icon caret Arrow Down Arrow Left Arrow Right Arrow Up Line Camera icon set icon set Ellipsis icon set Facebook Favorite Globe Hamburger List Mail Map Marker Map Microphone Minus PDF Play Print RSS Search Share Trash Crisiswatch Alerts and Trends Box - 1080/761 Copy Twitter Video Camera  copyview Whatsapp Youtube
Flashpoint / Global

Bab al-Mandab, Yemen

I. Why it Matters

In March 2015, Saudi Arabia began a military intervention in Yemen against a coalition of forces affiliated with former President Ali Abdullah Saleh and Huthi rebels that had seized power from President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi two months earlier. Riyadh views the Huthis as Iranian proxies, and was deeply alarmed when they and Saleh’s forces subsequently moved south and captured Aden, Yemen’s second largest city. (Saleh split from the Huthis, who then killed him, in December 2017). Tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia are rising as the Huthis launch missiles towards Saudi at a growing tempo, using technology and knowledge likely provided or enhanced by Tehran. The U.S. has declared its intent to push back against Iran’s regional influence, and has offered limited but important assistance to the Saudi-led coalition’s military campaign against the Huthis. An escalation in Yemen – including a successful Huthi missile strike on a Saudi or Emirati city – could lead to an escalatory cycle between Riyadh and Tehran and even act as a trigger for a direct U.S.-Iranian confrontation.  

II. Recent Developments

  • 4 June 2021
    View More
  • 31 May 2021
    View More
  • 29 May 2021
    View More
  • 29 May 2021
    View More
  • 27 May 2021
    View More
  • 25 May 2021
    View More
  • 24 May 2021
    View More
  • 23 May 2021
    View More
  • 23 May 2021
    View More
  • 21 May 2021
    View More
  • 20 May 2021
    View More
  • 19 May 2021
    View More
  • 18 May 2021
    View More
  • 18 May 2021
    View More
  • 13 May 2021
    View More
  • 12 May 2021
    View More
  • 10 May 2021
    View More
  • 8 May 2021
    View More
  • 8 May 2021
    View More
  • 7 May 2021
    View More
  • 3 MAy 2021
    View More
  • 3 May 2021
    View More
  • 2 May 2021
    View More
  • 1 May 2021
    View More
  • 29 April 2021
    View More
  • 28 April 2021
    View More
  • 28 April 2021
    View More
  • 27 April 2021
    View More
  • 27 April 2021
    View More
  • 27 April 2021
    View More
  • 25 April 2021
    View More
  • 23 April 2021
    View More
  • 23 April 2021
    View More
  • 22 April 2021
    View More
  • 22 April 2021
    View More
  • 21 April 2021
    View More
  • 20 April 2021
    View More
  • 20 April 2021
    View More
  • 18 April 2021
    View More
  • 16 April 2021
    View More
  • 15 April 2021
    View More
  • 13 April 2021
    View More
  • 13 April 2021
    View More
  • 11 April 2021
    View More
  • 10 April 2021
    View More
  • 9 April 2021
    View More
  • 8 April 2021
    View More
  • 7 April 2021
    View More
  • 6 April 2021
    View More
  • 4 April 2021
    View More
  • 3 April 2021
    View More
  • 1 April 2021
    View More
  • 31 March 2021
    View More
  • 30 March 2021
    View More
  • 28 March 2021
    View More
  • 26 March 2021
    View More
  • 25 March 2021
    View More
  • 24 March 2021
    View More
  • 23 March 2021
    View More
  • 23 March 2021
    View More
  • 22 March 2021
    View More
  • 21 March 2021
    View More
  • 20 March 2021
    View More
  • 19 March 2021
    View More
  • 18 March 2021
    View More
  • 18 March 2021
    View More
  • 17 March 2021
    View More
  • 17 March 2021
    View More
  • 16 March 2021
    View More
  • 16 March 2021
    View More
  • 15 March 2021
    View More
  • 14 March 2021
    View More
  • 14 March 2021
    View More
  • 12 March 2021
    View More
  • 11 March 2021
    View More
  • 11 March 2021
    View More
  • 10 March 2021
    View More
  • 10 March 2021
    View More
  • 7 March 2021
    View More
  • 6 March 2021
    View More
  • 5 March 2021
    View More
  • 4 March 2021
    View More
  • 3 March 2021
    View More
  • 2 March 2021
    View More
  • 2 March 2021
    View More
  • 2 March 2021
    View More
  • 1 March 2021
    View More
  • 28 February 2021
    View More
  • 26 February 2021
    View More
  • 26 February 2021
    View More
  • 25 February 2021
    View More
  • 25 February 2021
    View More
  • 18 February 2021
    View More
  • 17 February 2021
    View More
  • 16 February 2021
    View More
  • 15 February 2021
    View More
  • 14 February 2021
    View More
  • 13 February 2021
    View More
  • 12 February 2021
    View More
  • 12 February 2021
    View More
  • 11 February 2021
    View More
  • 10 February 2021
    View More
  • 8 February 2021
    View More
  • 7 February 2021
    View More
  • 7 February 2021
    View More
  • 6 February 2021
    View More
  • 5 February 2021
    View More
  • 4 February 2021
    View More
  • 30 January 2021
    View More
  • 27 January 2021
    View More
  • 23 January 2021
    View More
  • 22 January 2021
    View More
  • 19 January 2021
    View More
  • 15 January 2021
    View More
  • 14 January 2021
    View More
  • 13 January 2021
    View More
  • 10 January 2021
    View More
  • 6 January 2021
    View More
  • 6 January 2021
    View More
  • 31 December 2020
    View More
  • 30 December 2020
    View More
  • 25 December 2020
    View More
  • 25 December 2020
    View More
  • 21 December 2020
    View More
  • 19 December 2020
    View More
  • 18 December 2020
    View More
  • 17 December 2020
    View More
  • 15 December 2020
    View More
  • 14 December 2020
    View More
  • 14 December 2020
    View More
  • 10 December 2020
    View More
  • 9 December 2020
    View More
  • 9 December 2020
    View More
  • 8 December 2020
    View More
  • 7 December 2020
    View More
  • 4 December 2020
    View More
  • 4 December 2020
    View More
  • 30 November 2020
    View More
  • 27 November 2020
    View More
  • 25 November 2020
    View More
  • 24 November 2020
    View More
  • 23 November 2020
    View More
  • 22 November 2020
    View More
  • 18 November 2020
    View More
  • 13 November 2020
    View More
  • 12 November 2020
    View More
  • 11 November 2020
    View More
  • 11 November 2020
    View More
  • 9 November 2020
    View More
  • 5 November 2020
    View More
  • 2 November 2020
    View More
  • 29 October 2020
    View More
  • 28 October 2020
    View More
  • 28 October 2020
    View More
  • 27 October 2020
    View More
  • 26 October 2020
    View More
  • 25 October 2020
    View More
  • 23 October 2020
    View More
  • 20 October 2020
    View More
  • 18 October 2020
    View More
  • 17 October 2020
    View More
  • 16 October 2020
    View More
  • 14 October 2020
    View More
  • 14 October 2020
    View More
  • 14 October 2020
    View More
  • 13 October 2020
    View More
  • 10 October 2020
    View More
  • 7 October 2020
    View More
  • 6 October 2020
    View More
  • 6 October 2020
    View More
  • 5 October 2020
    View More
  • 27 September 2020
    View More
  • 27 September 2020
    View More
  • 23 September 2020
    View More
  • 23 September 2020
    View More
  • 22 September 2020
    View More
  • 22 September 2020
    View More
  • 19 September 2020
    View More
  • 17 September 2020
    View More
  • 10 September 2020
    View More
  • 9 September 2020
    View More
  • 8 September 2020
    View More
  • 8 September 2020
    View More
  • 6 September 2020
    View More
  • 4 September 2020
    View More
  • 31 August 2020
    View More
  • 30 August 2020
    View More
  • 28 August 2020
    View More
  • 27 August 2020
    View More
  • 26 August 2020
    View More
  • 22 August 2020
    View More
  • 20 August 2020
    View More
  • 20 August 2020
    View More
  • 15 August 2020
    View More
  • 13 August 2020
    View More
  • 12 August 2020
    View More
  • 6 August 2020
    View More
  • 29 July 2020
    View More
  • 21 July 2020
    View More
  • 14 July 2020
    View More
  • 12 July 2020
    View More
  • 9 July 2020
    View More
  • 9 July 2020
    View More
  • 8 July 2020
    View More
  • 3 July 2020
    View More
  • 1 July 2020
    View More
  • 30 June 2020
    View More
  • 29 June 2020
    View More
  • 29 June 2020
    View More
  • 25 June 2020
    View More
  • 22 June 2020
    View More
  • 16 June 2020
    View More
  • 16 June 2020
    View More
  • 15 June 2020
    View More
  • 13 June 2020
    View More
  • 10 June 2020
    View More
  • 1 June 2020
    View More
  • 27 May 2020
    View More
  • 24 May 2020
    View More
  • 21 May 2020
    View More
  • 19 May 2020
    View More
  • 13 May 2020
    View More
  • 1 May 2020
    View More
  • 30 April 2020
    View More
  • 27 April 2020
    View More
  • 26 April 2020
    View More
  • 24 April 2020
    View More
  • 11 April 2020
    View More
  • 8 April 2020
    View More
  • 1 April 2020
    View More
  • 31 March 2020
    View More
  • 30 March 2020
    View More
  • 28 March 2020
    View More
  • 26 March 2020
    View More
  • 26 March 2020
    View More
  • 24 March 2020
    View More
  • 17 March 2020
    View More
  • 7 March 2020
    View More
  • 4 March 2020
    View More
  • 25 February 2020
    View More
  • 25 February 2020
    View More
  • 23 February 2020
    View More
  • 20 February 2020
    View More
  • 20 February 2020
    View More
  • 20 February 2020
    View More
  • 19 February 2020
    View More
  • 16 February 2020
    View More
  • 15 February 2020
    View More
  • 15 February 2020
    View More
  • 13 February 2020
    View More
  • 13 February 2020
    View More
  • 12 February 2020
    View More
  • 6 February 2020
    View More
  • 2 February 2020
    View More
  • 31 January 2020
    View More
  • 29 January 2020
    View More
  • 28 January 2020
    View More
  • 18 January 2020
    View More
  • 13 January 2020
    View More
  • 8 January 2020
    View More
  • 6 January 2020
    View More
  • 2 January 2020
    View More
  • 2 January 2020
    View More
  • 29 December 2019
    View More
  • 27 December 2019
    View More
  • 27 December 2019
    View More
  • 23 December 2019
    View More
  • 23 December 2019
    View More
  • 19 December 2019
    View More
  • 11 December 2019
    View More
  • 10 December 2019
    View More
  • 10 December 2019
    View More
  • 10 December 2019
    View More
  • 8 December 2019
    View More
  • 6 December 2019
    View More
  • 6 December 2019
    View More
  • 5 December 2019
    View More
  • 4 December 2019
    View More
  • 3 December 2019
    View More
  • 2 December 2019
    View More
  • 28 November 2019
    View More
  • 26 November 2019
    View More
  • 24 November 2019
    View More
  • 23 November 2019
    View More
  • 23 November 2019
    View More
  • 20 November 2019
    View More
  • 20 November 2019
    View More
  • 20 November 2019
    View More
  • 19 November 2019
    View More
  • 18 November 2019
    View More
  • 9 November 2019
    View More
  • 7 November 2019
    View More
  • 6 November 2019
    View More
  • 5 November 2019
    View More
  • 1 November 2019
    View More
  • 1 November 2019
    View More
  • 1 November 2019
    View More
  • 31 October 2019
    View More
  • 28 October 2019
    View More
  • 28 October 2019
    View More
  • 26 October 2019
    View More
  • 17 October 2019
    View More
  • 16 October 2019
    View More
  • 13 October 2019
    View More
  • 13 October 2019
    View More
  • 9 October 2019
    View More
  • 8 October 2019
    View More
  • 4 October 2019
    View More
  • 1 October 2019
    View More
  • 30 September 2019
    View More
  • 30 September 2019
    View More
  • 29 September 2019
    View More
  • 28 September 2019
    View More
  • 26 September 2019
    View More
  • 26 September 2019
    View More
  • 25 September 2019
    View More
  • 24 September 2019
    View More
  • 24 September 2019
    View More
  • 24 September 2019
    View More
  • 24 September 2019
    View More
  • 23 September 2019
    View More
  • 22 September 2019
    View More
  • 22 September 2019
    View More
  • 21 September 2019
    View More
  • 20 September 2019
    View More
  • 20 September 2019
    View More
  • 19 September 2019
    View More
  • 19 September 2019
    View More
  • 18 September 2019
    View More
  • 18 September 2019
    View More
  • 18 September 2019
    View More
  • 18 September 2019
    View More
  • 17 September 2019
    View More
  • 17 September 2019
    View More
  • 16 September 2019
    View More
  • 16 September 2019
    View More
  • 15 September 2019
    View More
  • 14 September 2019
    View More
  • 11 September 2019
    View More
  • 11 September 2019
    View More
  • 10 September 2019
    View More
  • 9 September 2019
    View More
  • 6 September 2019
    View More
  • 5 September 2019
    View More
  • 4 September 2019
    View More
  • 3 September 2019
    View More
  • 31 August 2019
    View More
  • 31 August 2019
    View More
  • 29 August 2019
    View More
  • 28 August 2019
    View More
  • 27 August 2019
    View More
  • 26 August 2019
    View More
  • 26 August 2019
    View More
  • 25 August 2019
    View More
  • 25 August 2019
    View More
  • 24 August 2019
    View More
  • 23 August 2019
    View More
  • 22 August 2019
    View More
  • 21 August 2019
    View More
  • 20 August 2019
    View More
  • 17 August 2019
    View More
  • 17 August 2019
    View More
  • 16 August 2019
    View More
  • 15 August 2019
    View More
  • 14 August 2019
    View More
  • 13 August 2019
    View More
  • 11 August 2019
    View More
  • 11 August 2019
    View More
  • 11 August 2019
    View More
  • 8 August 2019
    View More
  • 8 August 2019
    View More
  • 8 August 2019
    View More
  • 8 August 2019
    View More
  • 5 August 2019
    View More
  • 3 August 2019
    View More
  • 1 August 2019
    View More
  • 29 July 2019
    View More
  • 25 July 2019
    View More
  • 24 July 2019
    View More
  • 23 July 2019
    View More
  • 23 July 2019
    View More
  • 20 July 2019
    View More
  • 19 July 2019
    View More
  • 19 July 2019
    View More
  • 17 July 2019
    View More
  • 17 July 2019
    View More
  • 16 July 2019
    View More
  • 16 July 2019
    View More
  • 15 July 2019
    View More
  • 8 July 2019
    View More
  • 8 July 2019
    View More
  • 5 July 2019
    View More
  • 2 July 2019
    View More
  • 1 July 2019
    View More
  • 30 June 2019
    View More
  • 28 June 2019
    View More
  • 27 June 2019
    View More
  • 24 June 2019
    View More
  • 23 June 2019
    View More
  • 21 June 2019
    View More
  • 20 June 2019
    View More
  • 18 June 2019
    View More
  • 18 June 2019
    View More
  • 16 June 2019
    View More
  • 16 June 2019
    View More
  • 16 June 2019
    View More
  • 15 June 2019
    View More
  • 14 June 2019
    View More
  • 12 June 2019
    View More
  • 10 June 2019
    View More
  • 4 June 2019
    View More
  • 4 June 2019
    View More
  • 31 May 2019
    View More
  • 30 May 2019
    View More
  • 30 May 2019
    View More
  • 29 May 2019
    View More
  • 27 May 2019
    View More
  • 26 May 2019
    View More
  • 24 May 2019
    View More
  • 23 May 2019
    View More
  • 21 May 2019
    View More
  • 20 May 2019
    View More
  • 19 May 2019
    View More
  • 18 May 2019
    View More
  • 16 May 2019
    View More
  • 15 May 2019
    View More
  • 14 May 2019
    View More
  • 13 May 2019
    View More
  • 13 May 2019
    View More
  • 11 May 2019
    View More
  • 9 May 2019
    View More
  • 8 May 2019
    View More
  • 2 May 2019
    View More
  • 2 May 2019
    View More
  • 30 April 2019
    View More
  • 29 April 2019
    View More
  • 24 April 2019
    View More
  • 23 April 2019
    View More
  • 22 April 2019
    View More
  • 17 April 2019
    View More
  • 16 April 2019
    View More
  • 16 April 2019
    View More
  • 7 April 2019
    View More
  • 5 April 2019
    View More
  • 2 April 2019
    View More
  • 31 March 2019
    View More
  • 29 March 2019
    View More
  • 28 March 2019
    View More
  • 28 March 2019
    View More
  • 26 March 2019
    View More
  • 23 March 2019
    View More
  • 22 March 2019
    View More
  • 21 March 2019
    View More
  • 19 March 2019
    View More
  • 17 March 2019
    View More
  • 16 March 2019
    View More
  • 15 March 2019
    View More
  • 8 March 2019
    View More
  • 7 March 2019
    View More
  • 7 March 2019
    View More
  • 4 March 2019
    View More
  • 24 February 2019
    View More
  • 14 February 2019
    View More
  • 13 February 2019
    View More
  • 13 February 2019
    View More
  • 13 February 2019
    View More
  • 5 February 2019
    View More
  • 29 January 2019
    View More
  • 10 January 2019
    View More
  • 29 December 2018
    View More
  • 15 December 2018
    View More
  • 13 December 2018
    View More
  • 12 December 2018
    View More
  • 12 December 2018
    View More
  • 11 December 2018
    View More
  • 9 December 2018
    View More
  • 9 December 2018
    View More
  • 6 December 2018
    View More
  • 6 December 2018
    View More
  • 3 December 2018
    View More
  • 2 December 2018
    View More
  • 1 December 2018
    View More
  • 30 November 2018
    View More
  • 30 November 2018
    View More
  • 29 November 2018
    View More
  • 29 November 2018
    View More
  • 28 November 2018
    View More
  • 25 November 2018
    View More
  • 22 November 2018
    View More
  • 19 November 2018
    View More
  • 13 November 2018
    View More
  • 9 November 2018
    View More
  • 9 November 2018
    View More
  • 8 November 2018
    View More
  • 8 November 2018
    View More
  • 7 November 2018
    View More
  • 7 November 2018
    View More
  • 1 November 2018
    View More
  • 30 October 2018
    View More
  • 28 October 2018
    View More
  • 27 October 2018
    View More
  • 26 October 2018
    View More
  • 13 October 2018
    View More
  • 4 October 2018
    View More
  • 30 September 2018
    View More
  • 30 September 2018
    View More
  • 29 September 2018
    View More
  • 27 September 2018
    View More
  • 26 September 2018
    View More
  • 22 September 2018
    View More
  • 19 September 2018
    View More
  • 19 September 2018
    View More
  • 19 September 2018
    View More
  • 14 September 2018
    View More
  • 13 September 2018
    View More
  • 12 September 2018
    View More
  • 11 September 2018
    View More
  • 7 September 2018
    View More
  • 6 September 2018
    View More
  • 5 September 2018
    View More
  • 4 September 2018
    View More
  • 2 September 2018
    View More
  • 1 September 2018
    View More
  • 31 August 2018
    View More
  • 28 August 2018
    View More
  • 28 August 2018
    View More
  • 28 August 2018
    View More
  • 27 August 2018
    View More
  • 23 August 2018
    View More
  • 23 August 2018
    View More
  • 21 August 2018
    View More
  • 18 August 2018
    View More
  • 18 August 2018
    View More
  • 18 August 2018
    View More
  • 16 August 2018
    View More
  • 13 August 2018
    View More
  • 10 August 2018
    View More
  • 10 August 2018
    View More
  • 9 August 2018
    View More
  • 8 August 2018
    View More
  • 6 August 2018
    View More
  • 4 August 2018
    View More
  • 3 August 2018
    View More
  • 1 August 2018
    View More
  • 31 July 2018
    View More
  • 27 July 2018
    View More
  • 26 July 2018
    View More
  • 26 July 2018
    View More
  • 25 July 2018
    View More
  • 25 July 2018
    View More
  • 25 July 2018
    View More
  • 23 July 2018
    View More
  • 21 July 2018
    View More
  • 19 July 2018
    View More
  • 18 July 2018
    View More
  • 18 July 2018
    View More
  • 18 July 2018
    View More
  • 16 July 2018
    View More
  • 14 July 2018
    View More
  • 13 July 2018
    View More
  • 10 July 2018
    View More
  • 10 July 2018
    View More
  • 9 July 2018
    View More
  • 8 July 2018
    View More
  • 6 July 2018
    View More
  • 6 July 2018
    View More
  • 3 July 2018
    View More
  • 3 July 2018
    View More
  • 2 July 2018
    View More
  • 1 July 2018
    View More
  • 1 July 2018
    View More
  • 29 June 2018
    View More
  • 25 June 2018
    View More
  • 25 June 2018
    View More
  • 24 June 2018
    View More
  • 24 June 2018
    View More
  • 20 June 2018
    View More
  • 19 June 2018
    View More
  • 19 June 2018
    View More
  • 17 June 2018
    View More
  • 17 June 2018
    View More
  • 17 June 2018
    View More
  • 15 June 2018
    View More
  • 14 June 2018
    View More
  • 14 June 2018
    View More
  • 13 June 2018
    View More
  • 13 June 2018
    View More
  • 13 June 2018
    View More
  • 10 June 2018
    View More
  • 9 June 2018
    View More
  • 5 June 2018
    View More
  • 1 June 2018
    View More
  • 29 May 2018
    View More
  • 29 May 2018
    View More
  • 27 May 2018
    View More
  • 26 May 2018
    View More
  • 25 May 2018
    View More
  • 24 May 2018
    View More
  • 22 May 2018
    View More
  • 21 May 2018
    View More
  • 19 May 2018
    View More
  • 15 May 2018
    View More
  • 11 May 2018
    View More
  • 9 May 2018
    View More
  • 6 May 2018
    View More
  • 6 May 2018
    View More
  • 28 April 2018
    View More
  • 27 April 2018
    View More
  • 23 April 2018
    View More
  • 23 April 2018
    View More
  • 22 April 2018
    View More
  • 20 April 2018
    View More
  • 16 April 2018
    View More
  • 16 April 2018
    View More
  • 15 April 2018
    View More
  • 12 April 2018
    View More
  • 4 April 2018
    View More
  • 3 April 2018
    View More
  • 31 March 2018
    View More
  • 29 March 2018
    View More
  • 28 March 2018
    View More
  • 26 March 2018
    View More
  • 25 March 2018
    View More
  • 17 March 2018
    View More
  • 26 February 2018
    View More
  • 17 February 2018
    View More
  • 10 February 2018
    View More
  • 5 February 2018
    View More
  • 29 January 2018
    View More
  • 16 January 2018
    View More
  • 12 January 2018
    View More
  • 11 January 2018
    View More
  • 9 January 2018
    View More
  • 5 January 2018
    View More
  • 19 December 2017
    View More
  • 15 December 2017
    View More
  • 14 December 2017
    STATE DEPARTMENT
    View More
  • 8 December 2017
    View More
  • 5 December 2017
    View More
  • 4 December 2017
    View More
  • 3 December 2017
    View More
  • 23 November 2017
    View More
  • 20 November 2017
    View More
  • 19 November 2017
    View More
  • 15 November 2017
    View More
  • 10 November 2017
    View More
  • 9 November 2017
    View More
  • 8 November 2017
    View More
  • 8 November 2017
    View More
  • 8 November 2017
    View More
  • 7 November 2017
    View More
  • 7 November 2017
    View More
  • 5 November 2017
    View More
  • 4 November 2017
    View More
Houthi fighters ride a truck near the presidential palace in Sanaa,22 January 2015 REUTERS/Khaled Abdullah

III. Background

Until December 2017 Yemen’s current civil war pitted Ansar Allah (Huthi) rebels and military units allied with Saleh against a diverse mix of opponents, including forces affiliated with the internationally recognised government of President Hadi, backed by a Saudi-led coalition in which the UAE also plays a major role, and which is supported by the U.S., the UK and France. Following Saleh’s death in December 2017 the Huthis have consolidated their control over the security and military apparatus in north-western Yemen.

The descent into civil war has its roots in a post-2011 political transition that was overtaken by elite infighting, high-level corruption and inability of the National Dialogue Conference, a series of inclusive talks aimed at producing consensus on future power sharing arrangements and state structures, and especially on the status of south Yemen, where desire for independence is strong.

The Huthis, a Zaydi (Shiite) revivalist movement turned militia, framed itself during the transitional period as an uncorrupted outsider. In September 2014, Huthi forces stormed into Sanaa, the capital, on a wave of popular resentment against the Hadi government and with help from Saleh supporters including key military leaders. They later marched south, supported by military units allied with Saleh, to challenge Hadi, who had fled to Aden to reestablish the government on Yemeni soil.

Angered by the Huthi takeover and worried about the group’s ties to Iran and access to Yemen’s stock of ballistic missiles, Riyadh announced it was leading a coalition to restore the Hadi government’s control of Yemen in March 2015. While the coalition ostensibly has more than a dozen members, in practice Saudi Arabia and the UAE have played the biggest roles in a campaign that relies heavily on aerial bombardment and proxy forces. Saudi Arabia focussed on supporting tribal, military and other forces loosely structured around Islah, Yemen’s main Sunni Islamist party, to the east of Sanaa. For its part, the UAE, whose leadership distrusts Islah as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood (which it sees as a gateway to extremism), limited its operations to the south and east of Yemen. There it worked with secessionist and Salafist forces first to push out the Huthi-Saleh alliance and then to roll back al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in cooperation with the U.S. In early 2017, UAE-backed forces launched an overland campaign intended to seize the Red Sea port city of Hodeida by pushing north along the Red Sea coast from their base in south Yemen. The UAE-backed forces seized Mokha in February 2017, but thereafter progress along the coast was slow.

On 4 December 2017, Huthi fighters killed their erstwhile ally, Saleh. His violent death and the military defeat of his loyalists in Sanaa were the culmination of months of growing tensions between the Huthis and Saleh’s General People’s Congress party (GPC). Before coming to blows with the Huthis, Saleh had announced his willingness to “turn a new page” in relations with the Saudi-led coalition. Saleh’s nephew, Tareq Mohammed Saleh, has since undergone a rapid transformation from a prominent commander in the Huthi-Saleh alliance’s war against the coalition into the public face of that very coalition’s Red Sea coast campaign.

From the beginning of 2018 the pace of the coalition’s progress along the Red Sea coast increased, pushing up to Hodeida port and city before becoming bogged down. An offensive to take the Huthi-held city, dubbed Operation Golden Victory, was launched in mid-June but ran aground, then gave way to negotiations. In the December 2018 UN-backed Stockholm Agreement, the Yemeni government and its Huthi adversaries agreed to a ceasefire and demilitarisation process in Hodeida, a prisoner exchange, as well as the formation of a committee to de-escalate tensions in Taiz governorate. Since then, and after a partial redeployment of Huthi forces from Hodeida, attempts to implement the Stockholm Agreement have hit a roadblock. At the same time, U.S.-Iran tensions are rising sky-high, while Saudi air attacks on Sanaa and Huthi missile and drone attacks into Saudi Arabia threaten to both trigger a broader regional confrontation and, in turn, draw Yemen deeper into that morass.

The view from Riyadh is that Iran seeks to destabilise Gulf countries to realise hegemonic ambitions in the region. Riyadh sees Iranian influence across its southern neighbour as an existential threat.  Saudi leaders say they do not want a Hizbollah-like entity on the other side of a porous 1800-kilometre border with Yemen. When Huthi forces overthrew Hadi and drove south toward Aden in early 2015, Saudi Arabia and its allies launched a combined air and ground campaign, with the stated goal of rolling back Huthi advances and reinstating the Hadi government in Sanaa.

President of the Republic of Yemen Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi (R) meets with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh, 8 November 2017 PRESIDENT HADI'S TWITTER

The view from Washington is that the U.S. needs to stand by a key ally, Saudi Arabia, and contain Iranian expansionism, in particular by seeking to halt Tehran’s alleged arms transfers to the Huthis (which are in contravention of UN Security Council resolutions). As with other regional flashpoints, such as Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, in Yemen the Trump administration is alarmed by what it sees as Iran’s expanding influence through local allies and proxies, and determined to reverse what it considers its predecessor’s overly passive approach.  

The view from Tehran is divided: Hassan Rouhani’s government deems Iran’s ties to the Huthis useful, but only as long as the group’s actions do not harm Iran’s strategic interests. Others, in the military and security establishment, appear to view the Huthis as a natural ally deserving of Iranian support, and see Iran benefitting from having Saudi Arabia caught in a Yemeni quagmire at very low cost to Iran. There is, however, broad consensus in Tehran that Riyadh is trying to heat up regional tensions – for example, by destabilising the Lebanese government, supporting insurgent groups in Iran and tightening the anti-Huthi blockade on Yemen – to provoke a direct confrontation between Iran and the U.S.

IV. Analysis

Inflection Point? Yemen witnessed a rare moment of international coherence and focus when the UN-brokered, U.S.-backed Stockholm Agreement prevented a battle for Hodeida and staved off a likely famine. However, UN-led attempts to demilitarise Hodeida and two nearby ports are at risk of running aground, in turn preventing long hoped-for political negotiations to end the war. In May 2019, faced with the parties’ inability to work out a mutually acceptable process, the UN endorsed unilateral Huthi redeployments from Hodeida, Ras Issa and Salif ports. The Hadi government reacted angrily, calling the Huthi redeployments a sham and accusing UN Special Envoy Marin Griffiths of bias. The Hadi government has yet to back down from its maximalist interpretation of the accord: that all Huthi personnel are to be replaced by government forces, a claim the Huthis reject and the UN says does not reflect what was agreed in Sweden.

Huthi missile strikes in Saudi Arabia (June 2015 – May 2018) Saudi-led Coalition/ACLED

A Perilous Escalation: The Huthis fired more than 150 ballistic missiles into Saudi territory between the start of the conflict in 2015 and mid-2018. According to Saudi data shown in Graphic 1, the majority targeted Jizan and Najran in south west Saudi Arabia. As seen in Graphic 2, Huthis strikes grew more frequent in 2018. (Note that the number of Huthi missile launches remains just a tiny fraction of the coalition’s air strikes in Yemen; the latter appear in orange and are measured by the vertical scale on the left side of the chart, whereas Huthi strikes appear in blue and are measured by the vertical scale on the right side of the chart). There were nearly twice as many Huthi strikes in the first five months of 2018 as in the whole of 2017. Though the half-dozen ineffective, improvised long-range missiles aimed at Riyadh have attracted the most attention, Saudi policymakers seem most worried by the prospect of a successful short-range attack on their southern cities, which the Huthis could hold up as proof that the Kingdom cannot defend its own citizens. The Huthis’ growing missile capabilities raise the political stakes and potential costs for Saudi Arabia and other Gulf capitals, which soon could be in range. (The Huthis already have attempted missile strikes on the UAE.)

Number of air and rocket strikes on Yemen and Saudi Arabia Saudi-led Coalition/Yemen Data Project/ACLED

Coalition strikes have exacted an enormous toll on Yemen. The devastation can scarcely be overstated; 17,000 strikes from March 2015 through May 2018, according to UN estimates, killed or injured more than 10,000 civilians. Isolating exactly how those strikes affected Huthi decision making is much more difficult, given multiple causation. For instance, the Huthis launched a spate of attacks after two particularly deadly coalition attacks in November 2017 against the Huthis’ home district of Saada that killed 38 people, including eight children, suggesting retaliation as a motive. But these fatal strikes coincided with behind-the-scenes efforts to restart stalled negotiations to end the war, raising the possibility that the Huthi movement’s harder-line military wing, out of step with its political negotiators, took advantage of the moment for its own purposes to pre-empt talks. There may be a third factor involved in Huthi ballistic missile launches as well: as seen in Graphic 3, the increase in launches since late 2017 came against the backdrop of territorial gains by the coalition, particularly in north west Yemen along the Saudi-Yemeni border and along the south west coast. This suggests another possible correlation: that developments on the ground drive escalations in missile attacks.

In May 2019, the Huthis publicly committed to an intensified military campaign, asserting they plan to attack 300 military installations in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Yemen in response to the Saudi-imposed closure of Sanaa airport and a Saudi-led economic war that has seen them increasingly cut off from international trade and banking. Since then, the tempo of cross-border attacks has risen significantly: there have been escalating Huthi drone attacks and missile strikes into Saudi Arabia, including repeated attacks against Najran and Abha airports; Saudi airstrikes in Yemen have also intensified.

Coalition territorial gains vs. Huthi missile strikes Saudi-led coalition/ACLED

End of an Alliance: Before breaking apart, the Huthi/Saleh alliance had fought the Saudi-led coalition for more than two and a half years despite a history of conflict and mutual mistrust. While the Huthis described Saleh’s death as a victory, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates seized upon the event to unify anti-Huthi ranks. Military activity in Yemen sharply increased, with more intense air bombardments of Huthi-controlled areas. Coalition-backed Yemeni forces captured some territory in the Shabwa province in the south; in Jawf, which borders Saudi Arabia; in Saada, the Huthis’ northern heartland; and especially along the Red Sea coast, where they took Mokha and moved on Hodeida, reaching the outskirts in June 2018. The GPC, Yemen’s historical ruling party which Saleh led from its inception, fractured, with some members aligning themselves with Hadi and Saudi Arabia and others staying in Sanaa in apparent partnership with the Huthis from a mix of fear, lack of better options and common hostility to the Saudi-led air campaign. The major GPC factions abroad are based in Abu Dhabi, Cairo and Riyadh

An Iranian Hand? There is little doubt that Tehran has provided the Huthis with arms, funds and training, and that their ties have only grown as the war progressed, although the extent of Iranian (and Hizbollah) support for the Huthis is hard to quantify and the relationship is not a linear one of proxy and client. It is entirely plausible that, as U.S. sanctions on Iran have tightened, Tehran has encouraged the Huthis to step up attacks against Saudi Arabia. Yet while an Iranian green light or encouragement might have helped, just as a strong warning by the Islamic Republic against such attacks might deter the Huthis, the latter indisputably have an agenda of their own. They have long believed the conflict will end only through direct talks with Riyadh, see military pressure on Saudi Arabia as an important point of leverage in bringing about these discussions, and feel they must respond to the economic and military pressure the war has placed on them. And they argue that a peace deal with Saudi Arabia bringing a halt to aerial attacks by both sides and an agreement on how to secure the border would obviate the need for their alignment with Tehran.  

A cache of weapons is assembled on the deck of the USS Gravely, 31 March 2016 U.S. NAVY'S FLICKER

V. Scenarios and Recommendations

An Escalation that Could Spiral out of Control: A Huthi missile strike on a Saudi or Emirati target that causes significant casualties or damage could prompt the U.S. or Saudi Arabia to retaliate against Iran. A Huthi missile strike on a Saudi or Emirati target that causes significant casualties or damage could prompt the U.S. or Saudi Arabia to retaliate against Iran, for example by targeting missile factories or other IRGC bases. Such a counterstrike could also take place in Yemen, drawing the U.S. more deeply and overtly into the conflict. And if the war in Yemen has the potential to provoke a wider regional confrontation, so too might regional developments have a perilous knock-on effect on the Yemen war. Iranian officials say that they expect their regional allies, including the Huthis, to come to their support if tensions boil over and the U.S. carries out an attack on Iranian territory. Huthi officials themselves have warned of a “great war” in the region in which they say they would join on the side of the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance”, if the Yemen war is not over by then. It is hard to see how the Huthis, not to mention the Yemeni people as a whole, would benefit from such an escalation in fighting.

Twin Tracks: As regional tensions rise, with Yemen a possible trigger for a broader conflagration, there is an urgent need for active international involvement. Two parallel efforts are required, the first focused on saving the Stockholm Agreement, the second on halting cross-border attacks between the Huthis and Saudi Arabia. International actors, notably the UN Security Council’s permanent members, ought to seize the initiative, revive their active support for UN-led mediation and pressure the parties to de-escalate.

Stockholm Stagnation: Should the fragile ceasefire around Hodeida continue to erode, it could precipitate a low-intensity struggle for the city. Since the UAE’s plan in mid-2019 to draw down its own presence on the Red Sea coast, reports have emerged that Saudi Arabia plans to fill the vacuum while Yemeni forces on the ground have moved to form their own local command structures. These forces could still attempt to seize Hodeida, perhaps encouraged and aided by Saudi Arabia in the wake of a major Huthi attack on Saudi or UAE territory. If such an assault were to be initiated, the UAE could be drawn back into supporting it, at least with airpower. The risks inherent in such an attack on Hodeida remain high. Even if the coalition and its Yemeni allies were able to secure victory without triggering a famine – an unlikely outcome – there is no basis for believing that the loss of Hodeida would lead the Huthis to return to the negotiating table in a more pliable mood or abandon their relationship with Iran. More likely, the Huthis would dig in and continue the fight, with the more pragmatic wing of its leadership – those who backed the UN process – sidelined in favour of those who were skeptical of the talks from the start.

Saudi-Huthi De-escalation: Parallel to UN-led efforts aimed at a Hodeida compromise that would allow the parties to move beyond the Stockholm Agreement to focus on a broader political settlement, Saudi Arabia should open a direct channel with the Huthis  to explore the possibility of negotiating a halt in Huthi cross-border attacks in exchange for a pause or significant reduction in Saudi airstrikes against Huthi targets in Yemen. This would require direct talks between the two parties. The Huthis previously signalled their interest in such a deal; Saudi officials have resisted it. But potential benefits to the kingdom are significant. At a time of rising tensions with Iran, Riyadh might see an advantage in neutralising a front that has offered Tehran a low-cost, high-yield opportunity to bleed its regional rival. An understanding between the kingdom and the Huthis would lessen the rebel group’s dependence on Iran and could trigger an intra-Huthi rift between those more and those less committed to being aligned with the Islamic Republic. Mutual de-escalation could in turn pave the way for broader discussions of issues at the core of the Saudi-Huthi relationship. The U.S. could play a leading role by both encouraging and reassuring Riyadh, as well as by resuming its own contacts with the Huthis to choreograph the two sides’ mutual steps.