Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with his Iraqi counterpart, and “encouraged the Government of Iraq on its efforts to become energy independent and to increase innovation in its energy sector”. According to an Iraqi readout, Foreign Minister Fuad Hossein discussed, inter alia, Iraq’s debt to Iran for energy imports and “how to deal with the American measures on international banks, including Iraqi banks”, noting the “need to find a solution to this problem as it directly affects the electrical sector in Iraq”. He further “thanked the American side for allowing to solve the issue of financial payments to Iranian pilgrims and Iranian money in Iraqi banks”. On 11 June, a U.S. spokesperson underscored that “no funds are allocated to Iran and any reporting to the contrary is false. For several years, the U.S. has approved similar transactions on an ongoing basis consistent with OFAC regulations and in full coordination with the Government of Iraq… The U.S. has maintained strict compliance with all Iran-related sanctions and will continue to do so unless and until Iran’s nuclear program returns to compliance with prior commitments”.

The secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), Ali-Akbar Ahmadian, told his Iraqi counterpart that “we, within the framework of the [March] agreement, expect the Iraqi government to guarantee the security of the country’s borders with Iran as soon as possible, while ending the presence of counterrevolutionary elements in the country”.

Iran’s intelligence minister remarked that “with the cooperation of the new Iraqi government and the guarantees given, we hope to see security on the western borders… and emphasise the responsibility of the Iraqi [Kurdistan] region”. “If insecurity is created for the Islamic Republic”, he warned, “any action on the borders will be met with a decisive and overwhelming response”.

Iran’s foreign ministry summoned Iraq’s ambassador over what it described as “the continuation of terrorist groups' movements in Iraq's Kurdistan region… contrary to the recent security agreement between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Iraq”.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei told Iraq’s president, who was visiting Tehran, that “the U.S. is not Iraq’s friend… The presence of even one single American in Iraq is too much”. The president also met with his Iranian counterpart, who asserted that “as much as we consider the negotiations between the countries of the region useful, we consider the presence of foreign forces in the region to be harmful and we consider the presence of the Americans to be a threat to the security of the region”. Raisi also remarked that “the will of the two countries is to develop relations in all fields”, emphasising that bilateral relations “in the field of infrastructure such as water, electricity, gas and energy should continue in such a way that the use of existing capacities fully meets the needs of both sides”.

Iranian Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) secretary Ali Shamkhani signed a security agreement in Iraq which, according to Iranian state media, would “have a decisive impact on reducing and managing the unwanted security challenges between the two states, which are caused due to the mischief of anti-Islamic establishment elements residing in Iraq’s Kurdistan region”. Shamkhani told his counterpart that “the careful implementation of such an agreement will lead to a significant decrease in terrorist threats and border insecurity, and prepare the ground for fostering bilateral ties in security, economic and political fields more than ever before”. Separately, he told Prime Minister al-Sudani that “a united, integrated and powerful Iraq is the pillar of stability in the region”, adding: “We should not allow the two countries’ interests to fall victim to the U.S.’s mischief and its terrorist mercenaries”. The following day, Shamkhani announced “a new arrangement to use Iranian funds that remain blocked in Iraq because of U.S. sanctions… The funds will be used to purchase basic goods and to settle payments owed by Iranian merchants to trade partners in Iraq”.

A senior U.S. defence official stressed that “our forces [in Iraq and Syria] are under constant threat from Iranian-aligned militia groups who seek to constantly harass our forces, which detracts and undermines our ability to continue prosecuting the defeat ISIS mission, and it also directly undermines, threatens and jeopardises the recovery efforts of those local communities who, only a few years ago, were under ISIS caliphate rule, experiencing the worst depravities and atrocities. So it’s truly destabilising”. She further asserted that “we hold Iran accountable and responsible for these attacks because Iran is arming, training, equipping and guiding these groups”.

Iran’s UN envoy wrote to the Security Council accusing Israel of responsibility for a 28 January drone attack against a military facility in Isfahan. He also maintained that “the Israeli regime persists… its threats to use force against Iran’s critical infrastructure, including Iran’s peaceful nuclear facilities”, and asserted: “Iran reserves its legitimate and inherent right… to defend its national security and respond resolutely to any threats or wrongful actions by the Israeli regime, wherever and whenever deemed necessary”. The same day, a media outlet close to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council asserted that the components for UAVs used in the attack had “entered Iran with the participation and guidance of Kurdish opposition groups based in the Kurdistan region of Iraq… on the order of a foreign security service”. It further noted: “The necessity of preventing destructive and anti-security actions of Kurdish opposition groups based in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, has been repeatedly pointed out to the government of this country. The continuation of the terrorist activities of these groups against Iran shows that the Iraqi government has not yet been able to completely fulfill its legal responsibilities in this regard”.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei told Iraqi Prime Minister al-Sudani that efforts to undermine Iran’s security were “currently taking place in some areas of Iraq. The only solution is for the Iraqi central government to extend its authority to those areas as well”. He added: “If any party intends to disrupt the country’s security, we will stand up firmly in front of any party seeking to undermine Iraq’s security… Iraq’s security is Iran’s security, in the same way that Iran’s security also has an effect on the security of Iraq”. According to an Iraqi readout, the premier emphasised that “the government is committed to the Iraqi constitution, which prohibits making Iraq a launchpad for aggression against its neighbours”. The same day, President Raisi, during a joint press conference with al-Sudani, asserted: “The presence of outsiders does not bring security at all, but causes many problems for the region… Definitely, the withdrawal of the Americans from the region will lead to an increase in peace, stability and security”.

The IRGC Ground Forces’ commander announced a bolstering of forces in western and north-western Iran to “strengthen the units located on the border… [and] prevent the infiltration of terrorists affiliated with separatist groups operating in Iraq’s northern region”.

The IRGC carried out missile and drone strikes against Kurdish opposition groups near Kikuk. The U.S. denounced the “repeated and brazen violations of Iraq’s territorial integrity” and urged “Iran to refrain from further threats and violence”. The same day, Iran’s ambassador to Iraq claimed that “some of our vital military centers have been attacked from the Iraqi Kurdistan region’s soil and we have informed the Iraqi side, both the authorities of the Iraqi Kurdistan region and the central government in Iraq, of this issue. We [provided them] with maps and documents”. Too, a senior IRGC commander emphasised that “the attack on the headquarters and bases of armed criminals and terrorist groups will continue until the threat is eliminated”.

The IRGC renewed missile and drone operations against Kurdish separatist groups in northern Iraq. The following day it stated that it had been bolstering its presence in north-western Iran “following the movements of villains and anti-Iran separatist terrorist groups… and the creation of villainy and insecurity in some areas”, while highlighting “the security of the region and the honorable and valiant people of the border provinces of the north west as our red line”. The Kurdistan Regional government condemned the attack in “the strongest terms… Iran’s repeated violations of the sovereignty of Iraq and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq are inexcusable and a gross infringement of international law and neighbourly relations”. The U.S.-led counter-ISIS coalition denounced the strikes and emphasised: “These attacks place innocent civilians at risk. Such acts jeopardise the security and stability of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region”.

The IRGC targeted what it described as bases of “terrorist separatist groups” in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region using drones and missiles, citing “continued inaction and some evident oversights, which were sometimes intentional, by officials of the northern Iraqi [Kurdistan] region in dealing with the activities of counterrevolutionary and anti-Iran terrorist and separatist groups that have carved out a safe haven in the region to hatch plots and conduct attacks against the Iranian nation”. Multiple casualties were reported. The Iraqi foreign ministry denounced the attack “in strong and repeated terms” and its minister emphasised to his Iranian counterpart “the importance of dialogue as a way to stop this unjustified hostile escalation, describing the continuation of these unilateral actions as dangerous”. The U.S.-led counter-ISIS coalition denounced the Iranian strikes “as a violation of Iraqi sovereignty”.

Following media reports that Saudi Arabia had provided the U.S. with intelligence described as signaling Iranian intentions “to carry out attacks on both the kingdom and Erbil”, a White House spokesperson indicated that “we are concerned about the threat picture, and we remain in constant contact through military and intelligence channels with the Saudis... We will not hesitate to act in the defence of our interests and partners in the region”. Iran’s foreign ministry rejected the report as “biased fabrication”, emphasising that “Iran believes improvement of stability and security in the region hinges on constructive interaction with neighbours”.

Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian told a group of senior Iraqi security officials that “we do not expect the Kurdistan region of Iraq to be a haven for terrorist acts and a threat against Iran… We want nothing but good for the Iraqi government and nation, but we will not tolerate the continued armed presence of terrorists in the Kurdistan region and their actions against Iran’s security”.

The Iraqi parliament approved Abdul Latif Rashid as president, who appointed Mohammed Shia al-Sudani as interim prime minister.

The Iraqi Security Media Cell reported that nine rockets had targeted Baghdad’s Green Zone, injuring “a number of members of the security services and citizens”. The same day, mortars targeted a government building in Baghdad.

After Iraq’s UN envoy condemned Iran at the Security Council for conducting “reckless acts” in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region, Iran’s representative wrote to the Council contending that “terrorist and separatist groups… have continued to use Iraqi territory to conduct armed and terrorist attacks against civilians and Iran’s vital infrastructure. These armed groups… have set up several terrorist training camps on Iraqi territory in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region in order to recruit, train, incite, plan, organise, support and carry out terrorist acts as well as sabotage operations within Iranian territory”. “Despite our repeated objections and warnings, neither the Government of the Republic of Iraq nor officials from the Iraqi Kurdistan Region have taken effective and concrete measures to comply with their international obligations”, he added, while underscoring Iran’s right “to respond to any terrorist threat or attack… at any time it deems appropriate and necessary”.

Foreign Minister Amirabdollahian told his Iraqi counterpart that Iran would not “not tolerate the continuation of aggression and terrorist acts by groups that have taken refuge in the Kurdistan region of Iraq and targeted Iran’s national security”.

Iranian media reported that the IRGC had launched drones and rockets against “the positions of terrorist groups in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region”, the latest in a series of attacks since late September.

Military Chief of Staff Bagheri cautioned “the U.S. forces against cooperating with anti-Iranian terrorists in the Iraqi Kurdistan region”. Referring to the U.S. downing an Iranian drone during 28 September IRGC attacks against what was described as “anti-Iranian terrorist groups” in northern Iraq as evidence of collaboration between them and the U.S., he warned that “we will deal with it at a proper time and place”, adding: “If any hostile measure against the Islamic Republic of Iran, its national security, and its national interests are adopted by American bases in… neighbouring states, we will certainly respond to these bases”.

Iraqi security forces reported that three rockets had hit Baghdad’s Green Zone.

The IRGC confirmed that it had fired 73 ballistic missiles and dozens of UAVs targeting sites belonging to what it called “anti-Iranian terrorist groups” in northern Iraq. CENTCOM reported downing an Iranian drone “headed in the direction of Erbil as it appeared as a threat to CENTCOM forces in the area”. The Iraqi Kurdistan Region’s president denounced the operation, which led to dozens of casualties, and affirmed, “The Kurdistan Region… will not allow any security threat to the neighbouring countries from its borders… [and it] should not be used as a battleground to settle disputes among rival parties”. Iraq’ foreign ministry summoned the Iranian ambassador on 29 September and delivered a “strong note of protests”, warning of operation’s “repercussions on the societal peace of both countries, and on regional security and stability”. The U.S. State Department criticised the attack as “an unjustified violation of Iraqi sovereignty and territorial integrity”, and further condemned “comments from the government of Iran threatening additional attacks against Iraq”, while National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said “Iran cannot deflect blame from its internal problems and the legitimate grievances of its population with attacks across its borders… the U.S. will continue to pursue sanctions and other means to disrupt Iran’s destabilising activities across the Middle East region”. The following day, the U.S. confirmed the death of one of its citizens during the attack.  

The IRGC reported that it had targeted with artillery what it claimed were “the positions of anti-Iran terrorist groups affiliated with global arrogance [ie, the West] in northern Iraq who have in recent days trespassed on Iran’s north-western borders and attacked some border bases of our country”. It further noted that “Iran on many occasions has warned officials of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region about the terrorist groups’ activities in the region but they have failed to pay necessary attention to the warnings and take proper measures to prevent terrorist moves”, adding: “The operation will continued until the Iraqi Kurdish officials accept their responsibilities”. On 26 September, Iranian media reported a “new round of [IRGC] artillery and drone attacks against terrorists in northern Iraq”.

President Raisi underlined “the development of neighbourly relations as the principles of [his administration’s] foreign policy”, while noting: “Our emphasis to the neighbours is that you should not pursue your security with the presence of Americans or outsiders in the region. The security of the region is in the hands of the countries of the region”. Referring to a potential next round of talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Raisi maintained: “The Saudi side has obligations the fulfilment of which will open the way for further actions, and surely the diplomatic relations between the two countries depend on the implementation of these obligations”.

Multiple rockets landed near the Turkish consulate in Mosul; no casualties were reported. The Turkish foreign ministry condemned the attack and called on “Iraqi authorities to fulfil their responsibilities in protecting diplomatic and consular missions”.

Commenting on Iraq-mediated talks between Saudi and Iranian officials, Iran’s diplomatic spokesperson indicated that “due to the positive will of the parties, it is possible to hold the next meeting at the official and political level in Baghdad, and take a step in the direction of improving and resuming the relations between the two countries”.

KRG officials reported that multiple rockets targeted the Khor Mor gas field. A spokesperson urged “the Iraqi Federal Government to take the necessary measures to limit and prevent a repetition of these terrorist attacks, which seek to destroy the security and stability of the whole of Iraq and the economic development of the Kurdistan Region”.

Iran’s energy minister remarked that “given that we are facing a surplus of electricity production in the country at many times of the year, we pursue the development of energy diplomacy centered on electricity with neighbours in order to both solve their problems and create a stable flow of income and use the maximum capacity of our electricity network… we prepared the ground for the first long-term cooperation in the electricity sector with Iraq, and signed an important and strategic contract with the country”.

Saudi Arabia and the U.S. issued The Jeddah Communique during President Biden’s visit to the Kingdom, in which “the two sides underscored the need to further deter Iran’s interference in the internal affairs of other countries, its support for terrorism through its arms proxies and its efforts to destabilise the security and stability of the region”. Underscoring “the importance of preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon”, the statement also highlighted maritime security, the benefits of extending the truce in Yemen and Saudi/GCC initiatives for linking up to Iraq’s electricity network. Biden’s trip also included a meeting between U.S. and GCC leaders, who in a 16 July statement “affirmed their joint commitment to preserve regional security and stability, support diplomacy with the aim of regional de-escalation, deepen their region-wide defence, security and intelligence cooperation and ensure the freedom and security of waterways”. That statement also emphasised “the centrality of diplomatic efforts to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon”.

Iraqi Prime Minister al-Kadhimi traveled to Saudi Arabia and then Iran, where he met with senior Iranian officials. President Raisi told al-Kadhimi that “the talks of the countries’ officials can solve the region’s problems”, highlighting “the need for the officials of the countries in the region to negotiate to solve problems and issues with each other”. He further maintained that “normalisation of relations with Israel or the presence of foreigners in the region will not solve any problem”. Foreign Minister Amirabdollahian told al-Kadhimi that “Iran wishes nothing but the welfare of the region and supports the reopening of [Iranian and Saudi] embassies in the capitals of the two countries”. The two also conferred on Yemen, where Amirabdollahian reiterated “Iran’s support for the continuation of ceasefire”.

KRG security officials reported that six rockets targeted the Khor Mor gas field. The following day, the U.S. denounced “repeated rocket and mortar attacks directed at the Iraqi Kurdistan Region, including three attacks… in the last four days on oil and gas infrastructure”, emphasising: “These attacks are designed to undermine economic stability just as they seek to challenge Iraqi sovereignty, sow division and intimidate. They must be investigated and those responsible must be prosecuted”.

A rocket fired at a gas field in northern Iraq injured three people. The Khor Mor field again came under rocket fire on 24 June.

Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein remarked that “these problems regarding Iranian interference whether political or otherwise, we have started talking with the Iranian side differently… Tehran has started to hear a different language from Baghdad, one that did not exist before”. “We have told our Iranian brothers that we are geographical neighbors and that will stay...therefore we need cooperation, we do not need interference from Iran”, he added. On Tehran’s claim on Israeli activities in Erbil against Iran, Hussein said that “if Iran has evidence, it must show it. Iran suggested to send an investigation committee but it never came”. Iran’s diplomatic spokesperson subsequently maintained that Iraq “should not be abused by the [Israeli] usurpers for anti-security actions against their friend Iran… They have been given more information than they need”.

Iraqi security officials reported that at least five rockets had targeted Ain al-Assad airbase; no casualties were reported.

Following reports of the U.S. seizing Iranian oil aboard a tanker off the coast of Greece, the IRGC declared that it had seized two Greek oil tankers, identified as Prudent Warrior and Delta Poseidon. According to industry sources, the former was carrying a U.S.-bound cargo from Iraq and the latter was heading from Iraq to Greece. The Greek foreign ministry delivered a “strong-worded demarche” to Iran’s ambassador, condemned what it described as “actions… essentially tantamount to acts of piracy” and “called for the immediate release of the ships and their crews”. On 30 May, speaking with his Greek counterpart, Secretary of State Antony Blinken denounced the seizure “in the strongest terms” and contended: “Iran’s continued harassment of vessels and interference with navigational rights and freedoms are a threat to maritime security and the global economy”. 

The U.S. State Department asserted that “the U.S. is deeply disturbed by the Iraqi Parliament’s passage of legislation that criminalises normalisation of relations with Israel”, adding: “The U.S. will continue to be a strong and unwavering partner in supporting Israel, including as it expands ties with its neighbours in the pursuit of greater peace and prosperity for all”. Israel’s foreign ministry denounced the decision, asserting that the “law puts Iraq and the Iraqi people on the wrong side of history” and urging “the Iraqi people not to support this extremist position”.

Iraqi security forces reported downing a drone attempting to approach an airbase near Baghdad. The U.S.-led counter-ISIS coalition contended that “the malign actors who launched and operated this UAS [Unmanned Aircraft System] have demonstrated, yet again, a total disregard for the lives of the Iraqi citizens and innocent air travelers”.

The foreign ministers of the counter-ISIS coalition issued a joint statement highlighting that “ensuring the enduring defeat of Daesh/ISIS in Iraq and Syria remains the number one priority”, adding: “Despite significant setbacks… the terrorist group continues to conduct attacks in Iraq and Syria and represents an ongoing threat”. The ministers affirmed that “the Coalition will continue to provide support to the Iraqi Security Forces”, while underscoring “the need to enhance civilian-led counterterrorism capabilities in Iraq… [and] the need to ensure sustainable long-term solutions for Daesh/ISIS fighters and family members in northeast Syria”. “In Syria”, the statement added, “the Coalition stands with the Syrian people in support of a lasting political settlement in line with UN Security Council Resolution 2254”.

The IRGC reported having “detained five members of [a] terrorist team who were trying to infiltrate the country and commit acts of sabotage” in western Iran. The following day, it fired artillery against what were described as “terrorist bases” in Erbil; Iraq’s foreign ministry condemned the attack.

The Kurdistan Regional Government reported that six rockets had fallen “near the KAR refinery in Erbil”; a main tank was damaged in the attack, according to Iraqi security forces. The U.S. consulate in Erbil condemned the attack, “which resulted in damage to an oil refinery… Attacks in Iraq, including on the energy sector, are an assault on the sovereignty of Iraq and hurt Iraqi citizens”.

Iraqi security officials reported that two rockets landed near Ain al-Assad Air Base, without causing “significant losses”.

The secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, told Iraq’s parliament speaker that “Tehran is monitoring the meddlesome presence of the Zionist regime [ie, Israel] and the U.S. in the region and will react quickly and decisively to any security action with might”. In a separate meeting, Foreign Minister Amirabdollahian told the Iraqi official that “anti-Iran separatists and anti-revolution agents should not find a safe haven in Iraq to threaten the Islamic Republic”.

Iran’s diplomatic spokesperson confirmed that “the fifth round of talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia in Baghdad was held [on 21 April]… with the efforts of the Iraqi government and the preparations and assistance of the Omani government”, adding: “The talks were forward-moving and positive”.

President Raisi told the Iraqi foreign minister that “Tehran seriously expects neighbouring countries, especially Iraq, not to allow anything that disrupts the security of the Islamic Republic of Iran, whether in areas controlled by the federal government or in areas controlled by the Kurdistan Region”. “Iran is closely watching the Zionist Regime’s [ie, Israel’s] actions… and we will not allow them to endanger the security of the region through any country, including Iraq”, he added. Raisi further emphasised that “the security of Iraq must be provided by the Iraqis themselves and that the presence of outsiders in Iraq does not provide security”. Relatedly, Foreign Minister Amirabdollahian told his Iraqi counterpart that “Iran cannot accept facing threats by the U.S., Israel as well as terrorist and separatist elements and seeing its security undermined through its own borders”.

The U.S.-led counter-ISIS coalition reported that “U.S. air defence systems shot down an armed aerial system entering Al Asad Air Base”, causing no injuries.

Kurdish security sources reported that three rockets had landed close to a refinery in Erbil; the owner’s house had been hit in a March ballistic missile strike claimed by the IRGC.

President Raisi told his Iraqi counterpart that “we consider the slightest insecurity in Iraq to be to the detriment of the whole region, so we welcome the realisation of the interests of the Iraqi people and the establishment of a strong government in this country”. He further highlighted that “we are determined to promote the level of relations and cooperation between the two countries in all fields… and lead to closer relations at the international level”. Raisi further contended that “any country in the region that neglects the hegemonic goals of the U.S. and the Zionist Regime [ie, Israel] will both disregard the interests of its nation and will spur Muslim nations’ anger”.

The U.S. sanctioned “five Iranian individuals and entities… for their involvement in Iran’s ballistic missile-related activities”. According to the State Department, the designation followed “Iran’s recent missile attack on Erbil, Iraq, as well as missile attacks by Iranian proxies against Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. These attacks are a reminder that Iran’s development and proliferation of ballistic missiles pose a serious threat to regional and international security”. Iran’s diplomatic spokesperson condemned the U.S. move as “continuation of the failed policy of maximum pressure”, asserting: “The U.S. claims to be ready to return to full implementation of its obligations under the nuclear deal, while it continues to significantly violate the UN Security Council resolution 2231”.

The U.S. confirmed a 120-day extension of sanctions waivers for Iraqi imports of Iranian electricity, asserting that “the waiver ensures that Iraq is able to meet its short-term energy needs while it takes steps to reduce its dependence on Iranian energy imports”.

An official from the U.S.-led counter ISIS coalition reported downing “several low-flying drones westward from the eastern border region of Iraq” on 14 February which could have been bound for Israel.

CENTCOM Commander Kenneth McKenzie indicated that “I do worry about… [military] exchanges between Iran and Israel because many times, our forces are at risk, whether we’re in Iraq or in Syria”.

Commenting on Iran’s 13 March missile attack against an alleged Israeli “strategic center for conspiracy” in Erbil, Iraq, an IRGC spokesperson asserted that “it is our natural right to destroy any base from which any attack is carried out against the security of Iran and this is a red line… If Iraqi officials do not take action to remove other bases… we will respond without hesitation”. He also claimed that the Israelis “had admitted themselves that [in mid-February] their drones, which flew over a [military] base in [Iran’s] Kermanshah [province], had taken off from their bases in Erbil”.

Iraqi security officials reported that four rockets had landed “in open areas in Balad air base, leaving no damage or casualties”.

CENTCOM Commander Kenneth McKenzie described Iran as “the greatest single day-to-day threat to regional security and stability”, noting that “the risk of miscalculation and escalation remains high because of Iran's strategic calculation that it can simultaneously and discretely engage in diplomacy with and a proxy campaign against the U.S.”. McKenzie's statement to a Senate committee further addressed the role of Iran and Iran-backed groups in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.

The IRGC declared that it had fired twelve ballistic missiles at what it described as an Israeli “strategic center for conspiracy” in Erbil, Iraq, in response to the killing on 7 March of two IRGC members in an alleged Israeli strike in Syria. Iran’s diplomatic spokesperson underlined that “Iran by no means accepts that one of its neighbours, who has deep relations and interaction with it, will be the centre of threat to Iran”. Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi called the event “an attack on the security of our people” and the foreign ministry summoned Iran’s ambassador to Baghdad. U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan condemned the attack “in the strongest terms”, indicated it had “targeted a civilian residence”, and asserted: “We will support the Government of Iraq in holding Iran accountable, and we will support our partners throughout the Middle East in confronting similar threats from Iran”. The State Department said “the strikes were an outrageous violation of Iraq’s sovereignty. No U.S. facilities were damaged or personnel injured, and we have no indications the attack was directed at the U.S.”. Secretary Blinken also spoke with Iraq’s prime minister.

During a visit to the UAE, CENTCOM Commander Kenneth McKenzie discussed Huthi attacks and assessed: “the equipment they are firing is certainly Iranian. If Iran didn’t approve this specific attack, they’re certainly morally responsible for it”. “The Iranians have accused the UAE of being involved in the Iraqi election. Iran needs culprits because the election didn’t go well for them,”, he added. “In Iraq in particular, Iran thought they had a political way forward to eject the U.S. from Iraq… now I think they’re grasping at alternatives, and some of those alternatives may be kinetic and violent”. McKenzie maintained that “my visit here, and to some degree repositioning, is all designed to send a very careful, calculated message that the U.S. is a reliable partner… We’ve got a lot of ships, we’ve got a lot of problems. We’ve always got an ability to help our friends”.

President Raisi told Iraq’s foreign minister that “the problems in the region are the result of the Americans' extravagance, and if they are expelled from the region in a real way, we will see that the countries of the region themselves can fully establish peace, stability and security by working together in the region”.

CENTCOM Commander Kenneth McKenzie assessed that “Tehran is well aware of our red lines [in Iraq], yet the evidence is also clear that many of these militia groups are trying in earnest to kill Americans with these attacks. Sooner or later, it’s almost inevitable that they will succeed, and Iran will provoke precisely what it seeks to avoid”. He also described Iran as a “main threat”, using “proxies to do its dirty work, by funnelling them arms and other resources”.

The Emirati defence ministry reported downing “three hostile drones that [had] penetrated the UAE’s airspace”. An Iraqi group claimed that they had fired “four drones targeting vital facilities in Abu Dhabi”.

The Iraqi military reported that six rockets had landed in Baghdad International Airport, near a base hosting U.S. forces, inflicting damage to two Iraqi civilian airplanes. Iran’s diplomatic spokesperson condemned the incident.

Iraqi security sources reported the downing of three drones bound for Balad airbase. The U.S.-led counter ISIS coalition maintained that “attacks on Iraqi installations are attacks on the Iraqi people. The Coalition maintains a minimal footprint on Iraqi locations to advise and assist but has no personnel at Balad”.

The Iraqi military reported that several rockets had targeted the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad; two were reportedly intercepted and two civilians injured in the incident. The Embassy confirmed that its “compound was attacked… by terrorist groups attempting to undermine Iraq’s security, sovereignty and international relations”, adding: “These sorts of reprehensible attacks are an assault not just on diplomatic facilities, but on the sovereignty of Iraq itself”.

IRGC Quds Force Commander Esmail Qaani contended that “all Americans will be expelled ... from this region… they must leave Iraq, otherwise; the resistance front inside Iraq will make the Americans miserable and they will have to leave Iraq under more humiliated [sic] conditions than what they experienced in Afghanistan”.

The U.S.-led counter-ISIS coalition reported that five rockets fell near the Ain al-Assad Air Base, followed by “an unidentified drone” that was downed on approaching the facility. The same day, the Iraqi military confirmed that a rocket had targeted a base with U.S. personnel at Baghdad International Airport. A coalition official emphasised that it “reserves the right to defend itself and partner forces against any threat”, adding: “our Coalition continues to see threats against our forces in Iraq and Syria by militia groups that are backed by Iran. These attacks are a dangerous distraction from our Coalition’s shared mission to advise, assist, and enable partner forces to maintain the enduring defeat of Daesh [ie, ISIS]”.

Iraqi security forces reported that “the Ain al-Assad Air Base… was targeted by two drones”, both of which “were shut [sic] down without casualties”. The U.S.-led counter-ISIS coalition asserted that “while we have ended our combat mission, we maintain the inherent right of self-defence”.

The U.S.-led ISIS-defeat coalition reported that “two fixed-wing suicide drones, or improvised cruise missiles, attempted to attack Baghdad [International] Airport… They were shot down without incident”.

Foreign Minister Amirabdollahian met with his Iraqi counterpart in Tehran and hailed “Baghdad’s initiative to host talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia”. He also announced that “last week, Saudi Arabia agreed to grant visas to three of our diplomats who will start work at the Organization of the Islamic Conference in Jeddah”. Amirabdollahian further indicated that “we offered a set of practical and constructive proposals to the Saudi side” in prior discussions, voicing hope that “the two countries’ delegations will meet in Baghdad in the near future and will work on the implementation of the next phase of the agreements”. Discussing the JCPOA negotiations, Iraq’s top diplomat posited: “the time has come for direct talks between Washington and Tehran to reach common understandings not just on the nuclear issue, but also on sanctions”.

Iraqi security forces reported that “the Green Zone in Baghdad was the target of two Katyusha rockets. The first was shot down… The second fell in a square, damaging two vehicles”.

CENTCOM Commander Kenneth McKenzie assessed that Iran-backed Iraqi militias “want all U.S. forces to leave, and all U.S. forces are not going to leave… that may provoke a response as we get later into the end of the month”. He further noted that “we’ve drawn down from bases we didn’t need, we’ve made it harder to get at us. But the Iraqis still want us to be there. … So as long as they want it, and we can mutually agree that’s the case – we’re going to be there”. McKenzie went on to assess that “Iran still pursues a vision of ejecting us [from the region]. And they see the principal battleground for that as being Iraq… they are under the view that they can increase friction in Iraq to where we will leave”. He further described Iran’s proliferation of missiles and drones as “very concerning… They show no signs of abating in their research in this field, and their fielding of new and increasingly lethal and capable weapons”.

U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan assessed that “since Donald Trump made the decision to pull the U.S. out of the Iran Nuclear Deal in 2018, Hizbollah has continued to menace Lebanon and the region. Iran’s proxies in Iraq and Syria and Yemen have continued to move forward. So, not being in the nuclear deal has hardly been a solution to the proxy”. He further asserted that “nothing about the nuclear deal stops the U.S.’s capacity to deal with those proxies. And we are prepared to do so”, adding: “ultimately, an Iran with a nuclear weapon is going to be a greater menace in partnerships with its proxies than Iran without one. And so it is our determination to ensure they never get a nuclear weapon, and diplomacy is the best way forward”.

The U.S. confirmed a 120-day extension of sanctions waivers for Iraqi imports of Iranian electricity, asserting that “the Secretary [of State] determined this waiver is in the national security interest of the U.S., and vital to the national security of the U.S., with respect to Iraq, and certifies that this jurisdiction faced exceptional circumstances preventing it from significantly reducing its purchases of petroleum and petroleum products from Iran”.

Iran’s ambassador to Iraq reported that IRGC Quds Force Commander Esmail Qaani in his meetings with Iraqi officials had “stressed the need to respect the election results”, “called on the Iraqi authorities to address electoral complaints within the framework of the law”, “expressed Iran’s support for the legal process of the elections and urged Iraqi protesters to cooperate with each other after the announcement of the final results”.

The Iraqi military reported a drone “assassination attempt” against Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi. President Biden “strongly” denounced the attack, offering “all appropriate assistance to Iraq’s security forces” in their investigation process. Too, the UN Security Council members voiced condemnation “in the strongest terms”, while expressing “support for the independence, sovereignty, unity, territorial integrity, democratic process and prosperity of Iraq”. Relatedly, a Pentagon official stated that “there are multiple groups operating inside Iraq that are that are backed by Iran, who are capable of these kinds of attacks”. The following day, Iran’s diplomatic spokesperson deplored the incident and asserted: “we must all help so that the culprits and the orchestrators of this incident are found… The path to stability in Iraq relies on such cooperation on the rule of law”. The same day, IRGC Quds Force Commander Esmail Qaani reportedly visited Iraq and met with the prime minister and other senior officials. 

Media reports citing unnamed Iraqi security sources indicated that three rockets had landed near Baghdad’s Green Zone; no casualties were reported.

Media reports citing unnamed Iraqi security sources indicated that three rockets had landed near Baghdad’s Green Zone; no casualties were reported.

A senior IRGC commander indicated that “we see some movements in the Iraqi Kurdistan region, and terrorist and anti-Islamic Revolution groups have set up bases”, warning that if Iraqi and Kurdish authorities failed to expel them Iran would “act in accordance with the duty to destroy their bases and headquarters”.

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett told the UN General Assembly that “Israel is, quite literally, surrounded by Hizbollah, Shiite militias, Islamic Jihad and Hamas... And they’re all backed by Iran. They get their funding from Iran, they get their training from Iran, and they get their weapons from Iran”. Bennett also said that “just this year, Iran made operational a new deadly terror unit — swarms of killer UAVs armed with lethal weapons that can attack any place any time… Iran plans to arm its proxies in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon with hundreds and then thousands of these deadly drones”.

Media reports cited Iraqi officials revealing that Iranian and Saudi officials had held talks in Baghdad the previous week, with one unnamed source indicating the two sides addressed “pending issues between the two countries according to a previously agreed on roadmap, including diplomatic representation between the two countries”.

Iran’s intelligence minister warned that “all counterrevolutionary elements and their supporters in the [Iraq’s Kurdish] region must know that in case of disrupting security of the Islamic Republic of Iran, they will face a decisive response from… [Iran’s] Armed Forces and security apparatus”. He also reportedly “urged Iraqi officials to expel the elements… and to disarm them at the earliest”.

Iran’s foreign minister joined senior officials from the Gulf in an Iraqi-chaired follow-up to the Baghdad Conference on Cooperation and Partnership, and remarked that Iran had “always emphasised that we need endogenous and indigenous security arrangements to create stability and security in the region”. Amirabdollahian underscored that “foreign presence and intervention in any form are contrary to the goals of peace and security in the region… the priority of the new government of the Islamic Republic of Iran is to strengthen and develop relations with its neighbours and the region”. According to Iran’s Foreign Ministry, attendees reiterated “their support for the Iraqi government and people… and stressed the need to solve them through cooperation and mutual benefit and in accordance with the principles of international law, good neighbourliness and non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries”.

President Joseph Biden and Iraqi President Barham Saleh discussed “strengthening the bilateral relationship and deepening cooperation on regional diplomatic initiatives”. According to the White House, Biden reiterated “the U.S. commitment to Iraq’s long-term stability” and praised “recent initiatives such as the Baghdad Regional Summit… as an important symbol of Iraq’s contributions to regional stability”.

A spokesperson for the U.S.-led counter-ISIS coalition underscored that “while we reorganise to an advisory and assist role by year’s end… we remain committed to our security cooperation and partnership with the Government of Iraq and Kurdistan Region of Iraq in the fight against Daesh [ie, ISIS] as we support a stable and secure Iraq”.

A senior U.S. intelligence official indicated that “in Iraq, Shiite militant groups pose the most immediate threat to U.S. interests. We have seen these militants conduct an increasing number of indirect fire and, in the past several months, unmanned aerial systems attacks against U.S. facilities with the objective of expelling U.S. forces from the country”.

Iraq’s foreign minister indicated that the 29 August Baghdad Conference for Cooperation and Partnership “would turn into a permanent platform to sustain dialogue between the concerned countries and to create a state of cooperation and stability in the regions building economic partnership, and protecting Iraq from external threats”.

Iran’s Intelligence Ministry announced that it had demolished “an anti-revolutionary team of terrorists” in north-western Iran, whom in claimed was “planning to carry out assassinations against military and law enforcement forces… extort money… [and] threaten and beat some local residents and prominent figures in the region”. According to the ministry, “a large volume of weapons and ammunition were also seized from the terrorist team”. The following day, the IRGC reported targeting “four headquarters of the anti-revolutionary groups… by precision-guided weapons in response to their movements on the border of our country with northern Iraq”. It also claimed that the groups were sponsored by “the adversary foreign intelligence services and some Arab states”.

President Raisi told Prime Minister al-Kadhimi that “Iran supports the role of Iraq in the region and we seek to institutionalise security in [the] region revolving around Iran, Iraq and neighbouring countries without intervention of foreign forces”. “The presence of foreign forces, especially Americans, in any of the countries in the region is detrimental to security and stability in the region and the implementation of the Iraqi parliament’s law on expelling American forces from the country can be useful in this regard”, he emphasised. The secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, separately expressed concerns to the Iraqi premier over “the growing movements of terrorist groups that have bases in the Iraqi Kurdistan region”, calling for “their immediate disarmament and expulsion from Iraq”.

The U.S.-led counter-ISIS coalition confirmed that “coalition forces at Erbil AB [Airbase] were attacked by two unmanned aircraft systems”, adding: “Force protection counter measures were used to defeat the drones. One UAS impacted inside perimeter; one UAS impacted outside perimeter” with no casualty or damage. An unnamed U.S. official said that the drones were Iranian-made.

The IRGC reported that it had “targeted terrorist positions in northern Erbil in the Iraq Kurdistan region with artillery and drones… in response to the infiltration attempts by terrorist teams belonging to the foreign-sponsored terrorist groups stationed in northern Iraq”.

A senior IRGC official asserted that “the Iraqi government and the Kurdistan Region should not allow terrorists to roam and set up headquarters in this land to threaten and create insecurity against Iran… We consider any negligence in this regard to be contrary to good neighbourliness and good relations between the two countries”. He further warned that “given the situation in the region and the possibility of a decisive and shocking response from the Islamic Republic of Iran to terrorist groups affiliated with the enemies of the Islamic Revolution that are hiding in northern Iraq, we ask the residents of these areas to stay away from the terrorist bases so that they are not harmed”.

The IRGC claimed to have “spotted and dismantled a terrorist team” that had infiltrated Iran’s western border, resulting in “several deaths and injuries” and a seizure of weapons.

At the Baghdad Conference for Cooperation and Partnership, Iranian Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian reiterated that “peace is possible only through dialogue and negotiation within the region”, and called for “mutual trust, reliance on national capabilities, strengthening relations and good neighbourliness as well as through the non-intervention of extra-regional governments”. He went on to describe Iran’s approach as “balanced, active and smart”. Amirabdollahian also discussed bilateral issues with senior Iraqi leaders including Prime Minister Al-Kadhimi and President Barham Salih.

Following an Iraqi invitation for Iranian attendance at a regional summit, President Raisi told Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi that “we consider it our pleasure to participate in this summit, and we will support any initiative that brings about stability in Iraq and increases the role of the country in the region”. “Foreign interference in the affairs of the region is neither a platform for security building and stability, nor a basis for development and progress”, Raisi argued. “Only the countries of the region can decide on the fate of the region”.

Meeting with Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hossein, President Raisi emphasised that “cooperation and synergy among the countries of the region, without the intervention of foreigners, are a necessary condition for the stability of regional security”. Hussein also extended Iraq’s invitation for Iranian participation in a summit that he said would “create a basis for dialogue between the countries of the region”. The Iraqi diplomat also met with other senior Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Javad Zarif.

The U.S. announced that it had “applied the measures authorised in Section 3 of the Iran, North Korea and Syria Nonproliferation Act” against, inter alia, Kataeb Hizbollah, Asaeb Ahl al-Haq and Lebanese Hizbollah.

Media reports citing an Iraqi official indicated that the U.S. had “granted Iraq a four-month extension to a sanctions waiver allowing it to import Iranian gas”.

Two rockets struck the Green Zone in Baghdad; no casualties were reported.

Ahead of a meeting with President Biden in Washington, Prime Minister al-Kadhimi maintained that “there is no need for any foreign combat forces on Iraqi soil”, adding: “the war against IS and the readiness of our forces requires a special timetable, and this depends on the negotiations that we will conduct in Washington”. “What we want from the U.S. presence in Iraq is to support our forces in training and developing their efficiency and capabilities, and in security cooperation”, he asserted. “Iraq has a set of American weapons that need maintenance and training. We will ask the American side to continue to support our forces and develop our capabilities”.

Prime Minister al-Kadhimi met with President Biden in Washington, with Biden noting that the U.S. was “not going to be, by the end of the year, in a combat mission” in Iraq. The two governments also issued a joint statement following a Strategic Dialogue led by their top diplomats, which noted that “the security relationship will fully transition to a training, advising, assistance and intelligence-sharing role, and there will be no U.S. forces with a combat role in Iraq by 31 December 2021”. The statement further noted Baghdad’s “commitment to protect Coalition personnel advising and enabling the Iraqi Security Forces”.

President Rouhani told Iraqi Prime Minister al-Kadhimi that “for the Islamic Republic of Iran, supporting [the] stability and security, independence and territorial integrity of Iraq has a special importance, and we consider the security and stability of Iraq as our own security, and we support the presence of this neighbouring Muslim country in regional interactions”. He further argued that U.S. “policy will not help bring security and stability to Iraq, but complicate the situation… The problems of the region must be resolved by the countries of the region themselves”.

Prime Minister al-Kadhimi met with a U.S. delegation led by the White House Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa, Brett McGurk. A statement from the premier’s office said that “mechanisms for the withdrawal of combat forces from Iraq and the transition to a new phase of strategic cooperation that develops the relationship between the two countries and enhances Iraq’s security and sovereignty were discussed”. 

A Pentagon spokesperson indicated that “without getting into attribution, many of these attacks [in Iraq] are conducted by militias that are backed by Iran, and we have made clear the degree to which Iran support for these militias needs to stop”. Asked to comment on media reports about a senior IRGC commander urging “Iraqi Shiite militias to step up attacks on U.S. targets during a meeting in Baghdad”, the spokesperson maintained that “we have made very clear our concern about these attacks, and the President’s firm commitment to protect the safety and security of our personnel in Iraq.  You have seen us act in the past in that regard, and we always retain the right of self-defence”.

A U.S. defence official confirmed what was described as “an indirect fire attack in Conoco”, a facility in eastern Syria where U.S. forces are located. There were “no casualties, injuries [or] structural damage” reported. 

A senior U.S. diplomat remarked that “I understand that some of these militias completely disagree with what the U.S. is trying to do in Iraq fighting ISIS, but we’re asking them, we’re demanding, that they just leave us along and we’ll leave them alone, so that we can fight this common enemy, which is ISIS”.

Iraqi security officials confirmed that three rockets had been fired toward Baghdad’s Green Zone, resulting in some material damage. The spokesperson for the U.S.-led counter-ISIS coalition maintained that “each attack against the GoI [Government of Iraq], KRI and the Coalition undermines the authority of Iraqi institutions, the rule of law and Iraqi National sovereignty”.

A Pentagon spokesperson said he was “deeply concerned” with respect to attacks against U.S. personnel and assets in Iraq and Syria, noting that “you’ve seen us retaliate appropriately when... safety and security has been threatened”. He added: “They’re using lethal weapons. I don’t know how you can say anything other than it’s a serious threat”. 

The spokesperson for the U.S.-led counter-ISIS coalition reported that “Ain al-Assad Air Base was attacked by fourteen rockets. The rockets landed on the base and perimeter”. He further reported “minor injuries” to two personnel at the facility, and Iraqi security forces confirmed "damages to local home and a Mosque”. The same day, the Syrian Democratic Forces reported thwarting a drone attack “on a base housing members of the U.S.-led coalition in eastern Syria”. 

The spokesperson for the U.S.-led counter-ISIS coalition reported that “one UAS impacted in [the] vicinity of Erbil Air Base, Iraq... no injuries, casualties or damage”. 

The spokesperson for the U.S.-led counter-ISIS coalition reported that “Ain al-Assad Air Base was attacked by three rockets. The rockets landed on the base perimeter. There are no injuries and damage is being assessed”. Later in the day, the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad confirmed having “engaged and eliminated an airborne threat”, identified as an armed drone.

In a letter to the president of the Security Council, Iran’s UN envoy insisted that “Iran has not been involved, directly or indirectly, in any armed attack by any entity or individual against U.S. personnel or facilities in Iraq”. The ambassador also condemned “in the strongest terms” 27 June U.S. airstrikes in Iraq and Syria, adding: “the argument of the U.S. that such attacks were conducted to deter the Islamic Republic of Iran and the so-called Iran-backed militia groups from conducting or supporting further attacks on U.S. personnel or facilities has no factual or legal ground, as it is founded on mere fabrication as well as arbitrary interpretation” of the UN charter.

Iraqi security forces reported foiling an attack intended to target military sites near Baghdad; ten missiles were seized and a suspect detained in the operation. A spokesperson for the U.S.-led counter-ISIS coalition underscored that the coalition “is committed to working cooperatively with our Iraqi partners to address rocket or drone threats, which undermine Iraq’s own sovereignty and stability, and threaten the security of Iraqi civilians”. He also noted that “Iraq’s leaders have reiterated to us their commitment to protecting ISF facilities hosting U.S. and coalition personnel”.

The Pentagon announced that it had carried out “defensive precision airstrikes against facilities used by Iran-backed militia groups in the Iraq-Syria border region”, noting that “these facilities are utilised by Iran-backed militias that are engaged in unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attacks against U.S. personnel and facilities in Iraq”. Secretary of State Antony Blinken asserted that “we took necessary, appropriate, deliberate action that is designed to limit the risk of escalation, but also to send a clear and unambiguous deterrent message”. An Iraqi defence official argued that the operation constituted “a blatant and unacceptable violation of Iraqi sovereignty”, and Iran’s foreign ministry maintained that the U.S. was “upsetting security in the region”. Later in the day, a spokesperson for the U.S.-led counter-ISIS coalition confirmed that “U.S. Forces in Syria were attacked by multiple rockets”, with no casualties reported, and subsequently announced that “U.S. Forces in Syria, while under multiple rocket attack, acted in self-defence and conducted counter-battery artillery fire at rocket launching positions”.

The foreign ministers of the Global Coalition to Defeat Daesh/ISIS issued a joint statement expressing their commitment “to strengthening cooperation across all Coalition lines of effort in order to ensure that Daesh/ISIS Core in Iraq and Syria”. On Iraq, they deplored “the continuing attacks against Coalition personnel and convoys, and diplomatic facilities, emphasising the importance of the Government of Iraq protecting Coalition assets”, while hailing “the incremental expansion of NATO’s non-combat advisory, training and capacity building mission”. Regarding Syria, the ministers backed “a lasting political settlement in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 2254”, while noting that “the Coalition continues to support inclusive local recovery and stabilisation in areas liberated from Daesh/ISIS and reconciliation and reintegration efforts to foster conditions conducive to a Syria-wide political resolution to the conflict under the parameters of UN Security Council Resolution 2254”.

The KRG reported that four “explosive-laden drones” had impacted near Erbil. The U.S. consulate denounced the attack and characterised it as “a clear violation of Iraqi sovereignty”.

The U.S. Department of Justice announced the seizure of “33 websites used by the Iranian Islamic Radio and Television Union (IRTVU) and three websites operated by Kataeb Hizbollah (KH), in violation of U.S. sanctions”. Iran’s diplomatic spokesperson condemned the move and said: “The current U.S. administration is exactly following the previous U.S. administration’s path, which will result in nothing but a double failure for Washington”.

The spokesperson for the U.S.-led counter-ISIS coalition confirmed a rocket attack on Ain al-Asad airbase; the rocket failed to detonate and no casualties were reported.

Iraqi security forces reported that three rockets had landed at Balad airbase; there were no injuries or material damage. Later in the day, the spokesperson for the U.S.-led counter-ISIS coalition cited Iraqi security forces when indicating that in a separate incident “Baghdad International Airport was targeted with three unmanned aerial vehicle[s], one of it [sic] was shot down”. A U.S. official stated that “there was no serious damage to the facilities or casualties attributed to the attacks… A small number of personnel were treated and released for smoke inhalation”.

CENTCOM Commander Kenneth McKenzie emphasised that “the U.S. force presence in Iraq is there at the invitation of the Government of Iraq, and our focus remains on completing the final destruction of Daesh [ISIS]”, adding that “our forces are there largely in a train/advise/assist mentoring role”. McKenzie further noted that “we are seeing pressure from Iranian-affiliated militant groups that want to push us out of Iraq, and the latest manifestation of that has been the use of small unmanned aerial systems, or drones. Some of them are very small, some are a little bit larger – all can be very lethal”. “Political pressure [toward a U.S. withdrawal] has not worked for them; now they’re turning to a kinetic approach. And that is very concerning to me”, he indicated. “We have a variety of measures there that we can defend ourselves, but… the primary responsibility for that defence is with the Government of Iraq. And they have done a number of things that have been very helpful to reduce the threat. Nonetheless, the threat is concerning and we will take whatever measures are necessary to defend ourselves”.

The Iraqi military reported that “air defences at… Ain al-Asad airbase that hosts U.S. Forces, intercepted and shot down two drones”. Relatedly, a spokesperson for the U.S.-led counter-ISIS coalition confirmed that “the Baghdad Diplomatic Support Center (BDSC) was attacked by one rocket round. The rocket impacted near the BDSC and caused no injuries or damage”. “Each attack against the GoI [Government of Iraq], KRI and the Coalition undermines the authority of Iraqi institutions, the rule of law and Iraqi National sovereignty”, he added.

Iraqi Prime Minister al-Kadhimi stated that he was “proud that Iraq’s relations with Iran are at their best now”, adding: “We have established balanced relations with all neighbours. No exchanges were made at the expense of another country, especially with Iran”. He also expressed “hope that the Iranian-Arab, Iranian-Saudi and even Iranian relationships with other countries of the region would grow… Iraq endeavours to pave the way, if requested to do so, to get the views of the conflicted parties in the region closer”. “Everyone thinks that there is an opportunity for stability”, al-Kadhimi asserted.  

The U.S. State Department expressed “outrage[] that peaceful demonstrators who took to the street [in Iraq] to urge reform were met with threats and brutal violence”, adding: “the violation of Iraqi sovereignty and rule of law by armed militias harms all Iraqis and their country”. It went to “welcome every effort by the government to hold accountable the militias, thugs and vigilante groups for their attacks against Iraqis exercising their right to freedom of expression and peaceful assembly as well as for their assault on the rule of law”.

The spokesperson for the U.S.-led counter-ISIS coalition reported that “Ain al-Asad airbase was attacked by one rocket round. No injuries reported. Damage is being assessed”. “Each attack against the Government of Iraq, KRG and Coalition undermines the authority of Iraqi institutions, the rule of law and Iraqi national sovereignty”, he added.

CENTCOM Commander Kenneth McKenzie met with Iraqi Prime Minister al-Kadhimi and underscored that U.S. “support to the Iraqi Security Forces continues to evolve as they expand their ability to plan and conduct operations independently. Today, we have a relatively small U.S. footprint here – all at the invitation of the Government of Iraq – that is focused on advising, equipping and assisting the ISF”. Speaking with reporters, McKenzie raised concerns over the increasing use of drones by Iranian-backed militias and maintained: “We’re working very hard to find technical fixes that would allow us to be more effective against drones… Still, I don’t think we’re where we want to be”. He further assessed that the militias “believe they can carry out attacks at a fairly low level that won’t provoke a response, yet will create enough friction that will eventually induce us to leave. I think it’s a dangerous situation”.

President Rouhani told Iraqi Prime Minister al-Kadhimi that “the Americans have always had a destructive role in the region and their presence in Iraq will not contribute to the country’s security and stability in any way”. According to an Iranian readout, Rouhani further commended “Baghdad’s positive role in intervening to resolve disputes among regional states”.

Iran’s foreign ministry summoned the Iraqi ambassador and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif spoke to his Iraqi counterpart after an attack against the Iranian consulate in Karbala. A spokesperson said that “Iran strongly condemns the attack on its diplomatic missions in Iraq and… hopes that the Iraqi government will fulfill its obligations to protect and safeguard Iran’s diplomatic missions”.

The spokesperson for the U.S.-led counter-ISIS coalition reported that “Ain al-Asad airbase was attacked by an unmanned aerial surveillance system. No injuries reported. A hanger was damaged”. “Each attack against the GoI [Government of Iraq], KRG and Coalition undermines the authority of Iraqi institutions, the rule of law and Iraqi national sovereignty”, he added.

Iraqi President Barham Salih confirmed that Baghdad had hosted talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia “more than once”. “It is ongoing, and it is important and it is significant, and for Iraq to be able to play that convening role between these regional actors is important”, he added.

Citing Iraqi security officials, the spokesperson for the U.S.-led counter-ISIS coalition indicated that “two Katyusha rockets landed in an empty square at Ain Al-Asad Air Base… No casualties or material losses”. The spokesperson added that “each attack against the GoI [Government of Iraq], KRG and Coalition undermines the authority of Iraqi institutions, the rule of law and Iraqi national sovereignty”.

The Iraqi military reported that four rockets had struck Balad airbase. 

The Iraqi military reported that two rockets had targeted Baghdad International Airport.

CENTCOM Commander Kenneth McKenzie underlined that “we were in Iraq at the request of the government of Iraq… And we’re there to continue the fight against ISIS, along with many coalition partners who are there with us. That fight is not yet completed, although we’re pleased to see that the Iraqi Security Forces have now moved into the lead”. “Our mission has… shifted from a mission of direct combat to one of more support for them, training, advising, assisting, often at a very high level”, he added, while noting: “Our future in Iraq will be determined by negotiations and consultation with the government of Iraq going forward. But I don’t believe we're going to be leaving Iraq”. McKenzie further assessed that “the government of Iraq has been very aggressive and very proactive in taking measures to defend us at the various bases that we are located in inside Iraq… They are not always successful. And the Iranian proxy groups that operate inside Iraq are, in fact, a direct threat ultimately to the sovereignty of Iraq. Even as they threaten us, so do they threaten the government of Iraq”.

CENTCOM Commander Kenneth McKenzie assessed that “while diplomatic efforts are underway to address Iran’s nuclear program and other destabilising activities, we should be very clear that we remain in a state of contested deterrence with Iran, which continues to play a dangerous game by supporting proxies and affiliated groups in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen”. McKenzie added: “These groups are often willing to take risks that Tehran is not. So long as Iran continues its material support for these groups, the region will not know true stability and security”.

Foreign Minister Javad Zarif met with his Iraqi counterpart and thanked Baghdad “for its efforts to establish dialogue in the region”, adding: “we hope that these efforts will lead to more serious dialogues in the region”. Zarif went on to say: “All of us will always be together in this region and we must build our relations based on friendship, brotherhood and good neighbourliness, respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity and non-interference in internal affairs, and this is the policy of the Islamic Republic in this region”. Zarif also met with President Barham Salih, who noted that “there should be a joint coordination and collaboration, where there could be further dialogue to bridge the difference and to put an end to the conflicts and disputes” in the region. The following day, Zarif visited Erbil and met with senior Kurdistan Regional Government officials. According to an Iranian media reports, Zarif and the KRG prime minister underlined “the need for spread of stability and calm in Iraq as well as not-allowing anti-Iranian measures in [the] Iraqi Kurdistan region”.

U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken conferred with the Kurdistan Regional Government’s prime minister on “continued attacks on Iraqi, U.S. and Coalition forces”. “These attacks represent an egregious violation of Iraqi sovereignty”, the two officials noted.

Media reports citing Iraq security sources indicated that "at least three rockets landed in the perimeter of Baghdad International Airport".

CENTCOM Commander Kenneth McKenzie assessed that “Iran still pursues a policy of attempting to eject the U.S., and indeed our partners and allies from the region as well, and that's principally fought out in the battleground that is Iraq for them”. “Over most of 2020”, he added, “they thought they had a political solution to force the U.S. out of Iraq… that is no longer the case, it’s evident from the recent Strategic Dialogue and from other signals we receive from the Government of Iraq”. McKenzie went on to posit that “you might see kinetic events spring up as a result of that in Iraq. But that is different from the larger Iranian desire to avoid a state-on-state conflict with the U.S.”

U.S. CENTCOM Commander Kenneth McKenzie reported that “since the beginning of the year, Iranian-aligned militia groups (IAMGs) in Iraq and Syria likely conducted more than 50 improvised explosive device attacks against Iraqi-operated, Coalition-contracted logistical convoys, and nine indirect fire attacks against U.S. diplomatic facilities or Iraqi military bases hosting U.S. and Coalition personnel”. McKenzie further noted that Iran “uses a combination of coercion and IAMG violence to bring about the removal of U.S. forces from Iraq, despite U.S. and Coalition forces being in Iraq at the request of the Government of Iraq (GoI). Iran’s political maneuverings toward this end have failed to date, while the U.S. and GoI continue strategic dialogue to maintain momentum in the Global Defeat ISIS (D-ISIS) campaign”.

Commenting on media reports of Iran-Saudi talks in Baghdad, Iran’s diplomatic spokesperson noted “conflicting quotes”, adding: “Iran has always welcomed dialogue with the Saudi kingdom and considered it in the interest of the peoples of the two countries as well as regional peace and stability. [Iran] will continue to think this way”.

Iraqi security sources confirmed that five rockets targeted Balad air base, injuring two. The U.S.-led counter-ISIS coalition noted that “there are no Coalition/U.S. Forces stationed” at the base.

The U.S., along with France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom, denounced “in the strongest terms the 14 April attacks in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region”. “We are united in our view that attacks on U.S. and Coalition personnel and facilities will not be tolerated and reiterate our steadfast commitment to the fight against ISIS”, the five countries noted.

President Rouhani spoke with Iraqi President Barham Salih and underlined that “strengthening the dignity, authority and independence of Iraq, and promoting the country’s regional and international position is especially important for us”. “We oppose any foreign interference in the internal affairs of Iraq and we consider it to the detriment of the country and the whole region, and believe that regional security should be ensured by the countries of the region”, Rouhani asserted, adding: “The Americans have always played a destructive role in the region, and the presence of American troops in the region has not helped to bring peace and stability in any way”.

Media reports citing Kurdish officials reported that “a rocket landed near a U.S. base at Erbil airport”. The Kurdistan Regional Government subsequently issued a statement indicating that the “Erbil International Airport attack was conducted by a drone [and] targeted the military section of the airport where U.S.-led coalition are stationed. No casualties… but damage caused to one warehouse”. The State Department’s spokesperson said he was “outraged by reports of attacks in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region. The Iraqi people have suffered for far too long from this kind of violence and violation of their sovereignty”.

The U.S. Intelligence Community’s 2021 Annual Threat Assessment asserted that “Iran will remain a problematic actor in Iraq, which will be the key battleground for Iran’s influence… and Iranian-supported Iraqi Shiite militias will continue to pose the primary threat to U.S. personnel in Iraq”. “The Iraqi Government almost certainly will continue to struggle to… control Iranian-backed Shiite militias”, the report added. “Iranian-backed Shiite militias are likely to continue attacks against U.S. targets… to press U.S. forces to leave if the Iraqi Government does not reach an agreement with Washington on a timetable for withdrawal”.

Iraq’s National Security Advisor met with senior Iranian officials in Tehran. Foreign Minister Javad Zarif contended that “foreign forces must leave the region” while affirming Iranian’s support for Iraq’s “independence, security, territorial integrity and national sovereignty of Iraq”. In a separate meeting, Iranian Defence Minister Amir Hatami asserted that “the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq within the framework of the wise legislation approved by this country’s parliament will help the establishment and improvement of security and stability in Iraq and the region”.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his Iraqi counterpart convened for a U.S.-Iraq Strategic Dialogue. A joint statement noted that “based on the increasing capacity of the ISF [Iraqi Security Forces], the parties confirmed that the mission of U.S. and Coalition forces has now transitioned to one focused on training and advisory tasks, thereby allowing for the redeployment of any remaining combat forces from Iraq, with the timing to be established in upcoming technical talks”. The communique also noted Baghdad’s “commitment to protect the Global Coalition’s personnel, convoys and diplomatic facilities”.

The Iraqi military confirmed that two rockets landed near Balad air base; no casualties were reported.

The U.S. State Department confirmed that it had extended Iraq’s sanctions waiver for Iranian energy imports by 120 days, adding: “The waiver ensures that Iraq is able to meet its short-term energy needs while it takes steps to reduce its dependence on Iranian energy imports”. 

During a visit to Saudi Arabia, Iraqi Prime Minister al-Kadhimi asserted that “we don’t accept or allow any aggression or attack on the kingdom of Saudi Arabia from Iraqi territories”, adding: “There were not any attacks from Iraq” against Saudi Arabia.

The foreign ministers of the Global Coalition to Defeat Daesh/ISIS Small Group issued a communique reiterating “shared determination to continue the fight against Daesh/ISIS in Iraq and Syria, and to create conditions for an enduring defeat of the terrorist group”. The ministers expressed “unwavering commitment to continue close cooperation with and support to the Government of Iraq” and asserted that “attacks against Coalition forces and Iraqi partners, such as those that occurred in Erbil, Baghdad and al-Asad, are unacceptable and compromise our collective efforts at the expense of the people of Iraq”. The statement went on to say that “the Coalition stands with the Syrian people in support of a lasting political settlement in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 2254. The Coalition must continue to be vigilant against the threat of terrorism, in all its forms and manifestations… to avoid security vacuums that Daesh/ISIS may exploit”.

Israel’s National Security Council released an assessment warning that “Iran will continue to operate in the near future to harm Israel targets”, noting the UAE, Bahrain and Kurdish areas in Iraq as theatres of concern. The NSC’s statement also noted that “officials in India have determined that Iran was behind the bombing” in January near Israel’s embassy.

The KRG confirmed multiple rockets targeting Peshmerga bases on the boundary of the Kurdish region.

Marking the second anniversary of ISIS’s territorial defeat, the U.S. State Department asserted that “our mission is far from complete. The Global Coalition remains united in its determination to see this enemy destroyed and will continue its efforts against the group in Iraq, Syria, and other countries”.

U.S. Special Representative for Iran Rob Malley indicated that “it’s not really helping the climate in the U.S. to have Iranian allies take shots at Americans in Iraq or elsewhere, and the U.S. will respond as it has responded and it will continue to respond”, adding: “If... these are [Iranian] tactics aimed at speeding things up, it’s hard to see how that is going to work”. Malley further noted that “the JCPOA has shown that it is fragile, and we believe it can be strengthened with a follow-on deal. And we will press Iran and try to convince Iran that it’s in their interest as well to get a follow-on deal… Of course, Iran will have issues that it will want to bring to the table.

Foreign Minister Javad Zarif remarked that “we are prepared to talk to our neighbours in the region. The UN can provide an umbrella under UNSC Resolution 598, which gives our neighbours in the southern Persian Gulf the assurance that there will be an international umbrella”. “Some of our neighbours in the Persian Gulf have always tried to buy security through proxies”, he argued. “Now they want Netanyahu to be their proxy... What Netanyahu will do is to bring the war to their territory”.

Iraqi security officials confirmed that multiple rockets had targeted Balad air base; no casualties were reported.

Iran’s UN envoy wrote to the UN Secretary-General maintaining that “Iran has not been directly or indirectly involved in any armed attack against any U.S. individual or body in Iraq... we deny any claim about our implicit or explicit involvement in attacks against American forces in Iraq”. He also deplored “the U.S.’s unlawful attack on 25 February against Iraqi forces along the Syrian border”, warning: “Such attacks only exacerbate the already tense situation of the region, and in effect only serve the interests of terrorist groups in these countries”.

President Rouhani asserted that “Iran is ready to resolve… [regional] crises in the form of regional cooperation and by strengthening the role of the United Nations”. “We are against foreign interference in Iraq’s internal affairs, deeming it to the detriment of Iraq and the region as a whole, and blaming Iran in the recent events in Iraq is not a constructive approach”, Rouhani added. “The Iranian government is suspicious of the recent attacks on coalition bases in Iraq, and has asked the Iraqi government to look into the matter”. Discussing the Yemen war, Rouhani reiterated that “there is no military solution to this crisis”, adding: “while proposing a four-article initiative, [Iran] has used its full capacity to advance UN efforts in Yemen, and it supports any attempt to put an end to the aggression against the Yemeni people”.

Speaking with Iraqi Prime Minister al-Kadhimi, President Rouhani asserted that “Iran’s [blocked] assets in Iraq should immediately be released”. He also contended that “the acceleration of implementing the Iraqi parliament’s resolution regarding expelling American troops from the country can help establish peace and stability in the country and the region”. “Regional issues and problems need to be resolved by regional countries themselves”, Rouhani emphasised, while voicing “Iran’s readiness for cooperation with regional countries… with the aim of preserving security and peace”.

The Pentagon confirmed that “approximately ten rockets” were fired at an Iraqi military base hosting U.S. forces; one U.S. civilian contractor died after “a cardiac episode while sheltering”. A U.S. diplomatic spokesperson maintained that “we have demonstrated our resolve to take necessary and proportionate action in self-defense where appropriate… we responded to recent attacks by Iran-backed militias on coalition U.S. forces in a manner that was calculated, proportionate and fully covered by legal authorities. I think you will see the same hallmarks of any forthcoming responses”.

Commenting on 25 February U.S. airstrikes against “infrastructure used by Iranian-backed militant groups” in eastern Syria, a U.S. military spokesperson reported that the operation had killed “one fighter and wounded two others, in addition to destroying nine buildings”. He emphasised that “this was really designed to do two things: to remove that compound from their utilisation of it as an entry control point from Syria into Iraq, and two, to send a very strong signal that we are not going to tolerate attacks on our people and on our Iraqi partners”. 

Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein visited Tehran. Foreign Minister Javad Zarif told his counterpart that Iran denounced “the U.S.’s dangerous move to attack Iraqi forces in [the] border areas of Iraq and Syria”. Zarif also characterised “recent attacks and events in Iraq” as “suspicious”, contending that “they could be aimed at disrupting Tehran-Baghdad relations as well as security and stability in Iraq”. According to an Iranian readout, the Iraqi minister “expressed Baghdad’s readiness to facilitate Tehran’s access to its financial assets” and “gave assurances that the Iraqi government will not allow the recent incidents in Iraq to affect the very good relations between the two sides”.

The Pentagon confirmed that “at President Biden’s direction, U.S. military forces… conducted airstrikes against infrastructure utilised by Iranian-backed militant groups in eastern Syria. These strikes were authorised in response to recent attacks against American and Coalition personnel in Iraq, and to ongoing threats to those personnel”. “This proportionate military response”, the statement added, “was conducted together with diplomatic measures, including consultation with Coalition partners”, while noting: “We have acted in a deliberate manner that aims to de-escalate the overall situation in both eastern Syria and Iraq”. The Syrian government denounced the action as “a coward[ly] aggression”, while Iran’s foreign ministry referred to it as “illegal aggression” by the U.S.

President Biden spoke with Iraqi Prime Minister al-Kadhimi, reiterating “U.S. support for Iraq’s sovereignty and independence”. The two leaders further conferred on “the recent rocket attacks against Iraqi and Coalition personnel and agreed that those responsible for such attacks must be held fully to account”.

Citing Iraqi security sources, the spokesperson for the U.S.-led coalition indicated “that two rockets fell on the [Baghdad] Green Zone without causing casualties”. Media reports citing Iraqi officials suggested that “one rocket fell within the perimeter of the vast U.S. embassy complex”.

The Iraqi military confirmed that multiple rockets had targeted Balad airbase, injuring one person reportedly working for a U.S. contractor.

The U.S.-led counter-ISIS coalition confirmed that three rockets had struck Erbil Air Base (EAB), out of fourteen launched. A spokesperson reported one fatality and nine injuries, including five U.S. nationals, one of whom was a service member. The State Department said it was “outraged” at the attack, while underscoring that “we reserve the right to respond at a time and place of our choosing, consistent with our partnership with the people and the government of Iraq”. Iraqi President Barham Salih described the incident as “a dangerous escalation and a criminal terrorist attack”. Iran’s diplomatic spokesperson asserted that Tehran “flatly condemns suspicious attempts to attribute the attack to Iran”, adding: “Iran regards Iraq’s stability and security as a key issue for the region and neighbouring countries, and dismisses any move that would disrupt tranquility and order in this country”. 

Meeting with the Qatari foreign minister in Tehran, President Rouhani asserted that “we remain committed to the Hormuz Peace Endeavour (HOPE) initiative and believe that peace and stability in the region will not be achieved except through cooperation and dialogue between the countries of the region, and it is the countries of the region that must decide for their own”.

Unconfirmed media reports indicated that suspected Israeli drone strikes targeted “a weapons shipment making its way from Iraq to Syria”.

President Rouhani underlined that “Iran is ready to talk with all countries in the region and its neighbours, especially the Persian Gulf littoral countries, from Iraq to the six southern countries in accordance with UNSC Resolution 598, and settle regional problems and issues”. The following day, Foreign Minister Javad Zarif reaffirmed “readiness for engagement and cooperation towards shared goals and objectives with our neighbours”, while indicating: “Our consistent aim in all our endeavors has been to build a more stable, peaceful and prosperous region”. “I hope that our neighbours will have learned that they cannot bank on outsiders to provide them with security. We need to rely on each other as geography promises that we will remain neighbours forever”, he added.

Iraq’s foreign minister visited Tehran and met with senior Iranian officials. President Rouhani told him that “supporting stability, security, independence, territorial integrity, as well as dignity and authority of Iraq, and promoting its regional and international status are of special priority”. He further objected to “any foreign interference in the internal affairs of Iraq”. According to an Iranian readout, the foreign minister asserted that “Baghdad is persistently pursuing the withdrawal of foreign troops from Iran, and this is being done through negotiations and actions that have been taken”. In a separate meeting, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, contended that “the main cause of instability and crisis in the region is the evil presence of foreign forces, especially American forces”, while emphasising “the vitality of implementing Iraq’s ratified law about ousting the U.S. troops”.

The Iraqi military confirmed that three rockets had targeted Baghdad International Airport; no casualties were reported.

Iran’s diplomatic spokesperson condemned a suicide bombing in Baghdad claimed by ISIS, arguing: “Takfiri terrorism… is targeting Iraq again and seeks to disrupt tranquility and stability in this country and create a pretext for continued presence of foreigners”. He further maintained that “Iran stands ready to offer Iraq whatever help and assistance in the fight against terrorism and extremism”. The U.S. also condemned the attack, calling it “a reprehensible act of cowardice that underscores the dangers of terrorism that millions of Iraqis continue to face”.

Foreign Minister Javad Zarif maintained that Iran would “respond positively to any initiative for regional dialogue advanced in good faith”. He also contended that “neither the U.S. nor its European allies have the prerogative to lead or sponsor future talks. Rather, the Persian Gulf region needs an inclusive regional mechanism to encourage diplomacy and cooperation and to lower the risk of miscalculation and conflict”. He further referred to Iran’s Hormuz Peace Endeavor (HOPE) proposal and said: “The invitation is still on the table”.

The U.S. completed a troop level reduction to 2,500 in Iraq, which it described as “reflective of the increased capabilities of the Iraqi Security Forces”. The Pentagon also reduced its force level in Afghanistan to the same number, maintaining that the action “is an indication of the U.S.’s continued support towards the Afghan peace process and our adherence to commitments made in both the U.S.-Taliban agreement and the U.S.-Afghanistan Joint Declaration”. “While the Department continues with planning capable of further reducing U.S. troop levels to zero by May of 2021, any such future drawdowns remain conditions-based”, the statement added.

The U.S. designated an Iraqi identified as “the former secretary general of Kataib Hizbollah”, a PMU militia, as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT). According to the State Department, the individual was “working in conjunction with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – Quds Force to reshape official Iraqi state security institutions away from their true purpose of defending the Iraqi state and fighting ISIS, to instead support Iran’s malign activities”.

The U.S. designated the “Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Committee (PMC) Chairman… for his connection to serious human rights abuse”. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stated that “Iran-aligned PMC forces continue to wage a murderous campaign against political activists in Iraq… today’s action is a clear message that the U.S. stands with the Iraqi people in their pursuit of freedom, justice and democracy”. Iraq’s Foreign Ministry subsequently asserted that “the decision was an unacceptable surprise”, adding that it would “follow up with the current and new administration in Washington all decisions issued by the U.S. Treasury Department against Iraqi names”.

Prime Minister al-Kadhimi remarked that “it is truly regrettable that Iraq… has turned into an arena for settlement and challenges of a global and regional war on its soil. We have a duty to protect our country from the repercussions of this dangerous conflict”. 

Iran’s diplomatic spokesperson maintained that “the actions and moves and some mischief of the U.S. are not hidden from our eyes, and our intelligence, security and military services are fully aware of the seemingly secret moves of the U.S. in the region and Iraq”. “The messages have been clearly conveyed to Washington and the countries of the region”, he added, while reiterating “the role of the agents and allies of the Zionist regime [ie, Israel] can be seen in some tensions, especially in Iraq”.

The U.S. extended Iraq’s sanctions waiver for Iranian energy imports by 90 days.

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif tweeted that “new intelligence from Iraq indicates that Israeli agent-provocateurs are plotting attacks against Americans – putting an outgoing Trump in a bind with a fake casus belli. Be careful of a trap, President Trump. Any fireworks will backfire badly”. An Israeli minister called Zarif’s claim “total nonsense”, adding: “It is a warning sign that Iran is taking aim at Israel looking for excuses to lash out at Israel, and therefore we need to have our finger on the pulse and be at the highest state of alert”.

The Iraqi military reported that it had dismantled a naval mine found attached to an Iraqi oil tanker.

Iran wrote to the UN Security Council objecting to increased U.S. “military adventurism… in the Persian Gulf and the Oman Sea”. “Coupled with a series of systematic disinformation campaign, unfounded accusations and inflammatory statements and threats… such confrontational measures have further deteriorated the already tense security environment of this highly volatile region”, the letter added. “If unchecked, such warmongering tendencies could escalate the situation to an alarming level, and it is self-evident that the U.S. shall bear the full responsibility for all consequences”. Relatedly, Foreign Minister Javad Zarif claimed that “intelligence from Iraq indicate plot to fabricate pretext for war”, asserting: “Iran doesn’t seek war but will openly and directly defend its people, security and vital interests”. Relatedly, media reports indicated that “the U.S. has seen increasing indications that Iran could be planning an attack against American forces or interests in the Middle East”, with an unnamed U.S. official describing Iran’s intentions as “difficult and at times unpredictable” to assess.

Media reports citing Iraqi security officials indicated that “an improvised explosive device detonated near a convoy belonging to an Iraqi company providing logistical support to U.S. coalition forces”; “minor damage” was reported.

The Iranian ambassador to Iraq described bilateral relations as “constructive and positive in all areas… We will not interfere in the affairs of Iraq and we have never imposed our policies”. The ambassador further underscored: “Iran has never been involved in targeting the U.S. embassy… We do not support any side in targeting the U.S. embassy. We do not want Iraq to be a battleground for combating the U.S.”. He also suggested that “revenge for the assassination of General Soleimani is not a military action necessarily, rather, the expulsion of American forces from the region can be revenge for General Soleimani’s blood”. 

The Iraqi electricity ministry’s spokesperson reported that Iran had “reduced gas exports to Iraq to five million cubic metres from 50 million cubic metres” and informed Iraqi authorities about further cuts “to three million cubic metres”. “We strongly encourage Iraq’s finance ministry to resolve the unpaid bills with Iran to avoid critical shortages of power supplies in Baghdad and other cities”, he added. The following day, the National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC) confirmed that Iraq owed Iran $6 billion in either unpaid or frozen payments. During a 29 December visit to Baghdad, Iran’s energy minister met with his counterpart and the two sides reached an agreement seeing Iran “urgently resume gas pumping”; the Iranian minister also revealed that “good agreements were reached… to withdraw Iranian funds from Iraq to pay for the purchase of the coronavirus vaccine from Europe using Iran’s existing financial resources in Iraq”. “We hope to use our existing financial resources in Iraq more quickly to purchase basic goods and other needed items in the near future”, he further indicated.

Media reports indicated that “a roadside bomb… hit a convoy carrying logistic support for the U.S.-led Global Coalition in Iraq”.

An Israeli military spokesperson was cited as indicating that “Israel is monitoring Tehran’s movement in the region and expects that an Iranian attack could come from Iraq and Yemen… as Iran’s second circle after Lebanon and Syria”. “Iran has developed a wide range of capabilities in the area – and specifically in Iraq and Yemen – that include advanced drones and remote-guided missiles, which they manage to operate without detection”, he added. “Everyone should be on high alert regarding the Iranian threat… considering the many blows Iran has received in the past year without being able to properly respond”. A Huthi official subsequently warned that if Israel “makes any reckless move or action that affects Yemen, then any interests of this entity or its partners in the Red Sea will be a legitimate target”. An Iranian official also told media that “Tehran’s response to any attack on national security will be strong and wide”, assessing that Israel “is looking for excuses to drag the region into tension that will create chaos”.

Media reports indicated that senior U.S. officials convened and developed options for “deterring any attack on U.S. military or diplomatic personnel in Iraq” following a 20 December rocket attack in Baghdad. An unnamed official said with respect to the proposals due to be submitted for President Trump’s consideration: “Each one is designed to be non-escalatory and to deter further attack”. 

President Trump tweeted that “our embassy in Baghdad got hit Sunday by several rockets. Three rockets failed to launch. Guess where they were from: IRAN. Now we hear chatter of additional attacks against American in Iraq”. “Some friendly health advice to Iran", Trump added. “If one American is killed, I will hold Iran responsible”. Relatedly, U.S. Central Command issued a statement asserting that the attack “was almost certainly conducted by an Iranian-backed rogue militia group”, adding: “These groups are Iranian-backed because Iran provides both material support and direction. They are rogue because they are actually acting on behalf of Iranian interests and direction in a direct betrayal of Iraqi sovereignty”. The statement went on to warn that “the U.S. will hold Iran accountable for the deaths of any Americans that result from the work of these Iranian-backed rogue militia groups”. Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said Trump had referred to “a worthless photo to recklessly accuse Iran” and warned that “Trump will bear full responsibility for any adventurism on his way out”.

Media reports indicated that IRGC Quds Force Commander Qaani had visited Baghdad and met with senior Iraqi officials.

CENTCOM Commander Kenneth McKenzie assessed that “we remain in a period of heightened risk… I would just emphasise this key point: We’re not looking to escalate ourselves. We’re not looking for war with Iran, I really want to emphasise that”, adding: “It is my belief that Iran doesn’t want a war with the U.S. right now”. McKenzie also noted that “launching over 20 rockets at the U.S. embassy [in Baghdad] is certainly an escalation”.

CENTCOM Commander Kenneth McKenzie contended that “the Iranians have never doubted our capability to respond...But they’ve often doubted our will to respond. I think that the Soleimani episode last January sort of set them back and they had to recalculate the will of the U.S.”. He further opined that “the death of Soleimani unhinged Iran’s ability to direct these [Iraqi militia] units forcefully… there’s actually a lot more dissonance between these groups and among these groups as they go forward”. This was “not necessarily a bad thing”, McKenzie said, though “it also opens the door for people to make an unapproved attack”.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remarked that “the lifting of sanctions is in the hands of the enemy, but nullifying them is in our hands… of course we do not mean that we should not seek to have the sanctions lifted, because if the sanctions can be lifted, we should not hesitate for even an hour”. Khamenei also predicted “severe slaps to come”, referring to “expelling the U.S. from the region”; he further indicated that “revenge must be taken on those who ordered the [January 2020] murder of General Soleimani as well as those who did it”. “Do not trust the enemy”, Khamenei warned. “The hostilities are not particular to Trump’s America for this to end when he leaves office”.

Marking “the third anniversary of the defeat of ISIS”, the U.S. ambassador to Iraq underscored “the need to remain vigilant to ensure that the defeat of ISIS is a permanent defeat” and noted that the U.S. was “moving to the next phase of our mission in Iraq, where the U.S. is reducing its military presence while the Iraqi security forces are increasingly taking the lead in the fight against ISIS remnants”.

Media reports citing an unnamed U.S. defence official indicated that “Iranian-backed militias in Iraq have moved to a ‘heightened level of preparation’”, though “there are no specific indications that any decision to attack has been made”.

Media reports indicated that “two convoys transporting logistical equipment for the U.S.-led coalition… were targeted with roadside bombs”.

Iran’s ambassador to Iraq confirmed that IRGC Quds Force Commander Qaani had visited Baghdad to meet with Prime Minister al-Kadhimi, President Salih and other senior Iraqi officials, highlighting that Qaani “continues the same mission pursued by his predecessor General Qassem Soleimani”. The envoy insisted that “Iran’s movements in Iraq have taken place in the context of strengthening the government and encouraging political factions and movements to integrate”. He further described “the U.S. presence as the source of threats to the region… [which] must end with the withdrawal of U.S. forces”, adding: “Resistance groups have a serious problem with the Americans. Trump should not threaten or provoke anyone… If they act against the resistance groups, [the resistance groups] will surely respond”.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo named “two missions” for the U.S. in Iraq: “Continue the campaign to make sure that ISIS doesn’t raise its ugly head again, and second, to work to make sure that the leadership in Iraq was on the right mission, was focused on its independence and sovereignty and the freedom to be out from under the jackboot of the Iranian regime”. Pompeo further noted that “Iraq’s leadership has a responsibility to my team, to our diplomatic team, and to those… who have embassies in the Green Zone as well, to do the hard work to make sure that those diplomatic posts are safe and secure. And when they can do that, we’re happy to be present and to work. When they can’t, we’re going to do the right thing for our own security posture, all the while making sure that we are fully committed to the sovereignty and independence of Iraq”.

Reacting to media reports regarding a U.S. decision “to withdraw some staff from its embassy in Baghdad”, a U.S. diplomat maintained that “the State Department continually adjusts its diplomatic presence at embassies and consulates throughout the world in line with its mission, the local security environment, the health situation and even the holidays”.

Media reports citing Iraqi officials indicated that “an air strike killed a commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards at the Iraq-Syria border” along with three individuals accompanying him; the vehicle was said to have been “carrying weapons across the Iraqi border”. Iran’s diplomatic spokesperson subsequently indicated that the news “seems more of a media propaganda”.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo indicated that “we want a free, independent Iraq.  You can see it.  You can see it in the protests in Iraq…  They don’t want to be under the jackboot of the Islamic Republic of Iran”.  He further remarked that “we have been in Iraq to do two things:  to defeat the caliphate, which we are now complete with, to continue our effort to make sure that ISIS doesn’t arise again and pose risk to the American people; and second, we’re working to help build out Prime Minister Kadhimi and his team so that they can be free, independent and sovereign in exactly the way the Iraqi people are demanding”.

The State Department confirmed that the U.S. had “renewed the sanctions waiver for Iraq to engage in financial transactions related to the import of electricity from Iran” for 45 days. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo subsequently explained that “we’ve made clear there were higher expectations for progress with Iraqis, in this case, mostly energy from a dollar perspective… where we said, ‘OK, we’ll give you this waiver, but you must invest, you must begin to create systems and processes so that you will become more free, more independent from Iranian energy’”. “We’ve made real progress there over the last 20-21 months, there’s obviously more work to do… We will, again, evaluate whether Iraq has made sufficient progress, and we’ll try to get the balance just right then as well”, Pompeo added.

CENTCOM Commander Kenneth McKenzie discussed­ what he termed Iran’s “aspirational goal to eject the U.S. from Iraq”, stating: “One of the reasons the Iranian regime paused its attacks against us was based on the hope that we would be asked to leave Iraq through the government of Iraq’s political process. And despite intense pressure from Iran’s supporters and allies in Iraq, the government of Iraq has clearly indicated it wants to maintain its partnership with U.S. and coalition forces as we continue and finish the fight against ISIS”.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi’s office reported a call with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, with the two discussing “bilateral relations, developments in the region and future cooperation between Iran and the [Counter-ISIS] Coalition in the light of Iraq’s growing counter-terrorism capabilities”.

The Iraqi defence minister visited Tehran and met with senior Iranian officials. Iranian Defence Minister Amir Hatami told his counterpart that Iran “is prepared to strengthen Iraq’s defence power and meet the needs of Iraqi armed forces”. He also argued that “achieving stability and peace in the region would be impossible with the presence of extra-regional forces”. In turn, the Iraqi minister maintained that his visit aimed “to strengthen and enhance the bilateral relations and get acquainted with Iran’s scientific and technological achievements and experiences in the defence industry”. He also thanked Iran for “advisory and arms assistance in the battle against the ISIS terrorist group”, while voicing interest to “expand interaction with Iran in order to increase the capabilities of… [Iraqis] armed forces with the purpose of eradicating the remaining terrorist groups”.

The Iranian Law Enforcement Force reported a clash between Iranian guards and “armed counter-revolutionary elements” in north-western Iran, which caused three fatalities and two injuries. The following day, the IRGC announced that it had “targeted the positions of the counter-revolutionary terrorist groups on the other side of the north-western borders… inflicting heavy losses and casualties”.

Facebook announced that it had “removed twelve Facebook accounts, two Pages and 307 Instagram accounts linked to individuals associated with EITRC, a Tehran-based IT company. This activity originated in Iran and targeted primarily Israel, and also Iraq”.

The U.S. Treasury Department designated “five Iranian entities for attempting to influence elections in the U.S.”, including the IRGC and Quds Force. The U.S. additionally designated Iran’s ambassador to Iraq, asserting that he had “helped direct a variety of IRGC-QF activities in Iraq for many years, including training and providing support for Iraqi militia groups and facilitating large-scale financial transactions involving the IRGC-QF”. The Iranian Foreign Ministry subsequently sanctioned the U.S. ambassador to Baghdad and two other U.S. diplomats in Iraq. 

The U.S. Justice Department announced that Washington had “seized… two websites that were unlawfully utilized by Kataib Hizbollah”.

The U.S. ambassador to the UN told the Security Council that “Iran continues to support local militias, in violation of Iraq’s sovereignty and Resolution 2522”. She further argued that “these militias are responsible for targeting and murdering peaceful Iraqi protestors, civil society activists and members of the media. Iranian-backed militias continue to target U.S. and other diplomatic facilities, placing American diplomats and Iraqi civilians in harm and jeopardising the ability of the U.S. to fully assist the Iraqi government and people”.

The U.S. State Department denounced “the massacre of innocent civilians by Iran-backed militias in Salah al-Din governorate. This occurred within hours of an attack by Iran-backed militias on the Kurdistan Democratic Party’s branch office in Baghdad”. “The government of Iraq needs to immediately exert control over the Iran-backed militias who are lawlessly attacking religious and ethnic minorities, peaceful protesters and activists, political party headquarters and diplomatic missions”, said a spokesperson, who further warned that “the actions of these groups are preventing the international community from helping Iraq and are leading Iraq towards sectarian violence and instability”.

Iran’s central bank chief announced that Tehran and Baghdad had “reached good agreements to release the financial resources of the central bank [held in Iraq] and use it to secure the import of essential goods” to Iran.

Media reports citing the Iraqi military indicated that “a roadside bomb targeted a convoy that was transporting equipment for the U.S.-led coalition, damaging one vehicle”.

The “Coordinating Body of the Iraqi Resistance” made up of Iraqi militias announced “the cessation of its operations against foreign, especially American forces and interests in Iraq”. A spokesperson for Kataib Hizbollah maintained that “the truce came after major personalities intervened and mediated in order to persuade these factions to stop the bombing operations until the end of the American election”. He also emphasised that “if America insists on staying and doesn’t respect the parliament’s decision then the factions will use all the weapons at their disposal”. Reacting to the announcement, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on October 14 remarked that “we are happy that the Iraqis are doing more to provide increased security for our team on the ground there”, adding: “Our mission is clear. We’ve been there to try and help build out a sovereign, independent, free Iraq capable – with a capable economy, capable set of resources. It’s what the Iraqi people want, and I think the Iraqi people have come to understand that the malign activity that the Iranians are engaged in, including through the proxy forces… I think the Iraqi people understand who’s the force for good in the region”.

Two rockets landed near Baghdad International Airport. Later in the day, two more rockets fell near the Green Zone. No casualties were reported in either incident.

According to the Iraqi Foreign Ministry, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called his Iraqi counterpart to discuss, inter alia, “the U.S. administration’s initial decision to withdraw the embassy from Baghdad”. The Iraqi foreign minister “expressed concern about this decision”, arguing that it “may lead to results that are not in the interest of the Iraqi people”. He further “confirmed that the Iraqi government has taken a number of security, organisational, political and diplomatic measures to stop the attacks on the Green Zone and the airport, and there will be tangible positive results in the near future”.

A senior U.S. diplomat asserted that “we can’t tolerate the threats to our people, our men and women serving abroad. And we will not hesitate to take action when we deem it necessary to keep our personnel safe”. He further posited that “the single biggest problem in Iraq is the Iranian-backed militias that are undermining stability there and attacking the U.S... These groups continue to launch rockets at our embassy, attack American and other diplomats, and threaten law and order in Iraq in general”. “We look forward to continuing to work with our Iraqi partners to keep our personnel at our facilities safe”, the official also noted.