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Falko Ernst

Senior Analyst, Mexico

Crisis Group Role

Falko joined Crisis Group in July 2018 as Senior Analyst for Mexico. He is responsible for conducting research on the country's lethal conflict and the challenges the incoming president faces, particularly as concerns the country's many regional conflict settings and intra-institutional realities that underpin corruption and collusion by state actors. He provides field-based insights and recommendations, through reports and contributions to media, as to how these should be factored to make for sound security policy.

Areas of Expertise

  • Non-state armed groups
  • Organised crime
  • Criminal governance
  • Corruption
  • Latin America
  • Mexico

Professional Background

Falko has worked on criminal governance, organised crime-state-collusion, and new forms of conflict in Mexico and Latin America since 2010. As a PhD researcher in sociology at the University of Essex (UK), he lived in organised crime-controlled communities in Mexico. He went on to become a freelance researcher and author based in Mexico City, collaborating with Crisis Group, the Ford Foundation, the London School of Economics, and national and international media.

Prior to this, he worked as a research assistant in Germany's federal parliament in Berlin, and completed a masters degree in Latin American area studies at the University of Passau, Germany.
 

In The News

20 Apr 2020
But in Mexico, armed clashes between rival crime factions continued throughout March and early April, and 2,585 homicides were registered last month alone. The Guardian

Falko Ernst

Senior Analyst, Mexico
14 Apr 2020
These [armed] groups [in Mexico] are trying to be seen as catering materially and providing a notion of security in places where they are also directly preying on the population [...]. Washington Post

Falko Ernst

Senior Analyst, Mexico
3 Apr 2020
It’s business as usual [for drug cartels in Mexico] with a risk of further escalation, especially if at some point the armed forces are called away for pandemic control. The Guardian

Falko Ernst

Senior Analyst, Mexico
7 Jan 2020
[In Mexico,] under active conflict & criminal control, basic state functions like gathering crime statistics, let alone searching for disappeared, are impossible. Twitter

Falko Ernst

Senior Analyst, Mexico
6 Jun 2019
Any blow to the Mexican economy will pour oil into the fire of conflict, accentuating reasons for people to flee, and undermining the deterrence effect of President Trump's anti-migratory policy. Twitter

Falko Ernst

Senior Analyst, Mexico

Latest Updates

Picking Up the Pieces after Mexico’s Criminal Siege

Shocking pictures from Culiacán show a criminal organisation forcing the Mexican state into submission. In this Q&A, Crisis Group Senior Analyst Falko Ernst explains why the mayhem should compel the government to revisit its security paradigm.

Also available in Español

Mexico’s Hydra-headed Crime War

It may seem that Mexico’s crime war, which has left over 100,000 dead in its wake, could not get any worse. But interviews with gunmen in deadly Tierra Caliente show that it can, as criminal organisations break into smaller and smaller parts, driving up the death toll.

Also available in Español

Mexico’s New Neutrality in the Venezuela Crisis

Bucking the U.S. and several large and influential Latin American states, Mexico has not recognised Juan Guaidó’s claim on Venezuela’s presidency, and has instead argued for negotiations to end the country’s crisis. As Crisis Group’s Senior Mexico Analyst Falko Ernst explains, this position is rooted in a new Mexican foreign policy doctrine.

Also available in Español
Q&A / Latin America & Caribbean

Mexico’s New President Squares Up to High Hopes for Peace

On 1 December, Andrés Manuel López Obrador will assume Mexico’s presidency. He won pledging to end a drug war that has killed tens of thousands. But, as Crisis Group’s Mexico Senior Analyst Falko Ernst argues, he faces formidable challenges that will make it hard for him to uphold his promises.

Also available in Español