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Briefing 135 / Asia

印度尼西亚:避免亚齐的选举暴力

I. 概述

亚齐省将在4月9日举行选举,离现在还有不到两个月的时间。这次选举将产生一名省长和副省长,以及17名地区区长和副区长。尽管所有的候选人都口头承诺进行和平选举,但是从现在到选举期间发生独立的暴力行为的可能性很大。尤其是这次竞选的参选方实力相近,所以在竞选结果宣布后发生滋扰事件的可能性更大。接下来的几周,至关重要的是向亚齐省派驻尽可能多的经过培训的选举监督人员。

暴力是否会发生可能取决于好几个因素:

  • 向亚齐省派遣的选举监督人员的人数以及他们能多快抵达亚齐。尽管官方的竞选开始时间是3月22日,因为各种实际的原因,竞选运动早已展开。对选举的监督需要现在就开始,而不是在选举前几天才开始;
     
  • 警方多快能确认及逮捕2011年12月和2012年1月枪击事件中的抢手。这两次事件造成了10人死亡,其中多数为爪哇籍工人。这次枪杀事件被认为是出于政治动因;
     
  • 选举监督委员会(Panitia Pengawas Pilkada)对报道的暴力事件展开调查及迅速采取行动的能力;
     
  • 领先的候选人控制由前游击队指挥官组成的亚齐过渡委员会(Komite Pera­lihan Aceh, KPA)中的支持者的能力。

亚齐党是由前叛乱组织自由亚齐运动(Gerakan Aceh Mer­deka, GAM)的领导层创建的地方政治党。其试图让选举向自己期望的方向发展,引发了新的冲突威胁。亚齐党主要目的是使2006年12月当选省长并正在寻求第二个五年任期的阿瓦地·尤素夫(Irwandi Yusuf)下台。这样一来,阿瓦地无法利用他的省长职位来保持自己在公众的视线中,也就不能确保资金流向他的支持者或者要求安全部队的部署方式,来对选举产生影响。

为此,亚齐党以保卫亚齐省的自治和2006年亚齐治理法(Undang-Undang Pemerintahan Aceh)的完整性为借口,展开了一系列操纵法律的行为。亚齐治理法是结束针对印尼政府的自由亚齐运动30年叛乱的赫尔辛基谅解备忘录(MoU)的法律基础。亚齐党尤其对宪法法院的一项决定提出了挑战,该决定废止了治理法中的一项规定,从而使独立(非党派)候选人能角逐原定于2011年底举行的选举。基于宪法法院的这项决定,阿瓦地原本打算作为独立候选人参选,而亚齐党希望能阻止他。亚齐党控制的省议会,也拒绝通过允许独立候选人参选的选举规例(qanun),此举妨碍了地方的选举委员会制定投票的时间表。

去年12月和今年1月的一系列杀戮昭示着暴力事件发生的可能性,在加上来自雅加达的压力,选举一再被推迟。选举时间从2011年10月10日依次被推迟至:2011年11月14日,2011年12月24日,2012年2月16日,并最终定于2012年4月9日。通过最后确定的选举时间,亚齐党成功实现了其目的。阿瓦地在2012年2月8日任期到期,结束了其省长生涯。内政部任命了来自北亚齐的塔米兹·卡里姆(Tarmizi Karim)管理亚齐事务,直至选举产生新的省长。

这些对法律的操纵加深了阿瓦地和以自由亚齐运动的前“总理”马利克·马哈茂德 (Malik Mahmud)为首的亚齐党领导层之间的分歧。他们之间的公开对立始于2006年的选举。当时,阿瓦地击败马利克当选为省长。然而,他们对立的历史可以追溯到更早期存在于流亡海外和留守亚齐的两派自由亚齐运动人士之间的分歧。马利克和现在参选省长的亚齐党候选人再尼·阿卜杜拉(Zaini Abdullah)代表的是流亡海外一派的利益,而阿瓦地代表的留守亚齐一派的利益。去年12月和今年1月的枪击事件引发了人们对这两个阵营之间的更多暴力冲突将会发生的担忧。

雅加达/布鲁塞尔,2012年2月29日

Briefing 139 / Asia

印度尼西亚:亚齐旗帜引发紧张局势

A dispute over a flag in Aceh is testing the limits of autonomy, irritating Indonesia’s central government, heightening ethnic tensions, reviving a campaign for the division of the province and raising fears of violence as the 2014 national elections approach.
 

I. Overview

The decision of the Aceh provincial government to adopt the banner of the former rebel Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka, GAM) as its official provincial flag is testing the limits of autonomy, irritating Jakarta, heightening ethnic and political tensions, reviving a campaign for the division of Aceh and raising fears of violence as a national election approaches in 2014.

On 25 March 2013, the provincial legislature adopted a regulation (qanun) making the GAM’s old banner the provincial flag. It was immediately signed by Governor Zaini Abdullah. The governor and deputy governor are members of Partai Aceh, the political party set up by former rebel leaders in 2008 that also controls the legislature.

The central government, seeing the flag as a separatist symbol and thus in violation of national law, immediately raised objections and asked for changes. Partai Aceh leaders, seeing the flag as a potent tool for mass mobilisation in 2014, have refused, arguing that it cannot be a separatist symbol if GAM explicitly recognised Indonesian sovereignty as part of the Helsinki peace agreement in 2005 that ended a nearly 30-year insurgency. Partai Aceh believes that if it remains firm, Jakarta will eventually concede, as it did in 2012 over an election dispute.

Indonesian President Yudhoyono’s government is torn. On the one hand, it does not want a fight with the GAM leaders; the 2005 peace agreement is the most important achievement of a president who, in his final term, is very much concerned about his legacy. It also is unwilling to provoke GAM too far, fearful that it will return to conflict, a fear many in Aceh discount as unwarranted but one that Partai Aceh has exploited with relish. On the other hand, it does not want to be branded as anti-nationalist as the 2014 election looms, especially as some in the security forces remain convinced that GAM has not given up the goal of independence and is using democratic means to pursue it. The president and his advisers also know that if they allow the GAM flag to fly, it will have repercussions in Papua, where dozens of pro-independence activists remain jailed for flying the “Morning Star” flag of the independence movement.

GAM leaders see little to lose by standing their ground. The flag is a hugely emotive symbol, and defying Jakarta is generally a winning stance locally. Some individual members of parliament see it as a way of regaining waning popularity for failing to deliver anything substantive to their constituencies. Also, Partai Aceh took a controversial decision to partner with Gerindra, the party of former army General Prabowo Subianto, for the 2014 election. Leaders like Muzakir Manaf, deputy governor and former commander of GAM’s armed wing, may want to use the flag issue to show they have not compromised their principles by allying with a man whose human rights record is often questioned.

Within Aceh, adoption of the GAM flag has sparked protests from non-Acehnese ethnic groups in the central highlands and south west. The GAM heartland has always been along the east coast; to highlanders like the Gayo, the flag thus represents the domination of the coastal Acehnese at their expense. The issue has revived a dormant campaign for the division of Aceh into three by the creation of two new provinces, Aceh Leuser Antara (ALA) for the central highlands and Aceh Barat Selatan (ABAS) for the south west. If GAM does not back down on the flag, support for that campaign by the intelligence services is likely to rise, and with it, the probability of increased ethnic tensions.

The options for breaking the stalemate seem to be as follows: the government concedes; GAM concedes, making slight changes to the flag by adding or removing an element; GAM agrees to limits on how or where the flag can be displayed; or the dispute is taken to the Supreme Court, thereby delaying any resolution.

In the meantime, the power of the GAM machinery in Aceh continues to grow.

Jakarta /Brussels, 7 May 2013