南苏丹:联合州局势动荡加剧
南苏丹:联合州局势动荡加剧
Table of Contents
  1. Executive Summary
Report 179 / Africa

南苏丹:联合州局势动荡加剧

  • Share
  • Save
  • Print
  • Download PDF Full Report

执行概要总结

在南苏丹,没有哪个州像联合州一样面临如此众多的挑战。在这些挑战中,有些是这个新生共和国境内普遍存在的;有些是联合州独有的。联合州周边边界众多,面临纷杂的政治、社会、经济和安全困境,为暴乱埋下潜在伏笔。有些问题是多年痼疾,而有些问题则由近来“旧”苏丹的分裂衍生而来,进一步加剧了该国的政治动荡和资源压力。最近爆发的武装叛乱活动使该州成为了关注的焦点,凸显出内部的裂痕和暗涌的仇怨。但州的分裂问题远比叛乱深远。治理危机——加上其他全国性的问题——加剧了政治对立,播下仇恨和不满的种子。 边界纠纷、跨境争端、经济孤立、发展迟缓和仍然薄弱的南北关系同样加剧着政治动荡。在独立后迅速演变的政治环境中,这些因素互相掺杂,使问题更为错综复杂。为了让这个新生的共和国发挥其全部潜力,朱巴及其国际伙伴必须集中精力和资源,着手解决联合州等地的动荡根源。

2005年以来,朱巴和国际社会关注的主要焦点一度集中在全国性问题上,包括终结内战的《全面和平协议》的实施、动荡不定的南北政治关系、使得南方独立的全民公决以及旨在与喀土穆建立超越分治的更有建设性关系的谈判。南方人同样放下其他冤仇和期望,为实现独立这一共同目标而携手努力。而现在,焦点转移到了潜在的国内政治、安全、社会和经济稳定议程上。没有哪个州像联合州一样面临如此复杂的挑战。

联合州位于北南边界,境内拥有南苏丹大部分已探明的石油矿藏,是一个关系到该国经济命脉的战略要地。由于富含地下资源,该州在苏丹内战中是双方争夺的焦点;国家军队、边境雇佣军、南部叛军和本地努尔(Nuer)部族互相混战,持续二十年的冲突摧残着这里的人民、土地和社会建构。战争的创伤和暗地的效忠并未消失,历史遗留问题影响着当今的政治和稳定。

 

联合州的政治深度分化,其影响甚至越过州界,扩散到其他州。许多州的公民都憎恨当地政府,但这种仇恨在联合州尤为明显和普遍。该州的政治纷争可部分归结于整个国家的政治形势,漫长的分裂战争遗留的世仇,以及民族身份和民族竞争等根本性   问题。新的政治局面出现后,近年的联盟是否能够维系依然未见分晓。很多人高度寄望南苏丹的独立能够为本提乌(以及国都朱巴)出现民主程度和透明程度更高的新政府铺平道路,但这些希望都建立在联合州发生根本性的变化上。

2010至2011年间,南苏丹爆发了一系列的武装    叛乱,其中几次就在联合州。虽然有些叛乱被认为不过是政治投机,但叛乱迫使人们关注地方增长的宿怨,这些怨仇在本提乌十分明显。在安全政策上和不完善的平叛策略上的分歧,凸显出与整编军队时相似的困境。平叛对策前后不一,导致了复杂的结果,有时反而引发更多暴乱,加剧社群间的仇恨情绪,或妨碍其他招安措施。北方对此类组织的支持具有强烈的煽动性,必须停止。但外部的颠覆企图仍既是局势恶化的催化剂,也是局势恶化的根源之一。要避免未来出现更多叛乱,必须对安全领域和法治制度进行持续的改革,必须营造政治空间,并建立更为稳定的南北关系。

与此同时,边界争端和跨境对峙仍然存在。虽然南北边界现在已是国界,但这一边界尚未正式划分,在一些关键区域(包括联合州),武装对峙达到危险的程度。近年来,北方的米塞里亚游牧民向联合州的季节性迁徙已被中断,在本已紧张的边界沿线引发了更多的暴乱和担忧。由于缺少迁徙安排协定和南北安全公约,未来几季的局势仍然充满很大的不确定性。同样,由于内部边界尚未划定,联合州和其他许多州的内部族群之间关系紧张。

随着《全面和平协议》时期在混乱中结束,苏丹一分为二,北部地区混乱不堪,协调两个苏丹之间关系的协定缺失,加剧了地区动荡,也令各类问题得不到妥善解决。成千上万的南方人从北方回到    家乡,纵然州努力容纳,他们的前途始终不明。喀土穆对南北之间的交通线实施封锁,造成供应链中断,对已经十分孤立的首都造成经济冲击。邻近的南科尔多凡州爆发战争,进一步破坏跨境迁徙和贸易,延长南北之间的紧张关系,并驱使难民涌向州,他们当中不少人急需紧急照料。

最后,资源问题引发动荡,并将继续决定该州在独立后的政治、社会和经济状况。石油一直是国民经济的驱动力和该州收入的来源。但由于缺乏确凿证据证明石油对发展带来的效益,石油收入被滥用的指控广泛散播,加上开采活动对社会和环境的影响持续存在,州当局对于石油带来的影响是好是坏未有定断。石油产业应该承担更大责任的共识将激发变革,从而可以此为契机重新审核石油合同和作业标准;并可能会吸引新的投资。虽然石油产量日趋下降,当地未来稳定与否将主要取决于行业管理以及州、石油公司和族群之间的关系。大规模的土地收购同样引发争议,引起人们对监管不力的关注。新的商业投资的潜力将使得土地政策问题日益突出。

联合州石油产业发展过程中的惨痛教训表明,要保护本地居民权益,严格的监管和政府监督至关重要。同时,盗窃家畜的暴力行为严重损害该州许多牧民的利益,经常引发与邻近的瓦拉布州和湖泊州丁卡族(Dinka)牧民之间的冲突。

随着南苏丹的独立,原本搁置的问题和仇怨将逐渐显现出来,进一步动摇原本已经脆弱的平衡。很多人寄望于7月9日独立日,希望以这个特殊的日子为界,告别过去的问题、不公和分裂。但解决联合州的这些错综复杂的问题绝非易事。

朱巴/内罗毕/布鲁塞尔,2011年10月17日

Executive Summary

Unity state confronts a set of challenges unparalleled in South Sudan. Some exemplify concerns that register across the emerging republic; others are unique to the state. Situated abreast multiple frontiers, its political, social, economic and security dilemmas make for a perfect storm. Some have festered for years, while more recent developments – prompted by the partition of the “old” Sudan – have exacerbated instability and intensified resource pressure. Recent rebel militia activity has drawn considerable attention to the state, highlighting internal fractures and latent grievances. But the fault lines in Unity run deeper than the rebellions. A governance crisis – with a national subtext – has polarised state politics and sown seeds of discontent. Territorial disputes, cross-border tensions, economic isolation, development deficits and a still tenuous North-South relationship also fuel instability, each one compounding the next amid a rapidly evolving post-independence environment. Juba, and its international partners, must marshal attention and resources toward the fundamental sources of instability in places like Unity if the emerging Republic is to realise its full potential.

Since 2005, the lion’s share of Juba’s – and international – attention was focused on national issues: implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended the civil war, volatile North-South politics, the referendum that brought about Southern independence and negotiations toward a constructive relationship with Khartoum beyond partition. Southerners likewise put the unifying goal of independence ahead of other grievances and aspirations. Now focus is shifting to the latent political, security, social and economic stabilisation agenda at home. Nowhere are the challenges deferred more evident than in Unity state.

Situated along the North-South border and atop much of the South’s known oil deposits, Unity is a strategic territory and a primary source of the country’s economic lifeblood. Its subterranean resources made it a centrepiece in Sudan’s civil war; its people, land, and social fabric were devastated by two decades of conflict that pitted national forces, border-area proxies, Southern rebels and its own ethnic Nuer clans against one another. As both wounds and veiled allegiances remain, the legacies of this era continue to influence the politics, and instability, of the present.

Politics in Unity are deeply polarised, and the reverberations are felt well beyond state boundaries. Citizens in many states harbour grievances about their local governments, but resentment is particularly palpable and widespread in Unity. The dispute at the heart of the state’s body politic is partly linked to broader national politics, the unreconciled legacies of a long and divisive war, and fundamental questions of identity and ethnic competition. As new political realities emerge, it remains to be seen whether the alliances of the recent past will endure. Many have high hopes that independence will pave the way for a new, more democratic and transparent administration in Bentiu (as well as in the national capital, Juba), but those hopes are conditioned on fundamental changes taking place in the state.

A series of armed rebellions emerged in the South in 2010-2011, several in Unity. Though sometimes dismissed as mere armed opportunism, they have together drawn attention to more endemic grievances, some of which are manifest in Bentiu. Divisions over security policy and a flawed counter-insurgency strategy highlighted a familiar dilemma of army integration. An inconsistent response has yielded mixed results, sometimes generating more violence, fuelling community grievances, or hampering efforts to bring other rebels back into the fold. Northern support for such groups is highly inflammatory and must cease, but external subversion remains an exacerbating agent as much as a root cause. A demonstrable commitment to reforms in the security sector and rule-of-law institutions, an opening of political space, as well as a more stable North-South relationship will be necessary to discourage future rebellions.

Meanwhile, boundary disputes and cross-border tensions persist. The North-South border is now an international boundary, but it is not yet demarcated and critical sections – including in Unity – remain dangerously militarised. The seasonal migration of nomadic Misseriya cattle-herders to Unity has been interrupted in recent years, generating violence and anxiety along the already tense border. In the absence of negotiated migratory arrangements and implementation of a North-South security pact, there remains considerable uncertainty as to what the coming seasons hold. Likewise, still undefined internal boundaries fuel inter-communal tensions inside Unity state and many others.

A tumultuous end of the CPA era, partition of the country, domestic turmoil in the North, and the absence of arrangements to govern the future relationship between the two Sudans have compounded instability and left questions unanswered. Tens of thousands of Southerners returned from the North to their places of origin, their future uncertain as the state struggles to absorb them. A Khartoum-imposed blockade of North-South transit routes has choked supply chains and caused economic shock in an already isolated state capital. The outbreak of war in neighbouring Southern Kordofan further undermines cross-border movement and trade, protracts North-South tension and has driven refugees into Unity, many of whom need emergency services.

Finally, resources have driven instability and will continue to shape the political, social and economic character of the state in the independence era. Oil has fuelled the national economy and generated state revenue. But Unity constituents remain undecided about its net effect, as tangible development gains are lacking, allegations of oil revenue misuse are widespread, and the social and environmental consequences of extraction persist. The assumption of greater oil sector responsibility will bring changes and an opportunity to revisit contracts and operating standards; it may also prompt new investment. Though production is in decline, industry management and the relationship between state, oil companies and community will be a key determinant of future stability. Large-scale land acquisitions have also generated controversy and drawn attention to inadequate regulation. The potential for new commercial investment will force land policy issues to the fore.

The brutal lessons of oil sector development in Unity illustrate that rigorous regulation and government oversight are necessary to protect the rights and interests of local populations. Meanwhile, violent cattle raiding afflicts many of the state’s agro-pastoralists, often stoking disputes with ethnic Dinka communities in neighbouring Warrap and Lakes States.

Now that independence has been achieved, the challenges and grievances deferred will increasingly surface in what is already a fragile environment. Many aspire to use the 9th of July – independence day – to make a break with the troubles, injustices, and divides of the past. But untangling Unity’s web of intersecting challenges will prove no easy task.

Juba/Nairobi/Brussels, 17 October 2011


 

Subscribe to Crisis Group’s Email Updates

Receive the best source of conflict analysis right in your inbox.