion of nuclear material that Iran act to fulfil its legal obligations without delay”. Iran’s IAEA envoy condemned the resolution as “a political, unconstructive and incorrect action”, insisting: “The political goals of the founders of this anti-Iranian resolution will not be realised, but its approval can affect the process of cooperation and constructive interactions between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the IAEA”. View More 16 November 2022 IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi told the Board of Governors that limited monitoring and verification in Iran “will have a significant impact on the Agency’s ability to recover and re-establish the necessary continuity of knowledge in the event of a full resumption of implementation by Iran of its nuclear-related commitments under the JCPOA. Any future baseline for such JCPOA verification and monitoring activities would take a considerable time to establish and would have a degree of uncertainty. The longer the current situation persists the greater such uncertainty becomes”. Grossi also shared “serious concern that there has been no progress in clarifying and resolving the outstanding safeguards issues”, adding: “I hope that the planned technical meeting between the Agency and Iran takes place, but I want to stress that this meeting should be aimed at effectively clarifying and resolving those issues”. The head of Iran’s atomic agency the same day indicated that “for now no trip by the agency is on the agenda”, and, referring to a U.S./E3 draft censure resolution, asserted: “If they had goodwill and they want to continue negotiations, they would not have offered such a resolution”. View More 15 November 2022 The U.S. 5th Fleet revealed that on 8 November it interdicted a vessel “in the Gulf of Oman smuggling lethal aid, including a large quantity of explosive material, from Iran to Yemen”; the four Yemeni crewmembers were repatriated and the ship sunk. A U.S. commander maintained that the 70 tonnes of ammonium perchlorate found abroad “was a massive amount of explosive material, enough to fuel more than a dozen medium-range ballistic missiles depending on the size”. The U.S. statement also highlighted that “the direct or indirect supply, sale or transfer of weapons to the Huthis violates UN Security Council Resolution 2216 and international law”. Iran maintained it had “not taken any action against the resolution, and is actively cooperating with the sanctions committee formed to oversee the arms embargo”. View More 15 November 2022 The U.S. sanctioned “six senior employees of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), the Iranian state-run media corporation that has broadcast hundreds of fo