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菲律宾的困境：如何管控南海紧张局势
菲律宾的困境：如何管控南海紧张局势
Table of Contents
  1. Principal Findings
  2. Executive Summary
  3. Introduction
  4. Reefs and Ruptures
    1. The Philippine Claim over Time
    2. The 2016 Arbitration Award
  5. Enter Duterte
    1. The Pivot to China
    2. A Quiet Sea?
    3. Geopolitics Come Back to the Fore
  6. Manila’s Approach to Foreign Policy under Duterte: Pillars and Tensions
    1. The President
    2. The Diplomats
    3. The Military
    4. Other Security Actors
    5. Political and Economic Elites
    6. Public Opinion
  7. Substantive Issues
    1. Territorial Disputes
      1. Scarborough Shoal
      2. The Spratlys
    2. Declining Fish Stocks
    3. Oil and Gas
  8. Beyond the Status Quo: Options for a Maritime State
    1. Dealing with Dilemmas
    2. Risk Management Mechanisms
    3. Using Minilaterals to Fill Governance Gaps
    4. Calibrate the Code of Conduct
    5. Keeping China in the Loop
  9. Conclusion
  10. Appendix A: Map of the South China Sea
  11. Appendix B: Map of the Spratly Islands
  12. Appendix C: Philippine Presidents and the South China Sea (since 1998)
  13. Appendix D: Recommendations
A Philippine coast guard ship (R) sails past a Chinese coastguard ship during an joint search and rescue exercise between Philippine and US coastguards near Scarborough shoal, in the South China Sea on 14 May 2019. Ted Aljibe / AFP
Report 316 / Asia

菲律宾的困境：如何管控南海紧张局势

在北京和华盛顿之间的战略竞争大背景下，中国与菲律宾之间的海洋争端正在不断升温。 为了将紧张局势控制在沸点以下，马尼拉应在推动南海行为准则和更广泛的区域合作两方面不断努力。