Briefing / Africa 3 minutes

津巴布韦:等待未来

概述

津巴布韦的非洲民族联盟-爱国阵线(ZANU-PF)在2013年7月的选举中获胜,但这并没能给穆加贝总统带来广泛认同的合法性,没能为挽救经济提供基础,也没能使津巴布韦的对外关系正常化。一年后,这个国家面临诸多社会和经济问题,它们是根本性执政失败的产物,而让国家几近瘫痪的执政党内继任危机无疑是雪上加霜。非洲民族联盟-爱国阵线和争取民主变革运动(MDC-T)都卷入了严重的内部权力斗争,无暇应对社会和经济结构受到的侵蚀。津巴布韦是个入不敷出、日益衰颓的国家,它的政治是零和游戏,制度千疮百孔,曾经充满活力的经济也奄奄一息。政治精英阶层需要进行一场深刻的文化变革,并从服务于党派或个人利益转而致力于国家利益。

90岁的穆加贝虽然明显能力日益不济,却没有透露出一丝想要离职的迹象。他党派内的继任之争看上去是副总统穆朱鲁和司法部长姆南加古瓦之间的较量,实际上的情况则要复杂得多。公开的斗争已经激化,以令人不安的恐吓和暴力为典型手段。穆加贝管理这一矛盾的能力已经减弱,而在12月国民议会召开前,又将经受严峻考验。津巴布韦第一夫人格雷斯.穆加贝被提升为非洲民族联盟—爱国阵线妇女联盟的领导人,这使得继任斗争的形势进一步复杂化。

在过去一年里,主要经济部门收缩,政府几乎难以支付工资或者提供基本服务。如果得不到大笔预算援助,政府就无法兑现选举承诺。同中国签订的改善基础设施的协议能稍作缓解,但不能解决燃眉之急。东方和西方国家提供的国际援助将有助于最大限度地提升经济恢复的可能性。但是,由于严重的资金流动困难,政策的前后不一致,腐败和管理失误,可行方案有限。要促进可持续的、包容性的发展,就需要进行有力度的改革。

津巴布韦政府和反对派都无法拿出一个能获得全国支持的计划。非洲民族联盟—爱国阵线提出的“津巴布韦可持续的社会经济转型规划”不过是由平民主义的选举承诺加凭空妄想所构成。本已不堪重负的纳税人又遭政府进一步压榨,结果财政收益有限却引发了民怨。争取民主变革运动和其它反对党则已被排挤到一边。它们的国际声望也一落千丈。各反对派制定共同纲领的可能性很小,为国家前途而展开包容性的全国性对话也不太可能。争取民主变革运动自2007年以来首次提出大规模抗议是切实可行的方案,但根据过去的表现推测,非洲民族联盟—爱国阵线会在必要时再次派出安全部队镇压。

非洲民族联盟—爱国阵线的选举胜利为国内和解和建立国际友好关系创造了机会。在津巴布韦政府探索筹款办法之际,国际金融机构与其有所接触,尽管是试探性的。捐赠国必须在兑现同津巴布韦政府重建关系的承诺同时,支持津巴布韦改善执政和解决民主化的不足,并在两方面取得平衡。由于捐赠国并不确定政府是否决心推进未实施的改革、实施新宪法和推进法制,对其政策充满担忧,而且对政权继任感到焦虑,双方的信任受到了影响。非洲民族联盟—爱国阵线中的一些人现在承认,他们需要改弦更张。穆加贝2014年8月接过南部非洲发展共同体(SADC)主席的职务,并将从2015年初开始担任非洲联盟(AU)的主席。这为他保住自己的一些良好政绩提供了前所未有的平台,但他不太可能会把这当作缓和关系的契机。

 

为避免长期的不确定性和可能出现的危机,非洲民族联盟—爱国阵线应当:

  • 在12月的大会上最终决定穆加贝总统一旦丧失执政能力或不在2018年寻求连任,该由谁来继位;
  • 寻求同国内和国际支持者建立互信与合作,方法是(1)同反对派和公民社会进行包容性的全国对话,讨论政治、社会和经济改革;(2)在诸如本土化、土地改革、法制和反腐败等重要政策领域讲明立场并采取行动;以及 
  • 惩罚恐吓选民、选举造假和从事其它不法行为的党员。

为建立公信力,政治反对派应该:

  • 同公民社会联合建立协商机制,以在各个政治派别中就优先改革事项,尤其是经济和执政问题,谋求共识;以及
  • 本着着眼未来的目的总结2013年选举的不足之处,以期解决2018年选举预计会出现的问题(例如,选民名册,选举法修正案中的问题)。

南部非洲发展共同体和非洲联盟应当:

  • 鼓励津巴布韦解决这两个组织在各自的2013年观察小组报告中指出的同选举有关的担忧。

中国应当:

  • 鼓励津巴布韦政府促进政治包容和政策一致性,以实现经济复苏。

对津巴布韦采取制裁和其它措施的国家(例如欧盟、美国和澳大利亚)应提倡一种连贯立场,该立场:

  • 说明津巴布韦政府需采取哪些措施以加快解除剩下的制裁;
  • 依据经济改革和执政改革的成效,整合再接触和发展援助;
     
  • 采取具体行动巩固独立司法、人权和选举机构等支撑民主的制度,并支持公民社会监督和保护宪法权利的能力。

布鲁塞尔/约翰内斯堡,2014年9月29日

I. Overview

The July 2013 election victory of the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) failed to secure broad-based legitimacy for President Robert Mugabe, provide a foundation for fixing the economy, or normalise external relations. A year on, the country faces multiple social and economic problems, spawned by endemic governance failures and compounded by a debilitating ruling party succession crisis. Both ZANU-PF and the Movement for Democratic Change-Tsvangirai (MDC-T) are embroiled in major internal power struggles that distract from addressing the corrosion of the social and economic fabric. Zimbabwe is an insolvent and failing state, its politics zero sum, its institutions hollowing out, and its once vibrant economy moribund. A major culture change is needed among political elites, as well as commitment to national as opposed to partisan and personal interests.

Despite visibly waning capacities, 90-year-old Robert Mugabe shows no sign of wanting to leave office. The succession battle within his party is presented as a two-way race between Vice President Joice Mujuru and Justice Minister Emmerson Mna­n­gagwa, but the reality is more complex. Public battles have intensified, with intimidation and violence a disquieting feature. Mugabe’s diminished ability to manage this discord will be severely tested ahead of its December National People’s Congress. The elevation of First Lady Grace Mugabe to head ZANU-PF’s women’s league has complicated succession dynamics further.

Key economic sectors contracted in the past year and the government struggles to pay wages and provide basic services. Without major budgetary support it cannot deliver on election promises. Deals with China to improve infrastructure provide some respite, but will not resolve immediate challenges. International support from both East and West would help to maximise recovery prospects. Options are limited by acute liquidity constraints, policy incoherence, corruption and mismanagement. Vigorous reforms are needed to foster sustainable, inclusive growth.

Neither the government, nor the opposition has a plan the country is willing to rally behind. ZANU-PF’s Zimbabwe Agenda for Sustainable Socio-Economic Transformation (ZimAsset) is predicated on populist election promises and wishful thinking. The government has squeezed the beleaguered tax base further, securing limited fiscal remedy and generating resentment. The MDC-T and other opposition parties are sidelined. Their cachet with international players has been severely dented. Prospects for a common opposition agenda are remote, as is any chance of inclusive national dialogue to map the way forward. For the first time since 2007, the MDC-T is suggesting mass protest is a real option, but if past performance is any indicator, ZANU-PF will redeploy security forces when required.

ZANU-PF’s election victory created opportunities for domestic and international rapprochement. International financial institutions are engaging, albeit tentatively, as the government explores financing options. Donors must balance commitments to rebuilding relations with the government, with support for improved governance and tackling democratic deficits. Trust is affected by uncertainties around unimplemented reforms and commitment to the new constitution and the rule of law, concerns about policies, and anxieties around succession. Some in ZANU-PF now admit that a new tack is required. Mugabe took over as chair of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) in August 2014 and will chair the African Union (AU) from early 2015. This offers an unprecedented platform to secure some positive aspects of his legacy, though he is unlikely to use this as an opportunity for rapprochement.

To avoid prolonged uncertainty and possible crisis, ZANU-PF should:

  • decide conclusively at its December congress who will replace President Mugabe were he to be incapacitated or to decide not to seek re-election in 2018;
     
  • seek to rebuild trust and collaborations with domestic and international constituencies by (i) holding an inclusive national dialogue with the opposition and civil society on political, social and economic reforms; and (ii) clarify and act on key policy areas, eg, indigenisation, land reform and the rule of law, as well as anti-corruption initiatives; and
     
  • discipline members who engage in voter intimidation, fraud or other offences.

The political opposition, needing to reestablish its credibility, should:

  • establish a consultative mechanism, in conjunction with civil society, that seeks consensus and dialogue across the political spectrum on priority – in particular economic and governance – reforms; and
     
  • review 2013 election flaws through a forward-looking agenda that addresses major concerns projected for the 2018 polls (ie, voters roll and anomalies in electoral legislative amendments).

The SADC and AU should:

  • encourage Zimbabwe to address election-related concerns identified in their respective 2013 observation mission reports.

China should:

  • encourage Zimbabwe’s government to promote political inclusiveness and policy coherence in efforts to resuscitate the economy.

Countries implementing sanctions and other measures against Zimbabwe
(ie, the EU, U.S. and Australia) should promote a coherent position that:

  • clarifies what measures the government should take to expedite removal of remaining sanctions;
     
  • consolidates re-engagement and development support contingent on progress with economic and governance reforms;
     
  • takes visible steps to strengthen democracy-supporting institutions, including an independent judiciary and human rights and election institutions, as well as support civil society’s capacity to monitor and protect constitutional rights.

Johannesburg/Brussels, 29 September 2014

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